Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[CVG]

13 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

The problem with silver is just the space it takes up compared to the same value in gold

 

 

I've got a shopping bag full of the stuff and it's still only worth a few thousand!

[planit]

36 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Took a look don't seem to be able to locate there holdings page anywhere so will not be able to track it, this is the issue alot companies don't publicly show their holdings which is understandable

Sometimes 3rd party sites may show them but they don't seem to keep up with updates

Shall read the PDF though thanks..

If you want silver without the huge premiums then BullionVault is greets for the fee's which few others have said to be high maybe i actually think they are quite reasonable for what they are providing 

Storage

Easy access to deal

Liquidity (hopefully)

The problem with silver is just the space it takes up compared to the same value in gold

 

 

Not sure exactly what holdings you want but there is a company list on the PDF near the bottom.

[Harley]

@BurntBread just been reading more of your narrative 'What I have learned from the "Credit deflation"'.  You're surely a shoe in for this year's  "Durham Award for Excellence"!  Many thanks.

 

[DoINeedOne]

17 hours ago, JMD said:

 

@DoINeedOne the publishers of the above report, used to show their own portfolio of 'real asset' type stocks, but checking on their site now, i cant locate it, however thought i'd just mention this in case it could be of use for your 'thread inflation list' that you maintain? 

3Fourteen Research | Manage Risk. Exploit Opportunity.

 

 

41 minutes ago, planit said:

Not sure exactly what holdings you want but there is a company list on the PDF near the bottom.

The idea behinds tracking funds is how there holdings change over time (new companies added etc....)

The PDF whilst still not read it yet does have a list of companies at the end but anyone can track them on a watchlist for me and the idea behind tracking inflation funds i need to compare it to

if a change is detected

That would be a holdings page of a fund 

[JMD]

14 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Why don't we hire a mini-bus with @sancho panza driving (as he seems sensible reading his posts :-) @Harley can give directions AND then give BOLLOCKINGS if he gets LOST!!!

 

Meanwhile I will supply the YRS BEER...in the back we shall be listening to @DurhamBorn 's repertoire of stories, ranging from when he throws someone through a window, to scavenging cigarettes from the local tip to GOURMET pizza making etc, etc...!

 

@MrXxxx will take Kenneth Williams Role AND keep everyone in order, however will probably end up in a altercation with BIG FUN @nirvana as he will be OUT OF CONTROL!

 

NICE!

 

This event is STRICTLY on a first-come, first-served basis SO...

YRS, do you really have the best interests of this thread at heart? I am very suspicious that you'd suggest something so utterly crazy as a 'Reflationista Thread Group' meet-up!! Are you crazy man, that's just what 'they'(!) are waiting for - after all, it would only take a single drone strike and... oops, hope i haven't said too much already?!?

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

@BurntBread just been reading more of your narrative 'What I have learned from the "Credit deflation"'.  You're surely a shoe in for this year's  "Durham Award for Excellence"!  Many thanks.

 

Harley, please don't post offensive ('woke') videos on here!!

[DurhamBorn]

Should we set up  Ltd  and buy this up the road from me?.Its still got the bank vault in it,we might even be able to fit @Errol s stash in there and @Harley would be all kinds of happy renovating those locks .

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/106071926#/

[reformed nice guy]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56912064

Sainsburys had increased their sales but still put in a £261 million loss

Quote

"grocery sales up 7.8%, general merchandise sales up 8.3% and digital sales up 102%"

Underlying basic earnings per share down 41%

Return on capital employed down from 7.4% to 5.5%

So despite massive government bungs (cheap loans, furlough etc) they made a great big loss.

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Absolutely love this graph. Remember it when you hear a forecast, they're always wrong.

 

It's just astonishing to think each one of those 'hairs' is a forecast based on a team of 'analysts' making six figure salaries. So, so much wrong. That's why I listen to the likes of DH and @DurhamBorn who say "timing is impossible, roadmap only gives direction".

 

Exactly and one of the first things i learned on macro.Destination.Cross market across it.People get way way too interested in the smallest detail when its the big swoop that counts.Getting a roadmap sorted out means you dont waste your time on all the noise.The crazy thing is as well its people who are way clever who make the mistake the most.I spent 5 minutes per balance sheet when i was buying last March.If some had gone under,well tough.I didnt have time.More interested in how the Fed would react and map that than worry if BT had too big a pension deficit,or if some Swedish schoolgirl said oil was finished.Truth is it doesnt matter what the managers do compared to if they can put prices up by 4% a year.

The huge institutions who manage multi billions are interested in every short term move as they have people over their shoulders all the time.5 years might as well be the afterlife to them.We dont have that problem.

We are where we expected with lots of bumps along the way as always.

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56912064

Sainsburys had increased their sales but still put in a £261 million loss

So despite massive government bungs (cheap loans, furlough etc) they made a great big loss.

Push inflation  

[DurhamBorn]

@Cattle Prod i think whats interesting this cycle is how the Fed do tighten.They might actually go to interest rate increases rather than QE removal after the initial tightening.Removing liquidity will cause an incredible bust.Tightening the cost of money might not.Thats the conversation i would be having if i was on the board.Tighten slightly through rates while leaving M3 high.Not yet of course.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

Harley, please don't post offensive ('woke') videos on here!!

Yep, it's a blooming miracle @BurntBreadmanaged to turn them!

[Harley]

44 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Push inflation  

Plus a dollop of wokeism and treating their non-NHS customers like shite!  Another one I'm waiting to dump.

[DurhamBorn]

6 minutes ago, Harley said:

Plus a dollop of wokeism and treating their non-NHS customers like shite!  Another one I'm waiting to dump.

Give price reductions to overweight NHS managers while raising prices for low paid factory workers working with zero social distancing.I sometimes wander in at 6.30pm when they do reductions as nobody is ever in to fight over them.Seems like a lowly declining business.

[janch]

21 hours ago, Animal Spirits said:

We are now on QE5 which intuitively tells you that this flood of liquidity has not made its way into the real economy.

I'm also wondering about this as house prices are still on the rise everywhere it would seem.  The average is 12%pa in US:

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/

Is this a temporary thing before the bust? 

[Fully Detached]

On 25/04/2021 at 23:26, DurhamBorn said:

As you say the currency would collapse,BOE has little power once the Fed moves.On housing buy one in Redcar now and move up here.Im very worried that we are going to see big house price gains up here while the south is whacked.Loads of southern accents up here now and more every day.Benefit claims of course,but also other people.

Personally I'd feel rather guilty about doing that since I know you don't want soft Southerners coming in and trashing house prices in your area.

...but that didn't stop me looking anyway 

Question - from the very limited search I did, a decent 3 bed semi looks about £160-£180k, is that about right? If so I'm thinking I can do the same in the Swansea area and i) not piss you off and ii) keep the wife happy that she's closer to her mother.

I've heard a few people lately talking about house prices in the regions "levelling up" and I'm wondering if I might be better forgetting all this investment business for now and just buying a place in Swansea area for £170k or so. The idea feels simultaneously lazy and kind of relaxing.

[DurhamBorn]

7 minutes ago, Fully Detached said:

Personally I'd feel rather guilty about doing that since I know you don't want soft Southerners coming in and trashing house prices in your area.

...but that didn't stop me looking anyway 

Question - from the very limited search I did, a decent 3 bed semi looks about £160-£180k, is that about right? If so I'm thinking I can do the same in the Swansea area and i) not piss you off and ii) keep the wife happy that she's closer to her mother.

I've heard a few people lately talking about house prices in the regions "levelling up" and I'm wondering if I might be better forgetting all this investment business for now and just buying a place in Swansea area for £170k or so. The idea feels simultaneously lazy and kind of relaxing.

You could probably get a nice one for around £140k.The racecourse area is nice and close to the train station.Im going down Asda to buy a load of Heinz tins,they have them on 50p at the moment,but il have a look later and see whats up for sale.

[Bobthebuilder]

9 minutes ago, Fully Detached said:

I've heard a few people lately talking about house prices in the regions "levelling up" and I'm wondering if I might be better forgetting all this investment business for now and just buying a place in Swansea area for £170k or so. The idea feels simultaneously lazy and kind of relaxing.

Have you had a look in the Templecombe area?

[Fully Detached]

4 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Have you had a look in the Templecombe area?

In Somerset? I did set a large search area South of Bath last year in that sort of dead area with no traffic links, but the prices were going nuts from this time last year so I dropped it. Just looking at Templecombe +10 miles now there's not much around for £180k, which is as high as I'd like to go as I want to hang on to my land and PMs and ideally the crypto. I don't mind offsetting a mortgage against some of it but I'd like to be able to clear any debt obligation quickly if I needed to (and hopefully keep the upside of the hard assets!)

[Bobthebuilder]

3 minutes ago, Fully Detached said:

In Somerset? I did set a large search area South of Bath last year in that sort of dead area with no traffic links, but the prices were going nuts from this time last year so I dropped it. Just looking at Templecombe +10 miles now there's not much around for £180k, which is as high as I'd like to go as I want to hang on to my land and PMs and ideally the crypto. I don't mind offsetting a mortgage against some of it but I'd like to be able to clear any debt obligation quickly if I needed to (and hopefully keep the upside of the hard assets!)

Yeah south Somerset, road links are a bit terrible. I just had a look and prices have definitely gone up since I last looked. Nice bit of the world though and a train station.

[Fully Detached]

3 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Yeah south Somerset, road links are a bit terrible. I just had a look and prices have definitely gone up since I last looked. Nice bit of the world though and a train station.

And ziderrr!!  

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.mtdmfg.com/news/saint-gobain-to-invest-30-million-at-its-east-yorkshire-glass-factory/?fbclid=IwAR32U8sziE5FhBQDf2qwJVnNhTWJA1uHaQRaCQxJcWdtaB1frZL9XJYcIug

See how things that cost a lot to transport are all coming back.High energy use as well glass making.

The narrative was all manufacturing would leave after Brexit/China etc.This is where macro roadmaps pick up what is about to start to happen before it does.The roadmap showed prices increasing etc so shortened supply chains would be needed.This will be ongoing for 7+ years now with some bumps in the road.

Wage increases will follow in the private sector.

 

[Harley]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Give price reductions to overweight NHS managers while raising prices for low paid factory workers working with zero social distancing.I sometimes wander in at 6.30pm when they do reductions as nobody is ever in to fight over them.Seems like a lowly declining business.

Told me no more home deliveries and I assumed I was just filth.

[JMD]

A few reports. They might be a bit long, but well researched and well worth reading i think, especially if you are invested in energy or commodity sectors.

 

Round up of energy market, highlighting the green false narrative by the world 'authorities': 

2020.Q4 Goehring & Rozencwajg Market Commentary.pdf (hubspotusercontent40.net)

 

The Dutch have produced these two studies showing their own predicted future commodity demand in relation to them transitioning into a renewable economy. Unbiased review of how challenging it will, but this is for a small country of 17 million people. The crunch-point is there not being enough near-term commodity supply, but scale the findings up to represent 1bn Westerners (ie. no one else will be embarking on doing this mad stuff!) and how are the 2050 ambitions ever going to be possible? Actually the above report does speak about the willful twisting of stats going on, in order to make the very ambitious 'climate rescue plans' look workable, e.g. things like anticipating that energy demand in non-OECD countries over next 20 years is expected to fall by 25%!!

Metal Demand for Electric Vehicles - Metabolic

Metal Demand for Renewable Electricity Generation in the Netherlands (metabolic.nl)

 

[Harley]

7 minutes ago, JMD said:

A few reports. They might be a bit long, but well researched and well worth reading i think, especially if you are invested in energy or commodity sectors.

 

Round up of energy market, highlighting the green false narrative by the world 'authorities': 

2020.Q4 Goehring & Rozencwajg Market Commentary.pdf (hubspotusercontent40.net)

 

The Dutch have produced these two studies showing their own predicted future commodity demand in relation to them transitioning into a renewable economy. Unbiased review of how challenging it will, but this is for a small country of 17 million people. The crunch-point is there not being enough near-term commodity supply, but scale the findings up to represent 1bn Westerners (ie. no one else will be embarking on doing this mad stuff!) and how are the 2050 ambitions ever going to be possible? Actually the above report does speak about the willful twisting of stats going on, in order to make the very ambitious 'climate rescue plans' look workable, e.g. things like anticipating that energy demand in non-OECD countries over next 20 years is expected to fall by 25%!!

Metal Demand for Electric Vehicles - Metabolic

Metal Demand for Renewable Electricity Generation in the Netherlands (metabolic.nl)

 

@Frank Hovismade a very insightful post on another thread about car usage, pointing out that the authorities here and in the US have done little to prepare the infrastructure for the massive implications of increased electric vehicles, etc.  Something I have also seen mentioned on several podcasts (i.e. scratching of heads and a feeling it's almost impossible to deliver in California).  Then the penny drops - maybe they don't intend for us all to have cars, just "them".  Maybe that's how to read these things.  They're thinking of a lot more changes!  Think it best I keep my SGC, etc!