Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

[Long time lurking]

11 minutes ago, feed said:

But, I bet they wish it would just go away.  

Without a doubt

That`s what the CBDC/Chines social credit psyop is all about ,the fact you have the IMF BIS central banks ect pushing the same shit tells you all you need to know, IMO Farage is now pushing it all into main stream 

They are not choosing to do it they are being forced into doing it ,and worse still they don`t know what the emerging competing system is going to be  

Edited August 10, 2023 by Long time lurking

[Funn3r]

48 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

That is why they will never really become mainstream or certainly not replace our current system ,can you imagine how long it would take if a Northern rock situation occurred ,if you had instant transactions,how long would it take for a bank to lose all it`s reserves which is currently what ? ,10%  you could see that happening within the hour ,when you factor in the social media age and instant news 

Surely though the Fat Controller sitting in front of a bunch of screens at the BOE would get a "bank run" alert? Then he would click on "rien ne va plus" and your Northern Rock CBDC app would announce that for your safety your withdraw button is currently greyed out.

[Errol]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Thanks that does look a good etf. Have you owned it long - just wondering on its divi payout, it's currently showing as 7% but is that pretty average or high/low for this etf?

 

MSE, did you mention on here that you buy gold sovereigns? Only I'm looking for smaller value gold coins (less than 1oz) in case the 1oz gold coins become too valuable to easily sell/trade in future (nice problem to have I know!). Anyway four gold sovereigns seem to sell for only slightly more than a 1oz gold coin (even when taking full account that the 1oz coins are usually 'larger' Troy ounces) so I think would be useful to own/stack.

I wonder, do you have any preference for which sovereigns might be best to buy (silly question perhaps, because gold sovereigns are gold sovereigns, and there is not much difference?), or maybe even a view on alternatives to buying sovereigns if objective is to buy smaller value gold coins which don't carry a large premium?

1/4 ounce Britannias are also available. And 999.9 gold. Also CGT exempt. Obviously these carry more of a premium than sovereigns.

Edited August 10, 2023 by Errol

[desertorchid]

6 hours ago, Harley said:

Nice to see steadily rising operating cash flow and low debt and intangibles.  Not the norm!  The HK market has been good to us and we've had none of the problems people like to warn us about, so far.

Our dilema atm is it and others pay just a few percent over the cash rate (6% here and biannually rather than 4% monthly).  I wonder if a mix of cash and an ETF would be better than a diversified number of stocks to manage for an income/capital preservation type portfolio. 

Now if/when it and others had an 8% yield well....!  But then hopefully the divs will increase with inflation but that's not a given and would be covered by an ETF to some (diluted?) extent. 

For now, we'll be picky, buying such stocks at higher yields to compensate for the risk while playing the ETFs for the sector, etc gains. Hard to find a global telco ETF though, just a US and a European one.

Agreed, whilst cash rate remains high it is very hard to justify taking any risk on most stocks atm. Having said that, some asian/china stocks are so bombed out that i think there must be some phenomenal yields and future prospects  available.

I see a few HK Reits that own some solid Malls/ Properties in Hong Kong offering around 8%. Their gearing is low 20-25% and (unlike the UK) hold assets which are not at any risk of decline. (The Chinese will NEVER stop shopping)

Example:

 

[Long time lurking]

14 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

Surely though the Fat Controller sitting in front of a bunch of screens at the BOE would get a "bank run" alert? Then he would click on "rien ne va plus" and your Northern Rock CBDC app would announce that for your safety your withdraw button is currently greyed out.

I don`t think it would be that simple ,just look at what BOE overnight funding is all about ,on a daily basis banks become technicality insolvent ,so they borrow from the BOE to meet their obligations 

[janch]

4 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Lierally a pension scheme with a country attached. You could even argue two of those three categories (plus minting PM coins as currency) are the only legitimate branches of government, and everything else is over-reach (maybe even including education).

The fact this figure is doing the rounds implies that the ruling class see this state of affairs as unsustainable IMO. Could we be about to see means testing of the state pension after the next election?

It's the pensions of ex-state employees which need cutting (as @DurhamBornkeeps reminding us about the inflation protected ex-coppers he knows).  Add in all the ex-civil servants/ex-council workers etc etc. 

The state pension is not the primary problem.

When the actuaries worked out the original terms of the pensions in payment no-one expected people to live for so long and the changes in interest rates (annuities).  Percentage increases over time soon add up and what a few years ago may have seemed a meagre pension can increase a lot when compounded at RPI or CPI.

As an aside, I don't know a lot about pensions but i always remember a training session when the lesson included the fact that the original state pension was payable to men age 65 as it gave men a year to get their affairs in order before they popped their clogs.

[Harley]

46 minutes ago, desertorchid said:

Agreed, whilst cash rate remains high it is very hard to justify taking any risk on most stocks atm. Having said that, some asian/china stocks are so bombed out that i think there must be some phenomenal yields and future prospects  available.

I see a few HK Reits that own some solid Malls/ Properties in Hong Kong offering around 8%. Their gearing is low 20-25% and (unlike the UK) hold assets which are not at any risk of decline. (The Chinese will NEVER stop shopping)

Example:

 

HK Reits, feck when you go in you go balls in deep!

 

Edited August 10, 2023 by Harley

[Option5]

48 minutes ago, janch said:

As an aside, I don't know a lot about pensions but i always remember a training session when the lesson included the fact that the original state pension was payable to men age 65 as it gave men a year to get their affairs in order before they popped their clogs.

FFS, I wish you'd told me earlier, I've been dead for 11 months 

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Starsend said:

Holy shitfuck! Over three quarters of a million poncing huge amounts of money and that's just the ones with three or more kids. How many have one or two kids, probably millions and they'll still be getting housed and hosed down with free money. Decades of demonising men, encouraging divorce and handing free shit to women for being irresponsible and here are the end results. How the fuck does this get unwound!

Your comment reminds me that through history many learned religious and non-religious people (ok all probably men, but that doesn't automatically invalidate their proposition!) have argued that it is men that create and maintain societies and it is women who create and nurture families. They also state both these created structures are crucial. But that any attempt at role reversal merely ends up destroying things...     Interestingly, Jordan Peterson regularly comments, that although he agrees with sex equality - it is actually a massive social experiment never tried before - and so no one can know how it will turn out. I think the first data is in, however having useless profligate 'democratic' governments has probably massively skewed the results?!

Edited August 10, 2023 by JMD

[Heart's Ease]

3 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Also the BMA restricts the number of training places available!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-62594141

Interesting article and although o/t to this thread the BMA scope of influence has been discussed a few times on DOSBODS over the years.  The Government has just reintroduced the cap on medical school training places. It's harder to turn the taps on to train more medics and dentists because of the need for clinical placements throughout the degree courses.

BMA is powerful professional representation, no doubt, but does not have the power to restrict the number of doctors in training or medical school places available.

[JMD]

3 hours ago, feed said:

The only I place I see the CBDC’s are coming anymore, is from the crypto bro’s and old school wealth managers trying to scare generational wealth.

Our lot can barely stop a bunch of kids from stealing sportswear and shop lifting isn’t prosecuted.  CBDC's for cross boarder transactions, sure.  But I find it embarrassing that people are still suggesting that the CBDC/Social credit score nonsense is even possible.   

Agreed. I was actually on board with the idea - of a Cental-Borg--Digital-Currency(!) happening - up until a few years ago, but no longer.

There are still other big tech risks like more and more online survaillance and privacy concerns for the individual, and those changes seem to be unstoppable mostly pushed through for 'security reasons', which is frightening.

Edited August 10, 2023 by JMD

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, Starsend said:

That sounds a pretty good figure given the shitshow that is the UK at the moment and the high risk of a currency slide. I'd like to get mine down to a similar figure, 20 - 25% would be happy with, over bloody 50 at the moment, I thought it was way less than that until I had a proper look.

The problem i have is what im seeing in the numbers looks like hyperbole and it could very well be that things turn,because roadmaps always do turn.However my numbers are horrific,and im talking off the scale.Not so much now,we could still reverse,but without massive policy changes,and i mean ones never seen before,then everything i track is turning vertical and worse the cross market is really strong in that each metric heading vertical is turning other things vertical.Bennies for instance adding to the destruction of productivity,immigration destroying per capita GDP etc.Nothing is even going to shit slowly,everything has real momentum.They are desperate for the tax take to increase,and it will,but the systemic collapse or not hinges on if it goes up faster than bennie spending.I dont think sterling will collapse,it might even rally some BUT there is a very real risk is plunges.I dont want to be on the end of that.Currency wipeout can take 99%.The irony is im even scared of holding the things like BT that should leverage inflation over the cycle,just in case polos legislate them etc.

Edited August 10, 2023 by DurhamBorn

[janch]

For once there was something relevant on BBC Woman's Hour about the rip-off student loan situation.  In my experience schools push university as the only way to go and kids take out loans for it when they have zero undestanding of what they are taking on. 

The report was about a woman whose loan was double the original amount even though she'd worked and had thereafter taken two periods of maternity leave.  The interest on the loan continued accruing all the time and the rates which were high have since gone even higher.  She and her husband had both left university at the same time and he had managed to pay his off as he was working the whole time.  This all affects the whole family's finances not only hers.  It's another way the middle classes are being hollowed out.

The only way to avoid it is to have a low paid job so you are under the threshold o pay it back and after 30 years under current rules the debt is cancelled but it's still taken into account for mortgage and other loan applications.

I would definitely work out the sums very carefully for anyone thinking of going to university as for many it really isn't worth it.  It's often just another way to keep people as debt slaves.

(Sorry no link)

[Democorruptcy]

41 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The problem i have is what im seeing in the numbers looks like hyperbole and it could very well be that things turn,because roadmaps always do turn.However my numbers are horrific,and im talking off the scale.Not so much now,we could still reverse,but without massive policy changes,and i mean ones never seen before,then everything i track is turning vertical and worse the cross market is really strong in that each metric heading vertical is turning other things vertical.Bennies for instance adding to the destruction of productivity,immigration destroying per capita GDP etc.Nothing is even going to shit slowly,everything has real momentum.They are desperate for the tax take to increase,and it will,but the systemic collapse or not hinges on if it goes up faster than bennie spending.I dont think sterling will collapse,it might even rally some BUT there is a very real risk is plunges.I dont want to be on the end of that.Currency wipeout can take 99%.The irony is im even scared of holding the things like BT that should leverage inflation over the cycle,just in case polos legislate them etc.

I had a chuckle at my cousin's email today. He's bought a secondhand car for 14k, he said he felt guilty about spending that amount of money, when so many people are struggling. He works full time and so does his wife. He must be an avid BBC news fan and believe the sob stories.

[DurhamBorn]

8 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I had a chuckle at my cousin's email today. He's bought a secondhand car for 14k, he said he felt guilty about spending that amount of money, when so many people are struggling. He works full time and so does his wife. He must be an avid BBC news fan and believe the sob stories.

I think underneath there is huge anger building,and it will only get worse and worse.Most now understand bennies are out of control.Its going to get very interesting.

[Red Debt Redemption]

20 hours ago, Harley said:

I go for fit first and that's brand dependent so Salamon for me (hiking and skiing).  Hard to get atm so just cheap but decent fitting boots are fine given their light use.  Just back from a 5k dog walk in the hills, my cheap trainers were fine.  That said, I had my first sprained ankle during a leisurely day long hill hike after many crazy decades so you can never be too careful, although a stick would have been better (concealed hole).

A £59.99 pair of trespass boots has been the one of the best for comfort I've had should have bought a few pairs for the loft as per this thread.

[Red Debt Redemption]

19 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

They can't help themselves

 

The European Union is preparing to impose sanctions on the new military government in Niger, European sources told Reuters on Wednesday.

An EU diplomat and an official involved in formulating the sanctions confirmed the bloc was devising criteria for punishment, set to include the “undermining of democracy.” 

The formula is likely to be agreed upon soon, the official told the news outlet.

 

The next step would be sanctions against individual members of the military government, said to be responsible for the ousting of former president Mohamed Bazoum last month,” the diplomat said.

No date has been supplied for when these sanctions might materialize, though foreign ministers from the bloc’s 27 countries are expected to discuss potential sanctions as well as other Niger-related issues when they meet in Toledo on August 31.

The EU has suspended security cooperation and financial support in response to last month’s seizure of power by a military faction led by General Abdourahamane Tchiani, cutting Niger off from hundreds of thousands of euros in aid. The US and Canada have also suspended some assistance programs, and several European countries - led by France, the former colonial ruler of Niger - have also cut the country off. 

Credit rating agency Moody’s downgraded Niger’s credit rating last week just days after the country banned uranium and gold exports to France, cutting Paris off from the world’s seventh-largest producer of the nuclear mineral - and the second-largest supplier to the EU. The World Bank has also terminated public-sector payments to Niger.

West African regional partnership ECOWAS devised a plan for military intervention in the country last week, giving the new government until Sunday to reinstate Bazoum. 

However, that deadline has come and gone without the threatened invasion, as ECOWAS is reportedly unprepared for a full-scale military intervention, according to senior military sources who spoke to the Wall Street Journal. 

Neighboring Burkina Faso and Mali have warned ECOWAS against military intervention, stating this would “amount to a declaration of war” on both countries and trigger self-defensive responses. Bazoum, currently in prison, has urged Washington to intervene, lest all of the Sahel “fall to Russian influence” - despite a lack of evidence Moscow played a role in the coup. US Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland personally flew to Niger to pressure the new government, warning them against striking any deals with Russian private military company Wagner and urging them to restore the Washington-friendly status quo.

Nigeriens largely supported the coup, according to a recent survey by The Economist - 78% backed the takeover, while 73% wanted their new leaders to retain power “for an extended period” or “until new elections are held.”

 

 

New thread: Niger investments. 

 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

New thread: Niger investments. 

 

Dem rangs

[sleepwello'nights]

1 hour ago, Heart's Ease said:

 

BMA is powerful professional representation, no doubt, but does not have the power to restrict the number of doctors in training or medical school places available.

Seems to contradict this post, which is what I believe is the situation. Then I don't know whether it's true or not.

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/4682882-why-dont-we-just-train-more-doctors#:~:text="Delegates at the annual BMA conference voted by,a complete ban on opening new medical schools.

[Axeman123]

Close to a Fed statement AIUI. CME fedwatch now pricing in less than a 10% chance of a Spetember rate rise.

[Stuey]

23 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Close to a Fed statement AIUI. CME fedwatch now pricing in less than a 10% chance of a Spetember rate rise.

December cuts inbound 

I'm seeing warning signs of deflation everywhere at the moment. 

[Long time lurking]

 

[Axeman123]

26 minutes ago, Stuey said:

December cuts inbound 

no

26 minutes ago, Stuey said:

I'm seeing warning signs of deflation everywhere at the moment. 

Yes, but also disinflation and galloping inflation at the same time depending where you look.

[Stuey]

4 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

no

Yes, but also disinflation and galloping inflation at the same time depending where you look.

Natgas down 6% today. 

[Plan-b]

34 minutes ago, Stuey said:

I'm seeing warning signs of deflation everywhere at the moment. 

I'm going with Stagflation is beginning