Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[geordie_lurch]

Wow - 2 TRILLION as in $2,000,000,000,000

 

Edited March 16, 2023 by geordie_lurch

[No One]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im down from all time high across all portfolios 4.3% and about half down through these falls compared to the market,that im pleased with.I trimmed some holdings a few weeks ago and im now increasing some others.Areas i want more of have come down some as well.I can now slowly add more,and divis flowing in  buy me more future income.The best advice when the markets are like this is go and do something else.The market thinks we are heading for deflation and selling off,but it will be very very short lived,the structural drivers are and remain reflation.Market will shake out weak hands like it always does,then will go off to the races.

Anything you are considering buying?

2 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Wow - 2 TRILLION as in $2,000,000,000,000

 

[sancho panza]

6 hours ago, Alifelessbinary said:

While I agree that the Swiss are no longer the gold standard of Tax Havens. What are the alternatives?

Physical gold.

I say that as someone who didn't used to be a goldbug until 2018.Lesson learned.

I also think the Western alliance will crumble under sustained pressure from declining dipsoable incomes.

The West has really shot itself in the foot with it's geopolitical moves over the last year.

 

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Roadmap flagged it,collapse without some QE,hyperinflation without increased rates,so both needed.Seemed ludicrous,but the numbers were right.Its pretty much the fact that government cant or wont cut spending so they need to take it all from past savings,ie gilts etc.Those have seen 35% lost with inflation i think,my model showed around that level needed.The liquidity now would stop those institutions going under.They have lost the money inflation adjusted still,just they can keep going.The next stage of the cycle will likely see the onshoring speed up.The end result a multi polar world as we suspected.Whatever the markets say now,i want more and more of things that can at least get close to inflation in price increases.I see that as crucial.Growth stocks etc still look hugely exposed to continue down.Governments will allow big funds etc to invest in real assets next.They want bonds to lose value due to inflation while they backstop the institutions.

Spot on preditcion DB.

ref that second bit,over last few days,I've sold up rolls royce,Wood group,Petrofac and newcrest and been buying EM's eg HBRL(thank you @honkydonkey), more SEDY(£11BRLA and BAT's.

Jsutnoticed the oilies are 15% down.BP at 475...Harbour 240.....petrobas$9.81

Was hoping for a down few days to get the newcrest moeny back in that market,so fingers crossed.

Edited March 16, 2023 by sancho panza

[Long time lurking]

This could get interesting

 

 

[sancho panza]

6 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Thanks for that. I wasn't suggesting you bought the dip, just wondered about another of my cash ISA's. However like I've said before those people at the FSCS are great and I've always liked them.

AS long as you stay under the allowance itll be fine imho dyor natch.I don't foresee a situtaion where sterling holders at a UK institution get bailed in.I jsut don't.

I wouldn't want to have a mrotgage or credit card with them.And I defintiely wouldn't want to be a shareholder.

Always amazes me how they hide the relvant business specific stuff after 50 pages of ESG/diversity bollocks.

[Long time lurking]

9 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Wow - 2 TRILLION as in $2,000,000,000,000

 

It`s a sticking plaster and a small one at best 

[DurhamBorn]

8 minutes ago, No One said:

Anything you are considering buying?

Telcos,Brazil,EMs,what iv been tilting towards the last few months.Nothing in the UK market apart from NinetyOne .CBs showing their hands now,liquidity pump,but rates higher for longer.Hugely bullish for EMs,just the lag as always.CBs will backstop western economies until the re-tool and onshore.The currencies might have to go down 50% yet to ensure that plays out.

[belfastchild]

15 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Thanks for that. I wasn't suggesting you bought the dip, just wondered about another of my cash ISA's. However like I've said before those people at the FSCS are great and I've always liked them.

Someone on here asked me a while ago why Id only gone for a one year fixed cash isa with them, there you have it.
Always do have my suspicions about these places offering 'market leading' rates.

 

As for the 2 trillion. Is that street value? They will be raising the debt ceiling weekly soon!

[Long time lurking]

 

[darkmarket]

27 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

 

Not altogether surprising but it'll be interesting to see if he can hold things together until the end of his mandate.

It looks like he prefers this approach to doing anything dramatic on welfare spending. He must know the problem with another round of QE is we're staring down the barrel of sovereign defaults in major economies. Propping up SocGen et al may not be feasible in the absence of this reform, but it may not be feasible with it either.

[Long time lurking]

 

[Long time lurking]

The mystery of the 40% rise ?

[Long time lurking]

 

[jamtomorrow]

50 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I understand why some would hold back from this marekt TC but I think there's a buying opportunity here imho but it's not for the faint hearted

I hear pinging sounds coming from the rungs of my EM ladders, so I think it's feeding time

[Axeman123]

34 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Whilst some would say this isn't the Bear Stearns moment,I think it is.I think there's more to come from UK/EU/US banks(particularly UK/EU) and I think people are going to be shcoked at how little capital is underpinning the whole fractional reserve system.

I personally also think Credit Suise is the Bear Stearns(BS) moment of this cycle, but the whole point IMO is that BS failed first and was bailed out, whereas Lehman Brothers(LB) failed second and at that point it was decided to make an example of them to prevent moral hazard. BS failed in March 2008, and intially this was seen by many as a problem solved, whereas LB didn't fail until the September of that year. The BS moment therefore won't be widely recognised as such until several months later when the LB moment occurrs. Eyes on September for that LB moment and the trap door opening IMO.

The counterpoint to all that is the S&P actually peaking in late 2007, well before BS or LB, although I would argue that this time around the fed injecting up to 2 billion in liquidity is going to shift that peak much later in the economic cycle. All of this actually fits with the Dave Hunter melt-up idea, at least to me as a layman.

[darkmarket]

Quote

Les chefs de LR,dont Retailleau, étaient très inquiets ce matin car tout indiquait que la réforme des retraites serait rejetée. Macron affolé sort donc le 49-3,ce qui va entraîner une motion de censure. Si celle-ci est votée, Borne tombe.

So if the motion de censure passes, the Prime Minister could be brought down after only ten months in office. As it's Macron himself who opted for the use of 49.3, his position doesn't look so secure either.

All closely related to the room they'll have for any bailouts and QE. More calls for greater fiscal union in the Eurozone today too, I suspect that reflects an awareness that the model is disintegrating.

[Pip321]

Miners down, gold levelling and banks on a rally. So we were wrong….they were right, nothing to see here and Western Financial systems and economies are strong and will prevail.

I love the Bloomberg type narratives from economists who live in the moment (literally hour by hour) and fall from euphoria to despair in half a day.

Fres back on the radar for another cheeky slice (would hold much more if they had a decent divi). Some others too ie N91 looks nice and whilst it’s far from a ‘tip’ MNG seems to have been battered. Treading cautiously though. 

However think some EMs and PMs funds (already mentioned in this thread) are now back on the list.👍🏻 

Edited March 16, 2023 by Pip321

[Democorruptcy]

31 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Miners down, gold levelling and banks on a rally. So we were wrong….they were right, nothing to see here and Western Financial systems and economies are strong and will prevail.

I love the Bloomberg type narratives from economists who live in the moment (literally hour by hour) and fall from euphoria to despair in half a day.

Fres back on the radar for another cheeky slice (would hold much more if they had a decent divi). Some others too ie N91 looks nice and whilst it’s far from a ‘tip’ MNG seems to have been battered. Treading cautiously though. 

However think some EMs and PMs funds (already mentioned in this thread) are now back on the list.👍🏻 

MNG Ex Dividend today

[Long time lurking]

 

[DurhamBorn]

33 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Miners down, gold levelling and banks on a rally. So we were wrong….they were right, nothing to see here and Western Financial systems and economies are strong and will prevail.

I love the Bloomberg type narratives from economists who live in the moment (literally hour by hour) and fall from euphoria to despair in half a day.

Fres back on the radar for another cheeky slice (would hold much more if they had a decent divi). Some others too ie N91 looks nice and whilst it’s far from a ‘tip’ MNG seems to have been battered. Treading cautiously though. 

However think some EMs and PMs funds (already mentioned in this thread) are now back on the list.👍🏻 

I bought some N91,i had sold some just over £2,but got them back,also bought some more TEF Brazil,SK Telecom,Latin America etc even though they arent down much.CBs sent the signal more inflation and higher rates for longer.It hasnt worked through yet,but massive transfer to EMs from bubble growth stocks will be the cycle.Bonds will likely flatline,but 2% to 3%pa loss to inflation i suspect.I suspect silver is very close to taking off as well.Printing with tight rates is new territory.I suspect it will cement an equity,over a debt cycle.

[Democorruptcy]

Bye bye BATS?

Quote

 

British American Tobacco urged to quit London for US

Top-five shareholder GQG says it ‘makes no sense’ for cigarette group to be listed in UK

British American Tobacco is an ‘orphan in Europe’, says Rajiv Jain, founder of US-based investment firm GQG Partners

British American Tobacco is facing pressure to move its primary listing to New York after a top-five shareholder said it “makes no sense” for the cigarette maker to remain on the UK stock market.

Rajiv Jain, founder of $92bn US-based investment firm GQG Partners, told the Financial Times he had urged the management of the FTSE 100-listed owner of Lucky Strike and Dunhill to call time on a London listing that dates back to 1912.

https://www.ft.com/content/92dc7615-39f2-4421-9b13-389d19cda67c

 

 

[Long time lurking]

 

[nirvana]

59 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

banks on a rally

where?

 

[Stuey]

2 minutes ago, nirvana said:

where?

 

Everywhere brosif 

Predicted here by absolutely everyone noone.

But roll up roll up, great tips to be found here lolz.

I'd rather bet on Cas v Leeds Rhinos ce soir 

Edited March 16, 2023 by Stuey

[nirvana]

13 minutes ago, Stuey said:

Everywhere brosif