Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[23rdian]

1 hour ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

GREAT idea!

 

Why don't we hire a mini-bus with @sancho panza driving (as he seems sensible reading his posts :-) @Harley can give directions AND then give BOLLOCKINGS if he gets LOST!!!

 

Meanwhile I will supply the YRS BEER...in the back we shall be listening to @DurhamBorn 's repertoire of stories, ranging from when he throws someone through a window, to scavenging cigarettes from the local tip to GOURMET pizza making etc, etc...!

 

@MrXxxx will take Kenneth Williams Role AND keep everyone in order, however will probably end up in a altercation with BIG FUN @nirvana as he will be OUT OF CONTROL!

 

NICE!

 

This event is STRICTLY on a first-come, first-served basis SO...

 

ALL that are INTERESTED let me know by up-ticking!

 

 

 

 

Also the German brothels are excellent. Or so I hear.

[Bricks & Mortar]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

Best not, my map reading ability once gave an incredibly polite instructor a melt down like the memorable "it's a church, it's an effing church, right there, in front of you, you effing cretin"!  But I do have good local knowledge and perfect beerkeller german!  Is Ireland any good VAT wise?!

Ireland is my plan.
I think the common travel area might mean its a little more relaxed for Uk citizens.  EU needs any currency, inc gold and silver declared if its entering or leaving the eu, if the value is more than 10,000 EU.  I'm not aware of the UK having a similar condition.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, 23rdian said:

Also the German brothels are excellent. Or so I hear.

"Noch einmal bitte", although I was thinking more about the beerkeller!

[wherebee]

47 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Ireland is my plan.
I think the common travel area might mean its a little more relaxed for Uk citizens.  EU needs any currency, inc gold and silver declared if its entering or leaving the eu, if the value is more than 10,000 EU.  I'm not aware of the UK having a similar condition.

sail to germany and back on a small boat.  Note: you have to actually be able to sail, as the north sea is a bastard at the best of times.

[geordie_lurch]

6 hours ago, wherebee said:

sail to germany and back on a small boat.  Note: you have to actually be able to sail, as the north sea is a bastard at the best of times.

You know it makes sense...

 

[MrXxxx]

10 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

@MrXxxx will take Kenneth Williams Role AND keep everyone in order, however will probably end up in a altercation with BIG FUN @nirvana as he will be OUT OF CONTROL!

"Ohhhhh, stop messssing about!"....and lets get back to the finance/making profits!

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, 23rdian said:

Also the German brothels are excellent. Or so I hear.

I vote @23rdian to be 'Entertainments manager' then! :-)

[planit]

11 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

This event is STRICTLY on a first-come, first-served basis SO...

 

ALL that are INTERESTED let me know by up-ticking!

 

 

 

 

This is so DOSBODS, you will get stopped at customs for too many 40 cent bottles of reduced wine but they won't realise there is EUR2.48m of silver stashed in the boot!

 

They will also ask why you have so many lawnmowers and old electric drills.

[Alex]

8 hours ago, wherebee said:

sail to germany and back on a small boat.  Note: you have to actually be able to sail, as the north sea is a bastard at the best of times.

Given that you're in Australia, I'd have thought the North Sea would be the least of your problems. Hope you have strong arms.

I'll buy a bier or two for whoever does manage to make it here to Berlin in their rubber dinghies with the hidden smuggling compartments in the ballast tanks.

More seriously, as of late 2019 there's an obligation in Germany for the PM dealers to record the identity of anyone buying more than 2,000 Euros worth of gold or silver per month. Previously this was 15,000 Euros. Still no VAT here on PMs and no CGT if held for more than 12 months.

Edit: actually I'm wrong. It appears that VAT is chargeable on some silver coins here, so please DYOR.

[wherebee]

8 minutes ago, Alex said:

Given that you're in Australia, I'd have thought the North Sea would be the least of your problems. Hope you have strong arms.

I'll buy a bier or two for whoever does manage to make it here to Berlin in their rubber dinghies with the hidden smuggling compartments in the ballast tanks.

More seriously, as of late 2019 there's an obligation in Germany for the PM dealers to record the identity of anyone buying more than 2,000 Euros worth of gold or silver per month. Previously this was 15,000 Euros. Still no VAT here on PMs and no CGT if held for more than 12 months.

before I escaped to gods own country I grew up on, in, or around the bastard north sea.  I've been out in a force 9 in a 30 footer.  My parents were insane.

[DoINeedOne]

16 hours ago, JMD said:

Many posts recently regarding inflation (@sancho panza?), not a criticism btw.

Anyway, not sure if some of the content from the below link has already been posted on here - but if not, the report does provide a good overview analysis. Plus has lots of good graphs, and its appendix has a list of reflation stocks... so what's to not like? (i note that many of the stocks have been discussed on here.)

Bracing_for_the_Hangover.pdf (mcusercontent.com)

 

 

@DoINeedOne the publishers of the above report, used to show their own portfolio of 'real asset' type stocks, but checking on their site now, i cant locate it, however thought i'd just mention this in case it could be of use for your 'thread inflation list' that you maintain? 

3Fourteen Research | Manage Risk. Exploit Opportunity.

 

Took a look don't seem to be able to locate there holdings page anywhere so will not be able to track it, this is the issue alot companies don't publicly show their holdings which is understandable

Sometimes 3rd party sites may show them but they don't seem to keep up with updates

Shall read the PDF though thanks..

16 hours ago, CVG said:

It is a bit of a bugger.

I have all of the physical I'm prepared to risk holding (crime / act of god) so now I buy and store extra through Bullionvault.

No VAT payable unless you withdraw it physically from the vault.

https://www.bullionvault.com/help/buying_silver.html

If you want silver without the huge premiums then BullionVault is greets for the fee's which few others have said to be high maybe i actually think they are quite reasonable for what they are providing 

Storage

Easy access to deal

Liquidity (hopefully)

The problem with silver is just the space it takes up compared to the same value in gold

 

 

[CVG]

13 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

The problem with silver is just the space it takes up compared to the same value in gold

 

 

I've got a shopping bag full of the stuff and it's still only worth a few thousand!

[planit]

36 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Took a look don't seem to be able to locate there holdings page anywhere so will not be able to track it, this is the issue alot companies don't publicly show their holdings which is understandable

Sometimes 3rd party sites may show them but they don't seem to keep up with updates

Shall read the PDF though thanks..

If you want silver without the huge premiums then BullionVault is greets for the fee's which few others have said to be high maybe i actually think they are quite reasonable for what they are providing 

Storage

Easy access to deal

Liquidity (hopefully)

The problem with silver is just the space it takes up compared to the same value in gold

 

 

Not sure exactly what holdings you want but there is a company list on the PDF near the bottom.

[Harley]

@BurntBread just been reading more of your narrative 'What I have learned from the "Credit deflation"'.  You're surely a shoe in for this year's  "Durham Award for Excellence"!  Many thanks.

 

[DoINeedOne]

17 hours ago, JMD said:

 

@DoINeedOne the publishers of the above report, used to show their own portfolio of 'real asset' type stocks, but checking on their site now, i cant locate it, however thought i'd just mention this in case it could be of use for your 'thread inflation list' that you maintain? 

3Fourteen Research | Manage Risk. Exploit Opportunity.

 

 

41 minutes ago, planit said:

Not sure exactly what holdings you want but there is a company list on the PDF near the bottom.

The idea behinds tracking funds is how there holdings change over time (new companies added etc....)

The PDF whilst still not read it yet does have a list of companies at the end but anyone can track them on a watchlist for me and the idea behind tracking inflation funds i need to compare it to

if a change is detected

That would be a holdings page of a fund 

[JMD]

14 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Why don't we hire a mini-bus with @sancho panza driving (as he seems sensible reading his posts :-) @Harley can give directions AND then give BOLLOCKINGS if he gets LOST!!!

 

Meanwhile I will supply the YRS BEER...in the back we shall be listening to @DurhamBorn 's repertoire of stories, ranging from when he throws someone through a window, to scavenging cigarettes from the local tip to GOURMET pizza making etc, etc...!

 

@MrXxxx will take Kenneth Williams Role AND keep everyone in order, however will probably end up in a altercation with BIG FUN @nirvana as he will be OUT OF CONTROL!

 

NICE!

 

This event is STRICTLY on a first-come, first-served basis SO...

YRS, do you really have the best interests of this thread at heart? I am very suspicious that you'd suggest something so utterly crazy as a 'Reflationista Thread Group' meet-up!! Are you crazy man, that's just what 'they'(!) are waiting for - after all, it would only take a single drone strike and... oops, hope i haven't said too much already?!?

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

@BurntBread just been reading more of your narrative 'What I have learned from the "Credit deflation"'.  You're surely a shoe in for this year's  "Durham Award for Excellence"!  Many thanks.

 

Harley, please don't post offensive ('woke') videos on here!!

[DurhamBorn]

Should we set up  Ltd  and buy this up the road from me?.Its still got the bank vault in it,we might even be able to fit @Errol s stash in there and @Harley would be all kinds of happy renovating those locks .

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/106071926#/

[reformed nice guy]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56912064

Sainsburys had increased their sales but still put in a £261 million loss

Quote

"grocery sales up 7.8%, general merchandise sales up 8.3% and digital sales up 102%"

Underlying basic earnings per share down 41%

Return on capital employed down from 7.4% to 5.5%

So despite massive government bungs (cheap loans, furlough etc) they made a great big loss.

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Absolutely love this graph. Remember it when you hear a forecast, they're always wrong.

 

It's just astonishing to think each one of those 'hairs' is a forecast based on a team of 'analysts' making six figure salaries. So, so much wrong. That's why I listen to the likes of DH and @DurhamBorn who say "timing is impossible, roadmap only gives direction".

 

Exactly and one of the first things i learned on macro.Destination.Cross market across it.People get way way too interested in the smallest detail when its the big swoop that counts.Getting a roadmap sorted out means you dont waste your time on all the noise.The crazy thing is as well its people who are way clever who make the mistake the most.I spent 5 minutes per balance sheet when i was buying last March.If some had gone under,well tough.I didnt have time.More interested in how the Fed would react and map that than worry if BT had too big a pension deficit,or if some Swedish schoolgirl said oil was finished.Truth is it doesnt matter what the managers do compared to if they can put prices up by 4% a year.

The huge institutions who manage multi billions are interested in every short term move as they have people over their shoulders all the time.5 years might as well be the afterlife to them.We dont have that problem.

We are where we expected with lots of bumps along the way as always.

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56912064

Sainsburys had increased their sales but still put in a £261 million loss

So despite massive government bungs (cheap loans, furlough etc) they made a great big loss.

Push inflation  

[DurhamBorn]

@Cattle Prod i think whats interesting this cycle is how the Fed do tighten.They might actually go to interest rate increases rather than QE removal after the initial tightening.Removing liquidity will cause an incredible bust.Tightening the cost of money might not.Thats the conversation i would be having if i was on the board.Tighten slightly through rates while leaving M3 high.Not yet of course.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

Harley, please don't post offensive ('woke') videos on here!!

Yep, it's a blooming miracle @BurntBreadmanaged to turn them!

[Harley]

44 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Push inflation  

Plus a dollop of wokeism and treating their non-NHS customers like shite!  Another one I'm waiting to dump.

[DurhamBorn]

6 minutes ago, Harley said:

Plus a dollop of wokeism and treating their non-NHS customers like shite!  Another one I'm waiting to dump.

Give price reductions to overweight NHS managers while raising prices for low paid factory workers working with zero social distancing.I sometimes wander in at 6.30pm when they do reductions as nobody is ever in to fight over them.Seems like a lowly declining business.