Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 7)

[leonardratso]

9 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

It's not because AI has found an alternative substance to silver is it, like Lithium?

 

 

yeh but the new substance is only available on mars, so have to get a truck out there to bring it back.

[Democorruptcy]

1 minute ago, leonardratso said:

yeh but the new substance is only available on mars, so have to get a truck out there to bring it back.

A lot of billionaires seem to want to get into space these days.

[leonardratso]

9 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

A lot of billionaires seem to want to get into space these days.

i think we should help them. By donating to a cause.
I missed the titanic sub donation.

[MightyTharg]

12 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

A lot of billionaires seem to want to get into space these days.

You can get in on it by buying Seraphim. Now available at better than half price!

Fill your boots.

[Lightscribe]

4 hours ago, Boon said:

I do wonder if something is causing the media tide to turn against asylum seekers? It seems weird it seems that for once its getting some momentum behind it, and this acid story is a catalyst.

I can't help thinking it's all part of the plan? 

Make things turn to shit while talking hard policy, in the knowledge that Labour will be more lenient and will argue against it. That could sway some voters on the premise that it is shit now, but it could be even shitter.

Wouldn’t that be a turn up for the books.

Almost like putting the cat amongst the pigeons like in the Middle East, which they already know will cause divide and internal strife within western nations whilst stoking inflation on top of insane economic policy and demographics that they’ve helped mould and shape in the first place. 

That’s without even getting to the ridiculous WEF policies and 2030 goals etc. Almost like it’s intentional.

Almost like the goal is eventual chaos and disorder.

[Ash4781b]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-68170068.amp
 

“Artificial Intelligence (AI) will not be a "mass destroyer of jobs" and human workers will learn to work with new technologies, the governor of the Bank of England has told the BBC.”

 

oh no 🙈 we’re doomed

[Funn3r]

1 minute ago, Ash4781b said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-68170068.amp
 

“Artificial Intelligence (AI) will not be a "mass destroyer of jobs" and human workers will learn to work with new technologies, the governor of the Bank of England has told the BBC.”

 

oh no 🙈 we’re doomed

Oh phew we're saved. If a supersmart guy like him says it's OK, it's OK.

[Castlevania]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its not missing,its getting interest that goes to HL that will then go to me in divis and then my masseuse 

It arrived today. No free money for you  

[Castlevania]

5 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

I don't beleive these US job numbers, and suspect by the end of the day the markets won't either.

Silver slammed by 70c/oz is algos responding to headlines IMO.

I agree. They’ll be heavily revised. So I took the opportunity and bought a load of rubbish (Sibanye; Implats; Braskem; Bayer).

[ste]

5 hours ago, Boon said:

I do wonder if something is causing the media tide to turn against asylum seekers? It seems weird it seems that for once its getting some momentum behind it, and this acid story is a catalyst.

I can't help thinking it's all part of the plan? 

Make things turn to shit while talking hard policy, in the knowledge that Labour will be more lenient and will argue against it. That could sway some voters on the premise that it is shit now, but it could be even shitter.

Israel is too busy with issues on their own doorstep to keep check on everything as it used to. Subverting the west is on the back burner, for now.

I'm sure normal business will be resumed before it gets too out of hand.

[Mandalorian]

6 hours ago, Boon said:

I do wonder if something is causing the media tide to turn against asylum seekers? It seems weird it seems that for once its getting some momentum behind it, and this acid story is a catalyst.

I can't help thinking it's all part of the plan? 

Make things turn to shit while talking hard policy, in the knowledge that Labour will be more lenient and will argue against it. That could sway some voters on the premise that it is shit now, but it could be even shitter.

It IS shit now and it WILL be even shitter.

[AWW]

9 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

I agree. That is the future though.

Every vehicle is morphing towards that shape, people want more interior space but parking spaces etc are a hard limit on increasing external dimensions. Just like skyscrapers in Manhattan etc the only solution to limited real estate is to build upwards, in this case by stacking the passenger compartment on top to the mechanicals so it can run almost the full length of the wheelbase.

A lot of current gen hatchbacks have the base of the windscreen pretty much directly over the front axles, and the mechanicals wedged under the dashboard. That is also why the quarter light window has made a comeback, to resolve the weird expanse between the leading edge of the front doors and windscreen. Everything forward of that is just crumple zone. Sooner or later the quest for interior space within a given external size will win out over the cosmetics of wanting a bonnet sticking out.

We've a T6 so already converts to the cause.

[Democorruptcy]

7 hours ago, Boon said:

I do wonder if something is causing the media tide to turn against asylum seekers? It seems weird it seems that for once its getting some momentum behind it, and this acid story is a catalyst.

I can't help thinking it's all part of the plan? 

Make things turn to shit while talking hard policy, in the knowledge that Labour will be more lenient and will argue against it. That could sway some voters on the premise that it is shit now, but it could be even shitter.

I think the far left media have decided to turn a little anti-asylum seekers just to blame the Tories for it, to try win Labour some votes. However if Labour get in, they will then turn luvvy asylum seekers and be even worse than the Tories.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Reading Atlas Shrugged and, for all of her undoubted faults, Rand certainly saw to the heart of the matter.

"When you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing - When you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors - When you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don’t protect you against them, but protect them against you - When you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice - You may know that your society is doomed."

 

Is there a more perfect description of Britain?

[Democorruptcy]

DJA & S&P hit new all time highs. Uncle Dave's just been dancing singing "Watch & Learn"

[Harley]

For the sake of balance.  NIC on ASX up nicely since I got the nod.  Went ex-div today with only a slight pullback.  Shame about the Aussie WHT though.

[sancho panza]

The Graf expsoing the harsh realities of teh green con.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/02/west-humiliating-electric-car-climbdown-begun/

The West’s humiliating electric car climbdown has begun

Ambitious plans for an electrification-led industrial revolution are in full-scale retreat

France’s President Macron had a plan to make millions of electric vehicles a year. Chancellor Scholz planned to put 15 million on Germany’s roads by 2030. President Biden trumped the lot with a $174bn (£138bn) plan to make the US the world leader. Even Boris Johnson – remember him – had a £1bn plan to beef up our charging network.

Rewind only a couple of years, and almost every president or prime minister was making electric vehicles the cornerstone of an industrial strategy. And yet, this week we have learned that Renault is abandoning plans to separately list its electric vehicle (EV) and software business, while Volvo is winding down its Polestar electric sports car subsidiary.

It looks like all those “well-paid green jobs” are going to take a little longer to arrive than anyone anticipated. As for the payback on huge sums various governments have “invested” in the industry, it looks like the returns on that money will take a while to come through as well.

And yet, right now, plans for an EV-led industrial revolution are in full-scale retreat.

There is nothing wrong with EVs themselves. They are often great as run-arounds for dense urban environments, and as long as the raw materials are sourced correctly, and the chargers are not powered by coal-burning generators, they are probably a little better for the environment than the petrol version.

If people want them, then that’s great. The trouble with the industry right now is that demand is falling because the vehicles cost far more than anyone expected, and what market there is will be captured by Chinese manufacturers such as BYD that can make vehicles far more cheaply than anyone in the West can. The result? A lot of government money will be wasted.

There is nothing wrong with EVs themselves. They are often great as run-arounds for dense urban environments, and as long as the raw materials are sourced correctly, and the chargers are not powered by coal-burning generators, they are probably a little better for the environment than the petrol version.

If people want them, then that’s great. The trouble with the industry right now is that demand is falling because the vehicles cost far more than anyone expected, and what market there is will be captured by Chinese manufacturers such as BYD that can make vehicles far more cheaply than anyone in the West can. The result? A lot of government money will be wasted.

There is a lesson in the humiliating climbdown. State-led industrial strategies never work. Indeed, the failure of the drive into EV is a textbook example of everything that goes wrong.

First, it backs the wrong industries. No one really has any idea what products people might want in five or ten years time, which is why it is best to leave it to private companies and their investors to make their own bets, reap the rewards when they get it right, and bear the losses when they don’t.

Politicians and bureaucrats are no better at making those decisions, as usually a lot worse. Don’t believe me? Just ask consumers. Hertz in the US is disposing of the 20,000 EVs it bought with great fanfare in recent years, and is replacing them with petrol models, due to lack of demand. Over the past year, figures from the Society for Motor Manufacturers and Traders revealed a steep fall in EV interest from private buyers.

Next, the state over-invests. Even if there is a small market for EVs, there certainly wasn’t space for huge new industries in France, Germany, the US, or in a dozen smaller countries.

There is a lesson in the humiliating climbdown. State-led industrial strategies never work. Indeed, the failure of the drive into EV is a textbook example of everything that goes wrong.

First, it backs the wrong industries. No one really has any idea what products people might want in five or ten years time, which is why it is best to leave it to private companies and their investors to make their own bets, reap the rewards when they get it right, and bear the losses when they don’t.

Politicians and bureaucrats are no better at making those decisions, as usually a lot worse. Don’t believe me? Just ask consumers. Hertz in the US is disposing of the 20,000 EVs it bought with great fanfare in recent years, and is replacing them with petrol models, due to lack of demand. Over the past year, figures from the Society for Motor Manufacturers and Traders revealed a steep fall in EV interest from private buyers.

Next, the state over-invests. Even if there is a small market for EVs, there certainly wasn’t space for huge new industries in France, Germany, the US, or in a dozen smaller countries.

Finally, it distorts the market with subsidies. Governments start out spending a few billion on new EV factories, then they have to start subsidising the EVs so that people actually buy them, then they have to impose tariffs and quotas to stop imports from countries where other government have invested too much.

[Loki]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

The Graf expsoing the harsh realities of teh green con.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/02/west-humiliating-electric-car-climbdown-begun/

The West’s humiliating electric car climbdown has begun

Ambitious plans for an electrification-led industrial revolution are in full-scale retreat

France’s President Macron had a plan to make millions of electric vehicles a year. Chancellor Scholz planned to put 15 million on Germany’s roads by 2030. President Biden trumped the lot with a $174bn (£138bn) plan to make the US the world leader. Even Boris Johnson – remember him – had a £1bn plan to beef up our charging network.

Rewind only a couple of years, and almost every president or prime minister was making electric vehicles the cornerstone of an industrial strategy. And yet, this week we have learned that Renault is abandoning plans to separately list its electric vehicle (EV) and software business, while Volvo is winding down its Polestar electric sports car subsidiary.

It looks like all those “well-paid green jobs” are going to take a little longer to arrive than anyone anticipated. As for the payback on huge sums various governments have “invested” in the industry, it looks like the returns on that money will take a while to come through as well.

And yet, right now, plans for an EV-led industrial revolution are in full-scale retreat.

There is nothing wrong with EVs themselves. They are often great as run-arounds for dense urban environments, and as long as the raw materials are sourced correctly, and the chargers are not powered by coal-burning generators, they are probably a little better for the environment than the petrol version.

If people want them, then that’s great. The trouble with the industry right now is that demand is falling because the vehicles cost far more than anyone expected, and what market there is will be captured by Chinese manufacturers such as BYD that can make vehicles far more cheaply than anyone in the West can. The result? A lot of government money will be wasted.

There is nothing wrong with EVs themselves. They are often great as run-arounds for dense urban environments, and as long as the raw materials are sourced correctly, and the chargers are not powered by coal-burning generators, they are probably a little better for the environment than the petrol version.

If people want them, then that’s great. The trouble with the industry right now is that demand is falling because the vehicles cost far more than anyone expected, and what market there is will be captured by Chinese manufacturers such as BYD that can make vehicles far more cheaply than anyone in the West can. The result? A lot of government money will be wasted.

There is a lesson in the humiliating climbdown. State-led industrial strategies never work. Indeed, the failure of the drive into EV is a textbook example of everything that goes wrong.

First, it backs the wrong industries. No one really has any idea what products people might want in five or ten years time, which is why it is best to leave it to private companies and their investors to make their own bets, reap the rewards when they get it right, and bear the losses when they don’t.

Politicians and bureaucrats are no better at making those decisions, as usually a lot worse. Don’t believe me? Just ask consumers. Hertz in the US is disposing of the 20,000 EVs it bought with great fanfare in recent years, and is replacing them with petrol models, due to lack of demand. Over the past year, figures from the Society for Motor Manufacturers and Traders revealed a steep fall in EV interest from private buyers.

Next, the state over-invests. Even if there is a small market for EVs, there certainly wasn’t space for huge new industries in France, Germany, the US, or in a dozen smaller countries.

There is a lesson in the humiliating climbdown. State-led industrial strategies never work. Indeed, the failure of the drive into EV is a textbook example of everything that goes wrong.

First, it backs the wrong industries. No one really has any idea what products people might want in five or ten years time, which is why it is best to leave it to private companies and their investors to make their own bets, reap the rewards when they get it right, and bear the losses when they don’t.

Politicians and bureaucrats are no better at making those decisions, as usually a lot worse. Don’t believe me? Just ask consumers. Hertz in the US is disposing of the 20,000 EVs it bought with great fanfare in recent years, and is replacing them with petrol models, due to lack of demand. Over the past year, figures from the Society for Motor Manufacturers and Traders revealed a steep fall in EV interest from private buyers.

Next, the state over-invests. Even if there is a small market for EVs, there certainly wasn’t space for huge new industries in France, Germany, the US, or in a dozen smaller countries.

Finally, it distorts the market with subsidies. Governments start out spending a few billion on new EV factories, then they have to start subsidising the EVs so that people actually buy them, then they have to impose tariffs and quotas to stop imports from countries where other government have invested too much.

Markyboy on life support

[Bien Pensant]

4 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Reading Atlas Shrugged and, for all of her undoubted faults, Rand certainly saw to the heart of the matter.

"When you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing - When you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors - When you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don’t protect you against them, but protect them against you - When you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice - You may know that your society is doomed."

 

Is there a more perfect description of Britain?

Probably my favourite passage:

So he had to beg in public for relief from his needs, like any lousy moocher, listing all his troubles and miseries, down to his patched drawers and his wife's head colds, hoping that 'the family' would throw him the alms. He had to claim miseries, because it's miseries, not work, that had become the coin of the realm - so it turned into a contest among six thousand panhandlers, each claiming that his need was worse than his brother's. How else could it be done?

Do you care to guess what happened, what sort of men kept quiet, feeling shame, and what sort got away with the jackpot?

Edited February 3 by Bien Pensant

[Lightscribe]

Oh look those darn pesky Iranians have gone and wiped Albania’s census data dammit.

Now we won’t be able to account for where they all are…what a bummer.

We better democracy bomb a few more targets in retaliation just for good measure.

Edited February 3 by Lightscribe

[Lightscribe]

Is that you @Loki? 

Edited February 3 by Lightscribe

[Cattle Prod]

6 hours ago, sancho panza said:

There is a lesson in the humiliating climbdown. State-led industrial strategies never work. Indeed, the failure of the drive into EV is a textbook example of everything that goes wrong.

I say this to my colleagues who are trying to “transition” (see what I did there 🤭) to CCS and I think I’ve said it here too: it’s not a real business if it needs government support or mandates. If it was any good (like LED lightbulbs for example) the market will rapidly roll it out for you. I remember saying it about BP and their green transition in 2020 - not a real business, and your shareholders will punish you for it. Which they are. Well done Telegraph, get it out there.

[Cattle Prod]

23 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Clearly the demand is there for the product, but it seems from the above that production may not be financially viable.

Great post LS nice bit of sleuthing. That’s a head scratcher and worth thinking about…what has gotten so expensive for them that they can’t produce a tub of salt that’s selling for £50? It wouldn’t be labour or raw materials, msybe the production line is worn out and they decided to not replace it? Maybe can’t get the machined parts for it now Germany is powering down and China is expensive? I’m guessing here but it’s pointing toward something important missing in British manufacturing supply chain.

[wherebee]

36 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I say this to my colleagues who are trying to “transition” (see what I did there 🤭) to CCS and I think I’ve said it here too: it’s not a real business if it needs government support or mandates. If it was any good (like LED lightbulbs for example) the market will rapidly roll it out for you. I remember saying it about BP and their green transition in 2020 - not a real business, and your shareholders will punish you for it. Which they are. Well done Telegraph, get it out there.

the only time state lead strategies work is wartime, when you need to throw a million darts at a wall in order to make a picture, and lose a lot of money doing so, because if you don't the other person wins and you die.

although the chinese model is kind of working - tell the banks where to lend (this year, semiconductor startups, next year, kite designers, year after, fishing pole inventors) and then the market picks the winners.

[Cattle Prod]

45 minutes ago, wherebee said:

e only time state lead strategies work is wartime, when you need to throw a million darts at a wall in order to make a picture, and lose a lot of money doing so, because if you don't the other person wins and you die.

That’s true, and I’d argue it works because the state gets flooded by private sector practices and people as the economy goes on a war footing. You can see the weak leaders being pushed aside pretty rapidly due to the urgency of the matter. Generals and admirals got rapidly tried out and fired till you got a good one, the sclerotic statist bureaucrat types are kicked out. Same goes for processes, I can imagine the pre war “state procurement department” being burnt to the ground on day 1. The state was also much smaller and less interfering pre WWII too, even if they had a hand in say getting Spitfires built, they let the geniuses and entrepreneurs get on with it.

I can hear them now saying “what do you mean a Merlin engine burns out after 300 hours, we can’t afford/sanction/approve/tolerate that are you insane?? Give us a slower one that lasts 5000 hours”. If you’ve ever heard one of those beauties (I get them flying over my house during air show season) you’ll be glad they didn’t.