Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[leonardratso]

29 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

HL wont allow any GAZ dealing at the moment, does anyone have platform access to buy Gaz Or Poly?

yeah like we said earlier, GAZ is non tradable. Lloyds/halifax told me they cant get prices from XESTRA for it, more likely XESTRA can get a feed from russia (with love).

[reformed nice guy]

30 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

HL wont allow any GAZ dealing at the moment, does anyone have platform access to buy Gaz Or Poly?

Interactive Brokers.... I got a small purchase at 1.75

[Sugarlips]

@nirvana

[AWW]

8 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

cut the gas and see how putin likes it. All it takes is everyone in europe to only take one shower a week and eat cold food.

Why make personal sacrifices to help Ukranians repel a dictator, when you can simply put a flag on your Facebook profile and turn the heating up?

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

Specifically small company?

No,i want more exposure across the board but not sure yet how to structure it.That trust is a nice opening.

[geordie_lurch]

11 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

Interactive Brokers.... I got a small purchase at 1.75

I imagine Interactive Brokers and other trading houses are looking a lot like this at the moment trying to offload any Russian shares

 

[AWW]

4 minutes ago, Cawn said:

I very rarely mix with general population

Due to my relatively poor (in monetary terms) childhood and my relatively rewarding (again, monetary terms) line of work, I mix with a whole range of people of different backgrounds, income levels and attitudes. One of the things it has taught me is that most people harbour an extreme opinion or two that they're quite happy to share, of course the subject matter changes with the people. I think most people are quite capable of taking an extreme position on an issue while believing it's just what everyone else thinks. At work, it was Covid. People very supportive of lockdowns even though they are the policy of lunatics. At home, it's "bankers". Everyone who works in finance should be strung up.

The one thing that seems to cross all socioeconomic boundaries is cyclists. Everyone fucking hates us!

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

What's happening with ABDN ?

 

Market Summary > Abrdn PLC

197.08 GBX-27.60 (-12.28%)past 5 days

1 Mar, 11:21 GMT • Disclaimer

LON: ABDN

Nothing,the sector is out of favour and the sector doesnt like the huge uncertainty.Results were fine,last quarter saw an uptick in AUM,iv got two more ladders set in them,be quite happy if they hit.

One thing i will say though,they are handing back around £250 mill to shareholders,but didnt really mention how,i quess buybacks.CEOs really get my goat when they dont do these at the best time.They should be using the money now if they are going to not leave it up in the air.

 

[Axeman123]

42 minutes ago, kibuc said:

I'd expect this week to be much more ruthless than the first one, with Putin needing something to show for his invasion before they go back to the negotiating table...

Today we have "negotiations fail" and "war could last years" headlines, and likely are therefore nearing the low in sentiment. With a 40 mile long column of armour reportedly approaching Kiev I imagine we could see either a ceasefire on Russian terms or the government decanted to Lviv within a week. As you say a brutal week ahead for the ordinary Joe on the ground. I would expect a substantial bounce in Russian stocks once the "ceasefire agreed" headlines are published, and I wouldn't rule out partial reversal of sanctions as a response.

Still undecided on whether to get (5%) exposure, or sit this one out. The rational mind says we either have WW3 or resolution within a week, the current situation and rhetoric cannot continue much longer.

[HousePriceMania]

Just now, DurhamBorn said:

Nothing,the sector is out of favour and the sector doesnt like the huge uncertainty.Results were fine,last quarter saw an uptick in AUM,iv got two more ladders set in them,be quite happy if they hit.

One thing i will say though,they are handing back around £250 mill to shareholders,but didnt really mention how,i quess buybacks.CEOs really get my goat when they dont do these at the best time.They should be using the money now if they are going to not leave it up in the air.

 

I have bought 2 ladders of this now.  That will do me.  The dividend and share price look good, the business sound ( hopefully ).  Now in it for the long term and retirement dividends, have stopped worrying about share prices for now.

1 minute ago, Axeman123 said:

Today we have "negotiations fail" and "war could last years" headlines, and likely are therefore nearing the low in sentiment. With a 40 mile long column of armour reportedly approaching Kiev I imagine we could see either a ceasefire on Russian terms or the government decanted to Lviv within a week. As you say a brutal week ahead for the ordinary Joe on the ground. I would expect a substantial bounce in Russian stocks once the "ceasefire agreed" headlines are published, and I wouldn't rule out partial reversal of sanctions as a response.

Still undecided on whether to get (5%) exposure, or sit this one out. The rational mind says we either have WW3 or resolution within a week, the current situation and rhetoric cannot continue much longer.

I was surprised it started at all.  Will keep going till the next FED meeting then a ceasefire will be called 

[nirvana]

fukkin A that guy on his bike! See it's all part of 'divide and conquer' yet again......we don't think we own the fukkin road u cretins we just want a bit of space to keep fit n healthy FFS

I am feeling it though and some cunts cars are gonna get damaged in the very near future if they're not careful

Right I'm off to murder a pansy before I murder the markets 

[Castlevania]

36 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Isn't it amazing? It's as if a switch was flicked and it's left everyone's mind instantly.

It is. I just can’t get my head around how Covid has so quickly disappeared. 

[JMD]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I think some on here are being a bit hard on themselves for "bad" buys with poly etc. In this inflationary environment doing nothing and sitting in cash isn't really an option, so you have to do something and that means that sometimes you're going to get things wrong. Maybe very wrong.

Take solace in knowing that 95% of the country are utter fucking imbeciles with Ukraine flags on their profiles because the media told them to. A week ago they couldn't have found Kiev on a map, and they certainly didn't give a flying fucking about Ukrainians slaughtering women and children with Grad rockets in the Donbas for the past 7 years.

Ok I know a war is rampaging in Ukraine but Is it only me annoyed by how capital cities effectively change name? Kiev (Russian pronunciation), has now suddenly become Keeeeeeev (Ukrainian pronunciation)....          It's politically driven of course, but I wonder if this means we all could go back to saying Peking? (Btw much of the world didn't adopt this change, in particular Europe mostly didn't. But the English speaking nations did, however change of pronunciations were not reciprocated by China, funny that!)

[BurntBread]

29 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

This is why I've gone a bit tinfoil. It is so obvious that the 'little people' are just pawns for the power brokers. They will sacrifice you or I without blinking. It appears nothing is off the table as far as they are concerned.

I was saying to someone at work that it felt like a return to the 19th century, with a great game between many powers, and treaties being honoured or dishonoured. It's no longer two great blocs leaning against each other, with MAD keeping the peace.

If @Cattle Prod and that Luke Groman chap are right, we may even get back onto the gold standard, with Russia forcing the issue. That would be a real eye-opener for the historians!

What the nineteenth century didn't have (or not to nearly the same degree) was the trans-national network of elites waging a second war against ordinary people, with the battle-lines running orthogonal to national borders, and the combatants remaining cryptic.

If we can raise the poverty-line a fair old way compared to back then, I quite like the idea of the nineteenth century.

 

[reformed nice guy]

18 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

I imagine Interactive Brokers and other trading houses are looking a lot like this at the moment trying to offload any Russian shares

 

I realise that there is a good chance that Im going to be another bag holder for the big boys but my last gazprom purchase during the covid panic of 2020 was 4.58, I had set a $3.50 ladder and just went for it but with a much smaller amount (10% of my normal ladder amount)

[Loki]

Oil back over $100 ($101.03)

[reformed nice guy]

That VIX stock seems to be doing really good - does it have a good dividend?

[HousePriceMania]

We're helping the Ukraine....

 

[JimmyTheBruce]

For those who have been looking to get a (long-term, inflation-protecting, sensible, definitely not gambling) entry into Heidelbergcement, its at the lowest its been for a year.

[Loki]

HARL up 10% today...get it while it's cheap...

 

[Castlevania]

6 minutes ago, Loki said:

HARL up 10% today...get it while it's cheap...

 

Is that the stock formerly known as Infrastrata?

[Don Coglione]

6 minutes ago, Loki said:

HARL up 10% today...get it while it's cheap...

 

More chance of getting my money back on Gazprom and Polymetal!

[Loki]

Just now, Castlevania said:

Is that the stock formerly known as Infrastrata?

Maybe 

[23rdian]

12 minutes ago, Loki said:

HARL up 10% today...get it while it's cheap...

 

Can I just say I enjoy these type of posts. I might not buy but they were simply not on my radar regardless. I enjoy people posting ideas. Cheers to you all.

EDIT: also the HeidelbergCement but I don't know how to do multiquotes.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Pardon my ignorance, but who typically acts as the intermediary on an ADR? If I buy a Gazprom ADR on the LSE, who is my counterparty for matching that purchase on the MCX and are *they* now at risk? Seems whoever that is now has a whole pile of liabilities on the LSE in the form of ADRs, while the "real" instruments on the MSE are now inaccessible to the intermediary (since CBR barred foreign entities). 

Or is an ADR now effectively a bet that the situation will unwind somehow?

You mean you didn't do your DD and check?

Actually it's very hard to find out (funny that)!  I tried way back and found some info which I posted here back in the day (but no-one was interested!).  It's held in a trust type setup.  I can't even remember the names but it's with the clearing company.  I believe the trust owns the security and you have an interest.  So there will probably be a trust type document somewhere detailing the precise construct.