Jump to content
DOSBODS

  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

spunko

By spunko
in Property Prices & Economy

Recommended Posts

Democorruptcy

Democorruptcy

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, Harley said:

When my partner begins to think we're nutters on here, I show her posts like this!

PS:  I mean that in a good, refuting sort of way!  Let's keep the nuttery our little secret!

Does she post on here herself?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 35.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Democorruptcy

Democorruptcy

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:
gotta tell I've got the BEST neighbours on one side you could ever meet, WHY...they are TIGHTER than me!xD
 
FFS, they collect ALL rain water,even flushing their toilet with buckets of rain water to SAVE on their metered water bill..!xD
 
Anyway...most of the summer i've been scavenging in skips with my tight-wad neighbour, we have literally CLEANED up!

I think you need to be more on your guard. This tight wad neighbour is going to have you paying for something. If you have an outside tap or electric plug socket get them locked!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
JMD

JMD

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:
 
 
I'm BACK!
 
Good evening boys & girls!
 
Must say it's an absolute honour to be missed by ONLY 1 or 2 guys here!xD
 
Well...been very BUSY doing work on my house, AND with this depressing BS covid crap i've had lots of the BEST 90's trance music recorded onto my mp3 and have had it BLASTING out from my house CONSTANTLY while painting/working ect, near on every day, i tell the residents that pass by...this is how life should be AND NOT to listen to this GOV depressing BS messages about covid sh*t !!!
 
Check this CLASSIC out from the legendary Paul Van Dyk (For An Angel) that dude with dark glasses & hat at 0:30 was me strutting my stuff in the day, however @MrXxxx will think the guy at 0:11 getting painted on his chest is me today! :Old:
 
 
Onwards...
 
gotta tell I've got the BEST neighbours on one side you could ever meet, WHY...they are TIGHTER than me!xD
 
FFS, they collect ALL rain water,even flushing their toilet with buckets of rain water to SAVE on their metered water bill..!xD
 
Anyway...most of the summer i've been scavenging in skips with my tight-wad neighbour, we have literally CLEANED up!
 
Right on to some of my share buys...
 
Last week added more BP at £2.16 ... today £1.94 WELL what do ya expect!!!
 
AND guess WHAT I bought today?
 
YES ... Rolls-Royce!
 
They were showing a price of: 84p this morning...yet HL charged me 92p something about volatility ...what bollox, still got them cheaper than the 170p per share i paid back at launch in 1986...blimey waited years to sell & made a SMALL profit, HOPEFULLY this time will be DIFFERENT?!
 
WARNING -> IF I'VE BOUGHT YOU ALL KNOW WHAT THAT MEANS?!!!
 
I reckon they could get to a LOW of: 50p / 60p ?
 
Actually my portfolio not to bad, I NEVER check it regular, logged in today it was ONLY down -3.5% ...mainly gains to my gold/silver stocks, so a BIG THANK YOU to @DurhamBorn
 
I've skimmed through the thread and how come NO-ONE has mentioned NEW-GOLD?
 
Blimey I'm UP 100% on these, @sancho panza must be doing even BETTER?
 
I can remember MANY posts MOANING about NEW-GOLD's dire price, ALWAYS pays to average down/ladder in...knowing my *luck* now I've raved about NEW-GOLD...the price will bloody well COLLAPSE!
 
P.S. Yet again I was WRONG! ...on What?
 
When i said that I'd bought my house last October, it was the TOP for property prices, well bugger me you would NOT believe what's going on in this area, EVERY house that comes on to the market is SOLD within a couple of weeks, FFS, I've been told folks are even knocking on doors and asking if you want to sell!
 
I paid 250K last year - if i sold today it would fetch £300K ...and yet i was pricing in a fall of -30 to -40% over the next decade here in the Cotswolds, story is a lot of folks who work at home now from London want to move here...
 
No doubt this info in the last paragraph will cheer up @TheCountOfNowhere
 
 
 
 

Welcome back YRS, however now you have mentioned RR in your opening post - bad form btw (next you'll be telling me you bought it at 10:42 yesterday morning, ps i don't want to know if you did!)... anyway i guess what I'm getting at is I suppose I'll just have to resign myself to enjoying the ride down along with you!! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
JMD

JMD

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I jsut do the calcs on the divi these companies were comfortably paying with $60 oil.If we get anywhere near there then all of a sudden,my eyes will start watering.I've no idea on the 2028 divi you need a proper road mapper like @DurhamBorn for a decent guesstimate.

Shell was paying $1.88 USD last year.Share price currently roughly $11.05 USD.At this price that's 17% gross yield.Now I don't think they'll reinstate it jsut like that,but rather they'll tease it back up,but when you're kicking off that sort of FCF with oil at $60+ then you have to do something with it.

In short,I'll take my chances looking at the evidence we've seen of late particularly the flashback inducing chart from @DoINeedOne and @Cattle Prod China import chart.I am a gambler though,and sometimes you have to back yourself and take a risk.Will teh 2.8bn people in India and China push up their demand for oil over the next two years by more than 50% of the decline in US shale ie circa 1.5 to 3 million bpd? I'd say it's a near certainty.The demand/supply equilibrium is delicate from what we've seen of the data and we know US supply will only go down by more as theshale wells drilled in Q4 2019 and Q1 2020 start drying up.

Originally we were buying these to sell ahead of the BK,but at these prices they could well go up during the bear market jsut like Billiton/Vodafone/BATs et al did during other bear markets.At these prices-and given the demand outlook- we'll be keeping them I think.(although I may sell some of teh top ladders from 2019 if I get the chance.

Thanks SP, I'll give this more thought, as you say lots of moving parts to consider in order to judge it right. But finding reflation stocks that also pay a decent income is... well, it's surely like having your cake and eating it! What's not to like?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
JMD

JMD

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, BurntBread said:

I used to work (remotely) with a fair few industrial scientists about 5 to 10 years ago at my previous employer. We would be in projects together, but each working in our own countries. Not high end stuff; physical chemistry mostly.

Things may well have changed now, since I know that 5 to 10 years before that, the big Chinese universities (e.g. CAS) were desperate to have any interaction with Western companies doing research, but by the time I had any interaction (2010-2015), CAS couldn't give a shit, because they were getting loads of money from the CCP and could work, at will, with the big American universities. So, attitudes and training are in pretty rapid flux over there.

Anyway, that older history is a bit by-the-by compared to the main point I want to make, which is that when I was working with those industrial scientists, the only good ones were the few who had done post-docs in America. That's not to say that the others didn't have the relevant knowledge; it was just that they would not or could not question results or propose ways to confirm or refute the understanding we thought we had at that stage. Neither could they come up with alternative explanations as foils, unless it was text-book stuff. I other words, they were technicians, not scientists. I think for the others, it was partly the inhibition from thinking they might look a fool (so would never ask a question to check their own understanding), and partly the fact that the current understanding of each problem was somehow seen as the authority on the matter, and so shouldn't be questioned. It needed people to spend a couple of years in a foreign, sceptical and open culture for them to shed their inhibitions. It's also the case that it takes a long time and much practice to get good at asking research questions, and they obviously didn't get that practice as scientists working in China.

Having said that, Japanese laboratories are also very top-down, and "Professor is always right", but have produced some great work, so it doesn't completely halt progress. Nevertheless, I think China has under-performed in breakthrough research because of those cultural handicaps. The subsequent years might have changed that, as more people will have studied abroad - but even though I have had no contact with the Chinese research scene since about 2015, I expect culture to change slowly, and what you would find is a few American-trained super-stars getting enormous government funding, while a large majority don't get the chance to develop as independent thinkers, so miss the chance to make those big advances. I would also be shocked if there isn't a lot of bureaucratic empire-building and corruption at Chinese universities, which diverts money and effort from real work.

Interesting. I posted recently contrasting the cccp stooges (gov. spy's) that accompany foreign journalists and their former USSR counterparts. I shan't repeat (bore you) with what I said then, but I do agree with your remarks. I think all nations have differing cultures, mainly defined by their history and political framework. China's politics are a schizophrenic mix of communist authoritarianism and free(ish? depending on district/city)market capitalism... they have created a particularly freakish conjoined twin. So It is probably unsurprising then that their citizens underachieve compared to the West or their own neighbour India.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gin

Gin

Posted
Posted

I have decided to spend £3k  . I have never bought shares in my life. I am willing to lose it , so it is my gamble . :Jumping:

In an investing for dummies language where should I gamble/invest it . ?

I have banked with Barclays now for nigh on 50 years , not that the term is relevant I suppose , but would it be easier & seem less complex to my extremely unacademic mind , to take out an isa with them and invest in Vodaphone and BP say to keep it simple....?

Any opinions from the wise on here much appreciated and all taken with dyor in mind ....thanks.

I am retired .

ps No crack and whores please that would kill me ...:/

Link to comment
Share on other sites
UnconventionalWisdom

UnconventionalWisdom

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Gin said:

I have decided to spend £3k  . I have never bought shares in my life. I am willing to lose it , so it is my gamble . :Jumping:

In an investing for dummies language where should I gamble/invest it . ?

I have banked with Barclays now for nigh on 50 years , not that the term is relevant I suppose , but would it be easier & seem less complex to my extremely unacademic mind , to take out an isa with them and invest in Vodaphone and BP say to keep it simple....?

Any opinions from the wise on here much appreciated and all taken with dyor in mind ....thanks.

I am retired .

ps No crack and whores please that would kill me ...:/

It depends on how far you want to take it. The £85k FSCS protection also applies to stocks and shares so may be good to spread the risk. 

The banks know there are many people who will think like you that it's easier to just go with them so the rates or offerings may not be great- compare to the main players-hl, youinvest etc. 

All the platforms are easy to sign up to so there shouldn't be any stress. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Democorruptcy

Democorruptcy

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/shell-results/update-1-shell-increases-dividend-after-beating-q3-forecasts-idUKL1N2HK0FN

+4% on the divi

Bit more about it

Quote

 

Chair of the Board of Royal Dutch Shell, Chad Holliday commented: "The Board has reviewed Shell's recent performance and its plans to grow its businesses of the future, and we are confident that Shell can sustainably grow its shareholder distributions as well as invest for growth.

As a result, the Board has decided to increase the dividend per share to 16.65 US cents for the third quarter 2020. The Board has additionally approved a cash allocation framework for Shell which, on reducing its net debt to $65 billion, will target total shareholder distributions of 20-30% of cash flow from operations

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/r/royal-dutch-shell-plc-b-shares-eur0.07?tab=security_news

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Democorruptcy

Democorruptcy

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Harley said:

No, reads the BBC website for balance!:)

PS: Hands off!

I thought you were the perp! If my name hadn't been in the list, I would have voted for you but my competitive spirit took over.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
lid

lid

Posted
Posted

My sipp's set up and i've got 32k in there, been buying bp/shell/repsol/bt/vodafone/telefonica - will buy some yankee oil shares once my w8ben form's been processed..

re oil shares i've not seen much mention of Total on here, dividend yield seems ok but is it the 28% french withholding tax that puts people off?

cheers

Link to comment
Share on other sites
jamtomorrow

jamtomorrow

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, lid said:

My sipp's set up and i've got 32k in there, been buying bp/shell/repsol/bt/vodafone/telefonica - will buy some yankee oil shares once my w8ben form's been processed..

re oil shares i've not seen much mention of Total on here, dividend yield seems ok but is it the 28% french withholding tax that puts people off?

cheers

I'm still waiting for Total to hit the top rung on my ladder - it just hasn't been ground back significantly below March lows like BP, RDSB and REP. Would love to understand why Mr. Market thinks Total is "different" in this respect

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Sugarlips

Sugarlips

Posted
Posted

Silver falling at a clip here, currently $22.75, looks to be retesting 2 month lows, think I’m getting out of my recent small 3x leverage play, will crystalise a small loss but as above, things will be clearer come Guy Fawkes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
sancho panza

sancho panza

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

So Exxon maintains the divi on the same day that Guyana resource was upgraded to 9bn bbl. FT said today that Exxon thinks in decades, and likes to countercyclicly invest, what do you think, folks? Its costing them more than their peers who have cut divi, seems like they can see past this 6 months.

 

Screenshot_20201029-000245_Twitter.thumb.jpg.d28d2d4a25be9b35ae2962a43fb2c28c.jpg

Total didn't cut theirs either, look to be in good shape. Decl I own both

If the below is true and China's import growth maintains something resembling linear growth and US shale continues downward trajectory,then they haev that room for manouvre.

I'm not surprised they haven't cut.They consider themselbves a 'generational' purchase for people in muich teh way Shell used to be viewed.

This was an opportunity to harbour some cash and they've taken a different strategy.Be interesting to see how many insiders are buying? @Popuplights

WTI down 4% ,most major oilies are up.Could be the bottom is in?If we get a clear Trump win(the only likely clear win I can foresee as Biden looks out in Florida) then we could be off to the races.

Decl-own XOM

 

6 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Two other things discussed here appeared in the MSM this morning:

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-28/repsol-targets-canadian-oil-for-any-venezuela-mexico-shortfall

So they've picked up on the fact that Mexico is going to stop exporting, as they need it domestically. As much as AMLO flaps about foreigners, it's really about the decline rates in their fields. 'Less favourable terms' is jut a euphamism for that. This will have wider repercussions, as US also has refineries set up for heavy crude, rather than their own light stuff. The solution of course is Canada as I've said, and I'm pleased to see Repsol making the first move. I'll be very interested to see if the US will 'let' Canada' export heavy crude to Europe. 2m bbl a month is a drop in the Canadian ocean, but it'll set a precedent.

If Repsol doesn't get a deal from Canada, they'll probably buy a Colombian company. Mexico is in big trouble: the foreign companies they let in since 2015 have already discovered billions of barrels of oil offshore that Pemex missed for decades. This is very embarassing for them, and instead of getting it into production they are causing delays, basically pretending it didn't happen. Meanwhile their main source of foreign earnings is going down the tubes, and the only means Mexico has for keeping the cartels in check. If AMLO isn't careful, he'll be presiding over a civil war.

The second one was about physical oil demand versus spooked futures markets:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-physical-idUSKBN27E04J

Chinese oil demand will finish the year in growth, as in higher than last year, and India is likely to be the same. Covid-19 has been but a blip in their trajectories. As ever, the physical traders are ahead of the paper market on this. Futures traders are still navel gazing about French lockdowns and US elections, and selling. They mostly live in bubbles in London and New York of course, while the physical traders are out there in ports and refineries doing deals at the coalface, even if they live in London or Geneva or whatever.

Interesting that China demand is up yoy...........whooda thunk it?

Have you got a forecast for eventual US output post shale collapse.Will it bottom at 5 mbpd? Add in teh Mexican export drop....etc etc

As a result of China and India move up 2 mbpd over time,have you got a rough idea of what that might do to the price? Any hsitorical guides? ie 3mn shortage versus demand =?? uplift in WTI

3 hours ago, kibuc said:

Newmont  is up, with "the best quarterly financial performance in Newmont’s history" and Q3 FCF of $1.3 billion.

https://www.newmont.com/investors/news-release/news-details/2020/Newmont-Announces-Record-Third-Quarter-2020-Results/default.aspx

 

Edit: And that's my last update for now, as I'm electing to take a break from the market until the 5th.

Big gold luvvin it.....

Wouldn't give up your day job for 'pun'stering......

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

  • Latest threads

×
×
  • Create New...