Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[JimmyTheBruce]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

You looked at Anglo Pacific

https://www.investing.com/equities/anglo-pacific-group

Coal and Uranium...

 

Yep, got a bit of that too, didn't realise they did coal.

I'm taking spray and pray to a whole new level.  I think at the last count I had over 120 different shares.  Got a bit worried at the talk on here about having 30 to 50 max, but I can't help having a little dabble if something looks nice.  I'm reassured by the fact that the bulk of the value is concentrated in the usual suspects discussed here.

[JimmyTheBruce]

2 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

That's been the way of things for my lifetime. But I'm telling my kids to be the sort of person they want to see in the world.

I'm getting the impression that at these points in history, what was 'ceases to be', and what isn't becomes 'what is'.

And not just economically.

 

1 hour ago, wherebee said:

I suspect you are right.  The future, I suspect, will be a lot different in terms of useless bottom feeders being able to get someone else to pay for their Xbox

I sincerely hope so.  I'm sick and tired of being gobsmacked at the price of things and then walking through the council estate and discovering that I'm the only person who can't afford it.

[MrXxxx]

3 hours ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

I've come to realise that conscientiousness/pride/work ethic or whatever you want to call it, is what companies take advantage of to shit all over you.

It's difficult, because nobody wants to spend 8 hours a day filling time, but I'm done with caring about top notch delivery until I'm properly recompensed for it.

You've just described my employer...well, until recently!

[TNS]

Vodafone nearing 7% div yield !

[CVG]

23 minutes ago, TheNickos said:

Vodafone nearing 7% div yield !

Funny that. For me, it's vying with RIO for receipt of the RIO/AAL dividends and a top slice from BP. Sell High, Buy Low.

[JMD]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

You looked at Anglo Pacific

https://www.investing.com/equities/anglo-pacific-group

Coal and Uranium...

 

Yes, I bought some Anglo Pacific. Always looking for different ways to get exposure to uranium. I don't have enough uranium exposure so always on lookout to get more at hopefully a decent price, particularly since it's run up.

[JMD]

4 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Appreciate that chart there CP.Uncanny the relationship and interplay between price and inventory.I'd love to see that split down into separate parts,say sept/nov 11-sep-14-sep18-sept 2021.It's a bit weird but key turning appear to my untrained eye at those points.i've foudn in the past that this can make the correaltion more compelling.Weird how there's a few septembers there but it msut be the end of the driving season.

There does appear to be a lag between price move and inventroy build/draw which I think you or @DurhamBorn have highlighted before.

The drawdown between about Nov 20 and now has been virtually non stop and with the issues you've highlighted particualrly the 6 years of exploration udner funding only points one way.

Having said all that,I sold our BP/RDSB Oct calls this morning.This run up has converted some humdinging losses into profits and I need to warchest if oil does move higher and we get a few more ticked off the BK checklist of mine,then I'll need the risk moeny for the puts.

I find paragraph 3 rather chiling dnb old chap.....I can't believe the public wish to place themselves in the hands of the hancocks of this world even more than they already have.

He's ex BoE iirc......says a alot .

The programability of cbdc's are why government's like them. To pretend there is a debate going on here about these control features is quiet simply a lie.

[Shamone]

5 hours ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

I've come to realise that conscientiousness/pride/work ethic or whatever you want to call it, is what companies take advantage of to shit all over you.

It's difficult, because nobody wants to spend 8 hours a day filling time, but I'm done with caring about top notch delivery until I'm properly recompensed for it.

I’ve found hard work only ever brings more hard work and often other people’s too.

[Shamone]

41 minutes ago, CVG said:

Funny that. For me, it's vying with RIO for receipt of the RIO/AAL dividends and a top slice from BP. Sell High, Buy Low.

I bought a little bit of vod today.

[Loki]

9 minutes ago, Shamone said:

I bought a little bit of vod today.

Same here.

 

Hic. 

 

I ARE MACROSTRATYJIST NOW

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, TheNickos said:

Vodafone nearing 7% div yield !

Yes, assuming we don't have a BK and they all freeze their dividend payments...one thing I learnt from the last two years is that dividends are not guaranteed.

[Loki]

18 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Yes, assuming we don't have a BK and they all freeze their dividend payments...one thing I learnt from the last two years is that dividends are not guaranteed.

True but the leaving the money in the bank long-term means it just gets devalued...there isn't really much of a perfect safe haven beyond assets you know you will need/use.

[MrXxxx]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

True but the leaving the money in the bank long-term means it just gets devalued...there isn't really much of a perfect safe haven beyond assets you know you will need/use.

Agree, I just wish the BK would get a move on so that I can get out of cash! :-)

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Agree, I just wish the BK would get a move on so that I can get out of cash! :-)

Oh it's doing my bloody head in this slow torture!

 

[Hancock]

6 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Agree, I just wish the BK would get a move on so that I can get out of cash! :-)

what percentage in cash are you?

Including my SIPP im now 60% cash, 40% shares.

My theory is we don't get a BK until they've ended QE and raised rates, then waited a while ... i.e middle/end of next year!

Long time to wait.

[Phil]

Petrofac and RR nice for me today. Happy.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Petrofac and RR nice for me today. Happy.

Not masive amount. 1k but nice. Having a beer on the back of it. 👍

[ThoughtCriminal]

 

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

 

It’s gonna end really really bad. Ride the wave. 

[Lightscribe]

47 minutes ago, Hancock said:

what percentage in cash are you?

Including my SIPP im now 60% cash, 40% shares.

My theory is we don't get a BK until they've ended QE and raised rates, then waited a while ... i.e middle/end of next year!

Long time to wait.

You don’t have to wait until they actually do it, the roadmap and intention laid out is enough for confirmation that

a) inflation isn’t transitory

b) this is the end of a 40 year disinflation cycle going into an inflationary one.

Its up to the banks and financial economy now to price it in, then that’s enough for the catalyst to signal the snowball.

I nailed my colours to the mast some time back that the BK will be by the end of the year.

[Lightscribe]

On 08/03/2021 at 00:04, Lightscribe said:

I know the consensus on here sticks to the roadmap without nailing down to a timeline (after all market stays irrational longer than you can keep solvent etc) and everything could change on a whim through CB policy on a sudden turn of action. 

I will however nail my colours to the mast and give my own estimate/guesstimate. May be a bit dystopian with artistic licence but it’s where I think we are heading.

2021 Q2 - Melt up. Whether that includes FAANGs (i.e David Hunter) is another matter. But certainly tech stocks embroiled in the whiplash of Covid semi-conductor backlog. i.e TSMC, Nvidia (ARM), Texas Instruments. That alongside with Oil, gas, energy, industrial metals and materials and rare earth. 

2021 Q3-Q4 - BK. No not Burger King, but the actual big kahuna burger with extra pickles (opposite to nothing burger). Everything crashes including gold/silver and BTC.

2022 Q1 - more QE. Post pandemic reality  hits (we know this is just the end of the cycle into the new). Jobs lost, inflation hits, post government support, under pressure for UBI. This is the true run in oil/energy/PMs (and IMO BTC). Food shortages in developing countries, costs spiralling.

2022 Q2-4 - CB start to raise interest rates. Government gold/silver/crypto regulation. Executive Order 6102.

2023. UBI implemented. Increased automation and AI in all jobs. Retail, office space left decimated in city centres turned into residential for large scale government/bank owned rental. (Lloyds recently stating becoming biggest BTL owner). Skilled migration and HK money into the cities. Physical cash phased out.

2024 - mortgage defaults as people come out of 2-3 year fixed deals onto standard rates. Government support in exchange for assets. 

2025 - 2030. From here is where things could change massively. Government take overs, majority stakes in land, transport and infrastructure. Digital currency takes over. Tax, UBI, transactions are all processed in real time and verified on the government blockchain. Sharon tries to claim extra credits in addition to UBI, computer says no. Trevor has location confirmed at that  address for 359 days out of 365, his food, living purchases all been tracked to that address. 

2030 - onwards 

This is the ‘you will own nothing’ stage. There may or may not be a major war over commodities at this point, alongside a currency reset. Global government and currency. I hope this doesn’t happen. 

 

Am I near so far?

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10025373/Britains-blue-collar-workers-earning-MEGA-BUCKS-jobs-crisis-seen-salaries-DOUBLE.html

As we have been saying a lot of the reason is over 50s leaving the workforce (im one) and not being replaced because mostly benefits are too high and so are house prices.

The Guardian meanwhile doesnt seem to think workers should be able to earn more,they should stay on bennies and let other people come over and pluck their turkeys.Maybe the turkey farmer needs to let the Range Rover go and pay more.

Its incredible how the left is now middle class and mostly government workers who only care about their own tiny problems.Workers voted for shortages etc in the short/medium term because the long dis-inflation made it the only way to have a chance in the earnings/housing stakes.Of course The Guardian wont face up to the problem each town hs thousands refusing to work because the bennies are so lucrative.Maybe they are really worried about interest rates goin up on their BTLs

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/24/food-petrol-shortages-brexit-goods-johnson-botched-deal

 

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

You don’t have to wait until they actually do it, the roadmap and intention laid out is enough for confirmation that

a) inflation isn’t transitory

b) this is the end of a 40 year disinflation cycle going into an inflationary one.

Its up to the banks and financial economy now to price it in, then that’s enough for the catalyst to signal the snowball.

I nailed my colours to the mast some time back that the BK will be by the end of the year.

And me. Let em fuckin burn. 

[Harley]

9 hours ago, Loki said:

I wonder if gold is still permitted

They've previously encouraged gold holding.  Problem with crypto is people can get it out of the country.  That, and the power impact on the industrial supply, are cited as reasons they stopped the crypto mining.  This latest move seems logical.

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Harley said:

the power impact on the industrial supply

It makes sense...

I can remember going on about the increasing 'transaction' cost of crypto ages ago... of course the government will give their financial infrastructure priority access to the electrons