Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[sancho panza]

Prices are rising,if we get a debt deflation running alongsdie it,we're fubar.

 

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/04/09/producer-prices-blow-out/

 

 

 

and herein lies the rub.Great journalism from WOlf here,'noone on Wall St is goingto dismiss 50% yoy earnings growth as base effect'...............and yet they do it with inflation..

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/04/08/get-ready-for-a-wild-base-effect-highlighted-forcefully-when-it-suits-them-as-with-inflation-silenced-forcefully-when-its-awkward-as-with-corporate-earnings/

This phenomenon is the “base effect.”

Fed Chair Powell brought it up when he was dismissing future inflation. Inflation dipped on a month-to-month basis for three months last spring, as energy prices collapsed and prices of some services, such as hotel and flight bookings, swooned. So year-over-year CPI growth will jump over the coming month, in part because of this base effect. And Powell is going to dismiss this jump in inflation, and he will be using the term “base effect” to do so.

But you guessed it, no one will blame the “base effect” for the approaching massive year-over-year jumps in corporate revenues and earnings.

Q1, Q2, and Q3 2020 were rough for many companies. Revenues were down or had vanished, and profits had collapsed or had turned to losses. Going forward, these companies will report their year-over-year growth rates in revenues and earnings, and some of those growth rates are going to be between huge and ginormous, but from the much lower base in the same quarter last year. This too is the base effect.

Unlike Powell who is already dismissing future inflation with a mention of the “base effect,” no one on Wall Street is going to use “base effect” to dismiss 50% year-over-year revenue growth, or 90% year-over-year earnings growth even if revenues and earnings are still far below where they had been in 2019.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, BurntBread said:

Nobody knows.

If I were to try to channel the spirit of the thread, I think the conclusion would be that gold and silver, and more pertinently the PM miners, may go either up or down form here in the short term. However, in the event of a BK, PM miners are expected to be temporarily below their current valuations (David Hunter suggests a possible 30% fall), before beginning a long (and bumpy) ride up again to new highs. DB has a target price for silver of $200 to $250 per ounce by the end of the decade. David Hunter has said similar, and has mentioned a figure for gold of $5000 per ounce, again later in the cycle.

All that is conjecture, though.

I know silver is more speculatiion and gold is more insurance, so each has different purpose in a portfolio. But if many financial commentators estimate silver doing 10x and gold only 3x, are there some here that just own gold miners for leverage and don't bother owning the actual metal (physical gold or etf)? Or perhaps have other different strategies in regards their PM asset allocation for this cycle? 

[JMD]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

What I find intriguing is that you(and other Macro commnetators like DH) and Dr Tim have reached similar conclusions through very diffferent methods/reasoning.

For me the harderst adjustment of the last decade has been learning that CBs will be mad enough to do the things that mad people shouldn't be allowed to do.And that when I was sat there looking at the bloating of CB balance sheets worldwide,the BoJ buying ETF's(wtf!!!),the BoE printing £250bn in 2020 tax year whilst govt issued £270bn new detb etc etc and thinking it was mad,I wasn't insane,I was normal,rational and possessed of my faculties.

I've done some hard thinking about alcoholics/bullies/druggies and their enablers thsi last week and I've been trying to work out who's worse.In my view,the enabler ie the BoE shares a dsiproportionate responsibility for where we are.Politicians will always chase easy solutions,the CBers are meant to be more educated and ahem........'independetn' than that.

 

What was the point the point of all that hot air about BoE independecne in the late 90's if they were never going to excercise it?

 

SP Please don't begin to dought your sanity (after all even Felix Zalauf in the video I posted yesterday said he struggled to see the sense in CB actions), although I think it also wrong for you to attempt to character trait our politicians as mad. What I mean is aren't they just technocrats pulling the levers of a systemically failing system? Although when we do eventually get effective leadership I predict and fear it will come with lots of 'unwanted baggage'.                                                                                                                                                      As for the 'independant BofE' government arms length narrative, the story there reads more like a penny dreadful... After all who is it that appoints the BofE governor? It is a political choice and usually made by the chancellor of the exchequer!! And yet the governor's paid 500,000, compared to 100,000 for the chancellor, hmmm not quiet madness, but I do grant you that the power dynamic looks positively schizophrenic.

[Harley]

I never saw the BoE as independent.  That's not how things work.  Always, look at what they do, not what they say.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, JMD said:

I know silver is more speculatiion and gold is more insurance, so each has different purpose in a portfolio. But if many financial commentators estimate silver doing 10x and gold only 3x, are there some here that just own gold miners for leverage and don't bother owning the actual metal (physical gold or etf)? Or perhaps have other different strategies in regards their PM asset allocation for this cycle

Two key dynamics for me:  I see PMs as part of a hard asset class so look for other assets to complement them such as other metals, crypto, land, physical assets, etc.  Look at Gates and farmland.  Turns out I'm under 25% invested in hard assets so wish to increase my holdings but maybe other than in PMs.  Second is the move to some miners becoming value plays.  I've never been an investor in miners given my poor trading record but this is now a major area I'm looking at.  Maybe this will get easier as more miners increase their divs to make them attractive to me.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, JMD said:

Yes paying taxes into a system that then pays huge amounts straight back out to masses of unproductive/unemployed people, is one glaring example of so many, of why for me I consider that the 'social contract' has been broken, and why I think that democracy itself has now failed. First prorogation, then lockdowns, what next? (rhetorical question, we all kinda know what's coming)                                                                     DB, you mention land-value tax policies - I think these could be operated to make land speculation unattractive, is that what you mainly meant? That is to say I don't think they would raise much in terms of being a wealth tax because the wealthy would find ways of 'hiding' property, for example tracts of land could be utilised as working farms/forestry(for lumber) and put in trust for next generation to inherit. Anyway isnt most wealth of the rich held in stocks and company ownerships?                                                                            Collecting all taxes is a difficult problem to crack. But if we do get more authoritarian government (not wanting this, but think it inevitable), and the West collectively for example were to make all foreign bank accounts transparent along with operating strong capitol controls, I wonder would such government oversight of the money flows coming in/out of the country stop most tax evasion, by pulling the rug from beneath offshore tax shelters?

Apparently, a lot of "old money" land is still not registered at Land Registry.  No legal need to do so unless transacted, etc.  There's a guy/group on the web all over the subject. 

[spygirl]

12 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

This is the telling point, its the productive sector of the economy - private enterprise, which is rewarded the least in our current system. 

Thats Brown for you.

 

[Hancock]

5 hours ago, Harley said:

I never saw the BoE as independent.  That's not how things work.  Always, look at what they do, not what they say.

This is a 100% real, actual photo of what they do.

[DurhamBorn]

The difference this time is China.India will want closer military ties and access to modern weapons.Boris off to India because he sees huge fossil fuel enabled growth while it looks like Ellesmere Port Vauxhall plant might shut due to the 2030 no ICE sales 

They make out India is very protectionist,and it is,try affecting its onion prices,but not so for BP,they are growing a very big business over there.

Energy and weapons are what India needs.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/04/11/global-britain-must-push-lucrative-trade-deal-india/

 

[Talking Monkey]

17 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

To save democracy longer term they need to abolish the welfare state and replace with a Universal Basis Income alongside a land value tax.It needs to be set lower than welfare benefits now so that you can only live a very frugal living on it.The thing that stops it coming in is housing.To counter that the state needs to build lots more housing with shared facilities.The state should pay zero rent to private landlords.

The state is making people poor by choosing who it gives resources too.An example only today.My neighbour has retired from the police,looks very young,55? and has used a pension lump sum to give his daughter a 50% deposit on a house.He will be getting a massive tax payer funded pension now.

If your ordinary and dont work for the state,or get welfare from it you have little chance of getting on.

DB isn't the end of the Welfare State and some basic if not very basic UBI baked in. The current welfare system looks to be creeping towards an eventual tipping point of rapid collapse, in parallel  more and more potential workers becoming superfluous to requirements. Might be a decade or so away but defo looks to be in our lifetime. One of the key questions is how basic and frugal would that existence be relative to today's average welfare state lifestyle. 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Talking Monkey said:

DB isn't the end of the Welfare State and some basic if not very basic UBI baked in. The current welfare system looks to be creeping towards an eventual tipping point of rapid collapse, in parallel  more and more potential workers becoming superfluous to requirements. Might be a decade or so away but defo looks to be in our lifetime. One of the key questions is how basic and frugal would that existence be relative to today's average welfare state lifestyle. 

Its nearly certain yes,only the timescale is in question.All the local factory jobs near me pay around £20 a week more before get to work costs than a single mother with two kids gets.Thats not sustainable and was masked by eastern europeans flooding in.Low paid factories now really struggle to get decent workers.They get people,but they dont give a toss if they get sacked etc,so spend half the time at the bog on their phones.They call the toilets in most factories now the "Facebog" .If you have a paid house the equation isnt as bad,but when that goal is hard to reach on low wages less and less people try.Brown pretty much destroyed this country and most of the problems were caused by him in a few short years.

[NogintheNog]

1 hour ago, Talking Monkey said:

DB isn't the end of the Welfare State and some basic if not very basic UBI baked in. The current welfare system looks to be creeping towards an eventual tipping point of rapid collapse, in parallel  more and more potential workers becoming superfluous to requirements. Might be a decade or so away but defo looks to be in our lifetime. One of the key questions is how basic and frugal would that existence be relative to today's average welfare state lifestyle. 

I agree with this, UBI introduced at some point with Central Bank Digital Currency to get it. Programmable £, with a time limit to use and a central government ledger/blockchain. All money in the economy visible to HMRC. Cash money phased out within a short period after introduction. Banks die.
Possible laws enacted on crypto and gold/silver to hinder use as monetary alternatives.
Paid per head with a bonus if you have children or a disability. No requirement to look for work but subsistence living. You want more? Find some work!

Basically communism. Ref China.

[Talking Monkey]

17 minutes ago, NogintheNog said:

I agree with this, UBI introduced at some point with Central Bank Digital Currency to get it. Programmable £, with a time limit to use and a central government ledger/blockchain. All money in the economy visible to HMRC. Cash money phased out within a short period after introduction. Banks die.
Possible laws enacted on crypto and gold/silver to hinder use as monetary alternatives.
Paid per head with a bonus if you have children or a disability. No requirement to look for work but subsistence living. You want more? Find some work!

Basically communism. Ref China.

That potential curb on holding physical gold and silver is worrying. I realise one has to hedge but the bastard government might neutralise the hedge. 

[Lightscribe]

47 minutes ago, NogintheNog said:

I agree with this, UBI introduced at some point with Central Bank Digital Currency to get it. Programmable £, with a time limit to use and a central government ledger/blockchain. All money in the economy visible to HMRC. Cash money phased out within a short period after introduction. Banks die.
Possible laws enacted on crypto and gold/silver to hinder use as monetary alternatives.
Paid per head with a bonus if you have children or a disability. No requirement to look for work but subsistence living. You want more? Find some work!

Basically communism. Ref China.

A lot sooner that most would think. China’s already introduced digital currency, the west won’t be far behind (after all who wants to carry around that filthy virus-ridden anonymous cash anymore?)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/enriquedans/2021/04/07/chinas-digital-currency-is-about-to-disrupt-money/?sh=2b96b2f01665

Next up, digital ID rollout

https://www.weforum.org/events/global-technology-governance-summit-2021/sessions/scaling-up-digital-identity-systems

World Bank paper

http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/199411519691370495/Technology-Landscape-for-Digital-Identification.pdf

 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

On 08/04/2021 at 21:57, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly right,thats whats happening.Its the reason i and others urged people to focus on de-complex areas.The oil and mobile company dont care if there are 3 lots of rice instead of 15.Iv been stocking up on as much as i can 2nd hand from Marketplace etc,just got a lovely £10 bag of clothes for grandson,i reckon £100s worth.My daughter is actually selling on after use now for a profit,so free use and profits.

Iv just got my daughter in law a nice Peugeot 207 1.6 diesel 11 plate this week,the Allure top range version.Keep that on the road for her for a decade and should see her depreciation and fix costs be around £20 a week.Fixed a freezer i got for £20 so filling with reduced items etc,thats 4 freezers now  got a chicken in Tesco for 62p tonight @Yellow_Reduced_Sticker and a few packs of King Prawns for 65p a pack among other things.Shouldnt mention prawns as @nirvana sometimes talks to them  

I must say i should really learn how to make wine.Loads of Elderberries along the old railways lines near me,that would make superb wine.

Its all coming along as expected isnt it.Amazing how we predicted they would fear unemployment more than inflation and @Barnsey showing above that is the Fed thinking now.

 

YES mate ! Great TIP of yours marketplace...just this week i bought a pair of chest-waders for £15 + £5.76 shipping (forget the perv stuff guys  this is for my fishing!)

 

Anyway contacted the seller for the brand name & top part pic, well f*** me ol' boots, these waders are EXPENSIVE to buy new, even if you could get them they would cost around £90! AND...the best part is they are BRAND-NEW and they fit like a snug glove!

 

Here's my 10 STAR TIP on buying from marketplace:

 

If ya new to faceache - join with a new email and change 1 letter in ya surname - in the personnel settings lock everything.

[this is if you DON'T want to get into friends finding you and basically wasting time!]

 

NOW Important stuff, MOST sellers say they WON'T ship...

 

SO...DON'T haggle!

However, if you send 'em a NICE message, 8 times out of ten they WILL!

AND here's the kicker ...YOU can get: up to 10 kg Maximum Weight sent for a measly - £5.76p (power tools anyone?!)

 

Maximum Length 0.65 m Maximum Height 0.5 m Maximum Width 0.5 m Max Length+Girth 1.65 m

 

USE: parcel2go.com

 

It's the cheapest option, and YODEL on it do the £5.76p (I've used these 4 times so far and perfect parcel arrives in 3 days)

 

 

BTW, House around the corner is being sold, so hence a skip outside, well you can guess that yours truly was there at the OPEN!

 

WHILE I was rummaging in the skip (fed up knocking on the door to ask now as they all say YES) ...a mid-20's foxy smiling girl came out the house to see what i was up to, anyway got chatting and as i couldn't reach all the down in the bottom of the skip to grab some stuff out...to help me out she went indoors to get me a broom handle! (I know what ya thinking @nirvana)

 

YOU wouldn't believe what folks throw out, i got a newish prestige pressure cooker, it just needs a clean these are £40 quid new!

 

After i walked away looking like a 1970's coal-man...i went back last night around 7pm, blimey they cleared the garage out, tools, nuts, bolts screws, nails, even special tools like threading taps with and extension for spark plugs, so the guy must of been a mechanic/engineer, @Harley would be drooling over this stuff for his Scrapheap Challenge ...anyways grabbed as much as i could, but left the complete miter saw stand, going to get that tonight...

 

[Lightscribe]

19 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

WHILE I was rummaging in the skip (fed up knocking on the door to ask now as they all say YES) ...a mid-20's foxy smiling girl came out the house to see what i was up to, anyway got chatting and as i couldn't reach all the down in the bottom of the skip to grab some stuff out...to help me out she went indoors to get me a broom handle!  

 

Sounds like one of ‘those’ movies from the 70’s. Was you wearing your waders?

[23rdian]

37 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

YES mate ! Great TIP of yours marketplace...just this week i bought a pair of chest-waders for £15 + £5.76 shipping (forget the perv stuff guys  this is for my fishing!)

 

Anyway contacted the seller for the brand name & top part pic, well f*** me ol' boots, these waders are EXPENSIVE to buy new, even if you could get them they would cost around £90! AND...the best part is they are BRAND-NEW and they fit like a snug glove!

 

Here's my 10 STAR TIP on buying from marketplace:

 

If ya new to faceache - join with a new email and change 1 letter in ya surname - in the personnel settings lock everything.

[this is if you DON'T want to get into friends finding you and basically wasting time!]

 

NOW Important stuff, MOST sellers say they WON'T ship...

 

SO...DON'T haggle!

However, if you send 'em a NICE message, 8 times out of ten they WILL!

AND here's the kicker ...YOU can get: up to 10 kg Maximum Weight sent for a measly - £5.76p (power tools anyone?!)

 

Maximum Length 0.65 m Maximum Height 0.5 m Maximum Width 0.5 m Max Length+Girth 1.65 m

 

USE: parcel2go.com

 

It's the cheapest option, and YODEL on it do the £5.76p (I've used these 4 times so far and perfect parcel arrives in 3 days)

 

 

BTW, House around the corner is being sold, so hence a skip outside, well you can guess that yours truly was there at the OPEN!

 

WHILE I was rummaging in the skip (fed up knocking on the door to ask now as they all say YES) ...a mid-20's foxy smiling girl came out the house to see what i was up to, anyway got chatting and as i couldn't reach all the down in the bottom of the skip to grab some stuff out...to help me out she went indoors to get me a broom handle! (I know what ya thinking @nirvana)

 

YOU wouldn't believe what folks throw out, i got a newish prestige pressure cooker, it just needs a clean these are £40 quid new!

 

After i walked away looking like a 1970's coal-man...i went back last night around 7pm, blimey they cleared the garage out, tools, nuts, bolts screws, nails, even special tools like threading taps with and extension for spark plugs, so the guy must of been a mechanic/engineer, @Harley would be drooling over this stuff for his Scrapheap Challenge ...anyways grabbed as much as i could, but left the complete miter saw stand, going to get that tonight...

 

Skips are great assuming you haven't got a load of nasty stuff in them. I love people that put decent stuff under the sloping front of them so it doesn't get rained on too. 

[DurhamBorn]

@Yellow_Reduced_Sticker on Marketplace i bought a bag of clothes for my grandson £10 and now the woman messages every time she has another lot and she puts them in the porch in a bag and i stick the money through letter box.She now says she only wants a fiver each time.Marketplace is superb for kids stuff,pushchairs,toys etc,can get for next to nothing.

Its also superb for furniture that wont fit in a car,people just want shot so my old estate comes into its own.I got a lovely pine dresser for the kitchen for £60,i upcycled it,£27 for the paint.Means i can keep my pizza oven in there.It was under the bed,but took my mind off coitus in case it got damaged  

 

 

[MrXxxx]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

They call the toilets in most factories now the "Facebog"

I can remember working in a metal fabricators as a teenager when the old boy I was assigned to showed me how to weld. He then said "I'm just off to the library" only to return three hours later!...fortunately for him I was 'as keen as mustard' to learn any new skills, so produced enough work to keep us both covered when the Production Manager did his rounds checking on progress :-)))

[JMD]

13 hours ago, Harley said:

Two key dynamics for me:  I see PMs as part of a hard asset class so look for other assets to complement them such as other metals, crypto, land, physical assets, etc.  Look at Gates and farmland.  Turns out I'm under 25% invested in hard assets so wish to increase my holdings but maybe other than in PMs.  Second is the move to some miners becoming value plays.  I've never been an investor in miners given my poor trading record but this is now a major area I'm looking at.  Maybe this will get easier as more miners increase their divs to make them attractive to me.

Interesting Harley what you say about the pm/hard asset ratio for your portfolio. % allocations are very important for risk/reward and achieving a balanced portfolio. But I think along with asset allocation, I think identifying sectors that you can rotate in/out of is also an important consideration. I noticed you mentioned asset allocation the other day and I myself have been thinking more about it recently. I haven't made final decision but I am seeking to use maybe only 8 sectors... so maybe PM's, commods, energy, telecoms, chemical, health, etc.                                                                                                                                                                  To explain... although I might be using the wrong/muddled terminology here(?), but what I'm trying to do is use the favoured next cycle inflation sectors (as discussed on this thread), but identify the ones that have max. degree of 'un-correlation' (not seeking the negative correlation one used to get between stocks/bonds) between each sector, in order to help me to more effectively trim/sell from a sector that has done well, and then put profits into my other sector which still looks relatively cheap. I would do this for say next 5+ years whilst remaining invested in my original selected sectors, and (long term hold) stocks within those sectors (ie not aiming to trade, buy/sell stocks) - instead, just aiming to 'trim high' and 'buy low'.                                                        Hope I have described this (at least partially) adequately? Might sound complicated but i don't think is. However, it's identifying the 'right' sectors part that I am struggling with (eg telecoms and health I guess are very uncorrelated?), perhaps others are already doing this and can offer some positive advise? I guess there is a book/web resource that goes into detail about uncorrelated sectors but thought I'd first prod this thread!?! (also this could be an idea others might like to use)

[geordie_lurch]

3 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

A lot sooner that most would think. China’s already introduced digital currency, the west won’t be far behind (after all who wants to carry around that filthy virus-ridden anonymous cash anymore?)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/enriquedans/2021/04/07/chinas-digital-currency-is-about-to-disrupt-money/?sh=2b96b2f01665

Next up, digital ID rollout

https://www.weforum.org/events/global-technology-governance-summit-2021/sessions/scaling-up-digital-identity-systems

World Bank paper

http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/199411519691370495/Technology-Landscape-for-Digital-Identification.pdf

 

Yep I agree with everything there and have been trying to emphasise this massive shift in this thread for months. Zerohedge have been on this story for a long time too as you can read here with the following text from a recent WSJ article about it being the game changer...

"The money itself is programmable. Beijing has tested expiration dates to encourage users to spend it quickly, for times when the economy needs a jump start."

Also note EVERY single transaction is 100% trackable and they can tell you where and therefore pretty much what you can spend it on. Been caught protesting against the Government or not taken your 6 monthly 'vaccine' booster - they could freeze or reduce your digital pounds until you comply

[Harley]

52 minutes ago, JMD said:

Interesting Harley what you say about the pm/hard asset ratio for your portfolio. % allocations are very important for risk/reward and achieving a balanced portfolio. But I think along with asset allocation, I think identifying sectors that you can rotate in/out of is also an important consideration. I noticed you mentioned asset allocation the other day and I myself have been thinking more about it recently. I haven't made final decision but I am seeking to use maybe only 8 sectors... so maybe PM's, commods, energy, telecoms, chemical, health, etc.                                                                                                                                                                  To explain... although I might be using the wrong/muddled terminology here(?), but what I'm trying to do is use the favoured next cycle inflation sectors (as discussed on this thread), but identify the ones that have max. degree of 'un-correlation' (not seeking the negative correlation one used to get between stocks/bonds) between each sector, in order to help me to more effectively trim/sell from a sector that has done well, and then put profits into my other sector which still looks relatively cheap. I would do this for say next 5+ years whilst remaining invested in my original selected sectors, and (long term hold) stocks within those sectors (ie not aiming to trade, buy/sell stocks) - instead, just aiming to 'trim high' and 'buy low'.                                                        Hope I have described this (at least partially) adequately? Might sound complicated but i don't think is. However, it's identifying the 'right' sectors part that I am struggling with (eg telecoms and health I guess are very uncorrelated?), perhaps others are already doing this and can offer some positive advise? I guess there is a book/web resource that goes into detail about uncorrelated sectors but thought I'd first prod this thread!?! (also this could be an idea others might like to use)

I used sector themes in the past and a guy was interviewed on Palisades radio a while back doing as you describe with sector ETFs (but moving wholly between them every few months).  I was going to look at doing the same as it had great appeal but he had access to better (US) ETFs.  I once looked at using exemplar companies from each sector as proxies but ditched that per my reasoning below.

All that though was for my equity asset class. A lot of literature out there about the importance of asset classes first and foremost.  Ideally one will compensate the other and top slicing to maintain the allocations will reduce portfolio risk (volatility).  So Equity, Bonds, PMs (or hard assets) and cash.  The £1m question though is what allocation model to choose and that depends on your objectives (e.g risk v return tradeoff).

I stopped using sector allocations for my equity portfolio for a number of reasons:

. the loss of quality sectors ETFs due to KID

. a concern about arbitrary sector classifications (e.g. PM miner royalty companies, etc  in "Financials")

. I have no way of knowing if the macro talk about which sector is actually correct

. I was running out of good companies in my macro preferred sectors

. I learnt how to screen for companies and got access to the right tools to do it relatively easily

I now let the data lead me with my screens.  So bottoms up rather than top down.  If the sectors are correct, they will come up in my screens.  However I tread very carefully and typically ignore companies I catch but are in the sectors I don't like (after validating their sector categorisation). 

Each to their own and I would use sector ETFs to trade, moving between them as their technicals change if I had a access to quality sector ETFs.  I guess the above just shows how investing is a personal journey, constantly evolving to seek better alpha.

PS: I do sense check my actual portfolio sector (actually next level industry) allocations now and then to ensure no bunching.

[nirvana]

4 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

.to help me out she went indoors to get me a broom handle!

hey dude, I just popped in from heaven to say hi!

here's sumfing so extraordinarily crazy when you've been chasing bigger and better 'useless shite' all your life....

this week I sold 2 pushbikes for about 1500€ and I bought that other thing for like 50€ and man I've been having a ball!

I think I'm gonna sell everything and just cycle around the world from now on and eat the most delicious foods, and taste the most delicious nipples, and sleep under the stars and just say 'wow man' as much as I can!

Peace bro! Virtual cheek kisses to you! Not on the buttocks though! 

oh yeah don't forget, Marcus Aurelius

The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane

[planit]

13 minutes ago, PrincessDrac said:

US CPI  Link.

Good or bad for Gold and Silver?

Upside risk for CPI and Fed rate hikes

Next week’s CPI is going to rise sharply. We expect it to jump from 1.7% to 2.4% year-on-year, but it is likely to get close to 4% over the summer as prices in a vibrant, re-opened, stimulus fuelled economy contrast starkly with those of twelve months before when the economy was largely in lockdown.

The Fed believe that inflation will then moderate, but we think that pandemic-related scarring and supply constraints will keep inflation elevated for longer than they do – as underlined by today's PPI figure. We also think that the housing components will be an increasingly important story over the next twelve months.

It really depends on how much over or under the expected figure plus how the bond markets react. If the figure overshoots too much there could be a bond rout and it is anyone's guess what happens at that point.

The best outcome for gold might be 0.2% over the 2.4% prediction but an undershoot might also be good for gold if 10yr treasuries start heading back to 1.2%.

 

I think this is quite an important week with employment and retail figures too.

[MrXxxx]

On 10/04/2021 at 18:54, feed said:

Lyn today

 

Talks about the inflation vs deflation at around the 41 minute mark, if you don't time for the full hour.

But worth the time as always

 

Well worth a watch, especially for those who want to get a better understanding of how to approach a macro approach...Lyn Alden just has such a good way of explaining concepts simply, whether verbally or in the written form. Her, George, Raoul, and Macrovoices are my goto sites for developing my understanding/approach.