Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[Harley]

3 hours ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

The factory workers think they are retiring on £30-£40k per year when they stop working though, almost no one works out or checks what's in the pot they hear 4% contribution, 6% employer and told its a good pension and believe it be lucky if they get £6-7k per year on drawdown. 

None of them know about the public sector in comparison either they think its the same as them.

And the other way round, I tell my public sector friends what pot I'll need in a private sector pension to equal their pension and they go all funny.  It's so big a number they don't even try the "but you earn more in the private sector" BS (btw, that's hasn't been true for a long time, and probably never was around here where private sector jobs are scarce).  It's called a "pyss take"!

Edited April 24 by Harley

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Mandalorian said:

Another growth share?

Fancy a wager ABRDN beats the S+P over 3 years? Dividends included of course  ,you win i send you £100 to put in any tracker you choose,i win you send me £100 to put in any Asian i choose.

[Mandalorian]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Cathie Wood bites the corporate carpet to waylay the pain.

It did all go a bit tech bubble back then in 21.

Mish sticks the boot in.

https://mishtalk.com/economics/ark-destroyed-more-wealth-than-any-asset-manager-over-the-previous-decade/

Investors have pulled a net $2.2 billion from the six actively managed exchange-traded funds at her ARK Investment Management this year, a withdrawal that dwarfs the outflows in all of 2023. Total assets in those funds have dropped 30% in less than four months to $11.1 billion—after peaking at $59 billion in early 2021, when ARK was the world’s largest active ETF manager.

Shares of Tesla, the largest holding, are down almost 45% this year and trading around $142. Wood has been buying the dip and reiterated her moonshot five-year price target of $2,000 in a CNBC appearance earlier this month.

By the end of last year, ARK funds had destroyed more wealth than any other asset manager over the previous decade, losing investors a collective $14.3 billion, according to Morningstar. ARK’s biggest inflows came in the months surrounding the innovation fund’s February 2021 peak, unfortunate timing for many investors.

 

Skill Assessment

It takes skill to be the worst. Not anyone can do it.

First you have to make wildly speculative bets. Then you need to develop a cult following right at the top. Then you have to make mistake after mistake on the way down.

Granted, she's a 'professional' but to those having a go at her, why not post your own funds (your whole, non edited share portfolio) so we can see how well you are doing...?

Quote

First you have to make wildly speculative bets. Then you need to develop a cult following right at the top. Then you have to make mistake after mistake on the way down.

Wise words...

[Mandalorian]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Fancy a wager ABRDN beats the S+P over 3 years? Dividends included of course  ,you win i send you £100 to put in any tracker you choose,i win you send me £100 to put in any Asian i choose.

Nope.  That's you choosing individual shares, which as I have said is a fool's errand.  I'm nothing if not consistent.

I am, however, willing to come back here in 3 years and compare the two.

 

But

Quote

i win you send me £100 to put in any Asian i choose.

Given your tales from the massage parlour, you could have phrased this better.....

[leonardratso]

I think the phrasing is succinct and apt.

Anyways £100 in 3 years wont even buy you a loaf of bread.

Edited April 24 by leonardratso

[CannonFodder]

 

Bit worrying if this catches hold, more talk about taxes on unrealised gains.

Truly, they will squeeze us till no blood is left.

https://watcher.guru/news/president-biden-calls-for-44-6-capital-gains-tax-rate

 

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

Nope.  That's you choosing individual shares, which as I have said is a fool's errand.  I'm nothing if not consistent.

I am, however, willing to come back here in 3 years and compare the two.

 

But

Given your tales from the massage parlour, you could have phrased this better.....

I phrased it right,any Asian i choose,not any Asian tracker  .Everyone on this thread will of outperformed the ARK funds since 20 by a country mile.

BATs outperformed those ARK funds by 42% since 20,,

[leonardratso]

musky fucks it up and the fanbois give him +13%, zuckerberg fucks it up and he gets shafted good style;

[DurhamBorn]

6 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

I think the phrasing is succinct and apt.

Anyways £100 in 3 years wont even buy you a loaf of bread.

Your right ,3 silver Brits .

[Mandalorian]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

BATs outperformed those ARK funds by 42% since 20,,

Ad that's saying something   Now do the S&P

[DurhamBorn]

4 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

Ad that's saying something   Now do the S&P

BATs has underperformed the S+P by around 34% in the same time.

[Funn3r]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Fancy a wager ABRDN beats the S+P over 3 years? Dividends included of course  ,you win i send you £100 to put in any tracker you choose,i win you send me £100 to put in any Asian i choose.

[JMD]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Cathie Wood bites the corporate carpet to waylay the pain.

It did all go a bit tech bubble back then in 21.

Mish sticks the boot in.

https://mishtalk.com/economics/ark-destroyed-more-wealth-than-any-asset-manager-over-the-previous-decade/

Investors have pulled a net $2.2 billion from the six actively managed exchange-traded funds at her ARK Investment Management this year, a withdrawal that dwarfs the outflows in all of 2023. Total assets in those funds have dropped 30% in less than four months to $11.1 billion—after peaking at $59 billion in early 2021, when ARK was the world’s largest active ETF manager.

Shares of Tesla, the largest holding, are down almost 45% this year and trading around $142. Wood has been buying the dip and reiterated her moonshot five-year price target of $2,000 in a CNBC appearance earlier this month.

By the end of last year, ARK funds had destroyed more wealth than any other asset manager over the previous decade, losing investors a collective $14.3 billion, according to Morningstar. ARK’s biggest inflows came in the months surrounding the innovation fund’s February 2021 peak, unfortunate timing for many investors.

 

Skill Assessment

It takes skill to be the worst. Not anyone can do it.

First you have to make wildly speculative bets. Then you need to develop a cult following right at the top. Then you have to make mistake after mistake on the way down.

Could be generous and say Cathie Wood merely timed the cycle wrong. However Wood is still buying Tesla and is predicting the shares will go to $2k!!!

So I'm afraid the market analysis is now in and their educated judgement is...

 

 

Edited April 24 by JMD

[Funn3r]

Posted in the "Covid 1984" by @MrXxxx

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/public-services-may-be-cut-to-get-uk-on-war-footing-sunak-admits/ar-AA1nB64j

Public services may be cut to get UK on ‘war footing’, Sunak admits

Wonder if this is cover for having a go at Bennies.

"Of course we don't want to slash benefits and public sector pensions but there's no choice if we are to defend against China/Russia/Iran/Rochdale"

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Fancy a wager ABRDN beats the S+P over 3 years? Dividends included of course  ,you win i send you £100 to put in any tracker you choose,i win you send me £100 to put in any Asian i choose.

Does "win" include S+P down -80% and ABRDN down -79% ?

I'm winning on VOD at the moment.

[Funn3r]

8 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Does "win" include S+P down -80% and ABRDN down -79% ?

I'm winning on VOD at the moment.

[Mandalorian]

13 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

Posted in the "Covid 1984" by @MrXxxx

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/public-services-may-be-cut-to-get-uk-on-war-footing-sunak-admits/ar-AA1nB64j

Public services may be cut to get UK on ‘war footing’, Sunak admits

Wonder if this is cover for having a go at Bennies.
 

Don't be daft.  They'll abolish RNHS before they stop paying lazy arses to hang about all day.

[Shamone]

8 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

 

We bought a knackered 300 year old house in 2021 with no survey. The mortgage company wasn't bothered as the LTV was  low.

We know what we are doing though....unlike most home buyers I suppose.

 

I preferred the one with the mummy.

[wherebee]

4 hours ago, Mandalorian said:

Despite what the doom monkeys on this thread say:  Never bet against the United States.

yeah, that's very true.

except, of course, all the times they have fucked up, lost, been embarrassed, etc.  

[sancho panza]

[sancho panza]

another 'no sh1t sherlock' moment from the 'white' team.

a fine example of how 'tax the rich' ends in people leaving,skill shortages and lower tax take

it's not jsut the people leaving,it's the people not coming.

 

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/more-1-000-higher-rate-153622635.html

More than 1,000 higher rate taxpayers fled Scotland to the rest of the UK after Nicola Sturgeon’s government introduced two more income tax bands, a Treasury analysis has estimated.

A paper by UK government economists found the changes introduced in 2018-19 led to 1,030 higher earners moving south, costing Scotland £61 million in tax receipts that year.

The Treasury analysis found “no reliable evidence of a change in net cross-border migration” for those paying the new 19 per cent starter rate, on income between £11,850 and £13,850, or the new 21 per cent intermediate rate that applied between £24,000 and £43,430.

For those on the highest salaries, earning more than £500,000, the analysis also found a “statistically significant fall in in-migration in 2018 to 2019.”

The report said this was “consistent with the assumption that the highest earning individuals in  the UK chose not to move to Scotland to avoid the higher tax burden.”

Changes were detected for those paying the increased 41p higher rate – 1p more than south of the border – which applied to income between £43,430 and £150,000.

For those on the highest salaries, earning more than £500,000, the analysis also found a “statistically significant fall in in-migration in 2018 to 2019.”

The report said this was “consistent with the assumption that the highest earning individuals in  the UK chose not to move to Scotland to avoid the higher tax burden.”

Partly thanks to the lower salary threshold, around 500,000 Scots are liable to pay the higher rate.

The Treasury analysis estimated there was a “loss” to Scotland in 2018-19 of 60 workers who earned more than £500,000 and would have been liable to pay the 46p top rate that applied that year. Their departure cost the Scottish Government £38 million in lost tax revenue.

Edited April 24 by sancho panza

[TNS]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

And the other way round, I tell my public sector friends what pot I'll need in a private sector pension to equal their pension and they go all funny.  It's so big a number they don't even try the "but you earn more in the private sector" BS (btw, that's hasn't been true for a long time, and probably never was around here where private sector jobs are scarce).  It's called a "pyss take"!

Got a mate that I asked about contributions he makes to his DC scheme, something like 100 a month and he thinks that’ll be enough. It’s amazing how little people look into it.

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, TNS said:

Got a mate that I asked about contributions he makes to his DC scheme, something like 100 a month and he thinks that’ll be enough. It’s amazing how little people look into it.

He’s probably right without even knowing it. 
Just think of all the migration to offset the population decline and the growing proportion of generational benefit families by then compounded. 

The majority of the country with have nothing (or minimal NEST 16hr week tax credit) in their pensions. 

Make no mistake that it will be those that have prepared will be the ones led to the sacrificial slaughter (eg UBI, and CBDCs)

[Lightscribe]

3 hours ago, JMD said:

Could be generous and say Cathie Wood merely timed the cycle wrong. However Wood is still buying Tesla and is predicting the shares will go to $2k!!!

So I'm afraid the market analysis is now in and their educated judgement is...

 

 

Nope, Cathie Wood was placed on a pedestal in today’s wokerati world a few years back, but she’s just shit. Really shit.

Lost investors absolute fuckloads of billions. Her funds consist of 2021 meme stocks that spiked in covid lockdown and she keeps doubling down regardless.

The nerve of one of my colleagues who even said back in 2021 that she was ‘right’ over my portfolio loaded up with PMs, oil and baccy.

Imagine being a ‘tech’ fund manager and selling Nvidia at its lowest before the run and piling into Tesla at its highest. It’s not just that, she’s now a counter indicator like Jim Cramer.

I would forgive tin foiled hatted types who believe she’s being paid by Blackrock or someone to destruct wealth.

Edited April 25 by Lightscribe

[Formerly]

8 hours ago, Harley said:

And the other way round, I tell my public sector friends what pot I'll need in a private sector pension to equal their pension and they go all funny.  It's so big a number they don't even try the "but you earn more in the private sector" BS (btw, that's hasn't been true for a long time, and probably never was around here where private sector jobs are scarce).  It's called a "pyss take"!

Until recently it was impossible to save enough into a DC pension to buy an annuity equivalent to upper public sector pensions. A pot cap of around £1m and annuity rates in the low single digit percentages, meant linked incomes of £50k were about the absolute maximum. This is taking the pension from SRA. Forget retiring early or spouse benefits. The difference between PS pensions and buying your own is incredible.