Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[spygirl]

3 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

That may very well be what he meant, it is not what was said. But yes everyone misunderstood.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2001/may/23/labour.tonyblair

 

2001.

Mrs spy has several single mums, well under 30, whod have spent their entire 11/13 years in education after that speech.

Most can barely read n write.

None gave held down a FT job.

[spygirl]

Education systems are best judged by how bad the lower achievers, bottom 30%  are.

The uks are dire.

[23rdian]

5 hours ago, Tingles said:

 

Yawn.  Just.  Fucking.  YAWN.

We are speculating because we have been forced to. 

They have made working and saving a mugs game. This is pretty much the only option left unless you want to enjoy serfdom or want to help price other people out of homes.

What does it matter what you choose in invest in (within reason)?

 

[Harley]

Anecdote.  Just read a copy of the latest local free magazine (well posh booklet).  Loads of new businessess (new entrants and actually new types of business) which look like people going it alone.  Must be a fair number of locals with good skills who were let go or decided the time is right to reconfigure things.  Was very nice to see.  I hope it continues and flourishes. 

[leonardratso]

and that pool of investables is shrinking with buyouts. Still what would i be doing with the money? i wouldnt spend it cos i dont need anything extra or extravagant, ive had plenty of shit that i bought and then never used/lost interest in, i dont do that anymore, get rid of it, even give it away if its gonna be used elsewhere at least.

 

[ONC]

 

Just a quick  comment on the Company Shop, @DurhamBorn

I do not know their pricing policy, but 3 out of 4 shopping trips now  we have got ALL our fruit/veg for FREE.  Some was nearly out of date and reduced to £1 or 50p, some was not near date at all (apples/ oranges/ watermelon/strawberries/ mango).  However, When we checked the receipt, ALL the fruit/veg were reduced to ZERO.

Note, we normally go shopping 7.30pm, just before closing (8pm) on Thursday ( This did not happen when we once went Sunday 9.30am).

might be worth checking out

[DurhamBorn]

18 minutes ago, ONC said:

 

Just a quick  comment on the Company Shop, @DurhamBorn

I do not know their pricing policy, but 3 out of 4 shopping trips now  we have got ALL our fruit/veg for FREE.  Some was nearly out of date and reduced to £1 or 50p, some was not near date at all (apples/ oranges/ watermelon/strawberries/ mango).  However, When we checked the receipt, ALL the fruit/veg were reduced to ZERO.

Note, we normally go shopping 7.30pm, just before closing (8pm) on Thursday ( This did not happen when we once went Sunday 9.30am).

might be worth checking out

 cant get any cheaper.Ours is 9 miles away so i only go when passing,but you get some fantastic bargains.Last time it was sirloin steaks £1 each.One week they had really good quality cheese 50p a block.Iv chopped it into 2 pizza amount blocks and froze it all.Extra large Sainsburys chickens £1.25 etc.I tend to go at 5pm as thats when they put the 50% off marked price on a lot of stuff so really cheap then cut in half.Il try it at 7pm sometime,though i tend to use it for meat etc and get my ved and salad in Aldi and Lidl as they are both less than half a mile away.

[Bricormortis]

The Beeb sent a reporter to cover the panic buying at petrol stations. His name ?  

[Talking Monkey]

13 hours ago, JMD said:

Yes (but as the thread is so full of late of gloomy posts I shall continue the trend) is the government actually scared of the left or of the media? After all the last 18 months could be seen as an interesting/successful dry run experiment on discovering the strength of opposition out there. To be clear, on balance I personally think that covid was a (useful but fortuatous) panic-demic rather than a plan-demic.                                                                                                                                                                                               As for the problem of quickly changing hearts and minds, or rapidly converting work-shy bennie's into worker bees, etc, I think that for any command economy to succeed it would need a 'war-time' theme. So maybe fully exploit our current 3-Cs - that would be war on Covid (any variant will do), war against Climate change, and a (proxy) war with China!     ...Alternatively (but mainly just so I can contrive yet more C's) Covid could be cured, the Climate crises could be contained by carbon capture, and China conveniently caves(in).                                                                                                                         ...Of course all this talk could/should be seen as idle pointless conjecture, but my base-case remains (btw, i didn't think any of this 2 years ago) - that the above types of existential emergencies, and the resulting omni-shambles, will provide ample cover and excuse for all kinds of nefarious government activities. However, regardless of how good/bad the policies - and/or - how strong/weak our leaders are, there probably will be no escaping our 2030ish date with destiny!?

That last sentence sums it up, the world has a date with destiny around 2030ish. Though I think quality leaders and good policies might go some way to mitigate some of the misery. 

[JMD]

Is anyone buying Rolls Royce, now gone up to approx £1.33 and looking like it will only rise from here, especially with government - now about to embrace? - small modular nuclear. I bought some last year when it was much cheaper but those prices will surely not return now that nuclear appears to be firmly on more and more governments agenda.

[BurntBread]

2 minutes ago, JMD said:

Is anyone buying Rolls Royce, now gone up to approx £1.33 and looking like it will only rise from here, especially with government - now about to embrace? - small modular nuclear. I bought some last year when it was much cheaper but those prices will surely not return now that nuclear appears to be firmly on more and more governments agenda.

It's a loss-making company with negative net assets. I know the government has a golden share, and you could certainly argue that nuclear is favoured by the macro, but I feel I would be ignoring balance sheet due diligence to even think about it. That's not to say it won't do well, but I'm avoiding.

[Noallegiance]

2 hours ago, invalid said:

 

 

It took me far too long to come that realisation, almost a couple of decades.

I'm placing seeds of information that will hopefully help my kids make that realisation far quicker than I did.

There was a time when conscientiousness/pride/work ethic was beneficial for a worker, but not so much these days. Will it return going forward?

 

 

This kind of talk highlights, for me, how long it's been going on.

I, too, am reaching the end of my tether with multiple things. But I'm reminded of watching my wife go through labour three times. The time women want to give up on it is very close to the end.

I'm striving to keep and pass on my own work and attitude ethic but I'll also be encouraging all my kids to invest in things that pay them to hold them.

If I'd been told that 20 years ago, things would be very different now.

I'm grateful to be still at only 41 and understand that. Plenty of time, still.

[JMD]

Dan Oliver podcast and video, very good macro and historical conversation on bubbles. Tends to jump around history a lot and so conversation is bit disjointed, however most here probably familiar with the topics discussed so still easy to follow. But he presents a clear narrative perspective - that we've made the same mistakes time and again throughout history - illustrating so clearly to me that things (again) definitely WONT end differently this time!                                                            https://supplysidepartners.com/dan-oliver-myrmikan-capital/

[DurhamBorn]

WRONG ,we predicted it on here.However our type dont get jobs with them.Leaving school at 16 from a terrible state comp etc.Can someone tell him its going to get even worse from 23 onwards,this is just the first wave.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58697347

Ofgem boss Jonathan Brearley, told the BBC: "No-one could have predicted the kind of gas price rises we have seen.

[Noallegiance]

23 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

WRONG ,we predicted it on here.However our type dont get jobs with them.Leaving school at 16 from a terrible state comp etc.Can someone tell him its going to get even worse from 23 onwards,this is just the first wave.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58697347

Ofgem boss Jonathan Brearley, told the BBC: "No-one could have predicted the kind of gas price rises we have seen.

He doesn't mean it, of course.

What he means is "I didn't see this coming so I'm going to cover myself and say nobody could"

Or

"I knew this was coming but I wanted to keep it quiet so I could position for it then act surprised"

Unqualified or imorral are the only two possibilities with such people these days, I reckon.

[JMD]

3 hours ago, invalid said:

 

 

It took me far too long to come that realisation, almost a couple of decades.

I'm placing seeds of information that will hopefully help my kids make that realisation far quicker than I did.

There was a time when conscientiousness/pride/work ethic was beneficial for a worker, but not so much these days. Will it return going forward?

 

 

Interesting but can you give an example of those seeds of wisdom you are passing down to your children?

[spygirl]

4 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Doubling in 4 years is nuts. 

Again, check the price data.

https://houseprices.io/?q=Yo13

[Innkeeper]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

WRONG ,we predicted it on here.However our type dont get jobs with them.Leaving school at 16 from a terrible state comp etc.Can someone tell him its going to get even worse from 23 onwards,this is just the first wave.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58697347

Ofgem boss Jonathan Brearley, told the BBC: "No-one could have predicted the kind of gas price rises we have seen.

Oh dear, not only could he have consulted Dosbodders, the City was all too aware as well.....

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-city-power-players-making-money-from-the-energy-crisis-z8nbls096

Headline:  The surge in gas prices may have taken consumers by surprise but City moneymen who called it right are reaping the benefits.

[DurhamBorn]

12 minutes ago, PrincessDrac said:

An interesting post regarding BP on another forum.

The volume of shares being bought back on a daily basis has fallen below the steady $30M per day run rate, since the share price broke through 310p. Having talked through a general strategy I expect the mandate to the brokers already gives them discretion, indeed it probably obliges the board not to interfere in the day-to-day execution. The broker is now either struggling to find volume sellers who were only too happy to offload at 300p and 310p last week, and/or the share price has been rising faster than the broker's set daily target. Probably the latter, we know there are funds and trackers seeking to offload for green reasons. If the share price does drop again for whatever reason I suspect the broker will have a few extra busy days. If not the price it executes buying will have to keep rising because it still has the mandate to spend the remaining cash within the alloted time, and that will be a tailwind pushing the share price up even further. Yes, the buyback itself could actually drive the sp, which I am sure is not the intention and is why they are throttling back the daily volumes. Sorry in some ways, we will look back on these early buybacks as being terrific value, if and when the share price rises to its consensus value 350-360p. The fewer shares taken out of circulation the slower the dividend will progress, and as long term investors we are here for the income not the growth aren't we?

£8 share by 2029 minimum including divs.They have green funds selling,but likely they wont get many shares bought back before they rise.I think they will buy back until £4.10-£4.50 then special divs instead.Wont make people rich,but a very nice income ,and massive firepower for hydrogen etc.

[ThoughtCriminal]

27 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Again, check the price data.

https://houseprices.io/?q=Yo13

The first link you shared is wrong then? 

[spygirl]

19 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

The first link you shared is wrong then? 

The first link is for sales searches by Whitby.

It shows selling prices going up but transaction going down.

For whatever insane reason, every brassy trollope in Yorkshire thinks a FHL in whitby us a route to wealth. It's not. It'll be less when the FHL changes come in.

The second link shows sales in yo13, which, roughly, covers the area starting around the flask/pond hill, thru to the northern (nice) end of scarb.

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Have i lost my marbles or has the options thread disappeared from the basement? 

[Starsend]

4 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

That last sentence sums it up, the world has a date with destiny around 2030ish. Though I think quality leaders and good policies might go some way to mitigate some of the misery. 

We're fucked then.

Fucking fucked.

Up the bum.

[Hancock]

12 hours ago, Tingles said:

Yawn.  Just.  Fucking.  YAWN.

[ThoughtCriminal]

42 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Without sounding like a cock, we are similar to one of the groups of oddballs that Michael Lewis found for The Big Short. If he doesn't find us after the next big disaster, I fantasise about quoting key thread paragraphs to various officials that I'm bog-washing, such as that head of Ofgem, Hancock, Greta or the head of NEST. "WE knew you bellend *flush* why the f**king hell didn't YOU *long flush*"

In that case i volunteer to be the one that goes and interviews strippers about how many houses they own. 

 

I'll need expenses money from the Dosbods kitty. 

 

About 5 grand should do.