Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[SpectrumFX]

8 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

Its a not crash in real terms unless wages rise with inflation (which they very well might not).

In real terms houses could fall, and at the same time the real term value of wages could fall by the same amount or more.

The way that I view it, in that scenario it's still crashed. It's just that the real terms earning power of workers has also crashed.

I appreciate that workers are still fucked in that scenario so wouldn't likely care about the semantics.

 

[Long time lurking]

26 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

I have a constant contact with a chartered accountant, during our chats they have mentioned the subject of landlords and their tax arrangements. They maintain that over the last year or so the revenue has been aggressively pursuing landlords for possible tax discrepancies, to the shock and awe of landlords these enquiries can and do go back as far as 30 years and beyond.

As mentioned here the Government will take all it can now and going forward, this is just the start.

I`m not sure how long they have been doing it but the Land registry collects data on mortgage type ,residential is separated from BTL/bought via a company it dates back from my personal recollection to mid 2000`s it could be longer 

[SpectrumFX]

Interest rates held.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-68980175

[crashmonitor]

1 minute ago, SpectrumFX said:

Interest rates held.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-68980175

Swati and Ramsden for a cut 7-2

[Bobthebuilder]

Nice big jump in Harbour Energy today.

[Castlevania]

31 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Nice big jump in Harbour Energy today.

Dividend up too!

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, crashmonitor said:

Swati and Ramsden for a cut 7-2

If we were looking at next meeting for the first BoE cut you would expect them to "vote" 4-3 as a signal IMO.

[AWW]

13 hours ago, tank said:

Given the performance of the UK property market over just about everything else since the fag end of the last century, housing really is the only game in town and all post Thatcher UK governments rise and fall on the back of it. 

Either way, only a mug would bet against further increases in UK property values as the entire apparatus of the British state is behind it and the same applies in most other developed countries.

You cannot beat the power of the state. 

I wouldn't be so sure about that. In my area, if you want to sell, you are going to have to cut 30% off peak pricing. There's a converted chapel round the corner from me that I have my eye on, went on for £1.4m this time last year, current asking price £1m. It's a desirable property, good location, historic building, nicely refurbed, but it's not selling. Last sold for £750k in 2008. I think it'll end up back there or thereabouts, and at that price, I would be interested.

[Bobthebuilder]

4 minutes ago, AWW said:

I wouldn't be so sure about that. In my area, if you want to sell, you are going to have to cut 30% off peak pricing. There's a converted chapel round the corner from me that I have my eye on, went on for £1.4m this time last year, current asking price £1m. It's a desirable property, good location, historic building, nicely refurbed, but it's not selling. Last sold for £750k in 2008. I think it'll end up back there or thereabouts, and at that price, I would be interested.

Is that the one facing Victoria park?

[Long time lurking]

 

[Long time lurking]

7 hours ago, Ash4781b said:

why don’t the cut the rates! We’ll see today what they jump on when I expect Bailey will talk of rate cuts?

No cut today but the FTSE liked Baileys comments "we might have to cut rates further than expected in the future " or words to that effect 

How long can the promise of Jam tomorrow last before everyone realises they have no jam  

Edited May 9 by Long time lurking

[Long time lurking]

One for the Peter Zeihan disciples 

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

57 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

If we were looking at next meeting for the first BoE cut you would expect them to "vote" 4-3 as a signal IMO.

What would the other two do? Phone in sick as the first step to get on the benefits gravy train?

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

It`s been obvious for a long time there was something else behind all this other than climate the question is what ,as none of it made any sense economically 

 

Panorama last week did a 1 hour special on the carbon-credit industry. Apparently companies are now dubious of these green environmental projects and so increasing numbers of firms are doing their own in-house company projects to lower(fudge!?) their own carbon output. 

At the time I actually thought the Panorama program was performing an uncharacteristically 'brave' bit of journalism, however if that climate action group you mention is itself criticising carbon credits, then it's merely just more tragic proof that the environ'mentalist' lobby set the agenda and then the media obediently follow.

Edited May 9 by JMD

[Lightly Toasted]

On 08/05/2024 at 05:55, sleepwello'nights said:

If one accepts that view then it should be that the debt is extinguished when the individual dies. Control of the assets that they have acquired during their lifetime can be passed on to whoever the individual decided but the debts owed to him can no longer be settled. 

The creditor could then be expected to insist that "control of the assets" matching the debt would pass to him -- in essence, that a balancing bequest is written into the will, revocable only on final repayment.

Without a legislative block forbidding such "charges" on wills (and by default I expect they are blocked), I think you would get debt instruments with the bequest bundled in. The alternative would be scarcer & more expensive credit.

[Pip321]

19 minutes ago, JMD said:

Panorama last week did a 1 hour special on the carbon-credit industry. Apparently companies are now dubious of these green environmental projects and so increasing numbers of firms are doing their own in-house company projects to lower(fudge!?) their own carbon output. 

At the time I actually thought the Panorama program was performing an uncharacteristically 'brave' bit of journalism, however if that climate action group is itself criticising carbon credits, then it's merely just more proof that the environ'mentalist' lobby set the agenda and then the media obediently follow.

As I understand it a company can cause loads of ‘environmental carbon damage’ but buy an already existing forest and not burn it down….then they claim the forest adds to the equation (even though the forest already existed) and hey presto the company is carbon neutral.

The world of course hasn’t benefitted but let’s be honest….fuck the world, this is just about virtue signalling so normal people to use less energy otherwise the shift of power moves from dollars to energy.

And we all know who owns all the energy. Them bloody Ruskies and sand people.

Anyhoo…best dash to my private plane to an EU environmental meeting…so can you all turn your heating down please. Oh and eat insects and stop having kids. 🤦🏻‍♂️

[JMD]

49 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

One for the Peter Zeihan disciples 

 

Peter Zeihan gets many things 'wrong'(?) - it's suspiciously almost as though he is parroting/propagandising for the US government!!... Actually i have come to the conclusion that's exactly what he is doing.

After all he's a rather weird showman type and i don't believe he runs a team of expert researchers, uncovering global geopolitical trends. ...However viewed through that prism, Zeihan is actually a rather useful indicator for future US policies and actions. Just need to work out why/how his lies would benefit the US, and then also how same lies would adversely impact others (sorry Peter if I'm being groundlessly unfair to you!).

 

Edited May 9 by JMD

[JMD]

37 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

As I understand it a company can cause loads of ‘environmental carbon damage’ but buy an already existing forest and not burn it down….then they claim the forest adds to the equation (even though the forest already existed) and hey presto the company is carbon neutral.

The world of course hasn’t benefitted but let’s be honest….fuck the world, this is just about virtue signalling so normal people to use less energy otherwise the shift of power moves from dollars to energy.

And we all know who owns all the energy. Them bloody Ruskies and sand people.

Anyhoo…best dash to my private plane to an EU environmental meeting…so can you all turn your heating down please. Oh and eat insects and stop having kids. 🤦🏻‍♂️

Yes 'offsetting' is such a liberal (left brained) moronic management-class moral metric. 

...For some reason writing that has made me recall Christopher Hitchens tearing apart the arch-Liberal Shirley Williams on Question Time for attempting to defend the (then recent) burning of Sulman Rushdie's book - anyway it was brilliant and recommend a watch on YouTube.

Edited May 9 by JMD

[Long time lurking]

53 minutes ago, JMD said:

Panorama last week did a 1 hour special on the carbon-credit industry. Apparently companies are now dubious of these green environmental projects and so increasing numbers of firms are doing their own in-house company projects to lower(fudge!?) their own carbon output. 

At the time I actually thought the Panorama program was performing an uncharacteristically 'brave' bit of journalism, however if that climate action group you mention is itself criticising carbon credits, then it's merely just more tragic proof that the environ'mentalist' lobby set the agenda and then the media obediently follow.

Well i`m more skeptical than that ,nothing happens in politics by accident

I see more and more now regarding the end of ICE by 2035 which was 230 now being kicked down the road  

With a small tinfoil hat on i`m thinking it was/is all a successful psyop against Chain who seems to have skiped ICE development in the car market and gone all in on EV`s ,,call it protectionism via psyops  

Edited May 9 by Long time lurking

[Harley]

4 hours ago, crashmonitor said:

At the end of the day the only people who gain from high house prices are last time buy geriatrics who want to cash in

[feed]

Who woke silver up

[janch]

Shaun Richards on Japan, BOJ and the yen....

Some good comments too.  Maybe there is a dosbodder amongst them:

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2024/05/09/japan-discovers-that-a-lower-yen-and-surges-in-equity-markets-can-come-with-falling-real-wages/

[Long time lurking]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Peter Zeihan gets many things 'wrong'(?) - it's suspiciously almost as though he is parroting/propagandising for the US government!!... Actually i have come to the conclusion that's exactly what he is doing.

From what i have read that`s exactly whats he`s doing he supposed to be the "China economic expert adviser" to the Whitehouse

Which when you think about it it might explain a lot  

[HousePriceMania]

5 hours ago, wherebee said:

How do you class my prediction of a crash in real terms but an increase in fiat values?

How do you class my prediction of a crash in real terms but an increase in fiat values?

A real term crash for the rich at the mo, the poor are still fucked. 

[Errol]

Endeavour Silver, in particular, has gone mental today.