Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

[DurhamBorn]

8 hours ago, desertorchid said:

I continue to raise the Chinese Telecoms companies on here as I think it is a gap in the industry overlooked by DB. Latest results by their 3rd largest carrier (328 milion customers):

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-news/section/2/255041/China-Unicom-ups-payout-as-net-hits-12.4b-yuan

* China Unicom (0762) said its interim profit rose 13.1 percent to 12.4 billion yuan (HK$13.5 billion) from a year ago, a double-digit growth for the seventh consecutive year.

*The telecom giant declared an interim dividend of 20.3 fen, up by 23 percent year on year.

 

Funny enough i noticed lots of MSM saying China fucked etc,so was starting to look to where to invest as they will be wrong.Most spare is inn HL though and they dont trade Hong Kong.

[ThoughtCriminal]

On 08/08/2023 at 22:41, AWW said:

Good quality isn't affordable either, or at least there's not a big enough market for more expensive, higher quality stuff for any company to provide it. I'm trying to find a pair of hiking shoes that will last more than a year without falling to bits. Doesn't seem to matter which brand - Salomon, North Face, Merrell, all making complete toss these days. My first pair of North Face hiking shoes and Salomon walking boots lasted 5 or 6 years, and I did more walking back then. The price is still the same but the quality is dreadful.

Don't get me started on this. 

 

I used to buy Merrell chameleon and they'd last forever. About 7 years ago I walked the Camino De Santiago over the Pyrenees and across Northern Spain and I had to ditch my brand new Chameleons after 4 days as they'd started falling apart. I've tried Salomon, North Face, Adidas, Nike, all absolute shite, don't last more than a couple of months. 

 

I now wear Altra. Not cheap but zero drop and wide toe box, much better for your feet and body overall.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, onlyme said:

Went to an event that covered supermarket promotions, quite of often apparently it is the supermarket that dictate the timing / type of offer with price they were willing to pay.  The suppliers wish to keep their favourable shelf positioning so are not in a position to really say no so pony up stock at heavily reduced margins but I suppose do get the additional exposure, for whatever that is worth in follow on sales.

Things certainly are changing, Aldi/Lidl seem to have middle isles either stuffed with more tat than useful stuff compared to pre-pandemic / inflation stocking or more selected food lines whch are not exactly cheap in many cases. A move to more branded product runs the risk of not really appealing to any particuar core group in some ways,  last visit to Aldi (admittedly after peak rush) the place was strewn with boxes, obviously understaffed and stock items (presumably the popular / in demand items) missing  all over the place - not sure this would appeal to the upper shopper segment whilst also not providing the product for sale to the lower / budget conscious shopping there in the first place.

Also quite noticeable is staff turnover. A few years ago you'd see the same core group running the local Aldi/Lidl  year in year out. Now it seems a complete set of new faces and they don;t stay there long either.

My son works for them,they are struggling to get staff in the distribution centres,he has had 3 pay increases in a year.They get staff in,but they leave if they cant demand what hours they work etc.I agree they should keep away from brands,no need to have them in,though it could be to fill shelf space.

[M S E Refugee]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Funny enough i noticed lots of MSM saying China fucked etc,so was starting to look to where to invest as they will be wrong.Most spare is inn HL though and they dont trade Hong Kong.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/i/ishares-asia-pacific-dividend-ucits-etf

I have some money in this, it has a decent amount of exposure to Hong Kong.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

The State pension is not a problem,,its the in work bennies and all the other bennies for retired with nothing else.There are millions who retire at 18 .They are trying to set up for where they cut,but only for those who have other pensions etc Im seeing lots of Africans around here now,within the last 6 months,big obese women dragging a few kids around who mostly look retarded.These are not coming in on boats,so where are they coming from?,all massive drains on the taxpayer.We are watching them destroy our country that took 1700 years to get where it did in a couple of decades.

Looks like the taxserfs are getting to see what it's been like for a demobbed grunt, social contract (not) and all.  I wonder if they still have that covid era ban on visiting airports and what they were hiding.

Edited August 10, 2023 by Harley

[Harley]

20 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Don't get me started on this. 

 

I used to buy Merrell chameleon and they'd last forever. About 7 years ago I walked the Camino De Santiago over the Pyrenees and across Northern Spain and I had to ditch my brand new Chameleons after 4 days as they'd started falling apart. I've tried Salomon, North Face, Adidas, Nike, all absolute shite, don't last more than a couple of months. 

 

I now wear Altra. Not cheap but zero drop and wide toe box, much better for your feet and body overall.

I don't think any of my boots lasted beyond two 11 to 14 days hikes along the GR20.  Eight times, about four pairs of boots.  The last time was a worry as they crapped out on the last day.  And this was a good few years ago.  Lightweight ones were fine, more suitable, and cheaper, especially when using a stick (which pretty much only the Brits didn't). 

[Harley]

40 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/i/ishares-asia-pacific-dividend-ucits-etf

I have some money in this, it has a decent amount of exposure to Hong Kong.

Yep, an example of one of the regional ETFs in our core portfolio.  IMO, far better for us to do things at this regional level than buy a world ETF, most of which are massively skewed towards the US.

Edited August 10, 2023 by Harley

[Harley]

Hope I educated someone correctly....They were going to stop work at £50,270 to stay below the 40% tax band (not worth it and good for their mental health).  I pointed out the effective 20% threshold is £110,270 if you use the full pension allowance (which presumably you could if you could stop at £50,270).   OK, it's still more tax and other factors are at play so let's settle on saying it's somewhere between £50,270 and £110,270.  Do I need to call them back?!   

[Harley]

50 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

....I now wear Altra. Not cheap but zero drop and wide toe box, much better for your feet and body overall.

New to me but I see what you mean.  Look nice and lightweight with (huge!) good soles.  Surprisingly pricey though and why do the ladies only get to wear the nicely coloured ones! 

Edited August 10, 2023 by Harley

[belfastchild]

3 hours ago, onlyme said:

 A move to more branded product runs the risk of not really appealing to any particuar core group in some ways, 

Its to appeal to the 'Id shop in aldi/lidl but the kids love heinz ketchup and I dont want to go to two shops' type thing. They then shop there and maybe swap to the own brand ketchup? Maybe the same with the nespresso pods - nespresso losing out as people move to aldi?
My next door neighbours havent went food shopping in about 8 years, tesco delivery all the time. They went mental down the phone during lockdown when they werent 'priority' customers, bad enough I could hear her shouting at the phone out in my garden!

Of course no offers or marked down stuff with online shopping so will be interesting to see if that moves away. Im rarely in Tesco but the last time a month or so ago there were more pickers than actual shoppers.

Over here no aldi and lidl dont do deliveries. Down south (ROI) I know aldi dont do deliveries but you can order online and pick up.

[Castlevania]

2 hours ago, crashmonitor said:

"Tine"and "Norm" again.. This time wondering how they fair in the assets league table for a household aged 65. Well we all wonder whether we are Premier League or Vauxhall Conference ( they talk median not mean). In Canada it is just over half million dollars in the US just over quarter of a million.

 

 

 

The difference between the US and Canada is due to the Canadian housing bubble. You’re looking at the same house costing three times as much on the Canadian side of Niagra Falls compared to the US side.

[ThoughtCriminal]

34 minutes ago, Harley said:

New to me but I see what you mean.  Look nice and lightweight with (huge!) good soles.  Surprisingly pricey though and why do the ladies only get to wear the nicely coloured ones! 

lol

Colour selection aside they really are superb. I own three pairs and I won't wear anything else now, they actually allow your feet to splay as they're supposed to rather than being forced into a point. 

 

I also own a pair of Vibram FiveFingers but they may be a bit radical for most Dosbods 😂

[Pip321]

48 minutes ago, Harley said:

Hope I educated someone correctly....They were going to stop work at £50,270 to stay below the 40% tax band (not worth it and good for their mental health).  I pointed out the effective 20% threshold is £110,270 if you use the full pension allowance (which presumably you could if you could stop at £50,270).   OK, it's still more tax and other factors are at play so let's settle on saying it's somewhere between £50,270 and £110,270.  Do I need to call them back?!   

Agree

I did all the calculations from about 35 years old onwards being careful to earn efficiency rather than just tell people (well, even just tell myself) I had a big salary but work like a dog to pay the government with all my time. I did it through the 'level of job' rather than the 'hours worked' but broadly that means the same thing in many cases. ie my boss with a wider remit would work harder, commute further and do more hours than I did etc. 

It also depends on their benefits...just examples but I was able to buy holidays each year and ended up with all bank holidays plus 30 days paid holiday and 5 days unpaid holidays a year. Those unpaid holidays were effectively a NI and tax saving ie salary sacrifice. The thing was part time impacts the DB pension but the holiday system did not.

We also had voucher schemes, shopping schemes, bike schemes etc and share schemes ie £150 each month into shares as salary sacrifice pus the company gave us £50 shares on top. I didnt do all the schemes but I did some and I max'd the share schemes. 

Only thing I would consider further is their age, that would change my viewpoint and possible the closer to retirement the closer to their upper earning capacity (ie £60k into pension) I would try to be. 

I think though your 'guidance' is probably the best steer and a great nudge to...to make them think.

The detail I have given strays too far and leads more into 'advice' and choices that they really can only make themselves. 

 

Edited August 10, 2023 by Pip321

[MrXxxx]

Be interested to hear others [especially our nuclear experts] thoughts/opinions on this one:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/companies/redundancies-made-as-loss-making-nuclear-services-firm-sold-for-just-3-enters-administration/ar-AA1f1ds4

[ThoughtCriminal]

12 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

The difference between the US and Canada is due to the Canadian housing bubble. You’re looking at the same house costing three times as much on the Canadian side of Niagra Falls compared to the US side.

Someone on twitter posted an absolute shit wreck of a house in Vancouver the other day, 1.3 million USD, was tiny and hadn't been touched in 40 years so needed everything doing.

I think Canada may rival the UK for most laughable house prices.

[Harley]

40 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Its to appeal to the 'Id shop in aldi/lidl but the kids love heinz ketchup and I dont want to go to two shops' type thing. They then shop there and maybe swap to the own brand ketchup? Maybe the same with the nespresso pods - nespresso losing out as people move to aldi?
My next door neighbours havent went food shopping in about 8 years, tesco delivery all the time. They went mental down the phone during lockdown when they werent 'priority' customers, bad enough I could hear her shouting at the phone out in my garden!

Of course no offers or marked down stuff with online shopping so will be interesting to see if that moves away. Im rarely in Tesco but the last time a month or so ago there were more pickers than actual shoppers.

Over here no aldi and lidl dont do deliveries. Down south (ROI) I know aldi dont do deliveries but you can order online and pick up.

Yep, saving some after cancelling the home delivery.  I do miss the buzz of getting a slot during lockdown though.  Good game, good game.  Maybe they should have been up at midnight, etc if that desperate.  Loved our chats with the drivers over the gate, telling us how Armageddon (not) was going!  Haven't forgotten them and the rest like most folk. 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

lol

Colour selection aside they really are superb. I own three pairs and I won't wear anything else now, they actually allow your feet to splay as they're supposed to rather than being forced into a point. 

 

I also own a pair of Vibram FiveFingers but they may be a bit radical for most Dosbods 😂

But if they're so good why three pairs!

Edited August 10, 2023 by Harley

[Axeman123]

10 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

Pensions to cost taxpayers more than defence, policing and education combined, figures show

Literally a pension scheme with a country attached. You could even argue two of those three categories (plus minting PM coins as currency) are the only legitimate branches of government, and everything else is over-reach (maybe even including education).

The fact this figure is doing the rounds implies that the ruling class see this state of affairs as unsustainable IMO. Could we be about to see means testing of the state pension after the next election?

8 hours ago, Virgil Caine said:

Looking at past Budgets and spending rounds I think the annual cost of the state pension has been more than Education, Defence and the Home Office for quite a long time.

Yet it is only now we are getting media messaging about it.

8 hours ago, Virgil Caine said:

What the article fails to mention is that the total cost of working age welfare spending is nearly as much as the cost of the state pension.

Indeed. Pensioners often have assets they can draw down to support themselves, whereas working age benefit claimants sometimes don't even own their furniture or domestic appliances outright! Pensioners often hoard wealth, whereas working age claimants tend to splurge it all back into the economy. You can foresee the govt calculations on where the axe must fall.

8 hours ago, Virgil Caine said:

The killer in the forecast is actually the debt interest to be paid which is estimated to be more than the whole education budget

Which means pensioner wealth will have to go down to pay it IMO, efectively a wealth transfer to prop things up a while longer.

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im seeing lots of Africans around here now,within the last 6 months,big obese women dragging a few kids around who mostly look retarded.These are not coming in on boats,so where are they coming from?

Probably care worker or dodgy student etc visas. The boat wankers are a decoy for population replacement IMO. None of us are keen on lone fighting age males, but the legal migrants can end up bringing half their village here!

[Eventually Right]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Don't get me started on this. 

 

I used to buy Merrell chameleon and they'd last forever. About 7 years ago I walked the Camino De Santiago over the Pyrenees and across Northern Spain and I had to ditch my brand new Chameleons after 4 days as they'd started falling apart. I've tried Salomon, North Face, Adidas, Nike, all absolute shite, don't last more than a couple of months. 

 

I now wear Altra. Not cheap but zero drop and wide toe box, much better for your feet and body overall.

Do you have any views on Hoka, TC? I'm meant to be walking the Camino De Santiago in a month or , tried Salomon, Merrell, North Face etc, and finally settled on these, with an extra wide toe box:

Edited August 10, 2023 by Eventually Right

[Errol]

9 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Pensioners often hoard wealth

What does this mean? How much is too much? what is a 'hoard'? Surely even a pensioner would need living expenses for a few years in a bank, a separate emergency fund, other accounts for savings, etc etc etc. This could be very large sums but wouldn't be 'hoarding'.

Sounds dangerously like government code for 'you have too much money and we want it'.

Edited August 10, 2023 by Errol

[dgul]

Wilko has gone.

[Lightly Toasted]

11 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensions/article-12390805/Pensions-cost-taxpayers-defence-policing-education-combined.html

Pensions to cost taxpayers more than defence, policing and education combined, figures show

The Government has said it will reach £124billion in the current financial year and is expected to stand at £135billion by 2025.

That would mean more public money spent on the state pension than on the combined day-to-day budgets of the Department for Education (estimated at £84.9billion in 2024-25), Home Office (£15.5billion) and Ministry of Defence (£32.8billion).

... Former pensions minister Sir Steve Webb warned NHS and social care spending will also have to increase as there are more elderly people to be looked after.

He said: 'Pensioners are a protected group electorally, [what does that mean? That they vote?] so the state pension gets protected. 

'The NHS is a kind of national religion and is protected. And therefore everything else gets squeezed. The time will come when none of those things can be squeezed any more, and that's when the crunch really comes.' ...

 

Comments saying that pensioners have earned it by paying in over their working careers; people don't realise that lifelong welfare claimants get NI contributions made on their behalf and are entitled to full state pension.

[Axeman123]

31 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I think Canada may rival the UK for most laughable house prices.

Canada and Australia absolutely dwarf us. Does anyone know how those two did pre 2008? I am wondering if they missed out on the pre 2008 run-up and this is the echo bubble.

Everywhere went mental on COVID stimulus, but Canada and Aus were starting from a ludicrously high baseline IMO.

8 minutes ago, Errol said:

What does this mean? How much is too much? what is a 'hoard'? Surely even a pensioner would need living expenses for a few years in a bank, a separate emergency fund, other accounts for savings, etc etc etc. This could be very large sums but wouldn't be 'hoarding'.

Sounds dangerously like government code for 'you have too much money and we want it'.

I was trying to put myself in a govt mindset. I actually agree with everything you have said from a moral perspective. Govts aren't moral though...

[dgul]

10 minutes ago, Lightly Toasted said:

... Former pensions minister Sir Steve Webb warned NHS and social care spending will also have to increase as there are more elderly people to be looked after.

He said: 'Pensioners are a protected group electorally, [what does that mean? That they vote?] so the state pension gets protected. 

'The NHS is a kind of national religion and is protected. And therefore everything else gets squeezed. The time will come when none of those things can be squeezed any more, and that's when the crunch really comes.' ...

 

Comments saying that pensioners have earned it by paying in over their working careers; people don't realise that lifelong welfare claimants get NI contributions made on their behalf and are entitled to full state pension.

Ah, but when they were paying in (well, during 80's say) they didn't believe that they'd get decades of life after retirement -- the benefit offered is 'larger' than they thought they'd be getting.

But I do get the main point here -- the state pension should be 'fairly decent' for those that have paid in, but for some reason they also give 'fairly decent' to vast numbers that didn't pay in -- and even those that didn't pay in get 'fairly decent' when other benefits are considered (the only 'losers' are those that didn't pay in but who also have savings/assets).

[JMD]

9 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

 

I think everyone should watch that video. It could have been lot shorter but it does put the perceived CBDC risk into context. (I know not everyone will agree. As I mentioned recently It seems to be one of those topics on here that divides opinion 50/50)

Essentially CBDCs are overhyped rather like Elon Musk's self-driving car tech is. I wrote some time back about the Chinese CBDC experiment being more about attempting to create a trusting/reputation based culture than about control. Of course China is totalitarian but the problem the authorities identified several decades ago - and still need to solve - is one of social cohesion between Chinese groups/cultures/rural villages, etc. I've referred before to China's 15 provinces (actually that might be slightly inaccurate?) and the comparison to the former USSRs own 15 republics that each had different languages and cultures, and of course what ultimately happened there. 

However I still think CBDCs will be used in the West. But it will probably be used to implement one or all of - currency reset/inflation control/UBI dependency state administration. As others have often said on here the government already has electronic oversight of our spending and far tighter control will happen once cash is banned. 

 

Edited August 10, 2023 by JMD