Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[Calcutta]

1 minute ago, invalid said:

 

 

A thought crossed my mind earlier.

I know a IT project manager, Business analyst, senior backroom for stock trading firm, creative director, bank manager and myself. All are married and bar one, the wife also works.

We all live in very similar houses in the same location.

The houses are not much different (other than UPVC doubled glazed windows vs metal framed singled glazed) to the council house my grandparents had back in the 70s. My grandfather was a milkman and my grandmother never worked.

Progress?

 

I live in a flat roof sink estate house with 2 Ukrainians, a Romanian, a Jamaican and an old drunk. And my kids a few nights a week.

Progress indeed. And they wonder why we want the world to burn.

[Chewing Grass]

3 minutes ago, invalid said:

 

 

A thought crossed my mind earlier.

I know a IT project manager, Business analyst, senior backroom for stock trading firm, creative director, bank manager and myself. All are married and bar one, the wife also works.

We all live in very similar houses in the same location.

The houses are not much different (other than UPVC doubled glazed windows vs metal framed singled glazed) to the council house my grandparents had back in the 70s. My grandfather was a milkman and my grandmother never worked.

Progress?

 

The Chartered Engineers where I work now struggle to buy decent terraced houses in nicer areas of Manchester.

40 years ago these people were 4-5 bed detached Wilmslow/Cheshire set.

[leonardratso]

It will be ok, they will just replace those metals with russian indian/chinese metals (but with stickers over the hammer and sickle to disguise them and a massive markup).

Like all that indian diesel im burning.

Edited April 12 by leonardratso

[Chewing Grass]

2 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

I live in a flat roof sink estate house with 2 Ukrainians, a Romanian, a Jamaican and an old drunk. And my kids a few nights a week.

Progress indeed. And they wonder why we want the world to burn.

Are they all in your house, if so I commend you on you Diversity, Equity and Inclusion score as validated by Blackrock.

[Calcutta]

2 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Are they all in your house, if so I commend you on you Diversity, Equity and Inclusion score as validated by Blackrock.

Nah the house is owned by some boomer with a mortgage were paying off for him.

Occasionally the tubby African cleaner comes round, watches the telly all day then does a shit job of vacuuming the floor and fucks off.

This country is finished. I'm just enjoying the ride for now.

[Chewing Grass]

4 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

Announced the Russian sanctions a few minutes before market close. 

Metal markets closed for weekend now. 

Interesting week ahead when metals market opens ….

Gold from the US Civil War was readily laundered back in the day, you bought a hard-rock mine in the middle of nowhere, carried the loot in on a few mules over a few years and added it to 'the melt' every week.

I suspect this was also done at some mines in Wales due to sometimes miraculous production.

 

[Errol]

29 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

Breaking news.

US have just banned trading of Russian metals. Fuck. 
 

Just means that China, India etc get it all. Like the oil. It won't cost Russia any revenue at all.

[reformed nice guy]

20 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

I live in a flat roof sink estate house with 2 Ukrainians, a Romanian, a Jamaican and an old drunk. And my kids a few nights a week.

Progress indeed. And they wonder why we want the world to burn.

They are doing better than their grandparents.

Economists would count that as British intergenerational wealth improvement/creation

[Pip321]

25 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

 

This surely will only be good news for metal miners. Limiting supply - raising price? Looks like metal prices are bouncing on this ….. 🤪

Action on metals to “curb Russian President Putin’s ability to fund his war machine” Further illustrates the media are just the mouth piece of our leaders….because sanctions just don’t make sense. 

The headline (if we genuinely thought the Ruskies were evil and Ukraines the good guys…and we wanted the war to stop) would be…

“We piss about with sanctions, corruption and behind the scenes deals/trades….whilst war is fuelled to make a few people (East and West) richer and more powerful.”

Mentioned before I was awoken not by covid (I know, I know) but by the fact Germanys action to hurt Russia when the invasion of Ukraine occurred was to stop buying the much needed oil….i thought “what the fucks that about”. 

It’s like trying to win a fight by holding your own breath until you pass out.

Anyhoo….golds on a run and looks like battle lines are being drawn up. At least this time (unlike covid) I can see the wider agenda and try invest/benefit accordingly rather than be outside waving whatever coloured flag they tell me to. 

 

[AlfredTheLittle]

41 minutes ago, invalid said:

 

 

A thought crossed my mind earlier.

I know a IT project manager, Business analyst, senior backroom for stock trading firm, creative director, bank manager and myself. All are married and bar one, the wife also works.

We all live in very similar houses in the same location.

The houses are not much different (other than UPVC doubled glazed windows vs metal framed singled glazed) to the council house my grandparents had back in the 70s. My grandfather was a milkman and my grandmother never worked.

Progress?

 

I bet your grandad got up earlier than any of the people you mention and did more physical work. We all think we're clever because we sit at computers all day, but in reality what do any of these jobs produce, except more numbers for more people to pore over at their computers.

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

The Chartered Engineers where I work now struggle to buy decent terraced houses in nicer areas of Manchester.

40 years ago these people were 4-5 bed detached Wilmslow/Cheshire set.

I went and looked at a piece of land for sale in North Yorkshire last week. Was separate part of 10 acre place with a beautiful 8 bed house, surrounded by trees, completely secluded, huge circular driveway. 

Owner told me it was built in the 60s by an engineer from ICI. I thought how the fuck did an engineer afford this? It's going on the market for over 2 million, an engineer wouldn't be able to even dream of affording it.

The past is indeed a foreign country.

[Pip321]

16 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I went and looked at a piece of land for sale in North Yorkshire last week. Was separate part of 10 acre place with a beautiful 8 bed house, surrounded by trees, completely secluded, huge circular driveway. 

Owner told me it was built in the 60s by an engineer from ICI. I thought how the fuck did an engineer afford this? It's going on the market for over 2 million, an engineer wouldn't be able to even dream of affording it.

The past is indeed a foreign country.

Gets me thinking though. In 1965 I could have bought an ounce of gold for $20 now it’s almost $2400. 

House prices are mental I agree but it’s depends what we measure them in…..and I guess it isn’t necessarily the price of the house we should have the issue with but the lowering of the relative wages. The net impact however doesn’t negate the point being made though ie average Joe can’t buy a house but perhaps highlights where the issue lies. 

Couple of people have already said on this thread that over the last few days they have made more from their shares than they make in a month….and I know it doesn’t prove the point but perhaps illustrates it….wages don’t make you rich, well averages wages.

I know I left work at 50 despite a good office job and good pay. Also pay in my 50’s is the wealth creation period but I just felt I wouldn’t be paid enough for my very precious time. Work needs to be better rewarded. 

 

[goldbug9999]

16 hours ago, Royston said:

Remind me again.. how many years is it that we have we been observing this "unsustainable" "everything bubble" that's seemingly permenantly on the verge of going pop?

Nothing is going pop nominally while a $trillian every 100 days is being printed. Something Ive pointed out to countless TA merchants on twitter who have all been harping about "muh yield curve inversion" or their 1920s comparison charts predicating a depression or whatever bollocks.

Edited April 13 by goldbug9999

[Royston]

4 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

Nothing is going pop nominally while a $trillian every 100 days is being printed. Something Ive pointed out to countless TA merchants on twitter who have all been harping about "muh yield curve inversion" or their 1920s comparison charts predicating a depression or whatever bollocks.

Every time the markets do start to look like they're struggling even just little a bit it seems like some money magically appears out of thin air that is pumped into them to prevent even a minor correction from occurring.  

Edited April 13 by Royston

[honkydonkey]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/jobs/earn-salary-over-100k-but-still-feel-broke/

Our friends who live in a council house diagonal to us go on three holidays a year and have a brand new car. I had far more money as a single mum. I used to have my nails done, my hair done, regular waxes. That’s not even on my radar anymore. My last haircut I won as a prize in a raffle. I was so happy. 

Tick tock. 

Edited April 13 by honkydonkey

[Lightscribe]

9 hours ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

I bet your grandad got up earlier than any of the people you mention and did more physical work. We all think we're clever because we sit at computers all day, but in reality what do any of these jobs produce, except more numbers for more people to pore over at their computers.

It’s not really about the type of work, the job of a ‘milkman’ has now been consigned to the realms of history like so many others; typographers, Telegraphist, switchboard operators etc.

It’s a job that was taken by the 40 year disinflation cycle. Everyone’s remembers up to 80’s and gold/silver/red top milk delivered to the door along with the odd orange juice, bread etc. Cheap labour, cost cutting and supermarkets made it unviable.

Point is however these jobs were productive jobs of *the* time because people could afford a house, family and provide with them. 

Forget about ‘paying in’ to the system (as my mum and dad has always referred to) for state pension, NI etc. There was never a ‘pot’ that ship has sailed a long time ago.

It went wrong however, because tax credits came into place over jobs like that. You could no longer afford a house and family on lower paid jobs and the only option was reliance on the government. BTL and big businesses took advantage of minimum wage, tax credits and benefits and imported ever cheaper labour to do the jobs that tax credits replaced. 

Every politician since Blair has been an enemy of the state. They’ve led the country down an inescapable path and they’ve gaslighted the nation along the way. As long as house prices kept rising the plebs were placated at the expense of the country’s future.

[Lightscribe]

7 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

Nothing is going pop nominally while a $trillian every 100 days is being printed. Something Ive pointed out to countless TA merchants on twitter who have all been harping about "muh yield curve inversion" or their 1920s comparison charts predicating a depression or whatever bollocks.

You also said that central banks would never raise interest rates when I said they would on another thread in 2020. 

You don’t think these things can happen, because they haven’t happened in your lifetime.

Fact is, cycles exist, and we’re living through an inflationary one right now in which no western country is set up for because of thinking it would never happen like you did.

[Harley]

A nicely written summary of Dr McGilchrist’s work....

https://www.pricevaluepartners.com/brain-storm/

Indeed, he's a great scholarly listen if you have the rare chance.

[Harley]

3 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

Collapse / bust is coming in the stock market followed by recession and stagflation. 

Followed by massive printing and the continuing headlong journey towards the destruction of fiat*. 
 

* Maybe throw in war also. It will be really interesting to see what will happen if Trump gets back in power. TPTB will be doing everything in their power to stop this from happening though. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Bobthebuilder]

42 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

It’s not really about the type of work, the job of a ‘milkman’ has now been consigned to the realms of history like so many others; typographers, Telegraphist, switchboard operators etc.

It’s a job that was taken by the 40 year disinflation cycle. Everyone’s remembers up to 80’s and gold/silver/red top milk delivered to the door along with the odd orange juice, bread etc. Cheap labour, cost cutting and supermarkets made it unviable.

Milkmen still exist, I get milk, eggs, and butter delivered every week. Just picked mine up from the front door just now. Milk still comes in bottles that I rinse out and put back by the door.

[Harley]

31 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

1hr 18mins : TLDR

You got a brief summary PLEASE? 
 

or similar to this 

 

That would be just a snippet of the first few minutes.

Summary ex-nuances, detail, etc per the video description you can quickly read....

"David has a pretty grim outlook for the stock market. He expects stocks to fall 20-30% soon, recover before the election as the Federal Reserve returns to QE, and then, once the election is over, "drop precipitously"

Follow David at https://fipestreport.substack.com/"

I'm not bothered with numerical projections as those will be what they'll be but we are clearly in a major (above normal!) level of pre election spin (economic fakery) and one would assume the new incumbent would like to get the accumulated shite out the way asap at the start of their term.  Although making assumptions about "The Blob" is difficult given their opaque agenda and approach.

Edited April 13 by Harley

[DurhamBorn]

10 hours ago, Pip321 said:

Gets me thinking though. In 1965 I could have bought an ounce of gold for $20 now it’s almost $2400. 

House prices are mental I agree but it’s depends what we measure them in…..and I guess it isn’t necessarily the price of the house we should have the issue with but the lowering of the relative wages. The net impact however doesn’t negate the point being made though ie average Joe can’t buy a house but perhaps highlights where the issue lies. 

Couple of people have already said on this thread that over the last few days they have made more from their shares than they make in a month….and I know it doesn’t prove the point but perhaps illustrates it….wages don’t make you rich, well averages wages.

I know I left work at 50 despite a good office job and good pay. Also pay in my 50’s is the wealth creation period but I just felt I wouldn’t be paid enough for my very precious time. Work needs to be better rewarded. 

 

Indeed.I left at 49 and now is the time my portfolio would be flying higher if i was not taking from it never mind adding more from paid work.However i figured my 50s are the last years where im still in good shape and i intend to keep it that way as long as i can.Freezing of allowances also came into it.I knew i would hit them (i have) and it would just come sooner if i kept working.Work pays fine,its because the bennies and pensions are so high it feel like it does not.The reason someone on £33k a year cannot buy a house is due to bennies and immigration,they both fuel retired public sector to buy BTLs.

[Lightscribe]

33 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Milkmen still exist, I get milk, eggs, and butter delivered every week. Just picked mine up from the front door just now. Milk still comes in bottles that I rinse out and put back by the door.

Well they’ve long gone from my area as well as the depots (I should think now the majority of the nation buys their milk from the supermarket)

But can they afford a house being a ‘milkman’ now is more the point I was making. 

[Chewing Grass]

2 hours ago, honkydonkey said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/jobs/earn-salary-over-100k-but-still-feel-broke/

Our friends who live in a council house diagonal to us go on three holidays a year and have a brand new car. I had far more money as a single mum. I used to have my nails done, my hair done, regular waxes. That’s not even on my radar anymore. My last haircut I won as a prize in a raffle. I was so happy. 

Tick tock. 

That was an interesting read, the level of lifestyle delusion is impressive, the woman who regards herself as a teacher (on £4K), childless Claudia (in media), the frozen egg people. Seems Isolde principally talked to her mates for the article.

[DurhamBorn]

On the Russian metals ban,its really just the first stage in them trying build up metals companies in the west.Froneman from Sibanye has been warning western leaders that they need to assist the miners because China etc are undercutting and will end up owning all the metals for EVs etc.Nickel has been smashed and western producers underwater killing the industry.Norilsk Nickel the huge producer in Russia this is aimed at is also the worlds biggest palladium producer.Now thats not under the ban,but what will happen is they will divert more and more off exchange to China so there will be less and less palladium at spot so everyone else will end up paying more on exchange.Froneman said they wouldnt close Stillwater in the US for political reasons,even at loss making prices.He knows whats coming.Norilsks palladium production has already fallen because they could not import equipment,though that will change over time as they buy more from China etc.

This thread always said re-tooling etc would drive this inflation cycle and its proving correct.However,i did not expect it would mean two blocks emerging where it was as in the open.

Of course all these actions help destroy the value of western Fiat in the short to medium term.The long term depends on if we do develop full supply chains.

This multi polar world is insanity for ordinary people,but it suits the western elites just fine.