Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[Frank Hovis]

2 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

Your not going to live forever so whats the point of managing your pension pot like you are.

 

It's because I have a current need for my investments - to produce an income - but when my pensions kick in at 65 I have no need for them and can buy a very nice house. Perhaps.

[Errol]

2 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

Your not going to live forever so whats the point of managing your pension pot like you are.

Who wants to live forever?

[goldbug9999]

6 minutes ago, Errol said:

Who wants to live forever?

I was alluding to the fact that an annuity is "forever" and hence implicitly a bad deal when your life is in fact finite.

[Calcutta]

If I wanted easy reliable income I'd register with a doctor, get an appointment, tell them I was sad, then get paid a couple of grand a month and given a free japanese shit box SUV.

Then sell the meds, maybe invest in a bit of coke, cook it up and jobs a good'un.

Turn £200 of ching, a few pennies worth of gas on the hob and a 99p tub of bicarb into £600 worth of crack which would sell in a couple of hours. Tbf once word got out it'd probably all be gone in one walk to the shop.

Vallies and gabapentin will go for a quid each, that's another fifty quid a week easy.

Carers allowance, food banks, pumping out kids.

The fact of the matter is if I wanted easy boring money I'm not fucking about buying a tracker fund and paying some coked up funboy in a Teflon suit to skim 0.05% off me.

If you're going to do that you may as well just put it in a savings account and not bother yourself with the workings of a seven year old internet thread spread across two obscure websites. 

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

And the moral is........most people are utter fuckwits

 

 

[Errol]

34 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

And the moral is........most people are utter fuckwits

 

 

Totally retarded people.

[wherebee]

7 minutes ago, Errol said:

Totally retarded people.

California

[Red Debt Redemption]

1 hour ago, Calcutta said:

If I wanted easy reliable income I'd register with a doctor, get an appointment, tell them I was sad, then get paid a couple of grand a month and given a free japanese shit box SUV.

Then sell the meds, maybe invest in a bit of coke, cook it up and jobs a good'un.

Turn £200 of ching, a few pennies worth of gas on the hob and a 99p tub of bicarb into £600 worth of crack which would sell in a couple of hours. Tbf once word got out it'd probably all be gone in one walk to the shop.

Vallies and gabapentin will go for a quid each, that's another fifty quid a week easy.

Carers allowance, food banks, pumping out kids.

The fact of the matter is if I wanted easy boring money I'm not fucking about buying a tracker fund and paying some coked up funboy in a Teflon suit to skim 0.05% off me.

If you're going to do that you may as well just put it in a savings account and not bother yourself with the workings of a seven year old internet thread spread across two obscure websites. 

 

I know this one!

[Red Debt Redemption]

50 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

And the moral is........most people are utter fuckwits

 

 

@Loki  

Dosbods Max of Madness.

[AWW]

5 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

It does surprise me how little effort people put into their finances.

The ready buying of annuities from DC pots is financial lunacy but a whole industry is based upon it.

There is an argument to be made that the man in the street shouldn't have to know much about it. Look how much effort we're making on this thread just to stay ahead of inflation. Time that could be better spent doing something more constructive if we had sound money and everything wasn't financialised to fuck.

[JMD]

9 hours ago, montecristo said:

I will stick to buying the £20k on the 8th (monday) April.   My SIPP is also monthly. 

I like the fire and forget aspect to it all rather than spending time researching stocks and worrying about individual companies.

As it turns out April - statistically speaking - is a 'good' month (for US markets anyway). And July and November (perhaps reinvest your divis here?) are also good contenders. 

These are 20 year stats but I've seen similar results presented for the previous 40 years. It's certainly interesting... but perhaps this cycle will be different? 

https://tradethatswing.com/seasonal-patterns-of-the-stock-market/

 

[JMD]

10 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

My best telecom was a trade on TEF Brasil over the last year, used funds from a doubling in value in Guinness energy, sold all of that now only have some bought with profits  in TEF Spain, Verizon and BT, but those are mainly for the divis.

Yes rebalancing between sectors is a powerful strategy.

Of course a portfolio must contain un-corrolated asset classes in order to do this effectively. Luckily I think this thread already kinda proposes for such non-correlation to happen in the diverse cycle sectors it discusses and advocates for.

Edited March 31 by JMD

[Mandalorian]

7 hours ago, Jay said:

You are correct on all your points except one..I am not the average investor..yet maybe..

You are correct on all your points except one..I am not the average investor..yet maybe..

You'll be thinking, like everyone else, that you are an above average driver too.

[Mandalorian]

6 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

It does surprise me how little effort people put into their finances.

The ready buying of annuities from DC pots is financial lunacy but a whole industry is based upon it.

Quite

Why give away a sizeable sum of money when you could just do drawdown and keep the rest of the money invested yourself?

Well what if the pot runs dry?  But is it likely to?  They prey on this insecurity to get you to buy an annuity.

[Mandalorian]

5 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

Your not going to live forever so whats the point of managing your pension pot like you are.

Keep the pot.  Can pass it on to your nominee free of inheritance tax once you snuff it - as it doesn't form part of your estate.

Buy an annuity.  Pot disappears.

[Eventually Right]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

And the moral is........most people are utter fuckwits

 

 

Maybe they’ve seen the cocoa price chart…

[JMD]

7 hours ago, Harley said:

Indeed, a lot has change.  Everyone has an allocation until they get punched in the face! 

All this superficial talk of 60:40, so I can put 60% in Ecora for the equity slug can I?

So if 60:40 was up for discussion, wait until the real discussion starts......

Life is only easy for a Financial Services salesman!

As you say the 'investment world' of portfolio construction, risks, management, etc, has changed but the important discussions haven't even started. Mainly because the investment industry is self-serving and of course still making money... and so its customers can merely go hang!

However some commentators are trying to introduce new thinking, for example I recently heard Louis Vincent Gave (Gavekal) state that energy stocks were the new bonds. Sounds very simplistic, however I note that Gave is not a simple thinker, so I wonder what your thoughts Harley, and others on the thread, are to his suggestion?

[RickyBacker]

1 hour ago, Mandalorian said:

You'll be thinking, like everyone else, that you are an above average driver too.

As George Carlin said ... "Think of how stupid the average person is, and then realize that half of them are more stupid than that."

[desertorchid]

12 hours ago, Harley said:

I never understood 60:40.  OK equity:bonds, but after that, in more detail?  Meaningless. 

Not really, the idea always was that bond prices would generally rise in a stock market downturn, mitigating the risk. This trend was broken in 2009 due to ZIRP but has now been re-established. If there is a significant SM decline without a doubt rates would fall causing bond prices to inflate. 

[Lightscribe]

14 hours ago, Mandalorian said:

Stock picking is mostly a mug's game*.  Unless you have a special talent** (or luck, as it usually is).

It’s really not.

I was at a wetherspoons today for a friends mum’s funeral. Absolutely rammed. So much so several attending they’ve never seen a pub so packed since before the pandemic. Round of 4 drinks came to just over a tenner in zone 3 of London. Name another place in the UK you can do the same.

Now if I gave you the choice to invest in Wetherspoons, Fullers or Mitchell & Butlers knowing inflation and a recession was coming which would you pick?

Wetherspoons has doubled since the lows in this thread and you can see plainly see why, plus it may return to paying the ‘dreaded’ dividends in the future based on its earnings/profits, which seems to be going in the right direction. It’s really not that difficult.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68636250.amp

Edited March 31 by Lightscribe

[Lightscribe]

It’s almost as if monetary policy, liquidity, rates, inflation etc during a certain time frame (cycle) has some sort of impact on what sectors perform best.

[Lightscribe]

8 hours ago, wherebee said:

I agree in a world in which the market and businesses reflect reality.  

We don't have that now.  We have a economy in which huge proportions of business and investment activity are based on religion, not facts (climate change, ESG, mass immigration, etc).  For the first time in my life I feel that active investing is worthwhile because to win you don't need insider trading tips, or luck, you just need to discuss reality.  Reality such as 'oil, gas, and coal are NOT going away and will go up in price in the market due to undersupply and underinvestment, no matter what the greenie cunts say' - that means that you are buying assets which almost the entire market undervalues, sometimes because that have been TOLD by government not to invest in it!

Reality such as 'fiat money printing and energy policy means inflation is coming back' - this means you can arrange your debt to be less exposed, and buy inflation proof assets whilst cheap, whilst the market thinks it's a back to ZIRP world..

This is a once in a generation chance, in my view, to take the shirt of the establishment investors.

This. 👆

[sleepwello'nights]

8 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

And the moral is........most people are utter fuckwits

 

 

Looks to me that the random strangers made the right choice. Would he have let them keep the bar of silver if they had chosen it?

Besides silver doesn't taste as nice as chocolate, although the only time I've tasted Hershey's chocolate I didn't like the taste.  

[Harley]

3 hours ago, desertorchid said:

Not really, the idea always was that bond prices would generally rise in a stock market downturn, mitigating the risk. This trend was broken in 2009 due to ZIRP but has now been re-established. If there is a significant SM decline without a doubt rates would fall causing bond prices to inflate. 

I meant in more detail as what to hold, not the correlations.  

[Harley]

8 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

And the moral is........most people are utter fuckwits

 

 

Not so many eggs around this year towards the end.  Funny how you can never get a reduced one on the Sunday, something I obviously try to do.  I reckon, given the cocoa price, they're melting them down into bars to sell later.  Cocoa, the new gold!

Edited March 31 by Harley