Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

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well that didn’t last long…

[Mandalorian]

5 hours ago, janch said:

AJ Bell sent some interesting info on their ISA investors and their ISA millionaires.  This is the bit about shares.  My bold especially for @Mandalorian

 

Dividend reinvestment has historically been a way to supercharge returns in an ISA portfolio thanks to compounding benefits. Using dividend money to buy more shares allows an investor to increase their ownership in a stock at no extra cost. They should receive even more dividends at the next round of distributions due to their increased ownership, and the company might have even grown its dividend as well. When you repeat this cycle over the space of decades, the compounding benefits can really shine through and boost the investor’s wealth.

No shit!

If they didn't pay out the dividend you would be in the same position.

In other news, the sky is blue.

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, sancho panza said:

been waiting a long time to see this sort of headline.will be interesting to see what ebcomes of UK high sts when people stop buying £4 frappacinnos

tranactions down 6% is a big tell imho

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/05/01/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-federal-reserve-interest-rates/

Starbucks plunges £12bn as consumers cut back on costly coffee

More than $15.4bn (£12.3bn) was wiped off the value of Starbucks as trading began on Wall Street after it revealed sales fell for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic.

The coffee giant’s shares plunged by 15pc after the opening bell as its new lavender lattes and half-price deals were not enough to entice consumers.

It said net revenues fell by 2pc to $8.6bn (£6.9bn) in the first three months of 2023, as it cut its full-year revenue growth forecast to the low single digits.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/starbucks-stock-plunges-14-after-badly-missing-its-q2-earnings-estimates-134851851.html

This is Starbucks' first quarterly sales decline since 2020, when COVID shutdowns roiled the industry.

Revenue for the second quarter dropped 2% year over year to $8.6 billion. Adjusted earnings per share also came in lower, down 8% to $0.68.

Global same-store sales declined 4% from a year ago as transactions dropped 6%, which was partially offset by a 2% increase in average ticket size.

 

Telcos put prices up 7% might lose 0.5% of their customers if any.Coffee shop puts prices up 2% loses 4% of customers ,Telcos on PEs of 5 (9 with debt),Starbucks on PE of 20 ,25 with debt.Starbucks debt trebled during the pandemic to $25 billion and has been stuck there for 4 years.

[Bobthebuilder]

33 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

In other news, the sky is blue.

Its not, that's the sun, hence why its black at night.

[Mandalorian]

Just now, Bobthebuilder said:

Its not, that's the sun, hence why its black at night.

Unfamiliar with Rayleigh scattering?

You could argue nothing looks like anything, it's just how EM waves interact with our retinas and how the brain interprets the data.

[Bobthebuilder]

Just now, Mandalorian said:

Unfamiliar with Rayleigh scattering?

You could argue nothing looks like anything, it's just how EM waves interact with our retinas and how the brain interprets the data.

It is shorter waves, but the sky is not blue Mr fucking clever clogs.

[Mandalorian]

Just now, Bobthebuilder said:

It is shorter waves, but the sky is not blue Mr fucking clever clogs.

[Bobthebuilder]

3 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

BATS divi day tomorrow, might buy myself some cobalt.

[Errol]

9 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

might buy myself some cobalt.

Pair it with a fine pauillac for maximum enjoyment.

[Mandalorian]

26 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

BATS divi day tomorrow, might buy myself some cobalt.

Capital recycling does you no good, you know

[Bobthebuilder]

12 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

Capital recycling does you no good, you know

I like your posts, but I do sometimes think it would be more interesting if you had been posting here 4 years ago.

I just cant take you seriously,

[Long time lurking]

Lets see how long this one lasts 

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Telcos put prices up 7% might lose 0.5% of their customers if any.Coffee shop puts prices up 2% loses 4% of customers ,Telcos on PEs of 5 (9 with debt),Starbucks on PE of 20 ,25 with debt.Starbucks debt trebled during the pandemic to $25 billion and has been stuck there for 4 years.

Ive jsut coma scored SBUX

Chart 1/5 Income 3/5 Balance SHeet 1/5 FCF 3/5 Sector 1/5=> Coma score 9/25.

So really poor coma score 17 my normal buy level

BS deserves some csurtiny.Some $3bn in goodwill plus the likelihood that US CRE is being marked to mdoel rather than teh market.

ALl in all there's not much to sell on ,debts are real assets conceal.

Edited May 1 by sancho panza

[wherebee]

9 hours ago, Errol said:

Someone mentioned woodside a few days ago. Down another 2.69% today so far.

me, I mentioned it.  It's a long term play - it'll go down a bit, sideways a bit, up a bit, all the while pushing our nice divvies and eventually it'll go mental when politics changes.

bottom picking is for monkeys

 

edit: tick tick tick for australian politicians holding back local oil and gas companies

 

Edited May 1 by wherebee

[AWW]

3 hours ago, Mandalorian said:

Unfamiliar with Rayleigh scattering?

You could argue nothing looks like anything, it's just how EM waves interact with our retinas and how the brain interprets the data.

Exactly. There's no such colour as magenta.

[ThoughtCriminal]

It's a measure of how fucked we are that George Galloway is the most Right-wing MP in Britain, and it's not even close.

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

I got into a twitter argument yesterday (I know, I know) which led me to do a deep dive on the Labour Force Survey and it's methodology. The LFS is what every commentary you'll ever see about labour participation rates is based on and it turns out that it's utterly worthless, complete and utter bollocks.

The LFS began in 1973 and was an in person interview until 88 when telephone interview was introduced. The frequency also changed: initially interviews every 2 years 73-83, then annual 83-92, quarterly thereafter.

Participation plummeted from over 90% in 73 to only 15% now. Drop out rate is absolutely huge now. Their answer? Imputation. That's right, they're basically guessing/making up the data. Former senior figures at the ONS think it's basically worthless now and can't be compared in any way to the 70s and 80s.

The point of my rambling is that this brought to mind that Twain quote about "Things you know that just aint so". So much of what's presented to us, and accepted unquestioningly, is completely untrue, just pure, fabricated bullshit. The framework in which we operate is built on lies, it's an illusion. It's as though we've been asked to navigate the earth with a fake map.

Anyway, food for thought.

[DurhamBorn]

9 hours ago, Mandalorian said:

Capital recycling does you no good, you know

Trust me,what il be putting some of my BAT divi into will do me the world of good.

 

[feed]

Lyn, Killing it as always.  

[sleepwello'nights]

7 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I got into a twitter argument yesterday (I know, I know) which led me to do a deep dive on the Labour Force Survey and it's methodology. The LFS is what every commentary you'll ever see about labour participation rates is based on a

Anyway, food for thought.

Government departments use the results of the study to identify how and where they should be using public resources. They use the information to check how different groups in the community are affected by existing policies and to inform future policy changes.

Funny that I thought policy changes were attributable to whichever minority group had the most successful lobbying campaign. 

[ThoughtCriminal]

14 hours ago, Harley said:

We call it the "warm milk company" due to the lack of coffee.  Someone tried to tell me last week that it's got better.  I doubt it.  I always liked Pret coffee but as with Greggs, only window shopping now.

Costco do Nespresso pods that are as good as any expensive cup of coffee I've ever had. Works out about 10p a cup.

Mind blowing that people are paying 5 quid for a cup of brown piss from these places.

[Harley]

20 minutes ago, feed said:

Lyn, Killing it as always.  

Just been on Thoughtfull Money too.

Edited May 2 by Harley

[Pip321]

My chance to influence and change the world today….its the mayoral election day in North Yorkshire & York and what a choice.

Got to vote but a quick read of the statements and it’s house building (I guess for Ukrainians and immigrants), food banks (er…shaz & co), limiting council tax (a lie) and supporting local businesses/better transport (yep, only the labour guy is talking business).

Great….maybe this isn’t a day to change the world. 

Edited May 2 by Pip321

[Pip321]

19 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Costco do Nespresso pods that are as good as any expensive cup of coffee I've ever had. Works out about 10p a cup.

Mind blowing that people are paying 5 quid for a cup of brown piss from these places.

We froth the milk manually in a cafeteria (pump it by hand)….takes less 1 minute. Sounds sad but it is perfect. Secret is to let the milk stand 2/3 minutes, then add the espresso (from the other cafeteria) and it’s fab. Unlimited top ups too. 

We used to go for a coffee at Starbucks almost everyday…..went recently and compared to our home brew and the little Italian independent place it was awful. 

We still like to sit down in a shitty dark room with those yellow daft lights, old battered furniture, unplastered walls, trip hazard floor boards and old comfy seats but now only twice a week. Independent shop we use….cos staff are nice and they do a nice coffee. 

[Lightscribe]

11 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

We froth the milk manually in a cafeteria (pump it by hand)….takes less 1 minute. Sounds sad but it is perfect. Secret is to let the milk stand 2/3 minutes, then add the espresso (from the other cafeteria) and it’s fab. Unlimited top ups too. 

We used to go for a coffee at Starbucks almost everyday…..went recently and compared to our home brew and the little Italian independent place it was awful. 

We still like to sit down in a shitty dark room with those yellow daft lights, old battered furniture, unplastered walls, trip hazard floor boards and old comfy seats but now only twice a week. Independent shop we use….cos staff are nice and they do a nice coffee. 

Used to have a bean to cup Gaggia machine (bought from a price mistake from Holland Phillips outlet) , but it took up too much space and required regular maintenance etc so sold it for more than I bought it for.

Nowadays I just grind beans in advance in an air sealed pot and just use a Mokka pot. I also use a frother (ooh er missus) on heated milk.