Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

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1 hour ago, JMD said:

I think everyone should watch that video. It could have been lot shorter but it does put the perceived CBDC risk into context. (I know not everyone will agree. As I mentioned recently It seems to be one of those topics on here that divides opinion 50/50)

Essentially CBDCs are overhyped rather like Elon Musk's self-driving car tech is. I wrote some time back about the Chinese CBDC experiment being more about attempting to create a trusting/reputation based culture than about control. Of course China is totalitarian but the problem the authorities identified several decades ago - and still need to solve - is one of social cohesion between Chinese groups/cultures/rural villages, etc. I've referred before to China's 15 provinces (actually that might be slightly inaccurate?) and the comparison to the former USSRs own 15 republics that each had different languages and cultures, and of course what ultimately happened there. 

However I still think CBDCs will be used in the West. But it will probably be used to implement one or all of - currency reset/inflation control/UBI dependency state administration. As others have often said on here the government already has electronic oversight of our spending and far tighter control will happen once cash is banned. 

 

The only I place I see the CBDC’s are coming anymore, is from the crypto bro’s and old school wealth managers trying to scare generational wealth.

Our lot can barely stop a bunch of kids from stealing sportswear and shop lifting isn’t prosecuted.  CBDC's for cross boarder transactions, sure.  But I find it embarrassing that people are still suggesting that the CBDC/Social credit score nonsense is even possible.   

[Eventually Right]

20 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I haven't tried them but I read up on them previously and I've only heard good things about them so I think they'll be spot on 👍

 

Is this your first Camino?

Yup, and quite possibly my last, given the state of my hip! 

[geordie_lurch]

Regarding Aldi - my local one has introduced a load of self scan checkouts which I'm not against if you have a basket or small trolley but as it was quiet they chose to have 2 staff members watch myself and several others having to use these for our full weekly shop rather than put one of them on a normal till! I told them in no uncertain terms if they did that to me each week I would go elsewhere and surprisingly another older lady seemed buoyed by this and said the same

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 minute ago, Eventually Right said:

Yup, and quite possibly my last, given the state of my hip! 

You're in for a treat, I'm envious. I keep saying I'll do it again but life keeps getting in the way. The sense of peace and nothing to think about, just you and the road.......nothing like it.

 

Just take it easy, rest when you need to. It's not a race, it's a soul cleanse. Oh, and get used to saying, and hearing "Buen Camino!". A lot. lol

[Long time lurking]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

I think everyone should watch that video. It could have been lot shorter but it does put the perceived CBDC risk into context. (I know not everyone will agree. As I mentioned recently It seems to be one of those topics on here that divides opinion 50/50)

Essentially CBDCs are overhyped rather like Elon Musk's self-driving car tech is. I wrote some time back about the Chinese CBDC experiment being more about attempting to create a trusting/reputation based culture than about control. Of course China is totalitarian but the problem the authorities identified several decades ago - and still need to solve - is one of social cohesion between Chinese groups/cultures/rural villages, etc. I've referred before to China's 15 provinces (actually that might be slightly inaccurate?) and the comparison to the former USSRs own 15 republics that each had different languages and cultures, and of course what ultimately happened there. 

However I still think CBDCs will be used in the West. But it will probably be used to implement one or all of - currency reset/inflation control/UBI dependency state administration. As others have often said on here the government already has electronic oversight of our spending and far tighter control will happen once cash is banned. 

 

If CBDC`s are introduced it will simply be for efficiency (see the tread Mr Pin started yesterday) ,they don`t need to introduce it to have the control ,pushed by the the you will own nothing mob ,they have that power already using the current system as already proven  

The last thing any government want to do is stop people spending money ,they want you to spend every penny you earn an more 

I have said it was all a psyop for years now and been mocked for just as long for saying it, i have asked the question that the guy alluded to in the first ten minutes or so on more than one occasion ( more and more in my game is now coming from China along with their sales/QA and engineering support) and received the same confused what the fuck are you talking about answers/looks

If the catalyst for all this is what`s outlined in that video ,one cant help but ask why the fuck dint they just ask Experian 

[Funn3r]

4 hours ago, TNS said:

yep, I didn't realise until i saw this comment, that there are that many single mums of 3 or more kids!

Forgot to mention 135bn for people who have paid into the system is less than the 144bn and climbing of those who choose not to work. A perfect example is the 780000 single mums of 3 or more who recieve over 35k a year in handouts now that's more than 3 times a person's state pension . Says alot really

I'm no fan of giving my taxes to people who choose not to work and who have a better lifestyle than my own.

But you could look at it a different way; most countries see declining fertility rate as a bad thing and a problem to be addressed. Russia, Finland, France Germany, etc. all have loads of explicit incentives to have more kids.

What if the UK government decided to employ 780000 people with a job description to create three new adults? A package of 35k/year might not look all that excessive surely considering the 24-hour care and covering the costs involved.

[Starsend]

14 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Couldn't agree more. There's very little correlation between quality and price these days.

 

The Camino is the best thing I ever did, I didn't want to come home. If money was no object I'd have carried on, just be a wanderer for life lol

Agree with that, best thing I ever did as well. Surprisingly hard walking long distances day after day. It's the first thing I'm planning on doing again when I retire (hopefully next year).

I'd recommend the coastal route from Porto as well, couple of weeks, not signposted with yellow arrows all the way like the main route is. Went to bed hungry a couple of times as well when I found myself in the middle of nowhere.

The route out from Santiago to Finisterre is a lovely walk as well. 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, Lightly Toasted said:

Comments saying that pensioners have earned it by paying in over their working careers; people don't realise that lifelong welfare claimants get NI contributions made on their behalf and are entitled to full state pension.

That is just as well. If they didn't they would end up on the more generous pension credit.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

47 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Holy shitfuck! Over three quarters of a million poncing huge amounts of money and that's just the ones with three or more kids. How many have one or two kids, probably millions and they'll still be getting housed and hosed down with free money. Decades of demonising men, encouraging divorce and handing free shit to women for being irresponsible and here are the end results. How the fuck does this get unwound!

You sound surprised, which surprises me greatly.

[Cattle Prod]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

Canada and Australia absolutely dwarf us.

Interestingly, both Canada and Ais dig their wealth out of the ground. It’s not a zero sum game in those countries, they get free additional input to their economies. I wonder is there a correlation, like who cares about extremely loose monetary policy, we can just dig it up?

Not sure how the UK fits into that but we know the UK used to dig up some free wealth. And spent it on welfare. And it’s still trying to. Might have squeezed a few bn from the windfall tax, should cover a few Westminster pensions and immigrant hotels.

[Sasquatch]

59 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

What type of Clubbing?

Dance or Seal?

I see 'seal clubbing' and I automatically think of the most excellent Half Man Half Biscuit:

 

I was just sitting there eating a salmonella sandwich
When a man walked up to me
“Would you mind, dear sir, if I asked you a question?
If music be the food of love, are you the indigestion?”
Wo-oh ippee ay oh

Found myself standing ‘mongst a score or so of ageing grans and granddads
When a frail voice asked of me:
“Would you mind, dear boy, I just can’t stand all this tension
Please let me in front of you so I can cash me pension”
No-oh ippee ay oh

Frank was going through a state of depression in his bedroom
When he reached out for the jar
He swallowed every last pill and he lay back on his duvet
A Haliborange overdose is perhaps not the right way
To ooh-ooh, to kill yourself

Down beside the babbling brook
I was trying to sketch myself a stallion
When the stallion said to me:
“That’s the third biro that you’ve broke and all day I cannot wait
You can lead a horse to water but a pencil must be lead mate”
Ooh-ooh said the stallion

Me and my girl – sealclubbing
Me and my girl – out on the ice
Me and my girl – sealclubbing
Me and my girl – ooh paradise

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21 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

If CBDC`s are introduced it will simply be for efficiency (see the tread Mr Pin started yesterday) ,they don`t need to introduce it to have the control ,pushed by the the you will own nothing mob ,they have that power already using the current system as already proven  

The last thing any government want to do is stop people spending money ,they want you to spend every penny you earn an more 

I have said it was all a psyop for years now and been mocked for just as long for saying it, i have asked the question that the guy alluded to in the first ten minutes or so on more than one occasion ( more and more in my game is now coming from China along with their sales/QA and engineering support) and received the same confused what the fuck are you talking about answers/looks

If the catalyst for all this is what`s outlined in that video ,one cant help but ask why the fuck dint they just ask Experian 

CBDC’s are a bigger problem for the western banking system, I expect they wish they’d just go away.
But conflating CBDC with a social credit score system / authoritarianism is probably a smart move.  

One for Errol.  Russia is in the process of piloting a CBDC, assuming it’s successful.  Would he buy into it, arguably the closest currency backed by the shiny stuff. 

Would anyone here buy into, say a Swiss CBDC.   Risk of confiscation by the Swiss Government maybe less than the risk of loss purchasing power holding it £ for 5 years.   Bounce your money into a Swiss CB account and use Elon’s everything app to buy anything with real time Exchange rates.  GBP devaluation, who cares.

Problem if you’re paid in GBP, but not so much if you're not.   CBDC’s are going to raise huge capital controls problems.  

[BWW]

1 hour ago, ashestoashes said:

would they have stopped you buying stuff if you weren't jabbed if they'd had CBDCs in the covid Pandemic ?

Well if they had, surely many would have just turned to theft and if neccessary, violence. I think they know that.

[JMD]

3 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/i/ishares-asia-pacific-dividend-ucits-etf

I have some money in this, it has a decent amount of exposure to Hong Kong.

Thanks that does look a good etf. Have you owned it long - just wondering on its divi payout, it's currently showing as 7% but is that pretty average or high/low for this etf?

 

MSE, did you mention on here that you buy gold sovereigns? Only I'm looking for smaller value gold coins (less than 1oz) in case the 1oz gold coins become too valuable to easily sell/trade in future (nice problem to have I know!). Anyway four gold sovereigns seem to sell for only slightly more than a 1oz gold coin (even when taking full account that the 1oz coins are usually 'larger' Troy ounces) so I think would be useful to own/stack.

I wonder, do you have any preference for which sovereigns might be best to buy (silly question perhaps, because gold sovereigns are gold sovereigns, and there is not much difference?), or maybe even a view on alternatives to buying sovereigns if objective is to buy smaller value gold coins which don't carry a large premium?

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, dgul said:

Wilko has gone.

Half the family appear to be basement dwellers and called the crash 8 years early-boy would they fit in with me on here

Better exit early than not at all.

Turnover (£1.4bn) is vanity profit is sanity meh!

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2015/07/sale-of-wilko-generates-family-63-pounds/

Sale of Wilko generates family £63m

By

Veebs Sabharwal

-

July 6, 2015

Half of the family behind the value retailer Wilkinson have pocketed £63m by selling out of the chain.

After 85 years of running the company together, the Wilkinson family split last year and Karin Swann, the founder‘s granddaughter and joint chairman, left the board.

According to The Telegraph, Swann‘s side of the family collected £63m from selling their holding in the company to the rest of the family, which is led by Lisa Wilkinson -now sole chairman.

The latest accounts show that sales fell by 1.2%, to £1.4bn in the year to Jan 31, sending pre-tax profits down from £27.6m to £5.5m. Wilkinson said she was “very disappointed” by the performance, which came despite the launch of a new advertising campaign.

 

 

 

Edited August 10, 2023 by sancho panza

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I think Canada may rival the UK for most laughable house prices.

..or most gullible buyers?!

[Funn3r]

57 minutes ago, azzuri82 said:

I can't say the same where I am - local Aldi and Lidl always normally well stocked and see the same staff faces regularly. 

The staff in Lidl were the same for ages. Like the nasty old bat on the till who was the only shop person ever to give me lip about not wearing a mask during the Covid Hoax.

She disappeared a couple of months ago and so did a few others who I had got used to. Now it's literally different employees every time (I only shop there once a month or so.)

[Long time lurking]

3 minutes ago, feed said:

 CBDC’s are going to raise huge capital controls problems.  

That is why they will never really become mainstream or certainly not replace our current system ,can you imagine how long it would take if a Northern rock situation occurred ,if you had instant transactions,how long would it take for a bank to lose all it`s reserves which is currently what ? ,10%  you could see that happening within the hour ,when you factor in the social media age and instant news 

My take on it is simple it will be used for cross border payments mostly just for it`s efficiency ,as for Russia and the BRICS in general they are simply building a alternative financial system from scratch ,they are simply using whats available today to build it wheres the current western system is simply from yesteryear,which was maintained under the age old premise of don`t fix something that's not broken ,but now theirs cl;early a far more efficient and rival system emerging on the horizon they simply have to do something to at least compete    

[M S E Refugee]

11 minutes ago, JMD said:

Thanks that does look a good etf. Have you owned it long - just wondering on its divi payout, it's currently showing as 7% but is that pretty average or high/low for this etf?

 

MSE, did you mention on here that you buy gold sovereigns? Only I'm looking for smaller value gold coins (less than 1oz) in case the 1oz gold coins become too valuable to easily sell/trade in future (nice problem to have I know!). Anyway four gold sovereigns seem to sell for only slightly more than a 1oz gold coin (even when taking full account that the 1oz coins are usually 'larger' Troy ounces) so I think would be useful to own/stack.

I wonder, do you have any preference for which sovereigns might be best to buy (silly question perhaps, because gold sovereigns are gold sovereigns, and there is not much difference?), or maybe even a view on alternatives to buying sovereigns if objective is to buy smaller value gold coins which don't carry a large premium?

I have only owned it for a couple of months.

https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/251567/ishares-asia-pacific-dividend-ucits-etf#/

If you are based in the UK I would just buy Sovereigns due to the CGT exemptions, I usually just buy the best value Sovereigns from either Atkinson's or Hatton Garden Metals, I have also heard good things about Chards in Blackpool if you are near that neck of the woods.

You can sometimes buy French and Swiss 20 Francs for small premiums which are in between the size of a Sovereign and a Half Sovereign.

I don't own any Gold at the moment as I sold it all to buy scrap Silver.

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6 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

That is why they will never really become mainstream or certainly not replace our current system ,can you imagine how long it would take if a Northern rock situation occurred ,if you had instant transactions,how long would it take for a bank to lose all it`s reserves which is currently what ? ,10%  you could see that happening within the hour ,when you factor in the social media age and instant news 

My take on it is simple it will be used for cross border payments mostly just for it`s efficiency ,as for Russia and the BRICS in general they are simply building a alternative financial system from scratch ,they are simply using whats available today to build it wheres the current western system is simply from yesteryear,which was maintained under the age old premise of don`t fix something that's not broken ,but now theirs cl;early a far more efficient and rival system emerging on the horizon they simply have to do something to at least compete    

I don’t think they can be stopped.  

A few years from now, we have an EU based, robust and well tested, stable coin based CBDC system for cross board transactions.  And the Nigerian government says they will offer anyone on the planet up to 20k USD central bank account.   

Would you buy it.  Nigerian, well probably not.  But what about Brazil, El Salvador, Vietnam.  Etc…    
There will come a point where a stable country is offering a central bank account that will have the risk/reward profile that will attract all sorts of retail.  

[dgul]

1 hour ago, Option5 said:

Not surprised, people blame management, market conditions etc.

No mention of the actions of the local councils making town centres practically inaccessible due to road schemes, speed bumps, pedestrianisation, cycle lanes, and most of all parking restrictions and charges.

Talk about killing the goose.

This is very true -- councils are working hard to make 'town centres' difficult for retail premises, while pushing for cafes and lifestyle type shops.  This will result in some trade, but it will be very closely matched to the state of the economy, ie, they've made town centres even more pro-cyclical (economic cycles), whereas previously there'd have been a core set of shops which would have been a bit more resilient to economic cycles (ie, people have to buy 'those things' no matter the economic state of the nation).

[Long time lurking]

59 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Regarding Aldi - my local one has introduced a load of self scan checkouts which I'm not against if you have a basket or small trolley but as it was quiet they chose to have 2 staff members watch myself and several others having to use these for our full weekly shop rather than put one of them on a normal till! I told them in no uncertain terms if they did that to me each week I would go elsewhere and surprisingly another older lady seemed buoyed by this and said the same

Everything has a silver lining ,bag of spuds and something small one is free 

[Starsend]

49 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

You sound surprised, which surprises me greatly.

I guess I'm not that surprised really, just shocking when you hear the numbers actually confirmed.

[Long time lurking]

3 minutes ago, feed said:

I don’t think they can be stopped.  

A few years from now, we have an EU based, robust and well tested, stable coin based CBDC system for cross board transactions.  And the Nigerian government says they will offer anyone on the planet up to 20k USD central bank account.   

Would you buy it.  Nigerian, well probably not.  But what about Brazil, El Salvador, Vietnam.  Etc…    
There will come a point where a stable country is offering a central bank account that will have the risk/reward profile that will attract all sorts of retail.  

For cross border payments it`s a certainty but for the general fractional reserve system i can`t see it removing cash completely ,your statement regarding what you say Nigeria are offering is somewhat proof of that as it has a 20k limit for the very reason i outlined regarding a NR situation the BOE have also stated similar regarding limiting the amount held in CBDC per account 

It has to happen to a point as it`s simply a case of survival  

If you are interested in what the BRICS are up to the video below puts forward a very interesting and plausible theory which fits quite well with what Glazyev has already alluded to 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

For cross border payments it`s a certainty but for the general fractional reserve system i can`t see it removing cash completely ,your statement regarding what you say Nigeria are offering is somewhat proof of that as it has a 20k limit for the very reason i outlined regarding a NR situation the BOE have also stated similar regarding limiting the amount held in CBDC per account 

It has to happen to a point as it`s simply a case of survival  

If you are interested in what the BRICS are up to the video below puts forward a very interesting and plausible theory which fits quite well with what Glazyev has already alluded to 

 

 

It’s not going to remove cash.   And it does present an opportunity for capital owners to have more control over their capital.  Seamless cross boarder payments.   They will need to find a mechanism to implement harsh capital controls, to prevent flight, which is going to be increasingly difficult because of CBDC mechanisms in place and the desire of EM's for capital.  

BOE need to offer a CBDC, with limits, simply because other nations will.  But, I bet they wish it would just go away.  

And of course, none of this is a social credit score.