Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[GoneDark]

12 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

The middle east is going to get very interesting ,it`s be clear for months this was coming 

Asia also entered the game in the last few days via Malaysia 

Yeah I'm going to be taking a bit more interest than I normally would as to what's 'going on' as from what I can gather, we're 'exposed'.

[Long time lurking]

2 minutes ago, GoneDark said:

Yeah I'm going to be taking a bit more interest than I normally would as to what's 'going on' as from what I can gather, we're 'exposed'.

There`s only one question left and that`s Turkey and Syria ,it`s hit a stumbling block today ,but i think it`s a tactical stumbling block from within ,if it`s overcome peace has well and truly broken out as Yemen looks like a done deal

That will be the end game for the wests control mechanisms in that part of the world 

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

With regards to BAT the proposal by an activist investor is simply to move their primary listing to the NYSE. That has zero impact on dividend withholding taxes.

I thought it meant their contact details would change to the US. Like say FXPO, listed here but 35% DWT because their's is  Switzerland. I see what you mean though, that contact detail is where they are registered for tax purposes not main listing? That decides their DWT, which could be somewhere that they aren't even listed? No worries about BAT then as long as their contact details stay as UK?

[Pip321]

About time. Stitch that WEF wankers and appreciate it’s only a small step in a small country but it’s about time ‘established political parties’ were given a kick in the balls.

As Gary Linekar might say….these new emerging extreme populist parties all feel a bit like 1930’s Germany.

The West continues to wobble. 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, GoneDark said:

Cut out shitty carbs would be my advice, and booze, but DB doesn't sound like a big boozer.  The pizza oven might needed to be ebayed. 

I think mine is shitty carbs and lack of exercise,im going to try to cut lots of carbs out the next few weeks.Funny enough i noticed days when i eat no bread but have wholewheat oats and yoghurt it seems to be lower.

[Stuey]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

You really are a twat sometimes.

Being right against basement sheep has its value. 

I stealth here and do the opposite of what is suggested. Makes me money.

The most prolific posters like @DurhamBorn do not know the difference between effect and affect, nor that would of could of should of make any sense. 

You simple fuckers think these charlatans who can't spell have any insights 

you are better going to the casino and choosing black or red based on the sequences because math. 

[GoneDark]

11 minutes ago, Stuey said:

Being right against basement sheep has its value. 

I stealth here and do the opposite of what is suggested. Makes me money.

The most prolific posters like @DurhamBorn do not know the difference between effect and affect, nor that would of could of should of make any sense. 

You simple fuckers think these charlatans who can't spell have any insights 

you are better going to the casino and choosing black or red based on the sequences because math. 

Narc off.

[Democorruptcy]

15 minutes ago, Stuey said:

Being right against basement sheep has its value. 

I stealth here and do the opposite of what is suggested. Makes me money.

The most prolific posters like @DurhamBorn do not know the difference between effect and affect, nor that would of could of should of make any sense. 

You simple fuckers think these charlatans who can't spell have any insights 

you are better going to the casino and choosing black or red based on the sequences because math. 

Look mate I made a mess of the poll about when you would next be banned and have ended up with July to end 2023 as my vote. Can you crawl back under a stone for 3 months? Cheers.

[Stuey]

3 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Look mate I made a mess of the poll about when you would next be banned and have ended up with July to end 2023 as my vote. Can you crawl back under a stone for 3 months? Cheers.

Just calling it as it is. 

This basement is brilliant for information and then to take the contrary view.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

14 hours ago, sancho panza said:

ref that second bit,over last few days,I've sold up rolls royce,Wood group,Petrofac and newcrest and been buying EM's

S P - been watching PFC all time low now, interested in your thoughts (no need to say if ya don't want to) cos you must of sold at a loss? it certainly looks like it could go bust!

the directors bought in around 70p at last results/announcement...

I'm thinking of buying now, this will send @MrXxxx  &  @HousePriceMania scurrying for the exits, making the stock even CHEAPER!...at which point i will load up

 

Looking at the above couple of posts...

I expect the IGNORE button will be getting a hammering today!

 

Edited March 17, 2023 by Yellow_Reduced_Sticker

[Castlevania]

6 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I thought it meant their contact details would change to the US. Like say FXPO, listed here but 35% DWT because their's is  Switzerland. I see what you mean though, that contact detail is where they are registered for tax purposes not main listing? That decides their DWT, which could be somewhere that they aren't even listed? No worries about BAT then as long as their contact details stay as UK?

It’s where you’re registered as a company. There are some anti tax avoidance rules too such as needing to hold board meetings etc in said location. Listing is simply where your shares are traded.

[Loki]

5 hours ago, Stuey said:

I stealth here and do the opposite of what is suggested. Makes me money

So what did you do? Be specific 

[Stuey]

37 minutes ago, Loki said:

So what did you do? Be specific 

Lose some win some 

[Jay]

6 hours ago, Stuey said:

Being right against basement sheep has its value. 

I stealth here and do the opposite of what is suggested. Makes me money.

The most prolific posters like @DurhamBorn do not know the difference between effect and affect, nor that would of could of should of make any sense. 

You simple fuckers think these charlatans who can't spell have any insights 

you are better going to the casino and choosing black or red based on the sequences because math. 

A bit harsh..there is a minority on here who consistently make money from their investments…some shares and others properties..I give you the fact or is it concede that I am a simple fu***er..

[Errol]

6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think mine is shitty carbs and lack of exercise,im going to try to cut lots of carbs out the next few weeks.Funny enough i noticed days when i eat no bread but have wholewheat oats and yoghurt it seems to be lower.

Just go for more long walks. You can think about investing etc while you walk.

[Jay]

21 minutes ago, Stuey said:

Lose some win some 

Be lucky…I ain’t got that ability to consistently make money on the sports…

[dnb24]

8 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

Apparently Saudi are the largest share holders of Credit Suisse

Three guesses where this is all going 

Iran /Saudi re establishing relations 

already happened - brokered last week
 

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/16/china-saudi-iran-deal-south-asia-pakistan-india-oscars-rrr/

[Majorpain]

28 minutes ago, Stuey said:

Lose some win some 

You won big once, amazing.

Difference between shares and betting is that if you win big repeatedly the share broker will not close the account!  Both are rigged but in different ways.

[Kevin Redshaw]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think mine is shitty carbs and lack of exercise,im going to try to cut lots of carbs out the next few weeks.Funny enough i noticed days when i eat no bread but have wholewheat oats and yoghurt it seems to be lower.

The other big factor will be processed food - most of it is shitty carbs.

To add, good luck. You can do it!

Edited March 17, 2023 by Kevin Redshaw

[ThoughtCriminal]

17 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I think there's been a general mood on here that there's a room in the CB's tank for a bail out right now and we've got that generally right.

Whilst some would say this isn't the Bear Stearns moment,I think it is.I think there's more to come from UK/EU/US banks(particularly UK/EU) and I think people are going to be shcoked at how little capital is underpinning the whole fractional reserve system.

One point I was thinking this morning is that Brent is at $73 but have we seen even the slightest nudge down in oil demand at 100mn bpd?  Methinks not.

I understand why some would hold back from this marekt TC but I think there's a buying opportunity here imho but it's not for the faint hearted

When the dust settles,I think the prices of what I'm after wil have gone up

As that great financial thinker Del Boy of Peckham put it: He who dares Rodders, he who dares lol

 

I initially asked my mate if there was enough blood on the streets yet, and he said it may not even have started flowing yet. But you're right, fortune favours the brave.

 

My trouble is that I'm a shit house 😂

[Noallegiance]

Can someone explain the 'discount window' please?

I've tried to comprehend it but it escapes me.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, Jay said:

A bit harsh..there is a minority on here who consistently make money from their investments…some shares and others properties..I give you the fact or is it concede that I am a simple fu***er..

Anyone who has followed this thread from the beginning has made money. Impossible not to if buying in March 2021. The only way to have failed is over-trading or focussing on just one or two areas and getting the timing wrong. If people have bought across the recommended categories they will be up a lot. I am and I'm not a genius.

[desertorchid]

8 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Can someone explain the 'discount window' please?

I've tried to comprehend it but it escapes me.

Isn't it just an unlimited funding source from CB's at discount rate (ie 4.75% w/FED)? It is money lent, but I would guess on absurdly flexible terms. Even some of the most toxic balance sheets should be able to function normally with this facility.

 

There is no way on gods green earth that they will allow any large financial institution to go to the wall. The discount window will just get wider and wider if necessary and some weaker banks wound down. If you look at the timeline of 2008-09, the DOW was only about 15% down from all time highs when Lehman collapsed. It was only then that all hell broke loose ie the "credit crunch". The will not be allowed to happen again.

Edited March 17, 2023 by desertorchid

[Yadda yadda yadda]

14 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

As that great financial thinker Del Boy of Peckham put it: He who dares Rodders, he who dares lol

 

I initially asked my mate if there was enough blood on the streets yet, and he said it may not even have started flowing yet. But you're right, fortune favours the brave.

 

My trouble is that I'm a shit house 😂

I think patience is required. Just look at a long term chart and decide if we have had a crash or a mere pull back. I'm an investor not a trader. I am keeping money back for a major crash but otherwise stay invested for the long term. I'm looking for an edge not a lottery win. In my opinion this is just a pull back or the start of a crash. It isn't the crash.

There could be a buying opportunity in some banks but I'm not interested in those long term.

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Can someone explain the 'discount window' please?

I've tried to comprehend it but it escapes me.

It was why the Fed was formed.Its simply the way they inject money into the system .Primary credit is mostly for deposit institutions,no restrictions on what to do with it.Then they have Secondary credit,thats more restricted and for overnight,more while they sort out liabilities.The discount window is the time the Fed allows them to have the liquidity.It is really to stop fire sales.