Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[dnb24]

Anecdotal- just spoken to an insolvency consultant who said that they are doing three times the amount of work than at any other time in her career- past 10years. Doesn’t think we’ll go into recession- didn’t push her on why she said that, but said it’s not slowing down- it’s getting busier by the day.

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, Castlevania said:

It’s where you’re registered as a company. There are some anti tax avoidance rules too such as needing to hold board meetings etc in said location. Listing is simply where your shares are traded.

I'm not sure what the point of the suggested move is, when US investors can already buy the ADR listed on the NYSE. Would it mean UK investors could only buy in USD?

[Underwhelmed]

2 hours ago, Stuey said:

Lose some win some 

what's this got to do with this thread? Let's see evidence of your contrarion investments & trades?

[Eventually Right]

Worth watching, if people haven’t seen it already.

[Noallegiance]

47 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

It was why the Fed was formed.Its simply the way they inject money into the system .Primary credit is mostly for deposit institutions,no restrictions on what to do with it.Then they have Secondary credit,thats more restricted and for overnight,more while they sort out liabilities.The discount window is the time the Fed allows them to have the liquidity.It is really to stop fire sales.

So it's a thoroughly mis-identifying term for a facility that exists to provide the illusion of liquidity? Hence, if a company is known to have used it that company is pretty much fucked without outside funding/takeover?

[Noallegiance]

12 minutes ago, Eventually Right said:

Worth watching, if people haven’t seen it already.

I always wondered what an absolute cunt looks like when dressed up like a doddery old grandma figure.

[DurhamBorn]

15 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

So it's a thoroughly mis-identifying term for a facility that exists to provide the illusion of liquidity? Hence, if a company is known to have used it that company is pretty much fucked without outside funding/takeover?

Even the big boys use it at times,its mainly or when banks wont lend to each other,so you get a bump up in liquidity,banks holding on to capital and the extra the Fed provides.

[Castlevania]

44 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I'm not sure what the point of the suggested move is, when US investors can already buy the ADR listed on the NYSE. Would it mean UK investors could only buy in USD?

The expectation is that they’d get added to the S&P500. Then all the 60:40 fund will have to buy it. Plus US listed companies tend to trade at a much higher PE ratio.

Edited March 17, 2023 by Castlevania

[sleepwello'nights]

 

On 16/03/2023 at 09:21, RWJ said:

Under FCA client money and custody asset rules (CASS), which applies to SIPPS, Firms are required to hold client assets separately to their own, so in the event of bankruptcy they can be returned and not used to pay creditors.  

It isn't as simple as that and there are different rules which apply depending on the structure.  Maybe email and ask them which CASS rules they comply with.

As you seem more informed about the FCA protection than me which ISA provider do you think is the safest in the UK?

I'm now starting to tink return of capital is becoming more important than return on capital and the start of the new fiscal year is a time when I need to take the appropriate action. 

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, Eventually Right said:

Worth watching, if people haven’t seen it already.

Disgusting. Picking winners and losers based on power. Doesn't sound very woke to me. If I had a lot of money in a small US bank I would be getting twitchy about moving it having seen that. In fact any amount of money as who wants to risk waiting in uncertainty.

Edited March 17, 2023 by Yadda yadda yadda

[Long time lurking]

3 hours ago, dnb24 said:

already happened - brokered last week
 

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/16/china-saudi-iran-deal-south-asia-pakistan-india-oscars-rrr/

Aye i know what i posted was the response to that deal ,it`s been obvious such a response,threat had been coming for months ,it`s now obviously something has be said to Saudi for them to make the statement regarding oil caps

[Noallegiance]

I would love to be a fly on the wall of J Powell's office for the next 5 days.

[Chewing Grass]

11 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

 

'Four Part Coalition', you haven't got a country or a real government if you have a four party stitch-up.

[Long time lurking]

1 hour ago, sleepwello'nights said:

 

As you seem more informed about the FCA protection than me which ISA provider do you think is the safest in the UK?

I'm now starting to tink return of capital is becoming more important than return on capital and the start of the new fiscal year is a time when I need to take the appropriate action. 

 

It has to be NS&I as there is no limit 

Edited March 17, 2023 by Long time lurking

[RWJ]

56 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

 

As you seem more informed about the FCA protection than me which ISA provider do you think is the safest in the UK?

I'm now starting to tink return of capital is becoming more important than return on capital and the start of the new fiscal year is a time when I need to take the appropriate action. 

 

I'm no expert but for general investments, including ISAs, I don't think it matters much as they are all bound by the same CASS rules.  Different story for SIPPS, as they can be structured in convoluted ways. 

Section 6 and 7 :-

https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/CASS.pdf

[Long time lurking]

7 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

'Four Part Coalition', you haven't got a country or a real government if you have a four party stitch-up.

Germany have been in a similar position for decades,as in ,multi party coalitions ,it`s said to be a common problem when you use a proportional representation system ,i think it`s because they still use a vote threshold % to determine an outright winner, instead of the simple most votes win even if it`s by 1

[Long time lurking]

.

Edited March 17, 2023 by Long time lurking

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

The expectation is that they’d get added to the S&P500. Then all the 60:40 fund will have to buy it. Plus US listed companies tend to trade at a much higher PE ratio.

I thought about another reason for having BATS main listing in the US. Given that they might get added to the S&P etc. that means a lot more investors are on their side, when it comes to lobbying the FDA about vaping and menthol products etc. It's the US that are causing more fuss about it than the UK.

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

The expectation is that they’d get added to the S&P500. Then all the 60:40 fund will have to buy it. Plus US listed companies tend to trade at a much higher PE ratio.

Interesting you should say that about PEs. I have just listened to this podcast with a Charteris investment manager and he comments, around the hour mark, about companies leaving the LSE.

He gives a number of  interesting insights into the markets, bonds, cycle theory, etc. So worth a  listen I think - much content is basic stuff for this thread - but this guy has a different perspective from most other investment managers we typically hear from, maybe because he began as a 'humble' floor trader.   

(I also like these podcasts because they are British, so offer I think a better perspective for us, rather than the normal usual US)

https://www.audacy.com/podcast/state-of-the-markets-0b807/episodes/172-ian-william-outperformance-in-trading-and-investing-charteriscouk-111ab

 

 

Edited March 17, 2023 by JMD

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, sleepwello'nights said:

 

As you seem more informed about the FCA protection than me which ISA provider do you think is the safest in the UK?

I'm now starting to tink return of capital is becoming more important than return on capital and the start of the new fiscal year is a time when I need to take the appropriate action. 

 

That was partly why I dispersed some shares ISA money to cash ISAs at Truss time. Thinking the rising rates could cause  wobbles in the banking sector. HL told me that £1.7m was safe per customer because it spread across banks, so presumably they use 20 (or did at that time). However you don't know where it is. I may have moved some to places that @sancho panzacharacter thinks are going bust any time but at least I know where it is to apply any FSCS limits that could be affected by other cash outside a shares ISA... IF the worst came to the worst. The problem about having a cash ISA at a bank or bs that goes bust, might retaining it's tax free status. If it ever happened do the FSCS give you the option of where to transfer it to another ISA, or just want your current account details?

In theory being invested in shares in an ISA or SIPP should be safer than holding cash, even though it's a nominee account.

Quote

 

If you've invested in using a platform or fund supermarket, the same applies. Platforms use nominee accounts to hold investor money, which means it can't be claimed by creditors if the company collapsed.

https://www.which.co.uk/money/savings-and-isas/savings-accounts/fscs-are-my-savings-safe-aW00D9u2dt8m

 

 

[SpectrumFX]

2 hours ago, Eventually Right said:

Worth watching, if people haven’t seen it already.

That's mental.

It comes across that until that question was asked she hadn't considered at all the consequences of fully underwriting shit risky banks. Which is of course that in the end everybody's money is in shit risky banks because you've put all the other banks out of business.

And she's trying to avoid systematic risk?

[Long time lurking]

The irony ,all things considered 

 

[kibuc]

12 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

That's mental.

It comes across that until that question was asked she hadn't considered at all the consequences of fully underwriting shit risky banks. Which is of course that in the end everybody's money is in shit risky banks because you've put all the other banks out of business.

And she's trying to avoid systematic risk?

Better to appear senile than flat-out criminal.

Joe knows it and so does Janet.

[sancho panza]

6 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

S P - been watching PFC all time low now, interested in your thoughts (no need to say if ya don't want to) cos you must of sold at a loss? it certainly looks like it could go bust!

the directors bought in around 70p at last results/announcement...

I'm thinking of buying now, this will send @MrXxxx  &  @HousePriceMania scurrying for the exits, making the stock even CHEAPER!...at which point i will load up

 

Looking at the above couple of posts...

I expect the IGNORE button will be getting a hammering today!

 

We had a 1% position in petrofac at about 105 to 110 and a 2% posistion in wood group circa 150 from a while back.The wood group profit at 214 balanced the loss in petrofac.

Wood grp and PFC were basically a leveraged play on oil and I'd rather have that moeny in Petrobas or harbour at these prices is the simple reason.

I reflected on the thesis that put us in and it was based on north sea region seeing more activity.wiht the recent round of licences going no bid or sh1t bid ,I decided to take us out and go where I'm pretty sure we'll get a good return.

We've already got a 4% position in harbour at £3 (paid for by BP/Shell trades from the 2020 bottom) and all the oilies got drummed down the last few days .As Ive said,I dont see oil demand going down much and this is a grade B/C buying opportunity in the oilies.

3 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Can someone explain the 'discount window' please?

I've tried to comprehend it but it escapes me.

good formal expalanation ehre which elaborates @DurhamBorn points

balances are small thouhg compared to open market ops.current balance on discsount window is circa $120bn

edit to add I think the term discount makes it sound like they get cheap money(which they do in a way) but the discount is actually on their parts as they are generally sturgginling to use that collateral elsewhere for in a normal repo

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/discountrate.htm

 

edit to add

Edited March 17, 2023 by sancho panza

[moneyscam]

2 hours ago, Underwhelmed said:

what's this got to do with this thread? Let's see evidence of your contrarion investments & trades?