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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)


spunko

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AlfredTheLittle
9 minutes ago, Boon said:

This amazes me too from multiple aspects. 

Why the hell do people get junk food delivered in the first place? 

Secondly why the hell do people order off Uber Eats? The prices are about 30% more expensive than the shop, as the takeaway needs to cover the fees (Mcdonalds is an exception)

How do Uber Eats actually make money? A driver is paid £3.50 per delivery minimum. McDonalds seem to be a small loss leader for them, just a way to give their drivers regular work. 

On the rest they are basically hoping that people are idiots and pony up for the big takeaways, ie a £35 takeaway might earn Uber £10 in fees, which only £3.5 is paid to the driver. But this might be quite rare. 

Just seems to me to be one of those things which is never gonna be profitable. 

I did a brief stint as an Uber eats driver, I don't know how the pricing works for the customer, but well over 90% of the work when I did it, about 3 years ago, was McDonald's, so if that's a loss leader they have no chance of making money (and in fact they have never made a profit - it's just another symptom of the fact that we're using up as many of the earth's resources as we can as quickly as we can, while talking bollox about climate change)

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I use Uber Eats occasionally, because they spam me with voucher codes for anywhere between 35 and 50% off.

The sharing platter from my local Turkish place on Green Lanes is good value when I pick it up and pay full price, never mind when it's half price and delivered to the door.

Uber just consumes capital. They're all about growth, not profit. It's a business model that can only work in a ZIRP environment. They're fucked. Every time they try to put their prices up to turn a profit, everyone stops using them.

They've conditioned their customers to think that their service isn't worth very much.

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12 minutes ago, AWW said:

I use Uber Eats occasionally, because they spam me with voucher codes for anywhere between 35 and 50% off.

The sharing platter from my local Turkish place on Green Lanes is good value when I pick it up and pay full price, never mind when it's half price and delivered to the door.

Uber just consumes capital. They're all about growth, not profit. It's a business model that can only work in a ZIRP environment. They're fucked. Every time they try to put their prices up to turn a profit, everyone stops using them.

They've conditioned their customers to think that their service isn't worth very much.

Uber is useful for use when you cannot drive but need a fast pickup.  For example, son went swimming with mates down in the sea the other week, too far for me to go due to work, I ordered them all an Uber back, 40 bucks for 5 kids home safely.  That's worth it.

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59 minutes ago, Boon said:

This amazes me too from multiple aspects. 

Why the hell do people get junk food delivered in the first place? 

Secondly why the hell do people order off Uber Eats? The prices are about 30% more expensive than the shop, as the takeaway needs to cover the fees (Mcdonalds is an exception)

How do Uber Eats actually make money? A driver is paid £3.50 per delivery minimum. McDonalds seem to be a small loss leader for them, just a way to give their drivers regular work. 

On the rest they are basically hoping that people are idiots and pony up for the big takeaways, ie a £35 takeaway might earn Uber £10 in fees, which only £3.5 is paid to the driver. But this might be quite rare. 

Just seems to me to be one of those things which is never gonna be profitable. 

Yes its a mystery to me, its bad enough fresh, let alone eaten 25 minutes later and after its been thrown round a bag.

But then the whole of civilisation has become a fucken mystery to me. Irony is the people ordering that shite are probably deemed more "normal" than us lot who are bemused by it all!

I feel sorry for Mcdonalds workers though, its non stop work for £9 an hour; they have to be one of the few groups of people who genuinely put in a hard days graft these days.

 

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42 minutes ago, PrincessDrac said:

Thanks. I like a punt with a bit of risk.

But thank you for your opinion.

If you want risk, pick a silver miner with an animal or bird in its name....

There is a whole zoo including silver bull and silver bear 🐻

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1 minute ago, ashestoashes said:

What they do in the middle east is, Indian office gets her mate to run an agency, pays her $150 for each worker, then the agency pays them $50 a day.

They hire anyone who can buy forged documents, and then treat them like absolute shit. 

I like the low level Indians they make me laugh and are pretty harmless, explained to one that if it wasn't for that Ghandi cunt they'd get treat a whole lot better than they do by us Brits.

Its probably what happens the world over, just slightly more obvious to us whiteys, maybe the main difference being middle class whitey wouldn't order working class whitey about in the same way, as they're scared of them and would be afraid of getting a hiding.

image.png.633d40a794240e06ff0abdb7a8990723.png

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4 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

You can actually get the microscopes cheaper than that, obviously adding import charges.


https://a.aliexpress.com/_mr2I0Fo

All that and a decent Fluke multimeter and your well away and can pinpoint most issues and fix. 

I prefer to use solder paste and flux syringes and decent solder wick (MG chemicals super wick) when working on the small stuff.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/RELIFE-RL-405-Lead-free-Temperature-Soldering/dp/B08YRZPBZJ/ref=mp_s_a_1_12?keywords=solder+paste&qid=1638472125&sr=8-12

 

I went the small old laptop for the screen use and just the microscope end thing.

Judging by your posts you probably know these already but I'll throw them out there.

OWON VDS1022 - virtual oscilloscope, used one, thought thats not a bad idea for my laptop (as above), bought one and like my 3d printer has only been out of the box to set up. Ive an old 32 inch lcd tv that I replaced some of the caps on the power board but still not right yet that I need to get this on over the winter.

Bought a wee assembled digital dso150 oscilloscope as well as a small xr2206 signal generator kit. Again if I ever get the chance I'll put these together and up and running for portable use. The wee scope isnt bad for some simple waveform stuff, havent used it for anything complicated yet.

Bought a few cheap uno kits from banggood/aliexpress pre brexit and have them to play with as well at some stage.

What has this to do with the thread? Well I see the ability to fix stuff being crucial going forward and yes I did buy a hobby sewing machine as well, although wasnt up to fixing the tarp for my trailer, bought a leather stiching kit for that instead!

Saddo, I know.

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2 hours ago, PrincessDrac said:

Link

Anyone own Fortuna Silver Mines Inc? Just bought in my first ladder, missed the bottom of ~ $3.15 as I was out. But i got in at the close at $3.26.

I bought 400 shares. Every 15 to 20 cents drop I think i'l buy another 400 odd shares.

Any thoughts, am I catching a falling knife here? A nice silver play for the long term I hope.

 

I'm a confirmed 'spray n prayer' when it comes to individual stocks in something like the PM miners. So not an expert on this sector by any stretch but I'd steer clear from what I've read about this individual stock(It has some serious issues that look like they won't get resolved in it's favour).It looks like a falling knife.DYOR obviously,I could be wrong.

@kibuc has probably the best working knowledge on here ref junior miners, maybe @Majorpain or @DurhamBorn have an opinion.

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55 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Wtf? It really is end of days. It's often cold when I get it over the counter, who tf gets it delivered? 

That said I can recall about 4,000 hangovers when I'd have paid big money for a sausage and egg mcmuffin to the door. I guess I'm a hypocrite...

Aye, but i doubt your modern day fat cunt has any room left over for alcohol ... why waste precious real estate in your belly on booze when more food can go there.

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28 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I'm a confirmed 'spray n prayer' when it comes to individual stocks in something like the PM miners. So not an expert on this sector by any stretch but I'd steer clear from what I've read about this individual stock(It has some serious issues that look like they won't get resolved in it's favour).It looks like a falling knife.DYOR obviously,I could be wrong.

@kibuc has probably the best working knowledge on here ref junior miners, maybe @Majorpain or @DurhamBorn have an opinion.

GJGB has held up remarkably well, gold and silver were at a lower price, at the start of October, but GJGB is higher than the low of $24.04

Maybe if it goes back to $24 i'll be tempted, but something inside tells me we're getting very near to a BK event.

image.png.418e90d30f4611d7acd0bafa9d038b42.png

 

Same applies with SILJ ... 

image.png.ee3be1cc5442be22991d3301257beb2d.png

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8 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

That said I can recall about 4,000 hangovers when I'd have paid big money for a sausage and egg mcmuffin to the door. I guess I'm a hypocrite...

Guilty as charged :ph34r:

£2 delivery free to avoid the horrendous permanent queue at our local McD's a bargain IMO, especially with fuel at £1.50L.

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HousePriceMania
11 hours ago, Boon said:

Why the hell do people get junk food delivered in the first place? 

 

I was wondering that myself.

I go for a Chinese take away now and again.  I drive about mile to get it, under current circumstances it's nice to get out.  I have a nice chat to the lovely Chinese lady behind the counter and I drive home and have my food while it's hot.

It's a real pain in the backside to park, always has been.

I've noticed in the last 6 months though it's now practically impossible to park, there are cars double parked everywhere and you see people coming out of the various takeaways into their cars with those bags to keep the food warm, so they are clearly delivery drivers.

Same if you go to somewhere like MacDonalds, there are queues of these delivery drivers, car park is full of their 10 year old Vauxhalls.

Makes you want to not go.

You'd think it would be less bust if loads of people are getting deliveries so maybe the take aways are doing more business.

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sleepwello'nights
18 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Anyone here from Oxford?

 

Is this a fucking joke?

Why?

£200k for shell, £50k to refurb, less if you do most of the work yourself. Should sell for what £300 - £350. What would you earn as an employee for  6 months work.

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ThoughtCriminal
9 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Why?

£200k for shell, £50k to refurb, less if you do most of the work yourself. Should sell for what £300 - £350. What would you earn as an employee for  6 months work.

50k to refurb that? No chance.

 

And you're making my point for me. 300-350 to live in a shithole.

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On 30/11/2021 at 15:10, DurhamBorn said:

I think inflation might stay high rather than speed up.I do think we might get a fall back though first to fake everyone.I think roughly 6.7% then 3.8% then back up over 5% sustaining.65%ish for cycle compounded.Interest rate increases with QE are key.

Gammon finds a resolution to the differing Alden/Snider views on inflation.

Inflation: Understand history so you can predict the future

I did wonder what the balance would be between Dosbodders self-identifying as "Average Joes" or "Seasoned Pros". I'm surprised that "Average Joes" are seen as worrying about their allocation to bonds, cash and Gold/Bitcoin.

Lyn.png

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sleepwello'nights
9 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

50k to refurb that? No chance.

 

And you're making my point for me. 300-350 to live in a shithole.

Pay cash and tour the builders merchants for ex-display and end of line stuff. 

I reckon its do-able. Depends on whether the roof needs much work.

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