Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[Noallegiance]

2 hours ago, afly said:

Interesting scheme that follows DB's more with less prediction

https://www.shareandcare.co.uk/sharers/

Youngsters living with oldies for very low rent in exchange for jobs/upkeep/company

Mentioned in todays telegraph as it seems to be getting popular in pricier parts of the country.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/property/house-share-with-pensioner-cheap-rent-social-benefits/

I can see some default family inheritors getting a bit twitchy!

An indication of the return of the old-school community back-scratching.

The opposite side of the swing-o-meter to globalisation is localisation.

[nirvana]

fuk me, those quarter sovs that were 100 notes in Jan.......are now 163 lol

https://www.royalmint.com/invest/bullion/bullion-coins/gold-coins/the-quarter-sovereign-2024-gold-bullion-coin-in-blister/

high 5 @ @M S E Refugee

[SpectrumFX]

10 minutes ago, nirvana said:

alright bruvs........anyone wanna buy any sovs? cushty

have I missed much? got bored upstairs......

We all got rich for 5 minutes on Friday. And then as quick as it had come it was gone. I missed it all I was getting very very pissed.

Other than that it's the same old stuff.

[Royston]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

He probably needs to merge Royal Mail and Parcelforce,it's daft having two companies doing essentially the same work.

Also the vehicle fleet urgently needs replaced.

As always Royal Mail had plenty of unrealised potential.

Or just cut RM loose altogether from IDS.

GLS can all he could really be interested in in terms of purchasing IDS.

[Mandalorian]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

These metals seem to be determined to go up,they could be a coiled spring.Its funny seeing the MSM almost begging for rate cuts,you suspect they are up to their neck in property leverage.They need to campaign for massive bennie and spending cuts,because without a huge cut in consumption by the none producing AND a long big ramp up in production,including energy,food,etc etc this inflation will be rising again soon enough.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/16/gold-price-surge-china-warchest-geopolitical-dystopia/

Interesting.  Use archive.ph if the paywall comes up.

[nirvana]

4 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

Use archive.ph if the paywall comes up.

this is good too https://github.com/iamadamdev/bypass-paywalls-chrome

here's a weird fukker that Ambrose custard mind you lol

Nasdaq is tanking.....shipwreck ahoy me hearties!!!!

[Mandalorian]

1 hour ago, Festival said:

 Couldn’t agree more with this. I run two portfolios one is overweight UK stocks (baccy, commodities, telcos gold etc) and the other for Mrs F is broadly invested in global equities low cost trackers. She is beating me comfortably over last 5-7 years. Both have protected capital to a greater or lesser extent compared to 60/40  over the same period, but low cost accumulating funds in US, Jap, even EU has won hands down total return wise to this point. Maybe the cycle will turn now decisively towards commodities in a second wave of inflation and I’ll keep some weighting for this but I won’t be the house on any outcome and I expect many won’t either unless they are either quite new to the investment game or have little to lose and much to gain. 

Reversion to the mean is a well known thing.  But I spot no signs of it happening yet.  If it ever does.

That would mean total return of circa 7% p.a. for the FTSE 100 and circa 10% p.a. for the S&P 500. 

Note.  That's the index as a whole.  Not shitty shares in stagnating telecoms and declining tobacco companies,

[Mandalorian]

1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

Honest question, why are RoyalMail so bad at scanning parcels or tracked letters, laziness or just a shit system

Ex public sector, state run enterprise.

The owner changed.  The mindset didn't.

[Onsamui]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Those schemes popping up are interesting,its starting.One of the best things ever for me was drinking late teens early 20s with the old fellas in the workmans club.Great laugh and taught me more than i would ever learn in school,could be great for both parties.Like you say inheritors who do very little for older family members but expect the inheritance might start to worry.

Paywall.

[nirvana]

2 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

Nope never go short.

pussy.......

Rickards has been calling collapse for at least 10 years........I think he's one of those 'gold bug-gers'

[afly]

5 minutes ago, Onsamui said:

Paywall.

https://archive.ph/BC8FP

[leonardratso]

Didnt know max wall's zombie was a gold bug.

[nirvana]

5 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

Didnt know max wall's zombie was a gold bug.

Rickards’ obsession with gold will get plenty of attention. The internet gold sites that already quote him widely will find plenty to get excited about. Others are likely to be more sniffy, especially about the lengthy discussion on a return to the gold standard.

https://earthbound.report/2014/04/03/the-death-of-money-by-james-rickards/

[DurhamBorn]

24 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

Reversion to the mean is a well known thing.  But I spot no signs of it happening yet.  If it ever does.

That would mean total return of circa 7% p.a. for the FTSE 100 and circa 10% p.a. for the S&P 500. 

Note.  That's the index as a whole.  Not shitty shares in stagnating telecoms and declining tobacco companies,

Nicotine value pool on a global basis is growing,not shrinking.BAT is a growth company.Telcos have build new networks with regulators on their throats at the same time as the big tech users of those networks get away without paying.Huge rubber band pulled right back on the sector.They could continue as poor investments for a while of course,or what tends to happen  is something changes and the reverse is quick and full of velocity.Iv sold several telcos in the last 3 years with profits of 50%,50%,27% (over a few months Verizon),89% and 100%,,,,,oh plus divs 

 

[DurhamBorn]

24 minutes ago, nirvana said:

pussy.......

Rickards has been calling collapse for at least 10 years........I think he's one of those 'gold bug-gers'

Have you cleaned up on silver?,

[Harley]

3 hours ago, baffledbyzirp said:

What is the last asset you sell when you are skint?

The Harley, just after the Les Paul!  

[Harley]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Those schemes popping up are interesting,its starting.One of the best things ever for me was drinking late teens early 20s with the old fellas in the workmans club.Great laugh and taught me more than i would ever learn in school,could be great for both parties.Like you say inheritors who do very little for older family members but expect the inheritance might start to worry.

I was going to do charity work to help lonely older folk but there were cases where the family really came for you (eg. claimed you stole money) when their parent thought more highly of you and worse, told them!

Willing all your stuff to a live in carer was apparently a thing back in the day.  We've created an annex for a live in carer and would put them on a buy in based on the more they get the longer we lived!  

Edited April 17 by Harley

[Bobthebuilder]

13 minutes ago, Harley said:

just after the Les Paul

Have you seen the prices on the new USA custom shop guitars? , enough to make your guitar gently weep.

Custom Shop - Guitar Village

 

Edited April 17 by Bobthebuilder

[janch]

Interesting hydropower stats:

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-far-worlds-largest-hydro-power

also:

When looking at hydropower’s share of total electricity production for each of these countries, then Norway comes first with a high 87.5 percent of its electricity energy mix having been accounted for by hydropower in 2022. Only Paraguay comes higher in terms of share of total electricity production, at 99.7 percent.

and:

As this chart shows, India was the sixth biggest hydropower worldwide in 2022 with approximately 175 TWh of hydropower generated that year, which accounted for 9.4 percent of the country’s electricity production.

but:

fossil fuels accounted for more than three quarters (77 percent) of India’s electricity production in 2022.

This was mostly from coal (74 percent), followed by gas (2.7 percent).

 

[Harley]

23 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Have you seen the prices on the new USA custom shop guitars? , enough to make your guitar gently weep.

Custom Shop - Guitar Village

 

Bugger, could have bought the bigger quad bike! 

.....slap, but this is DOSBODS! 

Edited April 17 by Harley

[Harley]

15 minutes ago, janch said:

Interesting hydropower stats:

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-far-worlds-largest-hydro-power

also:

When looking at hydropower’s share of total electricity production for each of these countries, then Norway comes first with a high 87.5 percent of its electricity energy mix having been accounted for by hydropower in 2022. Only Paraguay comes higher in terms of share of total electricity production, at 99.7 percent.

and:

As this chart shows, India was the sixth biggest hydropower worldwide in 2022 with approximately 175 TWh of hydropower generated that year, which accounted for 9.4 percent of the country’s electricity production.

but:

fossil fuels accounted for more than three quarters (77 percent) of India’s electricity production in 2022.

This was mostly from coal (74 percent), followed by gas (2.7 percent).

 

I'm liking my Norsk Hydro and my Norsk Hydro is liking me!  

Edited April 17 by Harley

[Harley]

Never understood expending all that energy trying to predict the big picture stuff.  I simply buy when the price is likely to go up and sell when it's likely to go down, trimming the runts before they hurt. 

It looks easy but like such things, it took a lot of time and effort.  Nevertheless, some folk say you can't time things.  I'll have a shiny new quad bike in the yard next week that begs to differ!

Now what shall I call it?  Maybe Francis (as in the traitor Francis Walsingham), who Queen Elizabeth I said in the film she would keep alive and close by to remind her of the danger she faces! 

Edited April 17 by Harley

[Harley]

4 hours ago, Festival said:

 Couldn’t agree more with this. I run two portfolios one is overweight UK stocks (baccy, commodities, telcos gold etc) and the other for Mrs F is broadly invested in global equities low cost trackers. She is beating me comfortably over last 5-7 years. Both have protected capital to a greater or lesser extent compared to 60/40  over the same period, but low cost accumulating funds in US, Jap, even EU has won hands down total return wise to this point. Maybe the cycle will turn now decisively towards commodities in a second wave of inflation and I’ll keep some weighting for this but I won’t be the house on any outcome and I expect many won’t either unless they are either quite new to the investment game or have little to lose and much to gain. 

I find it quite fascinating looking at such portfolio constructions using JustETF.

For example, I was assessing various versions of the Permanent Portfolio (PP) the other day and noted a higher reward:risk ratio for every time period with gold (per the PP) rather than using a broad commodity ETF.

That suggests a danger in (apparent) over diversification and that commodities may be a better trade than very long hold.

I'm currently assessing how to get the best ratio on the equity tranche by looking at:

. One global ETF; or

. A global developed and a global emerging market ETF in various proportions; or

. A series of regional ETFs

Back to the commodity ETFs, significant variations in the performance of the various ETFs as they are all based on not only variations in the mix of their constituents but also in their contract durations (roll, long, front, etc).

Edited April 17 by Harley

[Long time lurking]

 

[GoneDark]

40 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

The Stockmarket loves low inflation, high profit and steady growth (not too high or low).

We now have persistent ‘spiky’ inflation, profit margins are being squeezed and growth looks very shaky. We have zombie companies with massive debts and limited earnings. 

The Mag 7 are the last to go down and are going to be the final signal - “the pin that pops the whole market”. 

S&P has had a 70%  better return than the global stock market for the last 10-12 years. That’s unprecedented.

Mag7 are monopolies - and that’s coming to an end globally.

The mania has come out in the last 3 years - meme stocks, bitcoin, shorting the hedge funds, everyone ‘investing’ and making millions, housing markets. The “everything bubble”.

Only thing that hasn’t properly risen in the last few year is the emerging markets? Strange? 

Global bust on the cards - long recession / depression coming. Heralded by the stock market collapse.

 

 

And what's all of that going to do to all of that cash you will be holding?

Edited April 17 by GoneDark
Added of