Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

It's about progress in energy density for me, DB. I'd have no issue if they destroyed oil and gas with nuclear or something better really, thing is they are destroying it with no replacement this time.

That said, coal shouldn't have been shut down entirely like it was and I get what you're saying. Like how I burn logs for heat when I have a gas boiler available at the flick of switch. Coal should be as available as a cheap and plentiful backup to gas when the wholesale prices are high etc.

Exactly,we should of kept a smaller industry.We had a company here called Underground Mining Machinery who had cracked carbon capture back in the 80s,they begged for some funding ,but the government let them go down.It was well known around here the government wanted them dead as they gave a reason to keep coal.We should have nuclear,then gas,then some coal,and wind / solar.What happens if Russia blow the Norway pipeline?.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

What happens if Russia blow the Norway pipeline?.

Edited March 27, 2023 by Harley

[Starsend]

2 hours ago, Pip321 said:

Have been thinking about this because I also have some miners. I think I am going to stick with gold mining 'funds' or 'EFTs' for the larger part....because I believe overall they will do well, however as individual businesses they all have some risk of running out of cash before they get the stuff out of the ground. 

Will stick with Fres but its only a relatively small amount....but the rest is Blackrock Gold (because its the only option in my SIPP) and GJGB in the ISA. 

However been thinking more and more about a physical Gold Fund. There are a few out there....and I am not hugely worried about cost (well, depending on how much it is of course) but more reassurance that my money is being backed by something other than just fiat. I see these type of physical funds as a hedge for a sizeable amount of money not really as a mad max scenario....I would have reassessed and probably own baked beans before we got there. 

• Aberdeen Standard Physical Gold Shares ETF [SGOL] ...
• VanEck Merk Gold Trust [OUNZ] ...
• SPDR Gold Shares [GLD] ...

Any thoughts re physical funds?

Better than nothing but still risky in my view. Large amount of gold in one place; highly tempting for Governments to seize if / when it all goes tits up.

Then again, hold it yourself and they could just make it illegal so no easy answers other than diversification.

If I was going to put money into a physical etf it would be the Sprott one. I trust them more than others.

[nirvana]

[Starsend]

2 minutes ago, nirvana said:

You been at the sherry again?

[nirvana]

3 minutes ago, Starsend said:

You been at the sherry again?

horrible stuff bruv, may the alcohol drinkers rot in errr, wherever

PS just thought it was funny......although may the Lord have mercy on our souls

Edited March 27, 2023 by nirvana

[Inigo]

19 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Agree, sitting around waiting for some politician to save us, is a complete waste of our time. We need to find ways to protect ourselves, my best guess would be, oil, baccy, comms, EMs, PMs and I still like the idea of asset managers.

I liked what @sancho panza said the other day when he said tobacco is a currency, I have been sitting here today looking at all the stuff I have collected during my life time, real items that themselves have some value, whether that be £, $, digital currency or beans, at least I can touch it.

I chartered a yacht out of Gouvia marina on Corfu a long time ago.  The owner told a story about how he had been boarded by the Albanian navy and only managed to buy them off with 200 Marlboro and a baseball cap.  He said he always kept 200 Marlboro on board, just in case.

[nirvana]

@Bobthebuilder hey bob, pair of pointy ones on BATS this am.......how you like em, pointing down

[Plan-b]

5 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

Thungela to pay £1.42 per share dividend after South African withholding tax.

Might go someway towards it's share price performance.. 

[JMD]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

Other physical backed ones to perhaps consider, not sure of current charges - sgld, sgln, gbs, phgp

I recently looked at buying phpp, I was tempted because it's slightly different but haven't bought any (yet). It is physical - mostly gold but with small fund allocations to silver and platinum. It adjusts the allocations to achieve higher long term return, at least that's the theory! Has 0.44% charge. So reasonable cost if the trading strategy works, maybe even more than covers the fund charges?

 

2 hours ago, JMD said:

Other physical backed ones to perhaps consider, not sure of current charges - sgld, sgln, gbs, phgp

I recently looked at buying phpp, I was tempted because it's slightly different but haven't bought any (yet). It is physical - mostly gold but with small fund allocations to silver and platinum. It adjusts the allocations to achieve higher long term return, at least that's the theory! Has 0.44% charge. So reasonable cost if the trading strategy works, maybe even more than covers the fund charges?

Sorry made a mistake with above list - sgln is not physical.

Meant to put sgbx which is physical.

[Bobthebuilder]

17 minutes ago, nirvana said:

@Bobthebuilder hey bob, pair of pointy ones on BATS this am.......how you like em, pointing down

I have been noticing the trade volume spikes on the daily lows/ highs, very interesting stuff Nirv.

[HousePriceMania]

 

[Pip321]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

What happens if Russia blow the Norway pipeline?.

The Russians will have to be quick if they want to blow it up before the US decide we need ‘their’ energy. 😉😆

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Inigo said:

I chartered a yacht out of Gouvia marina on Corfu a long time ago.  The owner told a story about how he had been boarded by the Albanian navy and only managed to buy them off with 200 Marlboro and a baseball cap.  He said he always kept 200 Marlboro on board, just in case.

Jonny Walker Red Label has worked for decades.  Dosboder tip: No need for the Black Label.

Edited March 27, 2023 by Harley

[Ma2]

4 hours ago, Pip321 said:

Any thoughts re physical funds?

I have a couple of funds and they've done well tracking gold and silver but you really don't know how they will perform if everyone tries to get out at once.

Note that you can also hold physical gold in a SIPP. Only certain providers allow this but worth considering opening an additional SIPP if you wanted to diversify your types of gold holdings further

 

Edit to say I've been looking at this as I have physical in bullionvault and some SIPP providers allow you to hold this - https://www.bullionvault.com/info/gold-sipp-pension-plan

Edited March 27, 2023 by Ma2

[Harley]

40 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

The Russians will have to be quick if they want to blow it up before the US decide we need ‘their’ energy. 😉😆

TBC, the Norwegian pipeline is perfectly safe from the Russians as the Russians only blow up their own pipelines, and not very well either.

Edited March 27, 2023 by Harley

[Harley]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

 

Sorry made a mistake with above list - sgln is not physical.

Meant to put sgbx which is physical.

I believe they all say they are physical (well, "physically backed"!) although true 100% physical is a bit hard for an ETF that trades throughout the day.  Any other differences requires a deep dive into their prospectuses.  Sprott is a trust rather than an ETF which can be bought in HL but, as is its way, not II!  Being a trust may confer advantages, although I believe it is vaulted at the Canadian Mint.  I'd look at volumes for all instruments to ensure liquidity and be aware of the various currency options for each fund if you want to avoid FX charges or want to use some FX balances in a multi currency account.  Some are also FX hedged.  Justetf lists most/all.

Edited March 27, 2023 by Harley

[JMD]

28 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

(Yuri) Bezmenov index?

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I have been noticing the trade volume spikes on the daily lows/ highs, very interesting stuff Nirv.

they sold the tits at 29......fight fight fight lol

[JMD]

30 minutes ago, Harley said:

I believe they all say they are physical (well, "physically backed"!) although true 100% physical is a bit hard for an ETF that trades throughout the day.  Any other differences requires a deep dive into their prospectuses.  Sprott is a trust rather than an ETF which can be bought in HL but not II!  Being a trust may confer advantages, although I believe it is vaulted at the Canadian Mint.  I'd look at volumes for all instruments to ensure liquidity and be aware of the various currency options for each fund if you want to avoid FX charges or want to use some FX balances in a multi currency account.  Some are also FX hedged.  Justetf lists most/all.

All very valid points.

I meant to add it seems only phgp and GBS have an assigned custodian - HSBC. Also their charges (0.4%) are nearly three times the other etfs I listed which probably indicates they are more likely to be holding the physical on a 1 to 1 backing? But that's an assumption and as Harley suggests need to check the prospectus.

Edited March 27, 2023 by JMD

[Long time lurking]

For the CBDC ,you will own nothing brigade 

China man bad ,it`s now official,that`s what all the coordinated propaganda has been all about  

 

[Axeman123]

An interesting take on the real outcome of the recent bank turmoil.

This has me coming around to the DDMB view that the deflationary effects on lending will outweigh any inflationary ones from the bailouts.

[Long time lurking]

10 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

the deflationary effects on lending will outweigh any inflationary ones from the bailouts.

Stagflation like we have never seen before ,the USA will see the worse in the long run 

[Herd]

18 hours ago, Plan-b said:

Nearly yes, not the house though in the UK they are denominated in pounds, they're falling in value in 2 ways, by value and by currency and they cost in upkeep..

Pms are denominated in dollars, a really handy fact.

It really doesn`t matter what denomination tangible assets are valued in , if the value given is in the ether/on a screen....dictated by your local estate agent , or showing you on the screen of a laptop  . The value is not tangible . It is not real .

You cannot put the value of these assets into a three dimensional reality , or touch it .

Now a house in any country you can. You are able to touch it feel it and get value from it . (value by living in it or maybe renting it out.....that is real tangible value)

Do we all really trust the systems in play so much .? I do not . Personally I only place value in three dimensional objects . !

 

[Plan-b]

19 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

For the CBDC ,you will own nothing brigade 

China man bad ,it`s now official,that`s what all the coordinated propaganda has been all about  

 

Interesting that she said 'America's enemies' Twice