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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

spunko

By spunko
in Property Prices & Economy

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Himura
Himura

OK so update on the credit crunch...it's here. Friend of mine co-owns a company that does property, 4 partners in total.  The biggest holding they have is a block of 62 student flats in Nottingha

DurhamBorn
DurhamBorn

You mean "Have you" seeing as your the grammar police.Im not really sure why go on threads just to try to belittle posters?.It really is not a good look.I share my work,you can take it or leave it,som

azzuri82
azzuri82

Long-time lurker. This thread, if you're not actively reading it every few days at most becomes too much to actually catch up on. I think since the last time I've properly been active on her

Posted Images

Stuey

Stuey

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

 

i don`t believe for one minute even if your predictions of significant falls in retail energy prices are correct it will feed into the economy in a matter of weeks to support cutting interest rates by the end of the year ,and that`s without factoring in spot prices are rising quite quickly again and IMO will continue to do so for a while yet 

Spot prices have also crumbled - these are week averages. 

 

 

 

Screenshot_20230811-093800.png

Edited by Stuey
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DurhamBorn

DurhamBorn

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Harley said:

Hopefully bought after March this year! :o

Wish we had been running out latest screens back then!  And then missed it again on the ex-div date.  Time for an Inquisition! 

PS:  Ah, the current ratio is not given.  Common for these types of stocks.  Our screen looks at that.  In two minds about including it.  Keeps us out of the financials though!  What do we do at times like these folks?  We do some sensitivity/whatif analysis and move forward!

FT said to sell back then,so i bought some more.I saw a photo of the FT team,woke is not in it.They could easily suffer more yet,mid sized asset managers are being squeezed,the macro case is that EM wealth funds will invest more and use those mid sized brokers rather than big US ones.Time will tell.The big risk on these companies is if AUM keep falling the companies have no real assets to reverse things.The upside is,if AUM starts an incnreasing cycles,divis can explode as almost all cash can be handed out.

-6% as of today including divis

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Long time lurking

Long time lurking

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Stuey said:

Spot prices have also crumbled - these are week averages. 

 

 

 

Screenshot_20230811-093800.png

Week 31 

81.24 vs 306.67 i`m no mathematician but that is not a 90% decrease and its still up on its 75.31 low 

But it`s the same ,it means jack shit until we see the significant drops in the retail price ,come back when they occur in October as you claim

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headrow

headrow

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Harley said:

Hopefully bought after March this year! :o

Wish we had been running out latest screens back then!  And then missed it again on the ex-div date.  Time for an Inquisition! 

PS:  Ah, the current ratio is not given.  Common for these types of stocks.  Our screen looks at that.  In two minds about including it.  Keeps us out of the financials though!  What do we do at times like these folks?  We do some sensitivity/whatif analysis and move forward!

I'm heavily invested in the asset management sector as I live on my dividend income and they are very generous. I'm down across the board on every one of them though.

 

N91 , Aberdeen , Jupiter , Premier Miton , Schroeder's.  All well down but I'm going to double down on them when we have a sell off as I've got a load of dividend income sat in cash.

 

Man Group , L&G , HSBC and Aviva have done me good though in the financial sector and I reckon I'd be better doubling down on them rather than the ones I'm currently under water on.

 

Fresnillo at 540p is looking very tempting though:D

Edited by headrow
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Stuey

Stuey

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

Week 31 

81.24 vs 306.67 i`m no mathematician but that is not a 90% decrease and its still up on its 75.31 low 

But it`s the same ,it means jack shit until we see the significant drops in the retail price ,come back when they occur in October as you claim

Delivery for tomorrow is £66.05/MWh.

On the home straight :)

All good news, we all want cheap energy right. 

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Errol

Errol

Posted
Posted
Just now, Stuey said:

Delivery for tomorrow is £66.05/MWh.

On the home straight :)

All good news, we all want cheap energy right. 

So retail prices to return to what they were in 2020? Or not?

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Stuey

Stuey

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Errol said:

So retail prices to return to what they were in 2020? Or not?

There's still all the additional government schemes to pay for, I suspect they've gone up a lot too. 

But wholesale is within reach of 2020 :) just another few percent to go. 

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Long time lurking

Long time lurking

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Stuey said:

Delivery for tomorrow is £66.05/MWh.

On the home straight :)

All good news, we all want cheap energy right. 

Is that price for me or wholesale unless it`s for me it still means jack shit 

And yes we all want cheaper energy but wanting and getting is not the same thing is it 

I will wait until October to see if your prediction of far cheaper retail gas prices comes to fruition

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Plan-b

Plan-b

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, azzuri82 said:

UPS drivers in USA earning $175k/year!

 

See - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66445496

 

£135k / year - with American tax rates these guys will be clearing £2k/week. 😱

UK just continues to fall further and further behind in terms of opportunities for productive folks.

 

Do this job and live in one of the income tax free states..

Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and Wyoming -   and Washington but this state does levy tax on investments.

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Harley

Harley

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Foor said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-664695

 

Sickening

 

Ukraine and Covid impact can't be fixed in one lever - minister
Here's some reaction from the government's Chief Secretary to the Treasury, John Glen.

The combined effect of Russia's war in Ukraine and the Covid pandemic "can't be fixed in one lever from the from the Treasury".

 

20 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Down £55,000, farming food grain is to high risk now 

 

 

Dr Natasha Campell-McBride (surprise!) on the Delingpod said grains are mostly shite to eat too!  :)

Livestock loving it up in the now green hills around here!  Dr Natasha Campell-McBride said....!

Edited by Harley
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dnb24

dnb24

Posted
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Posted
47 minutes ago, azzuri82 said:

UPS drivers in USA earning $175k/year!

 

See - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66445496

 

£135k / year - with American tax rates these guys will be clearing £2k/week. 😱

UK just continues to fall further and further behind in terms of opportunities for productive folks.

 

 

 

You can’t compare USA and UK wages like that- $45,000 of that will be healthcare benefits, $25k will be pension and other benefits (insurance, vacation- yes it’s included like a payment,sick leave benefit - they make about $80-100k all in if you subtract these benefits. Factor in the median wage in LA is $98k or that average teacher wages are $100k (without benefits taken into account). I was looking at moving to USA in my career as wages were in the $175-200k region, but talking to people over there in the same job- in the high paying areas- once housing, car and food was put into the equation I was no better off than staying put in the UK.

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Harley

Harley

Posted
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Posted
7 minutes ago, dnb24 said:

You can’t compare USA and UK wages like that- $45,000 of that will be healthcare benefits, $25k will be pension and other benefits (insurance, vacation- yes it’s included like a payment,sick leave benefit - they make about $80-100k all in if you subtract these benefits. Factor in the median wage in LA is $98k or that average teacher wages are $100k (without benefits taken into account). I was looking at moving to USA in my career as wages were in the $175-200k region, but talking to people over there in the same job- in the high paying areas- once housing, car and food was put into the equation I was no better off than staying put in the UK.

Funny, I once had the same conversation with a German who thought the UK salaries were attractive!  Plus the job was in Slough!

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Harley

Harley

Posted
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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

You're giving me @Libspero vibes man.

Some posters on DOSBODS are missing a trick. 

They could set up a thread people could visit along these lines.....

argument.gif.8f56fe7837cea68da979efe49c4d2087.gif

"This isn't an argument, this is just a contradiction".

"No it isn't"! :)

Edited by Harley
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Starsend

Starsend

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, azzuri82 said:

UPS drivers in USA earning $175k/year!

 

See - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66445496

 

£135k / year - with American tax rates these guys will be clearing £2k/week. 😱

UK just continues to fall further and further behind in terms of opportunities for productive folks.

 

 

 

That's something I started to notice a few years back, the way wages in America seemed to have opened up a huge gap with ours. Given that their economy has been outsourced as much as ours has it just goes to show how low wages in the UK have become. At this pace the elite are going to struggle when they desperately search the world looking for cheaper slaves than us. Cunts.

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Harley

Harley

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

FT said to sell back then,so i bought some more.I saw a photo of the FT team,woke is not in it.They could easily suffer more yet,mid sized asset managers are being squeezed,the macro case is that EM wealth funds will invest more and use those mid sized brokers rather than big US ones.Time will tell.The big risk on these companies is if AUM keep falling the companies have no real assets to reverse things.The upside is,if AUM starts an incnreasing cycles,divis can explode as almost all cash can be handed out.

-6% as of today including divis

TBF -6% even ex div could have put your buy at a number of fakeout points.  That's why we also look at the monthly to only buy into a neutral to positive trend.  Without that we could have bought too.  Still, 6% is nothing much. 

Interesting intermediate chart patterns going on in some of the sector players @headrow mentioned.  Wonder how they will resolve.  Dear players, please let me know if you see a breakout I might miss!

Edited by Harley
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sleepwello'nights

sleepwello'nights

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Stuey said:

It shows that deflation is baked in in energy prices, a key economic input. Nothing will change that now. 

Should I switch to a fixed price for electricity or hold out on a variable tariff?

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Stuey

Stuey

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Should I switch to a fixed price for electricity or hold out on a variable tariff?

I don't think it matters now that the government is fixing retail prices (based on a wholesale model). 

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Chewing Grass

Chewing Grass

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Foor said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-664695

 

Sickening

 

Ukraine and Covid impact can't be fixed in one lever - minister
Here's some reaction from the government's Chief Secretary to the Treasury, John Glen.

The combined effect of Russia's war in Ukraine and the Covid pandemic "can't be fixed in one lever from the from the Treasury".

Scapegoating their past follies - how convenient.

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Loki

Loki

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Foor said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-664695

 

Sickening

 

Ukraine and Covid impact can't be fixed in one lever - minister
Here's some reaction from the government's Chief Secretary to the Treasury, John Glen.

The combined effect of Russia's war in Ukraine and the Covid pandemic "can't be fixed in one lever from the from the Treasury".

It's gone now but "in one lever" is a bizarre expression I've never heard before, will it be everywhere soon?

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