Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[SpectrumFX]

3 hours ago, feed said:

The federal minimum wage in the United States is $7.25 per hour
Wendy's pays $12.52 an hour on average.
The average McDonald's salary in the United States is $25,163 per year.

This kind of hyperbole saying that US burger flippers are better paid than a UK nurse is so ridicules it damages any real discussion on wage suppression in the UK.    
 

Would those figures included tips?

I probably wouldn't tip in a McDonald's, and don't expect many others would either, but I'd expect staff in Wendy's to be getting tips.

[Pip321]

1 hour ago, JREWING said:

Do you think it's worth having a water meter in the property DB?

How did you get them to take the outside meter away and fit one inside your home? Did they kick up a fuss?

Was your outside meter on the public footpath under a round plastic cover. Do you think they might become compulsory any time soon.

I'm finding more and more rentals have a water meter fitted and any leaks in the house cause inflated bills. Whereas in the past shit quality rentals with leaking taps and cisterns did not matter as most of these properties had no water meters.

 

One of the reasons rentals have water meters is because many of the water companies now charge on empty properties. Like rates....all changed over the past 5 years. 

So before the LL paid would have paid 'nil' for a rated property with no meter whilst empty....but a metered property might get a small charge. 

Now (in North Yorkshire) without a meter you pay the £60/70 a month for non metered houses. However with a meter it is more like £5/10 standing monthly charge. 

So all my rentals are now on water meters....tenants prefer it and I now prefer it too. 

[Axeman123]

16 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

SEDY outperformed S+P 500 by 2% over 6 months,equal over 12 months and the Fed interest rate cycle has not turned lower yet.SEDY is my 2nd biggest holding so very very happy with it.

If the miners run here I may be looking to get some SEDY, that chart and the macro implies to me it is still very early in SEDYs likely move up. Any thoughts on someone potentially entering at around the current price?

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Yeah, petrofac is not my best investment.  Must be in serious trouble. Not worth selling.

 

if you want an oil company in a shitty third world banana republic, WOODSIDE down here in Oz is posting about a 9% divvie and (personal view) will go mental once Aussie can't turn on the aircon due to green policies hitting home and the politicians have to free the local oil and gas companies.

I've got a fair whack in; It's a 25 year play from me - Australian oil producers are going to be incredibly important to the US and western war machine for future needs.

[HousePriceMania]

18 minutes ago, wherebee said:

if you want an oil company in a shitty third world banana republic, WOODSIDE down here in Oz is posting about a 9% divvie and (personal view) will go mental once Aussie can't turn on the aircon due to green policies hitting home and the politicians have to free the local oil and gas companies.

I've got a fair whack in; It's a 25 year play from me - Australian oil producers are going to be incredibly important to the US and western war machine for future needs.

Thanks, I'll have a look.

[JMD]

37 minutes ago, wherebee said:

if you want an oil company in a shitty third world banana republic, WOODSIDE down here in Oz is posting about a 9% divvie and (personal view) will go mental once Aussie can't turn on the aircon due to green policies hitting home and the politicians have to free the local oil and gas companies.

I've got a fair whack in; It's a 25 year play from me - Australian oil producers are going to be incredibly important to the US and western war machine for future needs.

Yes agreed, I also own some. Did Woodside buy BHPs LNG assets? I believe it was looking to buy them couple years back, and even before that potential deal Woodside was already producing 6% of global LNG.

Not asking for advise of course, but can I ask if there are any other Aussie oilies that you hold for the long term?

Edited April 29 by JMD

[Sidd]

On 26/04/2024 at 13:02, Long time lurking said:

I always new the control they had over the media ,but i was always in the same boat as you regarding how they could do it to the extent that was claimed 

I think the below is just a small section of a larger warren 

 

I dont think we give enough emphasis to how important something such as this is. Essentially because Israeli's are White European we the public probably dont see it is a threat as we would if the Chinese were managing Hinkley point or if the Iranian's or Indian's etc would own a piece of critical UK infrastructure. Also possibly because its such a big deal and such absolute control, we feel it's something we cant control or influence (e.g. by voting in the ballot box) so we give up trying to discuss it in more detail or challenge it. How do you fight an invisible enemy etc etc..

 

I didn't think much of all the 'conspiracy theories' stating the Israeli or Zion ists owning the world and pulling the strings of all world leaders, but I now think there is much truth in it as I have seen countless things around it in the last 6 months. It reminds me very much of how many people brushed Covid 19 as a hoax or setup and were ridiculed for challenging anything coming out of the establishment around lockdown's and vaccines etc.

 

I also wonder how much something like this impacts the overall Macro picture / direction, especially if the 'free market' is actually just a controlled market which is setup to appear free. All food for thought.. and beneath the surface very scary..

[Plan-b]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/apr/29/humza-yousaf-scotland-first-minister-latest-news-updates-politics-live

[DoINeedOne]

9 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/apr/29/humza-yousaf-scotland-first-minister-latest-news-updates-politics-live

What white person is getting the blame

[leonardratso]

13 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

What white person is getting the blame

actually they are green.

[Pip321]

28 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/apr/29/humza-yousaf-scotland-first-minister-latest-news-updates-politics-live

His P45…..White. 

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

If the miners run here I may be looking to get some SEDY, that chart and the macro implies to me it is still very early in SEDYs likely move up. Any thoughts on someone potentially entering at around the current price?

I added some more last week with some proceeds from DH Smith sale a few weeks back.I think 50% up from here plus divs over the next 4 or 5 years so maybe a 17%pa return,perhaps more.I bought a lot below £11 though.SEDY is likely a poor investment 10 years out of 15,the macro said these were the good 5 coming up,so far so good.

[AWW]

3 hours ago, Jesus Wept said:

Some good info @AWW

Here is some more info on CSH2 - it has returned 5.3% in the last year. Once you take out fees and charges etc it is 4.6% net.

Volatility is low.

There is about £600m in the fund.

 

The question is, who are the counterparties to their swaps?

[Long time lurking]

1 hour ago, Sidd said:

o we give up trying to discuss it in more detail or challenge it. How do you fight an invisible enemy etc etc..

 

Well that`s what i find interesting now ,they are no longer in the shadows the spotlight is on them 

I posted this in the war and conflict section ,considering the channel ,you have to ask the question why  

 

I might be wrong and there's actually another agenda for this happening, but to me it looks like the light is being shone on them deliberately,i have seen a few Piers Morgan interviews where he gets torn apart in everyone yet he uses the exact same argument every time ,something don`t smell right

[BurntBread]

This doesn't add anything to the discussion, but if people want some light listening during a lull in the thread, here is the latest "Palisades Gold Radio" podcast, with Bob Moriarty:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ML_xEzuVRf4

I have no idea who he is, other than being billed as the owner of "321Gold", and having a cool name. However, the reason I'm posting is that he sounds exactly like Grampa Simpson, yet actually seems pretty sharp. In fact, scratch that ... the only reason I say he seems sharp is that he's come to pretty much the same conclusions to me on a lot of topics which seem to trip up other people. Of course, the other way of looking at it is that perhaps I have turned into Grampa Simpson while I wasn't looking.

[VeryMeanReversion]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I pay £22 a month instead of £60 if un-metered.Iv got two huge tanks i got off a gypo in the garage 

Unusual to keep a gypo in the garage. 

I didn't realise cross-market work actually meant stolen property.

[Inigo]

5 hours ago, Funn3r said:

Thing is though the individual states can set their own higher minimum wage values. California recently set minimum 20 USD/hr for fast food workers and I saw some recent photos of job ads for 23.50 USD/hr starting wage in an In-and-Out-Burger. Prices shot up to accommodate the rise.

I'm more or less in favour of a minimum wage but it's true there are consequences.

Now that employees are getting decently paid I hope that at least kills off their godawful compulsory tipping system.

New York (and presumably some other states) have a credit system for "tipped food service workers" built in to their minimum wage to ensure that the shit system continues.

https://dol.ny.gov/minimum-wage-0

[Harley]

5 hours ago, Jesus Wept said:

Some good info @AWW

Here is some more info on CSH2 - it has returned 5.3% in the last year. Once you take out fees and charges etc it is 4.6% net.

Volatility is low.

There is about £600m in the fund.

 

Cheers.  We use it and others to diversify cash balances.  Isn't the 5.3% after charges as that's the share price move (it being an accumulation fund)?

Edited April 29 by Harley

[Harley]

4 hours ago, SpectrumFX said:

Would those figures included tips?

I probably wouldn't tip in a McDonald's, and don't expect many others would either, but I'd expect staff in Wendy's to be getting tips.

The Americans on podcasts are saying tips are now expected!

[SpectrumFX]

2 minutes ago, Harley said:

The Americans on podcasts are saying tips are now expected!

It's been 20 years since I was there, but anywhere where there was table service you were supposed to tip, and bar staff too, even if you were sat ordering at the bar.

It's a strange system to step into for British people, but you soon get used to it, and by God you get far better service there than here.

[Funn3r]

24 minutes ago, Inigo said:

New York (and presumably some other states) have a credit system for "tipped food service workers" built in to their minimum wage to ensure that the shit system continues.

https://dol.ny.gov/minimum-wage-0

Stupid fuckers can't even spell. I lived in NY state for a while so looked at the relevant bit for where I was

$10.00 Cash Wage
$5.00 Top Credit

[Harley]

4 hours ago, wherebee said:

if you want an oil company in a shitty third world banana republic, WOODSIDE down here in Oz is posting about a 9% divvie and (personal view) will go mental once Aussie can't turn on the aircon due to green policies hitting home and the politicians have to free the local oil and gas companies.

I've got a fair whack in; It's a 25 year play from me - Australian oil producers are going to be incredibly important to the US and western war machine for future needs.

An old favourite of ours.  Currently waiting for a bottom.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I added some more last week with some proceeds from DH Smith sale a few weeks back.I think 50% up from here plus divs over the next 4 or 5 years so maybe a 17%pa return,perhaps more.I bought a lot below £11 though.SEDY is likely a poor investment 10 years out of 15,the macro said these were the good 5 coming up,so far so good.

It's a bold play in that it's historic performance is very different from it's cohort.  Past performance was rubbish (absolutely and relatively) but it's outperforming atm.  Must be a few key constituents.  Worthy of a comparative deep dive.

[ThoughtCriminal]

@Cattle Prod

What do you make of this?

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

32 minutes ago, Harley said:

It's a bold play in that it's historic performance is very different from it's cohort.  Past performance was rubbish (absolutely and relatively) but it's outperforming atm.  Must be a few key constituents.  Worthy of a comparative deep dive.

If i could i would probably own 15 or so of the stocks in there direct and not bother,but i cannot access most of them.I think its problem is it sells winners and buys falling knives over and over BUT that is turned on its head when the macro lifts all the boats.Its a very easy way for UK retail investors to access EM inflation loving stocks as well without over thinking it.Likely needs the dollar to turn to advance much from here below £11 was the easy buying area.