Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time (Part 3)

[spygirl]

5 hours ago, Option5 said:

So the big Audi SUV goes at the end of the lease, lots of unloaded lease cars means values dropping. Lease costs go up to cover the losses. It's a vicious circus.

Get ready to own a house at a realistic price and you can park your cheap top of the range ex lease car on the driveway. (Because the stupid truck won't fit in the garage).

Problem is the cars tgat were leased before IR were all big German land yachts.

I want a mid size Jap car.

[roundhouse]

10 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

 

Heard on a recent Charlie (MHWC) podcast that the govt has run out of practical time to put through the renters reform bill before the GE, as it wasn't announced in the gov's recent listing of upcoming business. Via his previous guest landlord Suzanne Smith, who's in favour of the bill (!) and, it seems, fairness to tenants as well as landlords. 

Don't suppose anyone is surprised, them having left it to the final year before an election. But I feel Gove was/is sincere in wanting it to happen. 

 

[roundhouse]

Renters reform bill - Suzanne Smith, Indy Landlord, apparently tweeted/Xd about this not being listed in upcoming gov business. I don't do TwitX so can't read content but it's this one (don't know why it's embedded and also says "Nothing to see here"

Her website blog has a thread on it but not updated since March 15th

https://theindependentlandlord.com/latest-renters-reform/

[Royston]

20 hours ago, Option5 said:

So the big Audi SUV goes at the end of the lease, lots of unloaded lease cars means values dropping. Lease costs go up to cover the losses. It's a vicious circus.

Get ready to own a house at a realistic price and you can park your cheap top of the range ex lease car on the driveway. (Because the stupid truck won't fit in the garage).

I've been waiting at least 15 years to see this flood of cheap 3 year old ex lease and PCP cars to swamp the used car market.

 

Still waiting.

[One percent]

8 minutes ago, Royston said:

I've been waiting at least 15 years to see this flood of cheap 3 year old ex lease and PCP cars to swamp the used car market.

 

Still waiting.

Im convinced that they are shipped off abroad so as to keep prices artificially high. They certainly aren’t being kept on the roads here. 

[AWW]

1 hour ago, Royston said:

I've been waiting at least 15 years to see this flood of cheap 3 year old ex lease and PCP cars to swamp the used car market.

Still waiting.

They were certainly there 15 years ago, even 10 years ago.  In 2014, we bought a top-spec 2010 Golf with every option ticked. The original invoice was for more than £30k. We paid £8990 for it at a VW dealer. Average mileage, good nick. Only sold it because of the ULEZ extension.

The market has definitely changed since then, mind. If you want an ex-lease that's undergone massive depreciation, you need to be looking at things like Teslas and Audi Etrons. Everything else seems strong. I assume this is because the only forced sellers/forced handers-back are those who've bought an EV and found that it's not suitable for their use cases. The equivalent of the 3 Ds in the housing market.

[onlyme]

[Royston]

19 minutes ago, AWW said:

They were certainly there 15 years ago, even 10 years ago.  In 2014, we bought a top-spec 2010 Golf with every option ticked. The original invoice was for more than £30k. We paid £8990 for it at a VW dealer. Average mileage, good nick. Only sold it because of the ULEZ extension.

The market has definitely changed since then, mind. If you want an ex-lease that's undergone massive depreciation, you need to be looking at things like Teslas and Audi Etrons. Everything else seems strong. I assume this is because the only forced sellers/forced handers-back are those who've bought an EV and found that it's not suitable for their use cases. The equivalent of the 3 Ds in the housing market.

That was a decent enough deal, especially in light of what's happened to used car prices in recent years.

But I still say given the huge number of debt junkies that were on the never ending hamster wheel of 3 year lease/pcp deals the market should have been absolutely swamped with 3 year old cars for a long time, but I never really saw it.

I suppose the fact that pcp and lease arrangements allowed manufacturers and dealers to massively inflate the otr price for cars anyway doesn't help, if it wasn't for pcp/lease that £30k golf would have been closer to a £20k golf to begin with.

 

[Frank Hovis]

26 minutes ago, AWW said:

They were certainly there 15 years ago, even 10 years ago.  In 2014, we bought a top-spec 2010 Golf with every option ticked. The original invoice was for more than £30k. We paid £8990 for it at a VW dealer. Average mileage, good nick. Only sold it because of the ULEZ extension.

The market has definitely changed since then, mind. If you want an ex-lease that's undergone massive depreciation, you need to be looking at things like Teslas and Audi Etrons. Everything else seems strong. I assume this is because the only forced sellers/forced handers-back are those who've bought an EV and found that it's not suitable for their use cases. The equivalent of the 3 Ds in the housing market.

 

As @AWW syas, @Royston, I think you've missed it.

 

In the 2000s three or four year old cars were practically being given away (I exaggerate of course, but £6k for a three year old car was not unusual.

Since then cars have become more complex, bigger, and a lot more expensive.

People typically lease for longer than three years, my old company initially changed its (owned) work vans every three years, then four and now I have seen them aged eight years old or more.  They are keeping them going as long as they can.

 

And global car production peaked in 2017, which given the continued population explosion means more people chasing fewer and more expensive cars.

And then you have the impact of the Lockdowns which crashed car production generally, but it was already falling.

IMHO cars are going to keep becoming more expensive.

At the bottom end pre-lockdowns you could buy a reasonable car with a long MoT for £500.  That rose to £800 and is now about £1,000.  And these are twenty year old cars which are very much "end of life".

Buy now if you want one, and no I'm not a car salesman.

[onlyme]

 

[Rare Bear]

15 hours ago, roundhouse said:

Heard on a recent Charlie (MHWC) podcast that the govt has run out of practical time to put through the renters reform bill before the GE, as it wasn't announced in the gov's recent listing of upcoming business. Via his previous guest landlord Suzanne Smith, who's in favour of the bill (!) and, it seems, fairness to tenants as well as landlords. 

Don't suppose anyone is surprised, them having left it to the final year before an election. But I feel Gove was/is sincere in wanting it to happen. 

 

Gove sincere?

[spunko]

8 hours ago, Royston said:

I've been waiting at least 15 years to see this flood of cheap 3 year old ex lease and PCP cars to swamp the used car market.

 

Still waiting.

I think you will be waiting a long time now sadly, unless you want an EV....

You can get a 4 year old Jaguar I-Pace for about £20k. List price when new £80k.

https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202402246908506

Change

22/03/2024

21/03/2024

19/03/2024

05/03/2024

04/03/2024

25/02/2024

-£1,400 (-7%)

£19,049

£19,099

£19,349

£19,799

£19,849

£20,449

In fact sod that, you may as well buy new, they're giving close to 40% off.

https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202402026173164

Change

15/03/2024

13/02/2024

02/02/2024

-£8,061 (-15%)

£46,676

£51,092

£54,737

[Royston]

5 hours ago, onlyme said:

 

Gove's proposals seemed to be mainly centred on Ground Rent, introducing a cap of £250 on it I believe. 

When it comes to Leasehold the Ground Rent is minor issue anyway, I can't recall ever seeing a Leasehold property with a Ground Rent of £250.

The real issue for Leasehold properties, especially apartment blocks, is the rip off service charges with money for nothing management fees and wildly inflated costs for repairs and maintenance on top of the service charge.

[belfastchild]

7 hours ago, Royston said:

 

But I still say given the huge number of debt junkies that were on the never ending hamster wheel of 3 year lease/pcp deals the market should have been absolutely swamped with 3 year old cars for a long time, but I never really saw it.

Anecdotal but I know a few who, when the 3 years were up were given another 3 years on the same car at the same rates etc. When one complained they didnt want to be seen in the same car they were given the option of two more identical 3 years old cars with different number plates. They were 'new' to them.

Talking to dealers most of last year they had a lot of enquiries about how can I get this car for a cheaper price now the payments have gone up. You cant, its either pay up or get a smaller car. Then the people coming in asking why there were no 0% deals. There were, you just had to put down in excess of 60% off the rrp.

[AWW]

36 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

one complained they didnt want to be seen in the same car

They need therapy for their rock bottom self esteem, not a new car.

[onlyme]

[roundhouse]

8 hours ago, Rare Bear said:

Gove sincere?

Yeah, ok. But yes to sincere on the housing reforms.

 

[Royston]

3 hours ago, AWW said:

They need therapy for their rock bottom self esteem, not a new car.

I got banned from Pistonheads for saying exactly this!

[AWW]

10 hours ago, Royston said:

I got banned from Pistonheads for saying exactly this!

PH is basically Mumsnet with cars now. The journalistic content crap too.

[HousePriceMania]

12 hours ago, onlyme said:

Imagine trying to stop a boulder rolling down the 2007 peak hill.

Now imaging stopping a boulder falling down the 2022 hill....

[spygirl]

 

Co-op Bank cuts 400 jobs - one in ten of its workforce - in latest blow to the high street

• This comes after there were talks of a merger with Coventry Building Society

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13239493/Co-op-Bank-cuts-400-jobs-one-ten-workforce-latest-blow-high-street.html

[Royston]

9 minutes ago, AWW said:

PH is basically Mumsnet with cars now. The journalistic content crap too.

What gets me is you can still see some relatively spicy content on PH in terms of posters being offensive or abusive or judgemental... yet when you comment that the debt junkies in their PCP'd white Audi S-Lines are just ten bob millionaires suffering with feelings of failure and inadequacy... you get an instant permenant ban!

[spygirl]

The logn logn crash of the finsec as a source for well paying jobs and credit for houses continues.

Bolting two crap BSes together wont work, which is why theres been no merger.

Ditto NW + Virgin.

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

13 minutes ago, spygirl said:

The logn logn crash of the finsec as a source for well paying jobs and credit for houses continues.

Bolting two crap BSes together wont work, which is why theres been no merger.

Ditto NW + Virgin.

 

 

Dont worry, the red tories are on it.

 

 

[spygirl]

4 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Dont worry, the red tories are on it.

 

 

https://guidetofloatingoffshorewind.com/fixed-versus-floating-offshore-wind/#:~:text=Higher costs&text=This means floating offshore wind,and insurance costs for developers.

Higher costs

• At present the cost per MWh of floating offshore wind energy is higher than the costs for fixed offshore wind projects. This means floating offshore wind farms are reliant on price support schemes run by governments.
• One of the drivers of higher costs is the fact that floating offshore wind is a new and largely unproven technology which increases project finance and insurance costs for developers.

UK has Dgger Bank - shallow water.