Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Barnsey]

 

[Bobthebuilder]

I have been looking at the long term chart for BAT, struggling to pinpoint what changed in June 2017 to put them into what looks like a terminal decline. Was it part of a ftse sell off, change in regulation or was it money going into the rising FAANG stocks? The rise after the dot-com crash until 2017 had been stella, with blips through the 2008 crash but nothing like since 2017.

Edit, Was it the fed tightening and hence this thread?

[Democorruptcy]

7 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I have been looking at the long term chart for BAT, struggling to pinpoint what changed in June 2017 to put them into what looks like a terminal decline. Was it part of a ftse sell off, change in regulation or was it money going into the rising FAANG stocks? The rise after the dot-com crash until 2017 had been stella, with blips through the 2008 crash but nothing like since 2017.

They invested a lot in vaping then wobbles with it set in

https://ecigarettereviewed.com/fda-vaping-ban/

[ThoughtCriminal]

Impressive spike on the chart 

[Don Coglione]

6 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Impressive spike on the chart 

What does this mean, please?

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, janch said:

Larry Fink of Blackrock speaking to the BBC:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55849898

".......starving polluting companies of cash too quickly would mean dramatic job losses.

If we all ran away from the hydrocarbons and everything, and if you ran away with most of those companies in the FTSE [100], the job loss in the United Kingdom would be extraordinary."

 

He sees a gradual transition so oilies will be OK alongside all the greenery.

What he means is he sees massive profits from oilies ahead and wants part of it,so he needs to change the narrative to saving all those poor jobs and doing it slowly.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I have been looking at the long term chart for BAT, struggling to pinpoint what changed in June 2017 to put them into what looks like a terminal decline. Was it part of a ftse sell off, change in regulation or was it money going into the rising FAANG stocks? The rise after the dot-com crash until 2017 had been stella, with blips through the 2008 crash but nothing like since 2017.

Edit, Was it the fed tightening and hence this thread?

They got way ahead of themselves.The market worried they had far too much debt when they took over Reynolds,and i thought that as well.They were giving a yield of about 3.5% back then,too low for a low growth stocks with massive debts.

Since then they have been cut in half and debt has been falling nicely.They have got the balance sheet where they can pay off most debt as it comes due.They now yield 8% and their next gen products are now gaining traction and doing well.

 

[planit]

I know some people have called a top and the market has fallen nearly 8% from peak (FTSE) but this doesn't feel like a BK to me. More of a shake out.

There was a news story on the FT today saying New York is expecting to open up dining mid Feb, the stats are clearly looking very good for the UK now and we are past peak hospital.

I still think there will be a 'recovery in sight' boom and there is a lot of money sloshing around. Perhaps once the market has sucked everyone in we will see the BK.

 

If anyone can give me a good reason we are on the edge of a drop then I might take a more defensive position.

Selling oil stocks this week when the price of oil has not moved doesn't seem logical to me, the fall is just noise.

 

BTW I enjoyed this fun week, hedge funds getting over-confident deserve to go to the wall so the wider market can reappraise risk efficiently (it was a good kick up the arse). 

[MrXxxx]

6 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

THANK f**** for that!

Personally I'd rather have £1K or so coming in monthly divis that f*** about trading that shite!

 

...Meanwhile back at the ranch, I @DurhamBorn @M S E Refugee AND other RMG holders are commmming in their panties as the stock is OVER £4 QUID! 

 

Are ya in on this @MrXxxx  ?

 

Wish I was....was going to buy when they were 144 but was too cautious...did the same with gold!...when will I learn? :-(

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, planit said:

I know some people have called a top and the market has fallen nearly 8% from peak (FTSE) but this doesn't feel like a BK to me. More of a shake out.

There was a news story on the FT today saying New York is expecting to open up dining mid Feb, the stats are clearly looking very good for the UK now and we are past peak hospital.

I still think there will be a 'recovery in sight' boom and there is a lot of money sloshing around. Perhaps once the market has sucked everyone in we will see the BK.

 

If anyone can give me a good reason we are on the edge of a drop then I might take a more defensive position.

Selling oil stocks this week when the price of oil has not moved doesn't seem logical to me, the fall is just noise.

 

BTW I enjoyed this fun week, hedge funds getting over-confident deserve to go to the wall so the wider market can reappraise risk efficiently (it was a good kick up the arse). 

We can never be sure but all im seeing is more and more conformation the roadmap is intact and in motion.

One of the key themes of the cycle was that countries would onshore more and more production even if it meant higher prices and this weeks EU arguments over vaccines show that we are moving along that road nicely.Inflation needs a few things in modern economies.It needs liquidity filling the pipes to bursting,then it needs a pulse.

Another almost certain thing to this cycle is that the market will keep shaking out people who think +20% is all value/inflation stocks have when actually there is 200% to 300% coming including dividends in many areas.

I like to see falls as divis roll in and stocks that run up really hard can be top sliced.Plus the Scottish play looks primes for a big run up 

 

2 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Wish I was....was going to buy when they were 144 but was too cautious...did the same with gold!...when will I learn? :-(

Use ladders,removes the emotion as much as possible.

[TMM]

17 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Wish I was....was going to buy when they were 144 but was too cautious...did the same with gold!...when will I learn? :-(

You're not on your own! I've been reading the thread here and on TOS, if only...

[Errol]

First Majestic is the next target for WallStreetbets. They are discussing it in a variety of places.

[Talking Monkey]

31 minutes ago, Errol said:

First Majestic is the next target for WallStreetbets. They are discussing it in a variety of places.

That would be epic if they started going at silver miners

[AWW]

They should try to break COMEX. I think it's eminently do-able.

Just buy up silver contracts with the same expiry and stand for delivery.

[Noallegiance]

22 minutes ago, AWW said:

They should try to break COMEX. I think it's eminently do-able.

Just buy up silver contracts with the same expiry and stand for delivery.

As we know these controlling players monitor social media chatter, I'd expect such a move on the PM sphere to be stamped out quick-sharp.

[Bricks & Mortar]

1 hour ago, Errol said:

First Majestic is the next target for WallStreetbets. They are discussing it in a variety of places.

Robinhood has restricted AG, and SLV to only a single share per person.  I'm livid about it.  It cuts right into the idea of a fair market.
Declaration:  Been holding AG, and waiting for things to start moving as Biden admin starts talking electric cars and solar panels.  It happens, silver moves, and these jerks manipulate the market to reduce demand.  WTF!

https://investorplace.com/2021/01/robinhood-bans-reddit-stocks-wallstreetbets-gme-cciv-sndl-jagx-amc-nok-bb/

 

[Harley]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Plus the Scottish play looks primes for a big run up 

Funny, I noticed the same!  Things really are 50:50 atm on a number of value stocks.  Another monthly candle completes this weekend so a time to review.  All quite exciting.  I watched a bit of Cramer tonight about GME and he just said hallelujah, a stock pickers market!

PS:. To add, my main concern with the Scottish play was whether this was more a sign of a late stage bull run.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, AWW said:

They should try to break COMEX. I think it's eminently do-able.

Just buy up silver contracts with the same expiry and stand for delivery.

Didn't they change the contracts a while back to potential cash settlement?

[Harley]

2 hours ago, planit said:

BTW I enjoyed this fun week, hedge funds getting over-confident deserve to go to the wall so the wider market can reappraise risk efficiently (it was a good kick up the arse).

It's given those reading up on it a good look under the covers to prep for, as I used to bang on about!  We've been warned!  WSB today, whatever tomorrow, the systemic risks are the same and pretty much any inconceivable thing could happen at such a turning.

[Loki]

7 minutes ago, Harley said:

Didn't they change the contracts a while back to potential cash settlement?

I remember hearing about it, that's my understanding too

[Noallegiance]

30 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Robinhood has restricted AG, and SLV to only a single share per person.  I'm livid about it.  It cuts right into the idea of a fair market.
Declaration:  Been holding AG, and waiting for things to start moving as Biden admin starts talking electric cars and solar panels.  It happens, silver moves, and these jerks manipulate the market to reduce demand.  WTF!

https://investorplace.com/2021/01/robinhood-bans-reddit-stocks-wallstreetbets-gme-cciv-sndl-jagx-amc-nok-bb/

 

I hate being right about shit stuff.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, AWW said:

They should try to break COMEX. I think it's eminently do-able.

Just buy up silver contracts with the same expiry and stand for delivery.

Comex, naked shorting PM miners, etc, these guys are the top long standing predators.  Only hope is they've become flabby or found god.

[Harley]

Just now, Noallegiance said:

I hate being right about shit stuff.

And I hate being right and not getting paid for it because it's only ever my fault!

[Harley]

32 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Robinhood has restricted AG, and SLV to only a single share per person.  I'm livid about it.  It cuts right into the idea of a fair market.
Declaration:  Been holding AG, and waiting for things to start moving as Biden admin starts talking electric cars and solar panels.  It happens, silver moves, and these jerks manipulate the market to reduce demand.  WTF!

https://investorplace.com/2021/01/robinhood-bans-reddit-stocks-wallstreetbets-gme-cciv-sndl-jagx-amc-nok-bb/

 

Don't get hitting SLV, an ETF, as a strategy.  Too broad a play and plenty to break within the ETF first before hitting the wider market.  The ETF is a bit like a fire break.

[Hancock]

2 hours ago, Errol said:

First Majestic is the next target for WallStreetbets. They are discussing it in a variety of places.

Lets hope so i've £1300 worth of them, just need them to go up 100 times their current value and i can retire a little earlier.