Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[Harley]

9 hours ago, Mandalorian said:

I've said for years.  NOBODY should receive benefits (or charity handouts as I prefer to call them) as cash.

You should get an Aldi voucher (value set by some kind of ration of basic food, carefully calorie/nutrition counted etc) and a gas/water/electricity voucher.  And that's your lot.

'But they might sell them for cash for less than the voucher is worth.'  So what?  That's their stupid problem,

The sooner we get those CBDCs in the better!  What a great place to start.  A "soft" PR campaign and a free burger and chips (aka "NY Mayor Covid Burger") or whatever and off we go.  Apparently washing machine soap powder is the currency of choice in the US.  But as you say, whatever.

[Harley]

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

The union body estimates that the average UK worker would be £10,400 a year better off if real wages had grown at their pre-crisis trend – the equivalent of £200 a week.

Indeed.  Imagine what it's like for the rest of us!

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Pip321 said:

 

Vouchers for bennies….we all think that’s a good idea. Careful though…..this is exactly how those “conspiracy theorists” said it starts. A worry because the conspiracy theorists keep being proved right. 

First those we don’t like (bennies, PIP etc) are issued vouchers and everyone is onboard….including myself by the way, makes complete sense.

Then they can issue a digital type currency for these people so they can’t save up money but effectively get what they need with an expiry date and/or money with a specific usage. Again we all agree it’s a good idea.

Then as the digital currency becomes integrated it’s introduced across the board with no controls. Normally under the guise that it works, stops money laundering and terrorist funding etc….now we are a bit suspicious but the BBC say it’s good so the populous except it.

Then the controls. Petrol, meat, energy, ciggies, beer, etc etc

Don't get me wrong I have always thought bennies should be services/food items/housing and not money……I just question their motives. One thing I know is any political decision is never, never ever for the greater good. 

They could do this now without a CBDC but with a debit card like they already do elsewhere.  They could even have done this then transition to a CBDC for an "improvement" and boiled frog.

[Harley]

55 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I got Northumbrian Water out to do the ones outside my house and the stop cock etc,its was full of congealed stones,sand etc.I could of done it myself,but i thought its their job,i said why dont you have someone who checks them every few years.He said they cant be arsed.Iv got the keys to turn them all off etc,handy if you get a flood between your stockcock and the road.I also made them put my water meter in my house,not outside,lf you have it outside and have a small leak after it you could be paying more for years and never know.

The pressure regulating valves fitted to the meters frequently get blocked around here.  Last bloke took it off to save the hassle.  I later feared the pressure was too high but another bloke came round and said it was fine, indeed lower than the valley people.  My neighbour did the same but had leaks due to old plumbing.

[Harley]

Last flash post....saved the best for last....+£50k pa tax free?

But " For UK financial advice professionals only", not the rest of you thick shites who could never get the complexities involved....Fair enough though as a nicer way of saying "not advice, blah, blah,........."!

https://www.mandg.com/wealth/adviser-services/tech-matters/investments-and-taxation/income-tax-planning/planning-for-50k

Bye!

Edited April 29 by Harley

[belfastchild]

15 minutes ago, Harley said:

They could do this now without a CBDC but with a debit card like they already do elsewhere.  They could even have done this then transition to a CBDC for an "improvement" and boiled frog.

Ive posted before about the NI back from covid local business card issued over here to every adult with 100 quid on it. (thats a lot in one sentence!).
Meant to be spent in local businesses. Tesco etc complained. Amazon complained. Tesco got the ok so people went in and bought amazon vouchers ffs!
It was per person, it was limited to certain stores. Cant see why it couldnt be limited to certain things. Took ages to roll out and didnt work properly in place (it was a government run scheme after all).

During the spend time (they were time limited) I went to the pub to watch a european game and at kicking out time the barmaid asked which one of the cards behind the bar was mine. I was paying cash, didnt realise they also were classified as a local business (why wouldnt they!).

[AWW]

9 hours ago, Mandalorian said:

I've said for years.  NOBODY should receive benefits (or charity handouts as I prefer to call them) as cash.

You should get an Aldi voucher (value set by some kind of ration of basic food, carefully calorie/nutrition counted etc) and a gas/water/electricity voucher.  And that's your lot.

'But they might sell them for cash for less than the voucher is worth.'  So what?  That's their stupid problem,

We used to get school uniform vouchers back in the 90s. No idea if they are still a thing. Not sure why school uniform was singled out for the voucher treatment.

Edited April 29 by AWW
double post

[Funn3r]

33 minutes ago, AWW said:

We used to get school uniform vouchers back in the 90s. No idea if they are still a thing. Not sure why school uniform was singled out for the voucher treatment.

I went to a school which insisted on a uniform but no way we could afford to spend the money. Parents tried to dress me as smart as they could but apart from we could afford the tie I didn't have the rest of the officially-endorsed "2x real cost" stuff and the school made my life absolute hell. You wouldn't think a few clothing details mattered but it did. Hence the vouchers.

Couldn't have been just me; I suppose there must have been pressure on the schools to drop the uniform but they wanted to keep it so lobbied for the taxpayer to fund it.

[Funn3r]

2 hours ago, feed said:

The federal minimum wage in the United States is $7.25 per hour
Wendy's pays $12.52 an hour on average.
The average McDonald's salary in the United States is $25,163 per year.

This kind of hyperbole saying that US burger flippers are better paid than a UK nurse is so ridicules it damages any real discussion on wage suppression in the UK.    
 

Thing is though the individual states can set their own higher minimum wage values. California recently set minimum 20 USD/hr for fast food workers and I saw some recent photos of job ads for 23.50 USD/hr starting wage in an In-and-Out-Burger. Prices shot up to accommodate the rise.

I'm more or less in favour of a minimum wage but it's true there are consequences.

Now that employees are getting decently paid I hope that at least kills off their godawful compulsory tipping system.

Edited April 29 by Funn3r
added tipping

[leonardratso]

ill give you an in and out burger.

It will mainly consist of bran flakes.

[DoINeedOne]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Last flash post....saved the best for last....+£50k pa tax free?

But " For UK financial advice professionals only", not the rest of you thick shites who could never get the complexities involved....Fair enough though as a nicer way of saying "not advice, blah, blah,........."!

https://www.mandg.com/wealth/adviser-services/tech-matters/investments-and-taxation/income-tax-planning/planning-for-50k

Bye!

The fact we have to do all these kinds of things to lower our tax bill, having a limited company was ideal then the dividend tax rates fucked that up

I've been speaking with a group of people who sell mostly on eBay and are trying to limit growth to avoid VAT registration and the ones who are VAT-registered mentioned they need to fly past the threshold to make the extra accounting and adding VAT to prices worth it

Reminds me of this chart

 

Then similar old chart French companies report only having 49 employees because 50+ you now have various legal obligations in terms of social dialogue, profit sharing and more accounting 

BUT NOW On 29 November 2023, the French government passed the Profit-Sharing Act requiring companies with 11 to 49 employees to implement a profit-sharing scheme effective from 1 January 2025.

Companies with 50 or more employees have required compulsory profit-sharing since 2020. The new five-year trial mandate applies to companies that meet all three of the characteristics below:

More and more rules people adapt rather than focusing on growing 

Edited April 29 by DoINeedOne

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

morning all!

fookinghell PFC has collasped down 32% this morning, @MrXxxx honesly i didn't buy any a while back...though looking to load up NOW!

i expect @HousePriceMania will be reaching for the SICK BUCKET when he sees this...

Petrofac – shares suspended as financial pressure mounts!

[HousePriceMania]

1 minute ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

morning all!

fookinghell PFC has collasped down 32% this morning, @MrXxxx honesly i didn't buy any a while back...though looking to load up NOW!

i expect @HousePriceMania will be reaching for the SICK BUCKET when he sees this...

Petrofac – shares suspended as financial pressure mounts!

Yeah, petrofac is not my best investment.  Must be in serious trouble. Not worth selling.

 

[JREWING]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I got Northumbrian Water out to do the ones outside my house and the stop cock etc,its was full of congealed stones,sand etc.I could of done it myself,but i thought its their job,i said why dont you have someone who checks them every few years.He said they cant be arsed.Iv got the keys to turn them all off etc,handy if you get a flood between your stockcock and the road.I also made them put my water meter in my house,not outside,lf you have it outside and have a small leak after it you could be paying more for years and never know.

Do you think it's worth having a water meter in the property DB?

How did you get them to take the outside meter away and fit one inside your home? Did they kick up a fuss?

Was your outside meter on the public footpath under a round plastic cover. Do you think they might become compulsory any time soon.

I'm finding more and more rentals have a water meter fitted and any leaks in the house cause inflated bills. Whereas in the past shit quality rentals with leaking taps and cisterns did not matter as most of these properties had no water meters.

 

[desertorchid]

2 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Yeah, petrofac is not my best investment.  Must be in serious trouble. Not worth selling.

 

As far as I can work out they have said they cant pay bondholders, which in every other case study I have seen means equity holders are toast. It is likely the bond holders will insist of an equity swap (which they probably dont even want) making existing petrofac shares very very diluted

[MrXxxx]

6 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

morning all!

fookinghell PFC has collasped down 32% this morning, @MrXxxx honesly i didn't buy any a while back...though looking to load up NOW!

i expect @HousePriceMania will be reaching for the SICK BUCKET when he sees this...

Petrofac – shares suspended as financial pressure mounts!

From Sharecast News -

Petrofac tumbled on Monday as it announced a delay to the publication of its full-year results and said it may have to convert a significant proportion of its existing debt to equity.

The company said it expects a short delay in issuing its 2023 results, which it now expects to publish by 31 May 2024.

It also said that as part of its ongoing financial restructuring, an ad-hoc group of senior secured noteholders have made a proposal to provide further credit of up to $300m, comprising $200m of new funds and $100m of credit support to help secure performance guarantees for certain of its existing contracts.

This non-binding proposal is dependent upon - among other things - Petrofac securing these performance guarantees, and would require the conversion of a significant proportion of the group's existing debt to equity.

Petrofac said it's in active discussions with credit providers to obtain the required guarantees, which would release more than $200m of collateral and retentions, and will provide an update on the outcome of those discussions "as appropriate".

The company also provided an update on trading. Back in December, it had highlighted a risk in relation to the timing of the negotiations on the Thai Oil Clean Fuels project. It said that it and its joint venture partners remain engaged with its client in relation to the reimbursement of additional project costs. "At the time of reporting the full year 2023 results, management does not expect to have progressed discussions sufficiently to recognise the expected outcome of the negotiations in its accounts," it said. As a result, it expects to recognise an incremental loss in its E&C division of about $130m for 2023.

In addition, the Asset Solutions business has incurred additional costs on one of its engineering, procurement, construction, and commissioning (EPCC) contracts, and expects to report an EBIT for 2023 which could be up to $15m to $20m lower than previously guided, depending on the outcome of negotiations.

"The group's financial performance for the year ended 31 December 2023 is otherwise expected to be broadly in line with the trading Update of 20 December 2023," it said.

 

 

...its cheap for a reason!...and how much of that 15p share will you have left after the Debt to Equity deal?...Caveat emptor!
 

[DoINeedOne]

[Jesus Wept]

On 25/04/2024 at 17:58, AWW said:

There has been some chatter on the thread about holding CSH2 (some here, @Jesus Wept IIRC, having a significant holding) as it's a "money market fund" and perhaps the ticker leads people to believe that it is similar to holding cash.

I looked into CSH2 and found that it's not a money market fund - it is a swap fund.  Typically it will track SONIA and the price chart looks anything but volatile, but it is riskier than a MM fund or cash. Whether the additional 1% return on top of receiving interest for holding cash in your SIPP is worth that small risk is obviously up to the buyer.

Some good info @AWW

Here is some more info on CSH2 - it has returned 5.3% in the last year. Once you take out fees and charges etc it is 4.6% net.

Volatility is low.

There is about £600m in the fund.

 

[Jesus Wept]

“I looked into CSH2 and found that it's not a money market fund - it is a swap fund.  Typically it will track SONIA and the price chart looks anything but volatile, but it is riskier than a MM fund or cash. Whether the additional 1% return on top of receiving interest for holding cash in your SIPP is worth that small risk is obviously up to the buyer” .

@AWW

If there was a complete market meltdown and massive problems it looks like you could lose a maximum of 10% of your investment ? 
 

 

[sancho panza]

9 hours ago, tank said:

You could flip burgers full time in most US states and make more than a junior doctor or nurse in the UK and the same goes for most skilled occupations.

No surprises that a semi skilled job like driving a lorry or bus in the US now pays more than a typical consultant doctor in the UK.

The UK is barely a first world country in terms of its per capita living standards these days and the situation is not going to improve.

new min wage at £11.44=>37.5x52x11.44=£22,308 per annum

Junior Docs are circa Bnad 5 at the start.plus unsocial.

as ever,the pay rate isn't bad for starting out but the problem comes when they're asked to pay tax for the bennies/ukraine war/NHS etc and then they have to pay inflated rents for-insert reason-.

STnadard of living for preofessionals in thsi country is poor as many have said.

Solicitors the same,lot of stress,and they're £50k per annum is buying increasingly less.

Saw a mate who's an A&E consultant and he was saying he jsut doesnt see the point in overtime these days as he sees so little of it.

big issue here isnt so much teh salaries but the govt refusing to cut spending imho/shut the borders/limit retnal demadn imho

https://www.healthcareers.nhs.uk/explore-roles/doctors/pay-doctors

3 hours ago, Pip321 said:

 

Vouchers for bennies….we all think that’s a good idea. Careful though…..this is exactly how those “conspiracy theorists” said it starts. A worry because the conspiracy theorists keep being proved right. 

First those we don’t like (bennies, PIP etc) are issued vouchers and everyone is onboard….including myself by the way, makes complete sense.

Then they can issue a digital type currency for these people so they can’t save up money but effectively get what they need with an expiry date and/or money with a specific usage. Again we all agree it’s a good idea.

Then as the digital currency becomes integrated it’s introduced across the board with no controls. Normally under the guise that it works, stops money laundering and terrorist funding etc….now we are a bit suspicious but the BBC say it’s good so the populous except it.

Then the controls. Petrol, meat, energy, ciggies, beer, etc etc

Don't get me wrong I have always thought bennies should be services/food items/housing and not money……I just question their motives. One thing I know is any political decision is never, never ever for the greater good. 

US food stamps are placed on a debit card you can use at stores.Intersting tosee admin coming in at 5% of the budget

#

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

14 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

..............................

...its cheap for a reason!...and how much of that 15p share will you have left after the Debt to Equity deal?...Caveat emptor!
 

yep agree, i traded it once and did ok, don't want to give that moolah profit back, i don't trust the dude that started this company even though he has a huge holding, he reminds me of blackman ****

 

I also remember the oil guy that used to post on here a lot, he worked for PFC, and said it was the WORST firm he ever worked for in that sector...

[sancho panza]

1st time sedy has been above 1200 since we've owend it

yen hitting 35 yr low vs USD-'the times they are a changin'

 

[JMD]

14 hours ago, Errol said:

It's a gold derivative, effectively. In the event of a weekend 'great reset' or gold revaluation I would have zero confidence in it. It isn't gold. It's a paper instrument referencing some gold which may or may not be available to you or priced correctly when you actually need it to be.

Most gold ETF prospectuses are misleading because although they talk about being 'gold backed', they are not 100% backed if for example the ETF and/or their gold custodian (JP Morgan, etc) use paper certificate mechanisms like 'limited recourse certificates'. I'm not an expert but i believe those are complex debt contracts (not derivatives, but are just as financially opaque).

...As a rule of thumb - dangerous I know! - low charges, of say 0.15%, usually indicate that the ETF is not 100% backed. Whereas for example Sprott/Wisdom Tree charge approx. 0.5%, and I believe both those providers offer 100% backed ETFs.

Edited April 29 by JMD

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, JREWING said:

Do you think it's worth having a water meter in the property DB?

How did you get them to take the outside meter away and fit one inside your home? Did they kick up a fuss?

Was your outside meter on the public footpath under a round plastic cover. Do you think they might become compulsory any time soon.

I'm finding more and more rentals have a water meter fitted and any leaks in the house cause inflated bills. Whereas in the past shit quality rentals with leaking taps and cisterns did not matter as most of these properties had no water meters.

 

I pay £22 a month instead of £60 if un-metered.Iv got two huge tanks i got off a gypo in the garage i fill off the downpipes and the water in them does my garden all year.I just said i wanted it in the house,no problem.

[DurhamBorn]

10 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

1st time sedy has been above 1200 since we've owend it

yen hitting 35 yr low vs USD-'the times they are a changin'

 

SEDY outperformed S+P 500 by 2% over 6 months,equal over 12 months and the Fed interest rate cycle has not turned lower yet.SEDY is my 2nd biggest holding so very very happy with it.