Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[BurntBread]

34 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

People would just accept it as they can use their cards... then they will swap your standard £s to CBDC digital pounds (plebs only, at least at first) and that's when the real fun starts as it will all be tracked and some of it will come with restrictions such as where you can spend it and how long you can selfishly 'hoard ' it

There is something funny about digital currency with a time-limit, which makes me think it's slightly less likely.

Governments love inflation, because it's a tax which working people don't know how to avoid, and typically don't realise it is a tax at all. Once you inflate the money supply, and when things have come back to some kind of equilibrium, then I think the overall result has been to confiscate wealth from two types of people: cash savers and bondholders (for example pensioners). As DB says, this is confiscation of saved labour. Those people who want to avoid the tax can do so by getting out of cash and bonds and into real things (including part-ownership of companies).

By introducing a digital currency with a time-limit, the government would be forcing cash into being just a medium of exchange, rather than a store of value as well. That will actually reduce the pool of people they can steal from through inflation, which is why I'm starting to doubt whether they really want to do this. Admittedly, the theft from bond-holders is much greater than that from cash-savers (not many people have large cash savings, and the leverage from debt is bigger), but it's still removing a part of the benefit (to the government) of inflation, as a tool to farm the population.

Am I making a reasonable point here, or is it just wishful thinking?

[NogintheNog]

7 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

By introducing a digital currency with a time-limit, the government would be forcing cash into being just a medium of exchange, rather than a store of value as well.

Isn't it already just a medium of exchange? It's only a store of value if we switch to deflation, and then TPTB will extract it from your accounts to save the banks....???

To my mind the last time cash or should we say currency was a store of value was pre 2008!

[feed]

Follow the money

When does the furlough scheme end? The furlough scheme is currently set to run until September 30.

Furloughed employees will continue to receive up to 80% of their pay for hours not worked while the scheme continues:

From July, the government will contribute 70% and employers will have to pay 10% for hours not worked
In August and September the government will pay 60% and employers 20%

Unless it's extended again, i wouldn't expect to see real change in behaviour before October 

Another lockdown? Watch what Rishi does. 

 

[Hancock]

4 minutes ago, feed said:

Follow the money

When does the furlough scheme end? The furlough scheme is currently set to run until September 30.

Furloughed employees will continue to receive up to 80% of their pay for hours not worked while the scheme continues:

From July, the government will contribute 70% and employers will have to pay 10% for hours not worked
In August and September the government will pay 60% and employers 20%

Unless it's extended again, i wouldn't expect to see real change in behaviour before October 

Another lockdown? Watch what Rishi does. 

 

They extended the Covid laws in March 2021 for another year. That in itself speaks volumes.

[Lightscribe]

45 minutes ago, Rave said:

No, you completely misrepresented what was said within it, hence my objection. You stated that taking the Pfizer vaccine makes people 8 times more susceptible to catching the SA variant, and that's simply not what the study shows.

I didn’t say catching it, I said ‘at risk’ which I have amended what I should have said above. That’s my last post on the matter, I’ve have already outlined the point I was making.

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, Cattle Prod said:

6 months, I think

You are correct ... my memory is shite these days!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/25/uk-emergency-covid-rules-extended-another-six-months-coronavirus-act

[DurhamBorn]

Inflation will decide how long this goes on.Once its over 3% and remains there QE will slow down and then stop.Governments then will be facing a huge structural deficit.Then government will have to hold down spending so inflation can do its work.

 

[feed]

Remember the state fears mass unemployment more than anything else.  The lockdowns are unenforceable without the furlough money.  If it gets extended, then we see another shutdown over winter 21/22

No shutdown.  Then we get people pulling money out of savings to either spend it in an open market, or to cover costs as they lost their income.  And that could be a market crash trigger.

[JMD]

55 minutes ago, NogintheNog said:

The figures from the ONS quoted every evening are the ones that vex me.

'X' number of deaths from any cause within 28 days of a positive test?

So we have 125,000+ deaths from Covid, but how many of that figure actually died of Covid? How many of them were going to die anyway, and picked up Covid on the way? Sadly I have an Aunt who is part of those figures. She has had cancer over the last two years and was given 3 months to live late last year. She was moved into a hospice where she was tested and found to have Covid. She sadly passed away a few weeks later, but she didn't die on a ventilator but from the effect of the tumour.

We'll never know how many more would have died if we had not locked down, how much worse would it have been???

NogintheNog, sorry to hear of your own family loss, and I have begun to hear similar stories on radio phone-ins. The alarming thing is that the callers were telling how their relative's death was recorded as covid, despite them not even being tested and of showing no symptoms (like your aunt they had a terminal illness). You say your Aunt was tested, and that she has become part of the figures, but just to be clear can i ask what your Aunt's death certificate had recorded as cause of death, was it the tumour or was it covid?

Excuse me asking, but the reason i do so is that these type of stories coming from hospices, or where the person has died at home, but always from a diagnosed terminal illnesses, but that their deaths are recorded as covid deaths - are for me a proof of the manipulation of the statistics. But alarmingly, when i mention these types of things to others, they are totally unconcerned. What are the true death figures?... i have written before i think them far lower, but even if 120,000 did die in the first year, i personally believe that the casual/cack-handed/callous? closing down of the NHS will cause far more deaths, yet to emerge over the coming few years.

[Chewing Grass]

Just now, feed said:

Remember the state fears mass unemployment more than anything else.  The lockdowns are unenforceable without the furlough money.  If it gets extended, then we see another shutdown over winter 21/22

No shutdown.  Then we get people pulling money out of savings to either spend it in an open market, or to cover costs as they lost their income.  And that could be a market crash trigger.

Its looking increasingly likely that I will have to start drawing my first pension (which doesn't trigger MPAA) some time after August courtesy of having worked non stop for the last year, having to shut my Ltd Co, going PAYE and taking a pay cut to boot.

So yes I will be pulling money to cover lost income and minimise haemorrhaging what is left to tax but still won't break even and will be bringing in less money than 2017.

There comes a point when as a worker you have to give-up chasing the impossible.

[King Penda]

16 minutes ago, feed said:

Remember the state fears mass unemployment more than anything else.  The lockdowns are unenforceable without the furlough money.  If it gets extended, then we see another shutdown over winter 21/22

No shutdown.  Then we get people pulling money out of savings to either spend it in an open market, or to cover costs as they lost their income.  And that could be a market crash trigger.

That’s ok if people have saveings most don’t 

[feed]

8 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Good points. The other element is that the BK is unlikely to be triggered from within the UK, but the US. The UK follows, not leads. And the US is not going to lock down again this winter: it will be vaccinated, so there will be no hospital pressure this time. Individual states make their own decisions on lockdowns despite Biden's administration toeing the line, significant states like Texas and Florida are fully open with no restrictions and have banned vaccine passports. It could be that your second option is triggered in the US, and the locked down UK gets whacked with it while paying millions of people to sit at home and do nothing. There are also enough independent voices in Europe that won't tolerate more lockdowns, like Denmark and Germany. I'm thinking that these latest smoke signals from the Johnston Junta are more to do with stupidity and attempted arse covering. It explains why they are not letting the vaccine take credit "but we protected you, vote for us/don't put up in front of a judge".

Completely agree.

I expect there is a battle going on within our state, between the Marxists that want another shutdown, and the career politicians that have an innate sense of self preservation.
Could still go either way, I guess.  But I don’t see them holding onto another lockdown without another massive cash injection and who holds the purse strings.  
 

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, stokiescum said:

When furlow ends lots are in for a surprise 

If it gets that far, I'm unsure of what the lag is going to be, but if the savings of the past year start to get splurged then late summer is likely to get hot in more ways than one!  Been a long time since we have seen money velocity increase substantially in a short period of time.

[DurhamBorn]

15 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Its looking increasingly likely that I will have to start drawing my first pension (which doesn't trigger MPAA) some time after August courtesy of having worked non stop for the last year, having to shut my Ltd Co, going PAYE and taking a pay cut to boot.

So yes I will be pulling money to cover lost income and minimise haemorrhaging what is left to tax but still won't break even and will be bringing in less money than 2017.

There comes a point when as a worker you have to give-up chasing the impossible.

Iv earned less than i did when i was 29 for the last 20 years  at least from paid work  .I measure success these days on how much the state gets from me and my family.Iv measured success not on income,but on how long i have to be somewhere getting paid.The thing i always chased as a worker was becoming not a worker.I do now consider the tax allowance though as a maybe.Clown world they have created.

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

Exactly this. Perhaps I should have worded it better and said ‘South Africa variant proved to be eight times more prevalent among tested patients’ instead of at risk. But it doesn’t add anymore to the point I was making. Look at the reactions in the comment section.

If the MSM articles places seeds of doubt in the population it will cause vaccine hesitancy (like AZ and JJ currently) which will effect the wider economy, again like this article.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/michigan-covid-test-positive-vaccinated-b1827393.html

I couldn’t care less about the scientific studies behind it (this isn’t a Covid/vax thread), it’s the narrative and wider effect on the population that matters in the economy, and it’s the government that will control that narrative whichever way they wish the direction to go.
 

 

Exactly right, it is the 'negative vaccine narrative', being promulgated by our (putative?) media that is interesting. After all, previous to this, the media had absolutely no interest in telling us of anything outside of 'the official government line', eg alternatives to 'lockdown' (what a phrase to introduce to the lexicon?), etc...

...hmm, so anyway if vaccine hesitancy/vaccine effectiveness/vaccine danger!! (take your pick, these media story variants/mutations?!? are coming fast and furious) IS THE government line, then as others here have commented, in terms of the thread thesis - the BK event must surely be baked in?  

[Mapper]

43 minutes ago, feed said:

When does the furlough scheme end? The furlough scheme is currently set to run until September 30.

Furloughed employees will continue to receive up to 80% of their pay for hours not worked while the scheme continues:

From July, the government will contribute 70% and employers will have to pay 10% for hours not worked
In August and September the government will pay 60% and employers 20%

Fuck me dead! Wasn't that the same thing the Ministry of Information put out in 2020?

At this rate, we'll never win the war with Oceania.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, NogintheNog said:

I think it is more likely that international holiday travel will take a hit first to ensure that no nasty vaccine resistant variants enter the UK...

They will still enter of course via some businessman travelling essentially with his family in tow

We used to go skiing in the Lech/St Anton area and I would smile at Zug seeing the ad at the hotel for the international Cardio conference.  Is there a society or two the SAGE guys belong to I could join that have nice conferences?

[feed]

1 hour ago, NogintheNog said:

They will still enter of course via some businessman travelling essentially with his family in tow

Funny you should say that.  Our place, yesterday

Travel Update 
Travel continues to be restricted to business essential only.  The information below provides updates on traveling, approval levels and necessary resources that will assist in trip planning.

Approval Levels
We are returning to previous Corporate Approval Authorities for travel and the COVID restrictions and incremental approval requirements are eliminated.  

 

[Talking Monkey]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its more your area than mine Harley,but something doesnt smell right does it.In one way it points to what i expected in them needing a huge excuse to boost investment spending and kick in reflation,but there seems more.The fact corporates seem to be more interested in woke than shareholders etc.

Regulation can destroy,or should we say transfer capital in an instant and as you say is growing into a huge risk.

Last year I thought similar that it was the excuse to kick in relation but has looked like there's more to it for a long while now. Very worrying. 

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Exactly this. Perhaps I should have worded it better and said ‘South Africa variant proved to be eight times more prevalent among tested patients’ instead of at risk. But it doesn’t add anymore to the point I was making. Look at the reactions in the comment section.

If the MSM articles places seeds of doubt in the population it will cause vaccine hesitancy (like AZ and JJ currently) which will effect the wider economy, again like this article.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/michigan-covid-test-positive-vaccinated-b1827393.html

I couldn’t care less about the scientific studies behind it (this isn’t a Covid/vax thread), it’s the narrative and wider effect on the population that matters in the economy, and it’s the government that will control that narrative whichever way they wish the direction to go.

People gotta think for themselves and trust no-one, which most probably won't so there may be chopiness generally as the gaps close.  A typical vaccine mutation characteristic is it is more virulent but less harmless than the original.  Now when they say a variant is more virulent but does not seem to be more harmful, that's making it sound as bad as possible if that should actually be "less harmful".  Not opening a virus discussion, just illustrating the need to be careful.  But then if you have been listening to CEOs for a few years, you learn and develop the filter!  To quote: It's what they don't say that's as important!  For us, that could mean more extremes and volatility as they zig zag around reality.

PS:  Reading that later post about the 25% of covid not being covid makes me think maybe not a zig zag so much as just closing the gap back to reality, like an aircraft after a bumpy flight has to align itself with the landing runway.

[Talking Monkey]

54 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Inflation will decide how long this goes on.Once its over 3% and remains there QE will slow down and then stop.Governments then will be facing a huge structural deficit.Then government will have to hold down spending so inflation can do its work.

 

That's one thing that may stop this madness. They've got only so much runway where they can offer goodies whilst they slowly ratchet up the orwellian nonsense. Maybe the idiocy will subside once QE is no longer an option 

[leonardratso]

3 hours ago, stokiescum said:

No chance they love it other than a mask in supermarkets and 1 2 week period off school for the lad I’ve been lucky and unaffected mainly.no tests or jabs.the biggest cause for concern has been my weight gain which is my fault and the obvious clinical depression in lots of friends

hey fatty, stop going to the fridge, or if you cant then move the fridge to the next town and away from the settee by at least a mile.

[planit]

2 hours ago, NogintheNog said:

The figures from the ONS quoted every evening are the ones that vex me.

'X' number of deaths from any cause within 28 days of a positive test?

So we have 125,000+ deaths from Covid, but how many of that figure actually died of Covid? How many of them were going to die anyway, and picked up Covid on the way? Sadly I have an Aunt who is part of those figures. She has had cancer over the last two years and was given 3 months to live late last year. She was moved into a hospice where she was tested and found to have Covid. She sadly passed away a few weeks later, but she didn't die on a ventilator but from the effect of the tumour.

We'll never know how many more would have died if we had not locked down, how much worse would it have been???

Quarter of Covid deaths not caused by virus, new figures show

 

 

I have been waiting for an article like this for ages.

 

Regarding what Boris and Trudeau say, you need to apply the same rules as with the BOE and the FED:

They decide what outcome they want and from that they work out the best thing to say to give the highest chance of the outcome happening. 

I read the British Psychological Society want to take the government to court for exactly this as the government are damaging people with their actions.

 

Regarding lockdowns next winter, I see no evidence this will happen, the figures are better than people hoped for with vaccines but no one wants to call it yet in case they are wrong.

Look here: Covid: 'Israel may be reaching herd immunity'

From the article - A leading Israeli doctor believes the country may be close to reaching "herd immunity"

But there is this:

Prof Eyal Leshem, a director at Israel's largest hospital, the Sheba Medical Center, said herd immunity was the "only explanation" for the fact that cases continued to fall even as more restrictions were lifted.

 

The report mentioned earlier regarding the higher prevalence of the South Africa strain is also crap, there was a similar article regarding cases in Michigan affecting young people (which was actually caused by the older people being vaccinated). Best to ignore all this noise or you will make bad investment decisions.

 

In my opinion we are getting close to the end of the worry regarding Europe's cases so markets will start looking beyond this current wave. The rapid move up in oil etc that DB mentioned might happen.

The biggest risk to everything is America and China suffering from new waves.

 

 

[sancho panza]

10 hours ago, Rave said:

Having had two doses of Pfizer the idea that it makes me 8 times more prone to catching the SA variant alarmed me somewhat, so I thought I'd better click on your link to see if it's true.

And fortunately it's not. In fact it's total bollocks.

What the study actually found was that, of 400 people who have been vaccinated and yet still contracted covid, 5%, so presumably a grand total of 22 people, had the SA variant. They then compared that with 400 people who had not been vaccinated and caught covid, and found that only 0.7% of them had the SA variant.

What the study, which by the way hasn't yet been peer reviewed, does not seem to have concerned itself with is any attempt to compare the covid infection rates of people who have been vaccinated with people who have not. Even if you accept that the study has been done properly and that you can get meaningful results from such small numbers, all that can be inferred from it is that the Pfizer vaccine is less effective at preventing infection by the SA variant than it is at preventing infection by other variants. There is absolutely nothing in it at all to suggest that it increases the SA variant infection rate by 8 times.

Now I have no particular axe to grind here; obviously I have had the vaccine but I really don't particularly care if other people make an informed choice not to get it. The problem I have is that if people misinterpret scientific studies and then post their misinterpretation on the internet as fact, then that makes it harder for other people to make an informed choice. And pretty much all the studies I've seen show that the Pfizer vaccine, while expensive to buy and store, is both highly effective and as safe as you can reasonably expect a vaccine to be. If someone didn't take it based on your misinterpretation of a study that's pretty limited to start with, I think that would be a bit off, frankly.

And so because of that, rather than just to be a prick, I feel justified in doing the following.

@geordie_lurch @invalid @The Idiocrat @Fully Detached @sancho panza Please be aware that the above post which you marked as 'informative' completely misinterprets the scientific study it links to.

I read the article and the reason I found it informative was that it highlighted,albeit as you point out,in a non peer reviewed study,the possibility that people who've been vaccinated can catch still catch covid. @Lightscribedid misinterpret what was in it but you can link to peer reviewed studies and misinterpret what's in them.I'd assume that anyone who's read the article and marked the post informative has similarly read the article.

You've assumed that I marked Lightscribe's post informative without reading the article from what I can see.

In terms of taking the vaccine,I'd agree that everyone has to weigh their risk profile individually.

The whole issue of peer review is important,hence one might attach more significance to articles that are. However,much like official inflation figures,some anecdotal evidence can potentially give you an insight that's not currently available from offically compiled stats .In terms of peer review,I'm still waiting(as is the world of lockdown sceptics) for Prof Neil Ferguson to publish the computer model he used to create his original wildly inaccurate covid fatality predictions in 2020.

 

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

C'mon, wisdom of the crowd!

@Agent ZigZag posted that the authorities don't know what to do as the system has run out of road.  Maybe the crowds sense it too and are milking it as well!  I predict depravity and orgy until the Huns turn up!