Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DurhamBorn]

36 minutes ago, Hancock said:

As the reflation is reliant on UK based manufacturing/ infrastructure projects, this isn't a good day.

Seems Princess Nut Nut doesn't want a coal mine on her land.
https://www.localgov.co.uk/Public-inquiry-to-be-held-into-Cumbrian-coal-mine/52007

Money and jobs flooding into Teesside,lots more to come as well.I did think they might build an arc furnace on that site,but massive wind turbine factory.GE building the factory.

https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/19150954.major-new-windfarm-port-announced-teesside-3-000-jobs-created/

Also Hitachi is expanding its factory so it can build full trains,already a really big plant.

[DurhamBorn]

29 minutes ago, JREWING said:

TEN YR

Touching 1.6 again.

Gold

Nearing 1700

This free money is forcing up the 10 year. 

My miners will be getting a top up next week.

How high will they allow the 10 yr to march up.

I expect the Fed in at this level to keep the short end down,looking at things i would think they want around 1.2% 

[Hancock]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Money and jobs flooding into Teesside,lots more to come as well.I did think they might build an arc furnace on that site,but massive wind turbine factory.GE building the factory.

https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/19150954.major-new-windfarm-port-announced-teesside-3-000-jobs-created/

Also Hitachi is expanding its factory so it can build full trains,already a really big plant.

No matter where i work on earth there is always a smoggy there, if this carries on they may find work on their doorstep.

[Hancock]

10 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I expect the Fed in at this level to keep the short end down,looking at things i would think they want around 1.2% 

So if the fed step in and get it down to 1.2% is that good or bad for gold/silver.

[goldbug9999]

14 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

In other news...

"Biden signs $1.9 trillion stimulus bill into law on U.S. lockdown anniversary"

I'd like to personally thank Biden for pumping my bitcoin bags, cheers lad, hoping this is first of many.

Seriously though I feel that this genie cannot be put back in the bottle: the helicopter money has to continue and  increase forever just like QE. I'm just wondering at what point the big T bill holders will wake up to the fact this is essentially theft.

 

[MrXxxx]

Must be god news for RR> shareholders i.e. wide-bodied?

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/travel/news/british-airways-may-use-its-biggest-planes-to-fly-tourists-to-europe-this-summer/ar-BB1evzV2?ocid=mailsignout&li=BBoPWjQ

[moneyscam]

10 hours ago, wherebee said:

The only question is do we have crash first, then inflation, or inflation first, then crash.  1929 would suggest the latter?  

 

I'm betting the latter too. Since GFC we've had asset inflation driven by monetary policy that is now going into overdrive. Now we have massive fiscal intervention coming as well which I expect to feed into general prices. At some point the rubber band will be stretched beyond its breaking point and snap. 

I have no clue as to the exact timing of this point, but the more fiscal intervention I see the more I know we are approaching this point.

A useful proxy for inflation expectations is to subtract the US treasury TIPS yield from the US treasury nominal yield (you can also do this for other countries that have inflation linked bonds). This is known as the 'break even rate'. This chart shows inflation expectations rising rapidly.

For more charts and the source of the above chart see here : https://www.yardeni.com/pub/nomrealyield.pdf

[goldbug9999]

1 hour ago, Frank Hovis said:

Journalist on Cornwall Live unable to find anywhere to rent and facing homelessness. Possessions in storage and has contacted Council about emergency housing.

This is the first time I have known a rental crisis and it's very bad.

And ironically coming at a time when the Cornish countryside is being smothered with huge estates of new build housing.

https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/cornwalls-rental-crisis-making-face-5133462

This is IMO because of the 6 month eviction rule - the unintended consequence is that a lot of landlords have opted to issue notice immediately and most will sell because they wont want another tenant they cant get rid of. So the rule is achieving the opposite of what it was supposed to do.

[Barnsey]

Hmm...if this isn't a sign of a melt up then..

 

[goldbug9999]

1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

Prices are cheaper than post-industrial, boring, shit-hole town up North.

I think some people only want the nice locations.

No wonder everyone is selling up and moving somewhere nicer, if I moved I could afford to retire now with my DIY skills.

Those houses arnt "cheap", in any sensible universe they should be going for 30-50k.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

9 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

This is IMO because of the 6 month eviction rule - the unintended consequence is that a lot of landlords have opted to issue notice immediately and most will sell because they wont want another tenant they cant get rid of. So the rule is achieving the opposite of what it was supposed to do.

I expect there is extra demand in Cornwall from people working from home. Better to do that in one of the prettier and warmer parts of the country.

That article unwittingly displays the decline of the local newspaper industry. Not that long ago the wages would have been better and there would have been a sub editor to address the obvious errors. Nadir?

[goldbug9999]

5 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I expect there is extra demand in Cornwall from people working from home. Better to do that in one of the prettier and warmer parts of the country.

That article unwittingly displays the decline of the local newspaper industry. Not that long ago the wages would have been better and there would have been a sub editor to address the obvious errors. Nadir?

The supply of rental properties everywhere outside london has shrunk massively as far as I can tell. Its one of the reasons I decided to buy rather than rent again recently, just so little choice of rentals.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

Paging: @DurhamBorn @Harley @M S E Refugee AND all Royal Mail stock holders HERE...

F****** hell ....Royal Mail ALL TIME HIGH! ...OVER a £ fiver!!!

DB , I expect ya be buying another 20 tins of Aldi corned beef at 1.47p a tin from Brazil, with ya TOP SLICING PROFITS!

 

[M S E Refugee]

3 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Paging: @DurhamBorn @Harley @M S E Refugee AND all Royal Mail stock holders HERE...

F****** hell ....Royal Mail ALL TIME HIGH! ...OVER a £ fiver!!!

DB , I expect ya be buying another 20 tins of Aldi corned beef at 1.47p a tin from Brazil, with ya TOP SLICING PROFITS!

 

I buy them at a big discount through salary sacrifice, its just a pity we can only save £23.07 per week in the scheme.

[Nicolas Turgeon]

On 28/01/2021 at 14:49, leonardratso said:

seems like a good time to fuck up a good fund (now noone will notice);

NINETY ONE ENHANCED NAT RES I ACC - Important Information

 

Proposed Merger of Ninety One Enhanced Natural Resources I ACC (Natural Resources) Fund with Ninety One Global Environment I Acc (Environment) Fund.

Holders will receive New Environment units at a rate yet to be determined.

Important Information & Other Key Dates:

On 6th January 2021 Ninety One announced a proposed Merger of its Natural Resources Fund with its Environment Fund.

The Merger is subject to shareholder approval at the Investor Meeting to be held on 10th February 2021.

Following such approval the Merger is expected to become effective on 5th March 2021..

Should you retain your holding we will update your account upon receipt of the New units which we expect to be on or after the 8th March 2021.

The number of New units issued will be different from the number of units you currently hold due to the price difference between the two Funds . However your New units will have the same value immediately after the Merger as that of your Existing units immediately prior to the Merger.

If you wish to sell your Existing Global Energy Fund units the last day on which they could be sold would be the 4th March 2021. Please ensure any sale requests are submitted to us, leaving sufficient time for the transaction to be processed and prior to the 11.15am deadline.

As with any change in a Fund you should review the latest Key Investor Information Document (KIID). This can be accessed through our online service under the market information section or be requested through our call centre.

Should you wish to find more information about the Merger, please visit the Ninety One website, www.ninetyone.com/

Bringing up the topic of resources funds for the reflation again - now that the Ninety One Natural resources Fund is being got rid of has anyone else noticed the VanEck Natural Resources ETF? Available through Hargreaves under the ticker HAP. Not sure if it would be a decent alternative, but check out some of the holdings below:

Quote

All Holdings (%) as of 11 Mar 2021

Total Holdings: 339

Holding Name	Ticker	Shares	Market Value (US$)	% of Net Assets
Deere & Co	DE US	2,867	1,044,907	10.53
Exxon Mobil Corp	XOM US	5,538	339,535	3.42
Corteva Inc	CTVA US	6,848	320,897	3.23
Nutrien Ltd	NTR US	5,207	304,818	3.07
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co	ADM US	5,090	298,223	3.01
Chevron Corp	CVX US	2,521	280,310	2.83
Kubota Corp	6326 JP	10,600	242,259	2.44
Tyson Foods Inc	TSN US	2,692	199,154	2.01
Bhp Group Ltd	BHP AU	5,414	196,809	1.98
Tractor Supply Co	TSCO US	1,063	180,954	1.82
Total Se	FP FP	3,301	164,796	1.66
Rio Tinto Plc	RIO LN	1,985	160,298	1.62
Cnh Industrial Nv	CNHI US	9,090	141,259	1.42
Reliance Industries Ltd	RIGD LI	2,115	129,227	1.30
Fmc Corp	FMC US	1,185	128,821	1.30
Darling Ingredients Inc	DAR US	1,482	115,833	1.17
Vale Sa	VALE US	6,313	113,760	1.15
Bp Plc	BP/ LN	24,962	111,460	1.12
Conocophillips	COP US	1,781	106,557	1.07
Mosaic Co/The	MOS US	3,156	105,568	1.06
Wilmar International Ltd	WIL SP	26,000	104,101	1.05
Bunge Ltd	BG US	1,277	104,024	1.05
Mowi Asa	MOWI NO	4,116	102,248	1.03
Royal Dutch Shell Plc	RDSB LN	4,854	102,047	1.03
Freeport-Mcmoran Inc	FCX US	2,669	100,007	1.01
Cf Industries Holdings Inc	CF US	1,957	98,907	1.00
Enbridge Inc	ENB US	2,653	96,410	0.97 ... and so on

 

Some familiar names there for us on this forum! Why would it be so heavy on Deere?

Full holdings on the Vaneck website here.

[Chewing Grass]

1 hour ago, goldbug9999 said:

Those houses arnt "cheap", in any sensible universe they should be going for 30-50k.

Thanks to financial quantum mechanics and string theory you live in a parallel universe bordering the fourth dimension therefore price is relative in the central nuclear particle i.e. London.

[Noallegiance]

Looking at a 6 month chart I'd say the rate of increase is accelerating.

Any chance the Fed may have to go hard or go home?

[nirvana]

2 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

F****** hell ....Royal Mail ALL TIME HIGH! ...OVER a £ fiver!!!

if only I'd held on could be with the jet set crew....

instead it's flossy the sheep...

[nirvana]

4 hours ago, JREWING said:

My miners will be getting a top up next week.

 

what you looking to buy? Everything looks like it wants to shit the bed to me with this 'bond contagion'.....even cable is shitting itself 

[Harley]

4 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

It's written by a bot. 

What you heh.  You what and all writing about me bum and what.  Naah, not you do, no you do, not, and all.  I mean, like I was and did, I was I mean, not.  And anyways not, so there.  And gold yeh, so?  A right tart, same as Candice Gibbons at number 47, up and down and stuff that, well like no, ewe, not her.  And anyways not fiat 'cause the judge said no after that stuff and the probabtion being soooo unfair like it mattered which it didn't 'cause Mr Edwards at the corner said no so she had to flash her tits and all instead.  Just for a few cans, like there's a law and stuff and anyways yeh?

[dnb24]

https://m.soundcloud.com/superinvestors/42-adam-rozencwajg-on-the-speculative-mania-in-green-energy-stocks
 

interesting podcast regarding energy - ESG  vs traditional- fits well with the thread

[Lightscribe]

I know this isn’t the place for AIM and small cap miners (with debt, takeovers etc some of the mid-caps may struggle etc) but I thought I may allow a very small calculated punt for any melt up some speculative high risk miners.

Channeling @kibuc have any of these come on your radar? Appreciate any views you may have, as I’ve seen them been mentioned in a few places now.

Nicola mining

https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/market-data/stock-quote/nicola-mining.html

Aurcana Silver

https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/market-data/stock-quote/aurcana-silver.html

Blue Lagoon resources

https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/market-data/stock-quote/blue-lagoon-resources.html

Irving Resources

https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/market-data/stock-quote/irving-resources.html

[nirvana]

51 minutes ago, nirvana said:

Everything looks like it wants to shit the bed to me

what a complete knob, just got raped trying to short Nasdaq...

BuY THE DIPS YOU COCK! The wicks were telling you what was coming...

fucker has bounced like a lovely pair of juicy titties........shut up you child! 

NURSE! 

edit...can't even feckin spell either 

[nirvana]

kinnel I've just been on the now infamous FF to check inflation news 

BLoody mario Draghi is now President of ITALY! Fucker gets everywhere 

There's this geezer on there who is a multi-millionaire and all the fucker seems to do is buy the dips on the DOW all day long.......might be worth a try? 

[Noallegiance]

Can they hold on until next week?

Although my reflation portfolio keeps going up apace so I'm not totally complaining!