Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

[Lightscribe]

8 hours ago, Castlevania said:

They haven’t got a clue. They firmly believe that Liz Truss crashed the economy; Brexit is the cause of most of the UK’s economic problems and have never bothered to work out how the Latin American toilet cleaners who work part time can afford to have children in London. They’re cretins.

Speaking of…

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fbusiness%2F2023%2F08%2F10%2Fuk-stocks-record-discount-fuels-fears-of-exodus-to-wall-str%2F%23%3A~%3Atext%3DUK%20stocks%20are%20trading%20at%2CUK%20investment%20bank%20Panmure%20Gordon.

 

Erm…

Edited August 11, 2023 by Lightscribe

[Stuey]

10 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

True, but wasn't it way up yesterday?

It is almost as if...(gasp)...you aren't being entirely undisengenuous.

90% down in twelve months and Zerohedge is quoted on one of the few up days? 

 

 

 

[Long time lurking]

1 hour ago, Stuey said:

90% down in twelve months and Zerohedge is quoted on one of the few up days? 

 

 

 

I take your gas bill has done the same then 

Oil prices have halved over that period although rising again now but pump prices have fallen by less than 30% ,but our currency has increased in value against the $ by almost exactly the same percentage as the fall in pump prices 

Go figure 

[desertorchid]

More good news in the China Telecoms sector:

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-news/section/2/255082/China-Mobile-hails-'hard-earned'-76b-yuan

*China Mobile's (0941) net profit for the first six months of this year climbed up 8.4 percent yearly

*The operator increased the interim dividend by 10.5 percent

*As of June, the total number of mobile customers reached 985 million, versus 970 million a year ago

For some perspective Vodafone has a customer base of approx. 300 million. 

 

 

The danger here is the central government imposing controls on the sector as they hate too much success by corporates. Having said that they are somewhat tied atm with having to support a bombed out real estate sector

Edited August 11, 2023 by desertorchid

[MrXxxx]

UK Economy stronger in June than expected:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2023/aug/11/uk-gdp-economy-growth-stagnation-contraction-june-q2-business-live

...good news for the economy, bad news for homeowners [as it will 'allow' the BoE to justify further rate hikes]

[geordie_lurch]

4 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

UK Economy stronger in June than expected:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2023/aug/11/uk-gdp-economy-growth-stagnation-contraction-june-q2-business-live

...good news for the economy, bad news for homeowners [as it will 'allow' the BoE to justify further rate hikes]

I bet it didn't and they revise the figures at a later date

[Heart's Ease]

13 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Seems to contradict this post, which is what I believe is the situation. Then I don't know whether it's true or not.

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/4682882-why-dont-we-just-train-more-doctors#:~:text="Delegates at the annual BMA conference voted by,a complete ban on opening new medical schools.

We had a thread on this subject last year which made reference to that BMA conference vote. Bit more information in there on the legal powers of Health Education England - which is now part of NHS England. I have not looked to see how the legislation has been updated to reflect the HEE absorption, but the main point - BMA does not have the power to limit medical school places stands.

On the Mumsnet thread, the second post describes the clinical placements issue well.

 

[MrXxxx]

2 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

I bet it didn't and they revise the figures at a later date

Would the [our trustworthy] UK government really do that?...'wash you mouth out with soap' you conspiracy theorist! :-)))

[MrFanciful]

I think someone is fibbing

[Harley]

24 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

We had a thread on this subject last year which made reference to that BMA conference vote. Bit more information in there on the legal powers of Health Education England - which is now part of NHS England. I have not looked to see how the legislation has been updated to reflect the HEE absorption, but the main point - BMA does not have the power to limit medical school places stands.

On the Mumsnet thread, the second post describes the clinical placements issue well.

 

Reading the later post, that's not the reason given by the BMA for the vote.  I have other data points.  This issue does seem to get some going and I dislike the way the discussion goes given the ethos of this thread.  Our health service provision is pretty disfunctional and this does not help.  I'm not engaging in any more.  Best create a Ukraine like thread.

[Heart's Ease]

4 minutes ago, Harley said:

Reading the later post, that's not the reason given by the BMA for the vote.  I have other data points.  This issue does seem to get some going and I dislike the way the discussion goes given the ethos of this thread.  Our health service provision is pretty disfunctional and this does not help.  I'm not engaging in any more.  Best create a Ukraine like thread.

It's off topic for this thread, but we do strive for the truth and facts that can be triple backed up with hard evidence down here - and the truth is that the Government is responsible for setting a cap on medical school places.

Happy to continue the discussion on the thread I linked to from last year.

 

[Stuey]

1 hour ago, Long time lurking said:

I take your gas bill has done the same then 

Oil prices have halved over that period although rising again now but pump prices have fallen by less than 30% ,but our currency has increased in value against the $ by almost exactly the same percentage as the fall in pump prices 

Go figure 

For gas they hedge in advance. Don't be disingenuous and act like you didn't know this. 

[Long time lurking]

17 minutes ago, Stuey said:

For gas they hedge in advance. Don't be disingenuous and act like you didn't know this. 

Until the retail side see the hedged prices come down significantly inflation is going to do jack shit is it , my point was,,spot prices mean jack shit which is what you obviously failed to figure

[honkydonkey]

N91 dividend paid out today. 

[Stuey]

15 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

Until the retail side see the hedged prices come down significantly inflation is going to do jack shit is it , my point was,,spot prices mean jack shit which is what you obviously failed to figure

It shows that deflation is baked in in energy prices, a key economic input. Nothing will change that now. 

[Long time lurking]

6 minutes ago, Stuey said:

It shows that deflation is baked in in energy prices, a key economic input. Nothing will change that now. 

Yet oil and gas prices are starting to rise ,by winter we will know ,and until those prices reductions hit the retail sector nothing will change 

So now tell me when do you reckon the retail sector will see a significant drop in prices ,it must be very soon if you claim there will be rate cuts by the end of the year give us a date 

Edited August 11, 2023 by Long time lurking

[Harley]

To our Aussie compatriots.  The ASX has been a somewhat fertile place of late.  Some big div players and even the ASX ETF was a play a while back.  So what's the skinny on Harvey Norman (HVN)?  We got in at the low.  Would have missed it given it's coded as "Retail" but is actually franchisor by the sound of it.  Goes to show how taking things at face value, labeling things and people, etc is for the losers!

PS:  Got back into Aussie coal a bit back too despite all the renewable noise coming out of Aus.  The noise at their resistance point caused us to pull back there.  May not be over but it looks like our system needs to be tweaked for such points.  We'll see.

PPS:  Bagger, forgot the Aussie WHT!  30%?  Thought we were all in it together!

Edited August 11, 2023 by Harley

[onlyme]

3 minutes ago, Stuey said:

It shows that deflation is baked in in energy prices, a key economic input. Nothing will change that now. 

Not so sure, still plenty going on in the background - oil largely down thanks to the draining of the SPR, that effect is not limitless, regardless OPEC still have the option of cutting production back further. Also, the pullback in energy cost surely has already been factored into the main inflation indices - not produced outright deflation, just diffused ongoing inflation elsewhere.  Counter to that manufacturers may not have fully reset their pricing thanks to relief on the energy front, but then inflation tends to be sticky and they will want to keep prices high especiallyif they do have a reduction in demand as they still need to cover all their other fixed costs which have already risen massively over the last few years.

[Harley]

40 minutes ago, honkydonkey said:

N91 dividend paid out today. 

Hopefully bought after March this year!

Wish we had been running out latest screens back then!  And then missed it again on the ex-div date.  Time for an Inquisition! 

PS:  Ah, the current ratio is not given.  Common for these types of stocks.  Our screen looks at that.  In two minds about including it.  Keeps us out of the financials though!  What do we do at times like these folks?  We do some sensitivity/whatif analysis and move forward!

Edited August 11, 2023 by Harley

[Stuey]

10 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

Yet oil and gas prices are starting to rise ,by winter we will know ,and until those prices reductions hit the retail sector nothing will change 

So now tell me when do you reckon the retail sector will see a significant drop in prices ,it must be very soon if you claim there will be rate cuts by the end of the year give us a date 

It depends how long they have fixed at the higher prices. Some will be currently unhedged from 1st October (this and 1st April are the major contract rounds for industry - they don't fix at random times like domestic can.) 

10 minutes ago, onlyme said:

Not so sure, still plenty going on in the background - oil largely down thanks to the draining of the SPR, that effect is not limitless, regardless OPEC still have the option of cutting production back further. Also, the pullback in energy cost surely has already been factored into the main inflation indices - not produced outright deflation, just diffused ongoing inflation elsewhere.  Counter to that manufacturers may not have fully reset their pricing thanks to relief on the energy front, but then inflation tends to be sticky and they will want to keep prices high especiallyif they do have a reduction in demand as they still need to cover all their other fixed costs which have already risen massively over the last few years.

What is national oil spend versus gas + elec spend?

[onlyme]

3 minutes ago, Stuey said:

It depends how long they have fixed at the higher prices. Some will be currently unhedged from 1st October (this and 1st April are the major contract rounds for industry - they don't fix at random times like domestic can.) 

What is national oil spend versus gas + elec spend?

Thinking more of international than national in regards oil, so fundamental for the transportation of everything. I was trying to work out quite why US food prices had ratcheted up so much vs the UK maybe transport costs have played a large part in that, they have the econmies of scale but grow and prouction areas often a long way form their target markets maybe.   

[leonardratso]

and yet you pick one day for 6% drop in NG prices?

[Harley]

2 hours ago, desertorchid said:

More good news in the China Telecoms sector:

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-news/section/2/255082/China-Mobile-hails-'hard-earned'-76b-yuan

*China Mobile's (0941) net profit for the first six months of this year climbed up 8.4 percent yearly

*The operator increased the interim dividend by 10.5 percent

*As of June, the total number of mobile customers reached 985 million, versus 970 million a year ago

For some perspective Vodafone has a customer base of approx. 300 million. 

 

 

The danger here is the central government imposing controls on the sector as they hate too much success by corporates. Having said that they are somewhat tied atm with having to support a bombed out real estate sector

A telco with a DTE of 9%!  Must be fibbing, so they say, not that anyone else does if that's the case!  Maybe overbought on the monthly but you don't think that chart pattern on the weekly and/or monthly is a.........., ya know, do ya?!

Oy DB, time to stop this "no-play" or playing around with forex fees and ADRs if ya going international.  Get yourself a proper broker!  Plenty do HK and most of the rest!  Just have a drink before bedtime, wake up at 03:00, and off ya go! 

Edited August 11, 2023 by Harley

[Errol]

40 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

Yet oil and gas prices are starting to rise ,by winter we will know ,and until those prices reductions hit the retail sector nothing will change 

So now tell me when do you reckon the retail sector will see a significant drop in prices ,it must be very soon if you claim there will be rate cuts by the end of the year give us a date 

Next move for energy retail prices will be up, not down. A really hard winter will be catastrophic.

Edited August 11, 2023 by Errol

[Long time lurking]

27 minutes ago, Stuey said:

It depends how long they have fixed at the higher prices. Some will be currently unhedged from 1st October (this and 1st April are the major contract rounds for industry - they don't fix at random times like domestic can.)

Noted and book marked so October and April retail gas prices will fall significantly how long do you think it will take these falls to then feed through to consumer prices of manufactured goods 

i don`t believe for one minute even if your predictions of significant falls in retail energy prices are correct it will feed into the economy in a matter of weeks to support cutting interest rates by the end of the year ,and that`s without factoring in spot prices are rising quite quickly again and IMO will continue to do so for a while yet