Political betting thread.......

[sancho panza]

7 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

His 3 main policies are:  $1000 a month for everyone, funded by a sales tax.  Medicare for all.  And reforming capitalism to be more human-centred.  He's well schooled in all of these and can present himself well.  I'm thinking its not just a recession they're facing, but deflationary collapse - and once they've all lost their retirement savings, and economists are recommending massive printing and spending - his message will resonate.  A lot depends on timing of the financial collapse, but at 20/1 for nomination, and 33/1 to win, I like the odds.  I feel Trump is now hurting his chances every time he gets up to talk up the economy.

Yeah I shop for the value plays as well.

The problem for the dems is that their internal machine is the one that sorted it for Hillary despite the evidence Bernie would have fared better.I struggle to see them picking someone other than Biden or Warren,neither of whom will be able to beat trump from where I'm looking.

[sancho panza]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

[Durabo]

I like Andrew Yang a lot. He seems to be thinking about how the world will change in the next cycle, and how the social contract will have to adapt - 

 

[sancho panza]

I suspect those odds on BP not getting a seat will shorten soon.

https://order-order.com/2019/08/21/tories-take-14pt-lead-new-poll/

[spygirl]

45 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I suspect those odds on BP not getting a seat will shorten soon.

https://order-order.com/2019/08/21/tories-take-14pt-lead-new-poll/

Kill the King.

A leadership strategy that has worked for millenia.

Labour need to ritually sacrifice Cuntbin, appease the Poll gods.

Im sure there voters from Peterborough know someone good with a sword ....

 

 

[sancho panza]

13 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Kill the King.

A leadership strategy that has worked for millenia.

Labour need to ritually sacrifice Cuntbin, appease the Poll gods.

Im sure there voters from Peterborough know someone good with a sword ....

 

 

I did well on the last labour leadership election.They should sacrifice him  so we can have fun and hopefully make money.

 

I agree with your thesis that JC has lost a lot of working class support.I'm not sure how Labour will get it back with the stance they've taken on Brexit/grooming gangs/IRA/Hamas/Chavez.

 

The great thing about Corbyn that really amuses me is that he won't go,no matter how bad his approval gets.

[spygirl]

4 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I did well on the last labour leadership election.They should sacrifice him  so we can have fun and hopefully make money.

 

I agree with your thesis that JC has lost a lot of working class support.I'm not sure how Labour will get it back with the stance they've taken on Brexit/grooming gangs/IRA/Hamas/Chavez.

 

The great thing about Corbyn that really amuses me is that he won't go,no matter how bad his approval gets.

I think its more complex than that.

McStalin and the loons wont let him go - hes there figurehead of a bright new Marxist UK

The lazy old fucker must be having serious doubts about having to actual do stuff for the first time in his.

He's spent the last 40 years pissing around, cycling to protests, just shouting and holding banners.

Im surprised the work n stress on him havent finished him off.

Cuntbin has disppeared a nubmer of times for unexplained reasons. I reckon hes just took to his bed and had to be dragged out.

 

[sancho panza]

8 hours ago, Tdog said:

Odds on a 2019 election are in to 1/4

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/year-of-next-general-election

I think we're going to go myself.Cummings going to take down some Remainer Tories potentially.EU must be wishing theyd been nicer to Theresa............

Corbyn looks a lost cause.Lib Dems might beat them.I imagine a large labour stay at home if they can't bring themselves to vote Tory.I think Brexit Party will largely stand aside

Edited September 2, 2019 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

Tories most seats at a GE 1.34....................that looks good fromhere

Lay Lab at 5.36.........looks a decent bet

Tory majority 2.5.......

Edited September 2, 2019 by sancho panza

[spygirl]

18 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I think we're going to go myself.Cummings going to take down some Remainer Tories potentially.EU must be wishing theyd been nicer to Theresa............

Corbyn looks a lost cause.Lib Dems might beat them.I imagine a large labour stay at home if they can't bring themselves to vote Tory.I think Brexit Party will largely stand aside

Indeed.

Barniers fucked it.

Just paddy pm holding the line. Hes fucked if germans throw him under the bus - or the oirish voters.

 

[sancho panza]

57 minutes ago, Tdog said:

Out to 1/6 now. I think you may be right, though BP is the anomaly. 

Surely the only reason to have an election on the 14th which is widely being touted is so he can have a deal with the EU, as if he is happy with no deal he ought to leave after 31/10 and then there will be no need for the BP.

I think the parliamentary arithmetic is getting diffeicult for BJ.It makes sense to strike now and pick up a lot of dissaffected Labour/Ukip/BP/non aligned leave voters that after 13/10 and a no deal ,will have no real need to back him given that a lot aren't natural tory voters.

This strategy of his makes perfect sense.Also may allow him to cut a few Gauke/Hammond types free to take their complete lack of savvy to the LD's.

BJ has nothing to lsoe but a one seat majority.A combination of LS support rising,labour dropping bcak(plus staying at home),greens rising,Ukip/BP fading etc will see Tories have their best shot in now not in three years.

Cummings is nobodys fool and BJ is not the village idiot many thought ....

[sancho panza]

54 minutes ago, Tdog said:

Heres a nice bet 3/1 for Corbyn to leave in 2019.

7/4 for 2020.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/exit-dates-jeremy-corbyn

I'm not sure Corbyn will leave,disastrous though he's been.It's like Batten taking ukip from 26% at the euros to 3% and then reoffering himself for the leadership,seemingly having missed the journey down in a haze.

LAbour have handled JC badly thus far.

 

[Hardhat]

Odds shortening for Boris exit in 2019...

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/boris-johnson-exit-date

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, Hardhat said:

Odds shortening for Boris exit in 2019...

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/boris-johnson-exit-date

I'd take the other side of that around 6/4.BJ playing a shrewd game here.I'm beginning to really admire that Cummings.

I want a GE,could be an good opportunity if the MSM manage to talk up the chances of a Labour win(hahahahahaha) or a LD/Lab alliance..I see nothing but a solid Tory win in English swing seats at the mo.Scotalnd/NI won't change electoral map much,Wales might stick the odd Tory in,but English swing seats will see romping Tory wins unless there's some sort of LD/Green/Lab pact on target seats.

Interesting times.I'll be waiting before putting any money on,that's for sure.After close of nominations,we'll know if there's been an informal pact.

Brexit party going to get squeezed big time.

[sancho panza]

8 hours ago, Tdog said:

Can you find any odds on a the turn out, could well be a very high as in effect its Referendum no.2

None I can find.They'll normally float a market nearer the time.Not sure it'll be that liquid.only two liquid markets are most seats a I think.nd next govt.

Ideally we need a date soon.Parliamentary elite going to get a second kicking

[jm51]

Ask Betfair to create a turnout % market. 

 

 

[sancho panza]

Waren moves to favourite vs Biden.Can't say Im surprised but had no money on it.

 

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128161111

 

[sancho panza]

chat tip Drudge

https://nypost.com/2019/09/07/elizabeth-warren-smartly-sneaking-up-on-weak-bloodshot-biden-from-the-left/

 

But Warren is the one to watch this time. Most national polls have her second, with two recent ones showing her trailing the former vice president by just four points.

She is drawing by far the largest crowds and is focused, energized and organized. Biden, on the other hand, had a terrible week, with a growing realization in the party that his flubs and memory lapses are not passing problems.

Both his blood-filled eye and his gibberish remarks about climate change added to doubts he can go the distance. His team wants to cut back on his schedule and lowered expectations for Iowa and New Hampshire, moves that smell like panic.

The only surprise to me is that the cracks in his game are so obvious just four months after he entered. I assumed the aura of inevitability that greeted Biden’s candidacy would carry him through this year, with the left-wing media glossing over his problems in their desire to defeat President Trump.

But Biden’s weaknesses are so blatant that the party’s top propaganda outlets, The New York Times and The Washington Post, gave front-page play to critical articles. That amounts to a five-alarm fire.

Most surprising, David Axelrod, the 2008-campaign guru who helped put Barack Obama and Biden into the White House, has become a fierce critic of Biden.

“It’s one thing to have a well-earned rep for goofy, harmless gaffes. It’s another if you serially distort your own record. @JoeBiden is in danger of creating a more damaging meme,” Axelrod tweeted Friday. He was reacting to a Biden claim that he never favored the Iraq war, even though he voted to give President George W. Bush authority for the 2003 invasion and turned against it only when the war went south.

Now that more voters will be paying more attention, Biden likely will pay a bigger price for poor performances. And because Warren is a much better debater than he is, and because others also will be gunning for him, don’t be shocked if Thursday’s showdown upends the race and she soon emerges as the front-runner.

At which point, Dems will have a new problem: The whiff of anti-Americanism in many of the candidates’ policies will become more pronounced without Biden at the top. Warren and Sen. Bernie Sanders are especially guilty of making sweeping condemnations of the shape and structure of contemporary society.

Indeed, they and their fellow candidates want such radical changes that it’s hard to figure out what, if anything, they like about America.

A little background. After Trump’s election, Washington Dems started with the resistance, then morphed into a soft secessionism, with some boycotting Trump’s inauguration and State of the Union speeches.

Since they took the House in 2018, a growing list of members declared their intent to impeach the president even though they have not identified clear offenses. Although special counsel Robert Mueller suggested no charges, many Dems refuse to accept Trump as the legitimate president.

Still, these departures from political norms largely reflected a blind hatred for one man. As destructive as that is, something different — and worse — is happening now.

The 2020 candidates and their supporters appear to be as angry at America as they are at Trump. They express contempt for our history and act as if everything about our country is so polluted that we must smash the existing order and start over.

As a result, nearly all the candidates are espousing ideas that are so far out of the mainstream that they sound more like calls for ­revolution than reform.

[Democorruptcy]

I think the Lib Dems will shorten in the betting, now 18/1

The country was split on Brexit and they will capture Remain voters. The Leave voters could be split between Tory and Brexit. Boris is driving some voters their way. They will take some Labour voters who won't vote for Corbyn. Jo Swinson should take their chance before Corbyn is replaced.

Edited September 9, 2019 by Democorruptcy

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I think the Lib Dems will shorten in the betting, now 18/1

The country was split on Brexit and they will capture Remain voters. The Leave voters could be split between Tory and Brexit. Boris is driving some voters their way. They will take some Labour voters who won't vote for Corbyn. Jo Swinson should take their chance before Corbyn is replaced.

Yeah,agreed on your line of thinking DM.LD's going to surge late as Corbyns abysmal reading of the room gets worse and he's trusted by neither remainers or leavers

I think BJ will do a deal with BP.....no other way out.Which could work any number of ways.too early to put cash on.

Having said that I think BJ is more popular with voters than MP's.effectively offering an arbitrage for the brave/foolhardy.Bets will rely on the dfeal they strike with BP.If there's no deal,then no overrall maj looks good LD surge taking the blame.

 

I'm going to be nalaysing a lot of swing seats as this could be a cracking opportunity.Having said that,the basis of my bets is a labour rout/collapse,if labour do well as opposed to LD's and Tories,then I'll get reamed.But a 40% return is a 40% return.

 

a few points to note

1) odds should remian relatively well split.Tory maj floating out to 3.1

2 tory msot seats looks good value at 1.46

They're the only liquid markets,understandably so.

Edited September 9, 2019 by sancho panza

[Democorruptcy]

49 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I think BJ will do a deal with BP.....no other way out.Which could work any number of ways.too early to put cash on.

I'd like to see Boris offer Farage Deputy PM!

[Durabo]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

I'd like to see Boris offer Farage Deputy PM!

This gave me food for thought. It's an established constitutional convention that a Minister should be sitting in either the House of Commons or the House of Lords so they are accountable to Parliament. The Deputy PM role hasn't officially existed for a while, with the Minister for the Cabinet Office being the defacto deputy PM (Lidington under May and Gove now).

So - how would this work with Farage? Would he have to win a seat in Parliament or could he be appointed to the HoL? I would assume that people would be upset if such a senior post went to a non MP. And how does that sit with him being an MEP - can MEP's sit in national elections? I would assume not

Edited September 9, 2019 by Durabo

[sancho panza]

5 minutes ago, Durabo said:

This gave me food for thought. It's an established constitutional convention that a Minister should be sitting in either the House of Commons or the House of Lords so they are accountable to Parliament. The Deputy PM role hasn't officially existed for a while, with the Minister for the Cabinet Office being the defacto PM (Lidington under May and Gove now).

So - how would this work with Farage? Would he have to win a seat in Parliament or could he be appointed to the HoL? I would assume that people would be upset if such a senior post went to a non MP. And how does that sit with him being an MEP - can MEP's sit in national elections? I would assume not

He wouldn't be an MEP any more.Salisbury ran the UK as PM from the HoL

I don't think that's realistic.I think it'll be more along the lines of we'll elt you run at some Northern seats and you leave us alone in the south.

They'll be working on it as we write I suspect.

GE has to be in the offing.

[Democorruptcy]

5 hours ago, Durabo said:

This gave me food for thought. It's an established constitutional convention that a Minister should be sitting in either the House of Commons or the House of Lords so they are accountable to Parliament. The Deputy PM role hasn't officially existed for a while, with the Minister for the Cabinet Office being the defacto deputy PM (Lidington under May and Gove now).

So - how would this work with Farage? Would he have to win a seat in Parliament or could he be appointed to the HoL? I would assume that people would be upset if such a senior post went to a non MP. And how does that sit with him being an MEP - can MEP's sit in national elections? I would assume not

I'm assuming he'd have to be a Tory MP to get a job for Boris. If there isn't an election, maybe a Tory Brexiteer MP could resign and call a snap by-election for him to stand?  

[sancho panza]

GE 2019 still favourite on BF

Tory msot seats 1.56.......................

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.132099836

 

I used to read PB a lot but it has become rather a Remainer place.

http://www.politicalbetting.com