Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Errol]

The bullion dealers I look at are completely sold out of all silver bars. Shockingly high levels of demand.

[Errol]

[Castlevania]

32 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Child star pushed by her parents ->  rebellion/shave hair off and start dry humping things on stage etc etc

I dunno. I have a soft spot for her. She can most definitely sing. 

[leonardratso]

7 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

I dunno. I have a soft spot for her. She can most definitely sing. 

dont you mean a hard spot.

[Option5]

7 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

I dunno. I have a soft spot for her. She can most definitely sing. 

I have "Everytime" as my morning alarm ringtone.

[Castlevania]

3 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

dont you mean a hard spot.

Nah. She’s quite “boyish” in her looks.

[leonardratso]

3 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Nah. She’s quite “boyish” in her looks.

is that  a problem?

[Castlevania]

I’m a big fan of the Backyard Sessions she did almost 10 years ago.

Edit: Plus her in an absolute classic tune

 

[Castlevania]

21 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

is that  a problem?

Not if I was in her presence. However in the real world there are people to “think about” who are a little more lady like.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Running numbers and i think core inflation will touch multi decade high of 3% at the start of this cycle ,so thats over 25 years high...

 

Yeah it's going to shock a lot of folks, especially so when mass UNEMPLOYMENT hits...

 

Do YOU or anyone here remember 'Scrimpers' with Ray Brookes back in the day ...circa 1994?!

 

Brilliant programme for "HARD TIMES"... I remember a single mum in one program who had furnished her entire house out of things she'd found in skips!

 

Now would be a good time to email channel 4 and ask them to rerun the 'Scrimpers' series - maybe it would have more appeal now for not just economic but also green issues? greta

 

AnyHOO...Searching on YT, and found a couple of old series ENJOY

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Chewing Grass]

Well, just checked my money purchase pension scheme and its down 3% exactly from the day lovely Joe and the glorious Democrats and their Wall St / MSM backers won the US election.

[Clueless Imbecile]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Normal move from Fed business cycle printing is around 2% gain in core inflation.Looking at liquidity its likely we will get 3%+ so touching or above 3% is very likely for the first stage.

Hi DurhamBorn.

I've seen it written that the Fed only controls the interest rate "at the short end", presumably by buying short-term bonds to drive the price up and the yield down. Apparently the market controls the long term interest rate (maybe 20 & 30 year bond yields).

What is to stop the Fed from simply printing enough dollars (even if it is trillions) to buy enough long term bonds to drive the price up and the yield down and thereby control the interest rate at the long end?

The only answer I can think of is that maybe there are so many long term bonds in existence that the amount of dollars that would need to be printed (or "QE'd" into existence) to buy enough of them to drive the interest rate down would be such that the side effects would be worse than the benefits of doing it (currency collapse, maybe).

Just wondering what your opinion is on this?

 

Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

 

[Castlevania]

9 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

Yeah it's going to shock a lot of folks, especially so when mass UNEMPLOYMENT hits...

 

Do YOU or anyone here remember 'Scrimpers' with Ray Brookes back in the day ...circa 1994?!

 

Brilliant programme for "HARD TIMES"... I remember a single mum in one program who had furnished her entire house out of things she'd found in skips!

 

Now would be a good time to email channel 4 and ask them to rerun the 'Scrimpers' series - maybe it would have more appeal now for not just economic but also green issues? greta

 

AnyHOO...Searching on YT, and found a couple of old series ENJOY

 

 

 

 

 

 

There’s a programme on something called TLC which inspired this thread in Off Topic. Something about a millionaire eating cat food because it’s $0.20 a tin cheaper than tinned fish?

Anyhow it might help with some ideas to future proof oneself.

 

[Castlevania]

10 minutes ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

Hi DurhamBorn.

I've seen it written that the Fed only controls the interest rate "at the short end", presumably by buying short-term bonds to drive the price up and the yield down. Apparently the market controls the long term interest rate (maybe 20 & 30 year bond yields).

What is to stop the Fed from simply printing enough dollars (even if it is trillions) to buy enough long term bonds to drive the price up and the yield down and thereby control the interest rate at the long end?

The only answer I can think of is that maybe there are so many long term bonds in existence that the amount of dollars that would need to be printed (or "QE'd" into existence) to buy enough of them to drive the interest rate down would be such that the side effects would be worse than the benefits of doing it (currency collapse, maybe).

Just wondering what your opinion is on this?

 

Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

 

QE is how they manipulate the long end of the curve. They print money and use it to buy long dated Treasuries, thus reducing the yield at the long end.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

@Castlevania yeah saw that at other thread - hattip to @Frank Hovis

however i just prefer the Brit stuff, but must say the video below is HILARIOUS of a MULTI-Millionaire TIGHT-WAD!

 

I expect some of YOU guys are gonna go like this woman when you've made your millions come the end of the cycle?!!!

 

 

[Castlevania]

13 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

@Castlevania yeah saw that at other thread - hattip to @Frank Hovis

however i just prefer the Brit stuff, but must say the video below is HILARIOUS of a MULTI-Millionaire TIGHT-WAD!

 

I expect some of YOU guys are gonna go like this woman when you've made your millions come the end of the cycle?!!!

 

 

5 minutes in when she’s having a moan about having to spend money on her 17 year old car is gold. 

I’d be the same

How has she managed to get her divorced husband to come around every week to do the house cleaning?

[Sasquatch]

3 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

 

I bought 100 philharmonics from them in December for just under £2400 including delivery.

Same 100 would £2,602.50 with the risk of an additional 20% vat and handling charge...

I checked Chards and they are £3,498.60 for 100 maples.

Still cheaper to go for silver-to-go! About a £350 or so saving if you have to pay vat or almost £900 if your lucky and it gets through vat free

Everyone trying to buy silver at the moment should remember the capital gains tax scenario. Unless I'm mistaken, only silver britannias are excluded from capital gains tax as these coins (along with gold sovereigns) are designated as British legal currency. Not a problem of course if your gain per annum is at or below the threshold (£12,300 I think at the moment( but if silver goes to the moon......? 

[Loki]

23 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

Everyone trying to buy silver at the moment should remember the capital gains tax scenario. Unless I'm mistaken, only silver britannias are excluded from capital gains tax as these coins (along with gold sovereigns) are designated as British legal currency. Not a problem of course if your gain per annum is at or below the threshold (£12,300 I think at the moment( but if silver goes to the moon......? 

I buy maples (cheaper) and Brits (CGT free) for this reason.

Sell the Maples up to CGT limit, then the Brits. 

[Rave]

6 hours ago, JMD said:

(Excuse thread derailment, but cars, yellow reduced stickers and pizzas are sometimes given a free pass here!)                                                                                                                                                                           Could be wrong, but wasn't the late 90's Peugeot 405 considered a sweet spot, cheap and cheerful to buy, and in that the engine required no modification, though I think it was recommended to have a separate veg oil fuel tank so could switch to diesel tank on cold mornings?

As @Knickerless Turgid has already said, PSA cars with the XUD engine are often a good bet for running on veg, yes. The received wisdom is that you want one with a Bosch pump rather than a Lucas one. The Mercedes OM605 and OM606 will apparently run on anything and are tough as old boots. And, in defiance of my 'running direct injection diesels on veg is a bad idea' rule of thumb, people seem to get away with running VW VP and even PD engines on veg.

The only car I've tried it with was a Mk1 Mondeo diesel. I don't think I ever completely got rid of a proportion of fossil diesel in the tank but I ran it on some pretty high concentrations of veg oil over a summer, with no apparent ill effects. Around October I took it down the M23 and noticed it seemed to be hesitating, which I put down to it being too cold and the oil starting to gel. I gave up on the veg at that point- however the next year it became increasingly hard to start and I eventually had to replace the fuel filter housing which contains a rubber diaphragm primer bulb which are notorious for leaking, so the hesitation on veg could simply have been an early manifestation of that problem (or equally the veg could have caused it, I suppose). Not long after that I got fed up with driving such a dreadfully slow car and replaced it with a petrol Mk3 Mondeo which did pretty much half the MPG but was of course a great deal nicer to drive!

One thing which I hadn't considered until I tried it is that it's actually a really slow, laborious and messy process to empty a load of cooking oil bottles into the tank of a car. Each bottle takes a minute or so and there are 4 1/2 litres in a gallon! I guess the process could probably be speeded up somewhat if you were to buy 3 or 5 litre bottles and empty them into a jerry can first, but even so it's a considerable faff.

[Sasquatch]

7 minutes ago, Loki said:

I buy maples (cheaper) and Brits (CGT free) for this reason.

Sell the Maples up to CGT limit, then the Brits. 

I don't have any maples but I do have a nice collection of pre 1920 silver coins which I suspect I will eventually be selling off in the same manner.

And some of them are pre 1920 by about 1,800 years 

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

@Castlevania yeah saw that at other thread - hattip to @Frank Hovis

however i just prefer the Brit stuff, but must say the video below is HILARIOUS of a MULTI-Millionaire TIGHT-WAD!

 

I expect some of YOU guys are gonna go like this woman when you've made your millions come the end of the cycle?!!!

 

 

Just watched this and I don't this she deserves a Dosbods 'Badge of Honour'...there is being cautious/valuing money that I think a number of us do here, and there is exploiting peoples good nature that I get the impression this woman does, whether its her ex-husband, friend, or the sucker who gave her a free flight knowing she was going to a business meeting.

[MrXxxx]

The Big Short now on BBC iplayer if anybody wants to watch it...just watched it again, and it looks as though we haven't learnt from history!

[Bricks & Mortar]

52 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Just watched this and I don't this she deserves a Dosbods 'Badge of Honour'...there is being cautious/valuing money that I think a number of us do here, and there is exploiting peoples good nature that I get the impression this woman does, whether its her ex-husband, friend, or the sucker who gave her a free flight knowing she was going to a business meeting.

Exactly.  As the video started, I was really quite keen on her.  The exploitative aspect was when I decided not to repost in the 'undeluded non-scrapper' thread.

[Bus Stop Boxer]

2 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

Everyone trying to buy silver at the moment should remember the capital gains tax scenario. Unless I'm mistaken, only silver britannias are excluded from capital gains tax as these coins (along with gold sovereigns) are designated as British legal currency. Not a problem of course if your gain per annum is at or below the threshold (£12,300 I think at the moment( but if silver goes to the moon......? 

Its a real fucker trying to play catch up, my best mate has been stacking silver quietly, as off the books as poss for years, and im trying to get loaded up without paying VAT or CGT.

Its been a nice thought thinking you could buy £35ks worth of Brits and know that as the courier struggles down the path a week later with 45 kgs of metal, they could be worth £100k plus.

Paying £7k in VAT sort of takes the edge off but still....

I do have a nice stash of Baird rabbits and monarchs and some first day editions etc.

Seemingly impossible to do in a hurry. Could go the ETF route but not sure if that would help inflict the required damage.

1500 Brits from Germany, plus the UK added vat works out about the same as Ebay prices..

Might sit it out and buy Sovs to address the wider fuckedupedness of everything.

[leonardratso]

BAT+IMB etc;

https://www.wsj.com/articles/during-covid-19-lockdowns-people-went-back-to-smoking-11611829803