Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Loki]

1 minute ago, JMD said:

I own some Exxon. Does the investment case for owning Exxon change because of this alarming boardroom woke behavior? Or are all the oilies doing/set to do very similar in future? 

I believe it is something @DurhamBorn saw coming.  If I hadn't seen his thoughts, I would no doubt be panic selling. 

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/9fee812f-6975-49ce-915c-aeb25d3dd748
 

By the way everyone, you have until the 23rd of June to opt out of having your data shared commercially (and beyond). After that date it’s irreversible. I’ve given my form to my GP surgery and opted out on my NHS profile online.

They are sneaking this shit in through the back door.

For those that can’t get behind the paywall:

England’s NHS plans to share patient records with third parties

55m patients have until June 23 to opt out of having their health data scraped into a new database

England’s NHS is preparing to scrape the medical histories of 55m patients, including sensitive information on mental and sexual health, criminal records and abuse, into a database it will share with third parties.

The data collection project, which is the first of its kind, has caused an uproar among privacy campaigners, who say it is “legally problematic”, especially as patients only have a few weeks to opt out of the plan. 

NHS Digital, which runs the health service’s IT systems, confirmed the plan to pool together medical records from every patient in England who is registered with a GP clinic into a single lake that will be available to academic and commercial third parties for research and planning purposes.

Cori Crider, co-founder of Foxglove, a campaign group for digital rights, said: “We all want to see the NHS come out of the pandemic stronger” but noted that the NHS had been “completely silent” on who would have access to the data. 

“Is it pharma companies? The health arm of Google Deepmind? If you ask patients whether they want details of their fertility treatment or abortion, or results of their colonoscopy shared with [those companies], they’re not going to want that,” she said. 

Foxglove has issued a legal letter to the Department of Health and Social Care, questioning the lawfulness of the plans under current data protection laws, and threatening further legal action. 

Rosa Curling, a solicitor at Foxglove, wrote in the letter that she had “serious concerns” about the legality of the move because no explicit consent had been given and “very few members of the public will be aware that the new processing is imminent, directly affecting their personal medical data”.

Patients have until June 23 to opt out by filling in a form and taking it to their GP before their historical records will become a permanent and irreversible part of the new data set. Patients who opt out after the deadline can stop future data from being funnelled into the new system. 

The plan to create a new data set was announced by Matt Hancock, health secretary, in early April and publicised mainly on blogs on the NHS Digital website, and through flyers at GP surgeries, said NHS Digital, which added that the plans had been in the works for three years. 

But Phil Booth, founder of advocacy group MedConfidential, said: “They’re trying to sneak it out, they are giving you six weeks nominally and if you do not act based on web pages on the NHS digital site and some YouTube videos and a few tweets, your entire GP history could have been scraped, never to be deleted.” 

He added that the NHS had “opaque” commercial relationships, often through middlemen, and that it would be difficult to trace who ultimately sees the data. NHS Digital says on its website that it publishes a monthly register of who it has released data to, and whether the data is anonymised or not. 

Data that directly identifies patients will be replaced with unique codes in the new data set, but the NHS will hold the keys to unlock the codes “in certain circumstances, and where there is a valid legal reason”, according to its website. 

NHS Digital said the Information Commissioner’s Office, the UK’s data regulator, had not objected to its plans, and that it was in the process of delivering a data protection impact assessment. 

The plan comes following an attempt in 2013 to extract GP records into a central database, called the Care.data programme, which was abandoned in 2016 after complaints about confidentiality and commercial use.

'Interesting' (!?) that last night's Panaorama didn't mention a word about this, despite the program being specifically about big-data worries, Google, China, etc.

It did however use an example of how big-data medical tech. will help treat patients, more efficient diagnosis, etc... Hmm, lies of omission are still lies!! 

 

[JMD]

34 minutes ago, planit said:

So they can still sell the same amount of oil as long as they expand renewables to 80% of their fossil output energy wise.

They can also convert some oil to Nat gas to help marginally but just increasing Nat gas will just cause more clean energy to be needed.

They can also buy or acquire carbon sync tech.

 

Or they could  buy a nuclear company  

 

Looks to me like they should sit tight until 2027 and then just buy up all the green companies that have had trillions poured in for pink unicorn promises. This is now a waiting game, the oil company management need to make loads of loud noises that they are doing the right thing whilst being patient.

In the medium term they will make so much cash on the higher prices that they will have gigantic war chests to do what they want.

Conclusion: Shell have just been forced by law to become the biggest Energy company by 2030

Or the activists could get their own way, Exxon and BP get shut down and Russia/MiddleEast control everything. If I was China I would be pushing this with all my tentacles. (Just realised GS and China have a lot in common, no wonder they have just made a deal)

 

Great analysis Planit. Hope you are correct.

But can i ask - what is carbon sync tech? (is it 'carbon capture'), and who are 'GS'? 

 

@DurhamBorn in terms of Planit's summary, is this part of what you have been saying for long while, i.e. that the energy companies will eventually buy up the 'green/environmental' sector companies?

 

[Loki]

9 minutes ago, JMD said:

who are 'GS'

Goldman Sachs

[nirvana]

2 minutes ago, Loki said:

Goldman Sachs

vampire squid too.....blimey it gets a bit heavy in here eCONomics wise and bashing the greens...

think I'm off to get stoned again, have a massive wank and chew on a piece of grass, cheers 

[DurhamBorn]

47 minutes ago, JMD said:

I own some Exxon. Does the investment case for owning Exxon change because of this alarming boardroom woke behavior? Or are all the oilies doing/set to do very similar in future? 

Energy is starting its biggest bull market in history just as its the most hated of hated sectors.It makes the fag companies look like angels.The yield curve says the market is starting to kick back liquidity now,so the Fed isnt far off a tightening cycle.The beginning of those usually favour cyclicals and energy,but with the leverage in the system it increases the risks of a BK.

Violent pullbacks along the way but this is structural undervaluation.

[planit]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Great analysis Planit. Hope you are correct.

But can i ask - what is carbon sync tech? (is it 'carbon capture'), and who are 'GS'? 

 

@DurhamBorn in terms of Planit's summary, is this part of what you have been saying for long while, i.e. that the energy companies will eventually buy up the 'green/environmental' sector companies?

 

Sorry, you are correct to question, I meant carbon-sink which as you say is carbon capture.

GS as someone else pointed out are Goldman Sachs. The Chinese tentacles are the ones that made that actor apologise in Mandarin for 'incorrectly' calling Taiwan a country. 

 

I don't want to bash the greens, I don't even want any of this to show them in a bad light. This is all against the woke culture, crowd mentality of destroy at all costs (Marxism, identify the oppressor and pull them down).

 

[wherebee]

2 hours ago, stoobs said:

Are there any downsides to opting out?

Say if you're referred to a consultant by your GP, will the consultant no longer have your medical history if you've opted out?

How about if you're away in a different part of the UK on holiday and need medical attention, will the local A&E or whatever still be able to access your records if opted-out?

I got all my medical records from my UK GP batched up and sent to GPs in three other countries over the years.  No problems at all.

[Green Devil]

[Harley]

4 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

Thoughts 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/shell-ordered-by-dutch-court-to-cut-carbon-emissions-11622038961?reflink=desktopwebshare_twitter

Does it apply to the UK Transport and Trading company, a separate (UK registered) company?

[Harley]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

I own some Exxon. Does the investment case for owning Exxon change because of this alarming boardroom woke behavior? Or are all the oilies doing/set to do very similar in future? 

Large institutional shareholders are apparently key as the shareholding the company has is minuscule to get any board posts.  Someone on a RealVision podcast asking if these institutional shareholders are acting in the best interests of their shareholders/clients.  Go woke, go broke, but not with my money.

[Bobthebuilder]

20 minutes ago, Harley said:

Does it apply to the UK Transport and Trading company, a separate (UK registered) company?

Sorry to link auntie beeb.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-57257982

"Though the decision only applies in the Netherlands, it could have wider effects elsewhere."

[Barnsey]

Brace yourselves, policy "mistake" as per Mr Hunter's expectations on the way?

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Energy is starting its biggest bull market in history just as its the most hated of hated sectors.It makes the fag companies look like angels.The yield curve says the market is starting to kick back liquidity now,so the Fed isnt far off a tightening cycle.The beginning of those usually favour cyclicals and energy,but with the leverage in the system it increases the risks of a BK.

Violent pullbacks along the way but this is structural undervaluation.

Any of our more adventurous members considered going long on the actual price of oil? 

[Don Coglione]

10 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Any of our more adventurous members considered going long on the actual price of oil? 

I went long oil in April 2020, using the CRUD ETC. Sold off a chunk a few months ago, to help with a house purchase, but happy to be holding the remainder.

The last time that WTI was above $65, CRUD was trading above USD10; currently it is below $6. Now I am a complete numpty, but that suggests to me that oil is not fancied at present.

[Hancock]

38 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Brace yourselves, policy "mistake" as per Mr Hunter's expectations on the way?

 

Ive looked at the price for my Derv Astra after reading similar claims in the UK and its still continued its downward price trajectory.

Ive read one article where it was claiming Mini Coopers were going up in price, but they are a relatively scarce vehicle.

[Option5]

1 hour ago, planit said:

Sorry, you are correct to question, I meant carbon-sink which as you say is carbon capture.

As an example of how real the "green" credentials of oil companies work out just take a look at the costing of the Norwegian Carbon Capture and Storage project "Longship" (was called Northern Lights)

Total cost for implementation and  10 years running $2.7 billion.

Norwegian Government contribution $1.8 billion.

 

[nirvana]

49 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Any of our more adventurous members considered going long on the actual price of oil? 

yes I do that but everyone ignores my charts  CFDs

not doing much at the mo cos I'm concentrating on crypto, that most on here are ignoring too 

actually nice spike on crude just now probs worth a short, it's that 66 area again 

edit : I think someone mentioned this a while ago, play the underlining rather than the oilies

Do both! Oilies in a SIPP, CFDs for weekly income...

 @sancho panzais a smart cookie and I think he was playing with options and stuff?

[VeryMeanReversion]

2 hours ago, Fully Detached said:

Very nice - our NC is the 1.8 but still drives beautifully. The NB is the 1.8 16v, and um, is likely to get turbo'd...  

I've still got my NA that I bought new in 1994.   

Had a rotary engine conversion put in it many years ago for 240bhp and 9500rpm. I've not used it for years as the kids and dog lifestyle meant an SUV was needed.
 

[ThoughtCriminal]

47 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

I went long oil in April 2020, using the CRUD ETC. Sold off a chunk a few months ago, to help with a house purchase, but happy to be holding the remainder.

The last time that WTI was above $65, CRUD was trading above USD10; currently it is below $6. Now I am a complete numpty, but that suggests to me that oil is not fancied at present.

Interesting. 

 

I've been looking for something to use as a long term hold, just set it up and forget about it so I'm not listening to the "noise" as it's obviously going to fluctuate on the way up. 

 

I just can't see how it doesn't explode eventually, mostly thanks to the writings of DB and CP amongst others. 

[janch]

If it does what it did in 2008 it could be a winner:

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

Ive looked at the price for my Derv Astra after reading similar claims in the UK and its still continued its downward price trajectory.

Ive read one article where it was claiming Mini Coopers were going up in price, but they are a relatively scarce vehicle.

Mate is getting offered the same to px his used 140i as he paid for it last year, first I've ever heard that happen. Model dependent I guess according to chip shortages etc. Waiting list for a new A4 Avant about 6 months now.

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

37 minutes ago, nirvana said:

yes I do that but everyone ignores my charts  CFDs

not doing much at the mo cos I'm concentrating on crypto, that most on here are ignoring too 

actually nice spike on crude just now probs worth a short, it's that 66 area again 

edit : I think someone mentioned this a while ago, play the underlining rather than the oilies

Do both! Oilies in a SIPP, CFDs for weekly income...

 @sancho panzais a smart cookie and I think he was playing with options and stuff?

I've done a bit of reading on the options front but I really need to get into it more. 

 

I'm like you, I like the long term stuff but I also need a little short term action. 

[nirvana]

7 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

They hit 25c last March time. 4 bagger for the brave.

Bob I've had a quick think about this and yes I'm a bit ummm arr at the mo so take it with a pinch of salt BUT I'm really starting to think ignore all these 'low value stocks' I know some pros have been saying that for years and yes you can make some good dosh BUT it's all about liquidity man!!!

The liquidity is in crypto now!!! why bother with all this crap like Great Wanker, Horizonte, etc anything under a tenner, maybe Telefonica is a good example of something 'low price' that's decent lol but the rest hmmmmmm, i'm thinking #ignore probs just trying to convince myself lol

anyways, good luck!

[nirvana]

44 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Mate is getting offered the same to px his used 140i as he paid for it last year,

nice motor but is that against like a M135i 'xDrive' with a RRP of £40k lol?

edit hilarious if you write 'xD' without quotes it converts to smiley