Death Of London

[spygirl]

Want to feel young again? Eat out in central London

I am 60. In many top restaurants, I am also the youngest diner in the room

https://www.ft.com/content/5bed7566-9265-4b67-9099-8c520ab7dcb9

I just discovered that I was born in the last year of the boomers. This means, as far as I can tell, that I’m supposed to have worn flares at Woodstock. I didn’t. I was at the St Matthias College infant school and if I’d seen mud, I’d have probably eaten it. Generalising into broad, stereotypical age groups rarely withstands any closer observation. Even admen and politicians know that.

And yet, the past couple of years of solid restaurant-going in the heart of our great metropolis have forced me to acknowledge what can only really be described as an age-based phenomenon. I wouldn’t want to claim to have been the youngest person in the dining room but too often, looking carefully about, there’s nobody noticeably younger. Of course, this should cause no surprise. Restaurant prices are rising inexorably.

If young people can barely afford to rent, let alone buy flats in the capital, it’s hard to imagine they’re going to be as keen to stump up for a posh night out with quite the enthusiasm that their parents are spaffing the inheritance. Dining in good restaurants has always been a luxury, and the old have always dominated that arena. But I don’t enjoy sitting in a place where everyone is my age or older.

 

I would hazard that the young people earning money are only in London 1 r 2 days a week.

The only people left are the OAPS, who are leaching off the youngers earnings and inability to afford London HPs

In which case, London economy - and its housing market - is a dead turd floating.

The ONs numbers ere dire - -6% Nov22-Nov23

The current numbers are going to be worst - ~20%+ falls.

And this is an area when the mortgage property market has been falling for several years.

Again, you might need to plan for London going back to 2004.

 

 

 

 

[spygirl]

India’s business elite sounds alarm over Rolex thefts in London’s Mayfair

Executives say police have been slow to respond to a spate of muggings in the UK capital

https://www.ft.com/content/3467184a-23dc-427c-a1e8-0256b5f0f653

While negotiators in London and New Delhi haggle over a bilateral trade deal, India’s business elite has been raising a very different concern: the fear of being mugged in Mayfair.

David Lammy, shadow foreign secretary, is in the Indian capital for talks on geopolitics and commerce but on Tuesday had his ear bent over the risks of Rolex watch thefts in the British capital.

Devin Narang, a renewable energy entrepreneur, listed crime in London as one of the biggest concerns of the country’s chief executive class at a meeting held between Lammy and Indian businesspeople

Maybe they think Lammy knows who's got their rolex....

[steppensheep]

Victoria line train, kings cross, 11:45 am

 

Oxford street station

 

[steppensheep]

Wish it was like this when I worked in London.

 

I suppose Tuesday before lunchtime is one of the quieter times, tbf.

[spygirl]

55 minutes ago, steppensheep said:

Wish it was like this when I worked in London.

 

I suppose Tuesday before lunchtime is one of the quieter times, tbf.

I was commenting on the trains strikes to my Mum, saying theyve been a fat nothing.

Im not sure how much hte various bits n bobs have been striking. Surely this must be the most days lost to strikes in decades???

However, you dont here anything from the customers.

 

[Rare Bear]

I was I Oxford Street/ Tottenham court road the other week and although there were people around the shops I was in looked distinctly under customered.

On the other hand, I was in Canary Wharf today and the place looked as busy as ever. It's a few years since I've been there. One big change there, definite signs of enrichment.

[spygirl]

On 20/02/2024 at 23:34, Rare Bear said:

I was I Oxford Street/ Tottenham court road the other week and although there were people around the shops I was in looked distinctly under customered.

On the other hand, I was in Canary Wharf today and the place looked as busy as ever. It's a few years since I've been there. One big change there, definite signs of enrichment.

Look at the Moving home with Charlie vids.

The message there is - everyone losing job, laid off, recession, slowdown.

I think hes right - hes based in London/SE.

Id also guess mid to late 40s, public school boy, so prob entered the wonderful world of work ~late 90s.

Since a few years before Big Bang (86) London/SE has been dragging in huge number of people, who end up working very hard, then get all their hard earned sucked off by the various services and whatnot that has developed in London since 83ish.

Sure, there was massive slowdown from 89 to 94ish, as the high London multiples hit the brick wall of 10% IRs.

But it go up, and pushed the HPE multiples to insane levels.

Then 07 and all that. Step change in number of finsec jobs and pay.

Sure theres still people paid ££££. But theres no longer 1000s of low skilled on £££££££

The continuous automation means theres no traders. No back office, no paper work.

Sure, people are still going for meals out n beer.

But look at the state of shopping .

Despite the claim, central London is suffering just as much as a regional town. See Oxford Street- more n more like Adbuls Kabul sweetshop.

Look at Canary Wharf n CoL. Both are getting desperate.

Back to Charlie.

Theres a vast servive industry, set up to feed off eager young people working in London for 10y, before they try and cash in equity and fuck off somewhere more rural.

Charlie, being in housing, is very much part of this group.

Hes feeling wind turn.

Before Coof, I thought I might end up doing a day or two in London , get train down, Premier Inn in, mid week, then fuck off.

Now I dont think thats likely.

The sector I deal with is totally fine with remote working. Coof brought about 10-15 of changes in.

 

 

 

Edited February 24 by spygirl

[One percent]

I was talking to someone who lived in the west of london, now into student rentals in the same area. She reckons that sales have fallen off a cliff and prices dropping massively. However, my daughters are looking to buy (I know but im fed up of giving them bad advice) to the north east of London.  They can’t even get to viewing before they are sstc.   Dunno what that’s telling us. 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

House prices look like they're rising in SE London. My neighbours have sold STC, they had the buyer's surveyors round on Wednesday. Asking price was a lot higher than I expected. Asking prices generally seem higher. Of course SE London is a relatively affordable part of the city. Perhaps with much more remote working the tube premium elsewhere is reducing?

[Bobthebuilder]

2 hours ago, spygirl said:

Theres a vast servive industry, set up to feed off eager young people working in London for 10y, before they try and cash in equity and fuck off somewhere more rural.

That is bang on Spy. My work was always young couples that bought a house, did it up, new boiler and servicing every year, have a child then move out, rinse and repeat. Covid accelerated that to the extent that my business has fallen around 50% since 2020. 

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

House prices look like they're rising in SE London. My neighbours have sold STC, they had the buyer's surveyors round on Wednesday. Asking price was a lot higher than I expected. Asking prices generally seem higher. Of course SE London is a relatively affordable part of the city. Perhaps with much more remote working the tube premium elsewhere is reducing?

Interesting. I am in SE London, prices seem to have been falling for years here, I do not keep an eye on it much anymore, is it turning around now?

[Yadda yadda yadda]

3 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Interesting. I am in SE London, prices seem to have been falling for years here, I do not keep an eye on it much anymore, is it turning around now?

They are in my area. Fell a bit as interest rates increased but seem to be rising now. I only look occasionally in a small area and it is a small sample size. Need to confirm with actual sold prices

[Talking Monkey]

On 20/02/2024 at 23:34, Rare Bear said:

I was I Oxford Street/ Tottenham court road the other week and although there were people around the shops I was in looked distinctly under customered.

On the other hand, I was in Canary Wharf today and the place looked as busy as ever. It's a few years since I've been there. One big change there, definite signs of enrichment.

I wonder what the enriching cohort are doing around canary wharf, I'd expect only office workers around there

[Bobthebuilder]

8 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

I wonder what the enriching cohort are doing around canary wharf, I'd expect only office workers around there

Loads of muslims in council houses on the Isle of dogs, just go south from canary wharf, or north to tower hamlets.

[onlyme]

8 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

They are in my area. Fell a bit as interest rates increased but seem to be rising now. I only look occasionally in a small area and it is a small sample size. Need to confirm with actual sold prices

Some of the figs IIRC have shown a bit of  stability in London pricing, the kitchen sink (predictably) has been thrown at the positive vibe in the press - rate cuts, no recession. no actual falls, we're going to get a spring bounce,  will have tempted some. 

[AWW]

On 20/02/2024 at 13:23, spygirl said:

I was commenting on the trains strikes to my Mum, saying theyve been a fat nothing.

Im not sure how much hte various bits n bobs have been striking. Surely this must be the most days lost to strikes in decades???

However, you dont here anything from the customers.

 

Train strike just means a work from home day for a lot of people. That's why nobody gives a fuck about the strikes.

[sancho panza]

13 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Interesting. I am in SE London, prices seem to have been falling for years here, I do not keep an eye on it much anymore, is it turning around now?

inner psotcodes seem flat over the last decade

 

 

 

Edited February 25 by sancho panza

[spygirl]

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

inner psotcodes seem flat over the last decade

 

 

 

Look at the HTB spike on the last chart!

 

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

39 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Look at the HTB spike on the last chart!

 

 

That is SE1, which includes a large swathe of the south bank. Will have been some of the new massively expensive towers near the river. I don't think htb impacted £1.9m flats very much. Some of those flats were on for a lot more than that.

[spygirl]

48 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

That is SE1, which includes a large swathe of the south bank. Will have been some of the new massively expensive towers near the river. I don't think htb impacted £1.9m flats very much. Some of those flats were on for a lot more than that.

Id HTB didnt affect prices then why did prices shoot up from 2013ish then fall after it ended?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Help_to_Buy

Schemes[edit]

Subject to restrictions, which in some cases vary by country, the types of Help to Buy scheme are:^[6]

• Help to Buy: Equity Loans: Buyers contribute a 5% deposit, the government provides an equity loan for up to 20% of the property value (40% within London), and buyers must provide the remaining funds themselves, typically from a mortgage. Available only for new-build under a certain amount (e.g. less than £600,000 in England, £300,000 in Wales); the loan is interest-free for the first five years. This is the most high-profile of the schemes, and is often referred to simply as "Help to Buy". Also known as "phase one" of Help to Buy. Help To Buy was available in Scotland but has stopped accepting new applications as of 5th February 2021.^[7] The Help to Buy: Equity Loan scheme was closed to new applicants on 31 October 2022.^[8]
• Help to Buy: Mortgage Guarantees: 5% deposit mortgages are available from ten different providers (up from five at the time of its launch^[9]), with the government (i.e. taxpayers) acting as a guarantor for the mortgage. Unlike equity loans, this plank of the programme is not restricted to those buying new-build; subject to restrictions, anyone wanting to buy any home in the UK worth less than £600,000 is eligible for the scheme. It is often referred to as "phase two" of Help to Buy. In September 2016, the UK Government announced that the Mortgage Guarantee scheme would not be extended for 2017.^[10]
• Shared Ownership: This was already available in the UK via housing associations before the launch of Help to Buy.
• New Buy: Allows buyers to purchase a newly built home with a deposit of only 5% of the purchase price.
• Help to Buy ISA: Under this scheme, savers pay money into an ISA and are then given a cash bonus from the government when purchasing a property. This scheme closes for new entrants in November 2019 and any bonus must be claimed by 2030^[11]
• Lifetime ISA: Like the Help to Buy ISA, but this is only open to those aged 18-39. A key difference is that the money saved can be used towards purchasing a home or to fund a pension.

Oversight[edit]

Aware of its upward effect upon house prices, George Osborne handed oversight of Help to Buy to Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney.^[12] Carney pledged to bring the scheme to an end if the Bank deemed it to be destabilising the housing market,^[13] though it was later confirmed by Carney that the UK's central bank had not, in fact, been granted a veto by the chancellor.^[14] As part of the Bank's advisory role, its Financial Policy Committee will produce an annual report.^[15]

In January 2014, Carney played down the threat of a housing bubble.^[16] It was rumoured at Davos 2014 the same month that Carney had been expressing a wish for the cap of £600,000 for phase two reduced by at least a third, partly to undercut the argument that Help to Buy was a major factor behind soaring prices in London.^[17] Regarding the capital, Carney said in February 2014 that price rises, which he said were constrained to the most affluent areas of the city, were beyond his control as governor, since they were driven by the cash purchases of the rich.^[18

 

The peak in numbers sold also tracks the price peak of ~300k, whcih is pretty talleis wit hthe junk flats being thrown up in London.

Financial Times  Global Economy

 

Add to myFT

Cranes lift London to towering height over rest of UK

https://www.ft.com/content/dafd13d4-b3fc-11e2-b5a5-00144feabdc0

By Chris Giles, Economics Editor MAY 5 2013

0 Print this page With Britain’s economy bumping along the bottom and official data prone to large revisions, analysts have been on the lookout for indicators of regional and national recovery.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

Just now, spygirl said:

Id HTB didnt affect prices then why did prices shoot up from 2013ish then fall after it ended?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Help_to_Buy

Schemes[edit]

Subject to restrictions, which in some cases vary by country, the types of Help to Buy scheme are:^[6]

• Help to Buy: Equity Loans: Buyers contribute a 5% deposit, the government provides an equity loan for up to 20% of the property value (40% within London), and buyers must provide the remaining funds themselves, typically from a mortgage. Available only for new-build under a certain amount (e.g. less than £600,000 in England, £300,000 in Wales); the loan is interest-free for the first five years. This is the most high-profile of the schemes, and is often referred to simply as "Help to Buy". Also known as "phase one" of Help to Buy. Help To Buy was available in Scotland but has stopped accepting new applications as of 5th February 2021.^[7] The Help to Buy: Equity Loan scheme was closed to new applicants on 31 October 2022.^[8]
• Help to Buy: Mortgage Guarantees: 5% deposit mortgages are available from ten different providers (up from five at the time of its launch^[9]), with the government (i.e. taxpayers) acting as a guarantor for the mortgage. Unlike equity loans, this plank of the programme is not restricted to those buying new-build; subject to restrictions, anyone wanting to buy any home in the UK worth less than £600,000 is eligible for the scheme. It is often referred to as "phase two" of Help to Buy. In September 2016, the UK Government announced that the Mortgage Guarantee scheme would not be extended for 2017.^[10]
• Shared Ownership: This was already available in the UK via housing associations before the launch of Help to Buy.
• New Buy: Allows buyers to purchase a newly built home with a deposit of only 5% of the purchase price.
• Help to Buy ISA: Under this scheme, savers pay money into an ISA and are then given a cash bonus from the government when purchasing a property. This scheme closes for new entrants in November 2019 and any bonus must be claimed by 2030^[11]
• Lifetime ISA: Like the Help to Buy ISA, but this is only open to those aged 18-39. A key difference is that the money saved can be used towards purchasing a home or to fund a pension.

Oversight[edit]

Aware of its upward effect upon house prices, George Osborne handed oversight of Help to Buy to Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney.^[12] Carney pledged to bring the scheme to an end if the Bank deemed it to be destabilising the housing market,^[13] though it was later confirmed by Carney that the UK's central bank had not, in fact, been granted a veto by the chancellor.^[14] As part of the Bank's advisory role, its Financial Policy Committee will produce an annual report.^[15]

In January 2014, Carney played down the threat of a housing bubble.^[16] It was rumoured at Davos 2014 the same month that Carney had been expressing a wish for the cap of £600,000 for phase two reduced by at least a third, partly to undercut the argument that Help to Buy was a major factor behind soaring prices in London.^[17] Regarding the capital, Carney said in February 2014 that price rises, which he said were constrained to the most affluent areas of the city, were beyond his control as governor, since they were driven by the cash purchases of the rich.^[18

 

The peak in numbers sold also tracks the price peak of ~300k, whcih is pretty talleis wit hthe junk flats being thrown up in London.

Financial Times  Global Economy

 

Add to myFT

Cranes lift London to towering height over rest of UK

https://www.ft.com/content/dafd13d4-b3fc-11e2-b5a5-00144feabdc0

By Chris Giles, Economics Editor MAY 5 2013

0 Print this page With Britain’s economy bumping along the bottom and official data prone to large revisions, analysts have been on the lookout for indicators of regional and national recovery.

Up to £600,000. The average price in SE1 was around £1.9m in the spike on that chart. It was due to a stream of very expensive riverside properties that disfigured the south bank around that time.

[spygirl]

12 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Up to £600,000. The average price in SE1 was around £1.9m in the spike on that chart. It was due to a stream of very expensive riverside properties that disfigured the south bank around that time.

This gives a bit more detail - 

https://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?location=se1&startmonth=01&startyear=2007&endmonth=11&endyear=2023

Look at the median flat selling price  in the 2nd chart

 

 

[spygirl]

Local prices near me have been stuck at 2004 prices.

Sure, theres been the odd psike, caused by idiots piling into FHL, and ZIRP hasnt helped.

But as we continue with nomalish IRs then the whole lot will fall out.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

10 minutes ago, spygirl said:

This gives a bit more detail - 

https://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?location=se1&startmonth=01&startyear=2007&endmonth=11&endyear=2023

Look at the median flat selling price  in the 2nd chart

 

 

Those stats don't support your argument that htb increased prices in an area where the average price was over the £600k limit. More sales at that price would bring the average down. The spikes show some very expensive properties changing hands. Rightmove has the average priced flat as over £700k last year, despite a lot of data not yet being available for the most recent months.

Spikes in this area are down to low numbers of very expensive flats. This flat alone has twice spiked the local prices. What it also shows is that central London prices have been flat or down for a long time.  That is definitely the case, extends at least a decade and applies to ex council flats as well as the expensive stuff. Further out prices dipped but appear to be rising again at the moment.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/details/england-17839549?s=cb01bca91cacce22705d20f07eb13b3951e08a4a3f33f4621a29934df7b89b0d#/

[spygirl]

Addison Lee flags drop in bookings from UK financial sector

London private taxi and courier company says Canary Wharf activity particularly quiet

https://www.ft.com/content/e08ac020-018f-4ac8-8f2d-2eb9e83dbd30

A drop in bookings by financial companies, particularly in Canary Wharf, has contributed to a slowdown in Addison Lee’s business in London this year, according to the minicab company’s chief executive. 

Liam Griffin said bookings for Addison Lee’s courier business, which he described as a “true measure” of London’s economic activity, had fallen 10 per cent year-on-year in the first two months of 2024, following a strong performance in 2023. 

Its like LOndon has been filled up with loads of people that dont go to work ....

 

[AWW]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

Addison Lee flags drop in bookings from UK financial sector

London private taxi and courier company says Canary Wharf activity particularly quiet

https://www.ft.com/content/e08ac020-018f-4ac8-8f2d-2eb9e83dbd30

A drop in bookings by financial companies, particularly in Canary Wharf, has contributed to a slowdown in Addison Lee’s business in London this year, according to the minicab company’s chief executive. 

Liam Griffin said bookings for Addison Lee’s courier business, which he described as a “true measure” of London’s economic activity, had fallen 10 per cent year-on-year in the first two months of 2024, following a strong performance in 2023. 

Its like LOndon has been filled up with loads of people that dont go to work ....

 

Pretty difficult to justify a 3-mile cab journey on expenses when the boss is sitting on a Teams call with someone on the other side of the world.