Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[Axeman123]

47 minutes ago, Errol said:

Following on from that: Why is Powell staying hawkish here, with all economic warning lights flashing red?

Theory: Normally that would smash gold down, which the West really needs first if they are about to start cutting rates.

(Link to article https://archive.ph/3G0ty)

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, JMD said:

Russel Napier's 21 lessons from financial history... (It's in summary form but still very good)

@DurhamBorn, Napier makes an interesting short comment at approx. 55mins where he says that international capitol that was going to China is instead now being re-routed into other EMs. Your probably already aware of this, but would be interested in your thoughts as sounds very significant.

 

 

China does not need the capital now,it has huge amounts of savings of its own,savings ratio is huge,28% if global savings last year was from the Chinese.China needs more consumption and less savings so it makes sense capital would go to other EM markets.Earnings will drive Chinese capital markets not more savings.Of course terrible news for the likes of the UK who have been monetising Chinese savings for decades.China has decided it would rather over bid for mines in Africa than have its savings inflated away.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Mandalorian said:

For balance.

Since going to bed, I have lost more than I will earn in the first 6 months of the year. 

(Nope.  Genuinely not bothered.  It all stays invested all the time.)

You think you have problems iv lost 133 massages this week.Sorry 109 ,ITV went ex massage ,24 massages there when they send me the divi/my capital back 

[Lightscribe]

Back over $2400. TA against gold doesn't work anymore, many economists haven’t got that memo yet. 

Mr.Slammy’s hammer no longer works.

[Axeman123]

3 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Mr.Slammy’s hammer no longer works.

And "worse" every time they try physical metal goes east.

[M S E Refugee]

4444kg of Silver withdrawn from Bullionvault London depository!

Edited April 16 by M S E Refugee

[Loki]

12 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

every time they try

Now they know how I feel

[Majorpain]

German govt is rather nuts at the minute.....

[HousePriceMania]

truly clown world

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

TA against gold doesn't work anymore, many economists haven’t got that memo yet. 

Eh?  My TA said hold for now but I always have for a couple of decades now and very happy I did/do.  All I have to do is buy it and sit back and watch them print!

PS:  Off to buy an essential quad bike tomorrow from me greens in other stuff.  "Essential" 'cause I do need it and because it's a DOSBODS approved budget model!

Edited April 16 by Harley

[Harley]

16 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

German govt is rather nuts at the minute.....

I had a social session with some ok and learned Germans the other week.  We got round to Brexit and I suggested it all could have been avoided with a bit of flexibility from Merkel.  Oh no, it was all our fault (it's always someone's elses fault).  Unfortunately, they have a long road to travel.

[Harley]

45 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

And "worse" every time they try physical metal goes east.

You can't short a now more open market.  Someone just buys it!

[CannonFodder]

Decided to sell most of my harmony gold. Just ran too much, will probably shoot for moon now. 

What's the hive minds view on fund DMAD DMAG DMAT ?

[Chewing Grass]

16 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

truly clown world

British Workforce Growth driven entirely by Migrants...

Now that will be low-wage, low GDP per Capita.

[Lightscribe]

No Fed rate cuts will decimate the melt up in to the melt down.

[Harley]

6 hours ago, JMD said:

Russel Napier's 21 lessons from financial history... (It's in summary form but still very good)

@DurhamBorn, Napier makes an interesting short comment at approx. 55mins where he says that international capitol that was going to China is instead now being re-routed into other EMs. Your probably already aware of this, but would be interested in your thoughts as sounds very significant.

 

 

Jump if you ever get the chance to attend these sessions.  Awesome and comforting.

Edited April 16 by Harley

[Chewing Grass]

Ooh look, speaking of Migrants driving Worforce Growth, United Kingdom GDP per capita PPP is up $300 from 2019.

Yippedy, fooking, whoop.

Over another timescale 12% in 12 years and I daren't mention static Personal Allowances and General Taxation etc.

[Errol]

1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

German govt is rather nuts at the minute.....

Indefinite stay in camps guarded by soldiers in black Hugo Boss uniforms is surely coming next.

[Loki]

9 minutes ago, Errol said:

Indefinite stay in camps guarded by soldiers in black Hugo Boss uniforms is surely coming next.

Unlikely - we beat the Nazis in 1945, because we won WW2, and things have just got better and better ever since

[Axeman123]

25 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

They’ll be banning smoking completely soon.

Wouldn't need to in 20 years or whatever, too little demand for a retailer to justify the licensing and approved non-display cabinet plus signage.

[Mandalorian]

5 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Are you recommending we do the same ?

Recommending you don't recommend anything?  Sure.

4 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

You don’t recommend dividends can we least get you to recommend that? 

They're irrelevant - as discussed previously.

[Mandalorian]

3 hours ago, Jesus Wept said:

I think a BK would be defined as anything greater than a 50% drop in the major equity markets S&P, Dow, ftse, euro stoxx, Asia et al.

In hindsight I think I will rue not moving to 100% cash the other day and waiting for all assets and equities to take a hit. (I opted to keep 20% in commodities / gold / silver / miners).

Problem is - as we saw with Covid - the margin call drop can be very short lived - a few days. 

My first ever purchase of silver was below 1000p in March 2020 - as people sold it off to cover their margins. It was sub £10 for a day. Virtually doubled within 5 months by August 2020 - whilst I sunbathed on a deserted Croatian beach ! 

 

 

Covid was a drop of about a third and that was end of the world stuff at the time.

I suspect 50% is unlikely

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

You think you have problems iv lost 133 massages this week.Sorry 109 ,ITV went ex massage ,24 massages there when they send me the divi/my capital back 

You'll have to do your own happy finishes this month.

[Loki]

Just now, Mandalorian said:

 

I suspect 50% is unlikely

[wherebee]

7 hours ago, CannonFodder said:

Clown world continues.

Yanks seem to be ahead of HMT in preparing for the new normal.

 

https://www.newsweek.com/irs-asks-americans-report-income-illegal-activities-1871446

 

Been that way for a long time; it's designed to let the authorities get criminals on tax evasion charges, which have long jail times PLUS big financial fines, without all the trouble of a criminal trial about who sold what to whom.

Tax trial: you had 2 million dollars in the Banks and a house worth 5 million, and didn't work.  What was it from?  "er....."

Nice, you owe us 20 million and 12 years in jail.  NEXT!

[Long time lurking]