Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[With a crooked smile]

2 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I gently guided my old apprentice towards a ten year fix not so long ago, he got one around 2%.

Other mates are still getting 2 year fixes with fees.

That's a very very good deal. Particularly taking into consideration the fee to fix every 2 to 5 years that they would face otherwise.

I don't particularly follow 10 year rates but have never seen them below about 3 point something. The only thing that puts me off is is if you need to leave early eg have extra kids and need a bigger place or divorce the exit fees traditionally were pretty nasty. That might have changed now not sure.

[With a crooked smile]

1 hour ago, haroldshand said:

Around 2017 I got a lot of abuse and stick on ToS for daring to say their property crash mantra had flaws and it was quite clear that there were a lot posters that went way way back further than me who were also predicting a crash back then.

I am convinced it began when those who experienced the 1990's crash who thought exactly the same was happening again and fed  that BS to youngsters without taking into account politics at all, the letting in of 10 million immigrants for starters not including a debt frenzy, Jesus I just realised you could type for pages on the crap that was allowed this time around.

I think right now and if I had the inclination to post on ToS I would for the first time be posting "Crash possibly coming" but it would just be missed with the thousands of other certain imminent crashes.

In fairness I dont think being wrong about the future is that bad. What was bad was repeating the same incorrect message time and again when all the evidence pointed in the other direction.

Look how spy fucked up. Bought a house on a low LTV in a cheap area he obviously hates judging by his posts. Last I heard he was on about being mortgage free soon.

Could have done it differently.  Big fuck off house bought interest only in early 2000s on high ltv in a nice area with plenty of space for the kids.

 

Downsize now the kids are older to a place thats been paid off with the equity and cash in the bank. Woops.

[Bobthebuilder]

9 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

That's a very very good deal. Particularly taking into consideration the fee to fix every 2 to 5 years that they would face otherwise.

I don't particularly follow 10 year rates but have never seen them below about 3 point something. The only thing that puts me off is is if you need to leave early eg have extra kids and need a bigger place or divorce the exit fees traditionally were pretty nasty. That might have changed now not sure.

just checked his message to me in June 2021, 1.99% ten year.

[Uncle Buck Rogers]

On 03/07/2022 at 21:40, sancho panza said:

From @Lightscribe on the main thread

 

Ignore the noise, keep an eye on what’s happening on the shop floor.

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/property/4577781-if-you-are-a-landlord-are-you-thinking-of-selling-up

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/property/4573075-london-flat-market

The site is a great barometer for many things.

 

 

 

 

(Being glad i'm single being the main one)

[Frank Hovis]

26 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Yeah, I don't know the area TBF. My whole perspective is based on a certain type of person that seemed to all announce they had bought a second home during COVID. Maybe they were just faking it with an AirBNB

 

I suppose that there are several Cornwalls.

In my street, good area of modest houses on decent plots, the first four on my side run - cash buyer about ten years ago, single man retired from SE, cash buyer retired couple local eight years ago, cash buyer me local eight years ago, widow owned since new build fifty years ago.

There's no crash material there, nor for that matter any reason for HPI.  There isn't really a market. And this is typical of the areas in which most people I know live.

What you may be seeing is the St Ives / Rock / Porthleven types who buy a tiny two up two down terrace for an inflated price so they can talk about it in an overloud voice down the pub.

These are different kinds of house as they're very small and were probably rentals before being sold as second homes.

Those particular types might crash as there isn't anything to support them as they don't work as family homes because they're too small.

[With a crooked smile]

7 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

Those particular types might crash as there isn't anything to support them as they don't work as family homes because they're too small.

Very good point Frank, we have lots of 2 up 2 downs in Keswick that look quaint but aren't that practical even when extended.  They might work for a couple as an alternative to a flat.

I'm under the impression that the Scilly Isles once experienced a particularly bad crash worse % wise than the rest of the UK maybe as we exited the ERM. I can't seem to find details online tho.

I think the reason was they were all second homes and if you have a choice in a downturn the holiday home will go before the family one does.

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

Granted this is the US but there is most definitely a very obvious mechanism for a crash.

The question is does Clap For Bankers Boris willing to crash prices....he certainly doesn't seem to want to.

He wont be there much longer though, hopefully.

 

Bit more context there, the US rates are back to 2007 levels

With the US30 Y going vertical that explains my colleague having a 33% increase in repayment amount offered in the space of 2 weeks.

I should be careful with my thoughts. But there's the selfish little feeling that what's bad for many may be good for me.

[Axeman123]

27 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

...if you have a choice in a downturn the holiday home will go before the family one does.

I would suggest that sometimes the holiday home (that isn't noticed by the peer group) will go before the golf club membership or Range Rover (that is highly visible) will.

[HousePriceMania]

24 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

With the US30 Y going vertical that explains my colleague having a 33% increase in repayment amount offered in the space of 2 weeks.

I should be careful with my thoughts. But there's the selfish little feeling that what's bad for many may be good for me.

I'd not worry about it, they dont give a flying fuck about you or I.  The boomers/BTL/HMO parasites will happily feast off your productive work and children's future.

I'm happy to watch total carnage and a return to some sort of normal where productive work pays, debt is seena s bad and houses as shelter from the rain.

In particular I'd like my boomer father in law to explicitly state that the housing bubble and the pretend wealth was a bad thing and I was right all along.  I also want to see at least 3 people that I know well bankrupted by their out and out faith in the "housing market".

Fuck them, it's every man for himself now.

Edited July 5, 2022 by HousePriceMania

[HousePriceMania]

2 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I would suggest that sometimes the holiday home (that isn't noticed by the peer group) will go before the golf club membership or Range Rover (that is highly visible) will.

The holiday home that they can't afford to drive to, pay the council tax on, that needs constant upkeep, that no one wants to rent out because they are skint and that now costs 2x more than it used to because mortgages rates have shot up.

 

I think you could be right.

[Onsamui]

1 hour ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

It needs people exposed on those mortages though.

I heard this year that the two most junior, as in lowest paid, members of of one of my old teams had each paid off their mortgages over the last couple of years.  People aged about fifty.

This is fairly typical as, depending upon when you started work, you either bought cheaply twenty or more years ago or, if starting work much after this, you have always rented as local wages can no longer command sufficient mortgage borrowings to buy a house.

Two points to note:

• I am only talking about Cornwall - a market I know well. 
• I very much would love to see a HPC in Cornwall.  I'm not talking the market up I simple don't see from where a crash would arise within Cornwall; though London crashing would bring down the whole country.

Everybody in Cornwall thought that in 89/90, and my goodness what a crash.  Many friends lost everything.  

[HousePriceMania]

8 minutes ago, Onsamui said:

Everybody in Cornwall thought that in 89/90, and my goodness what a crash.  Many friends lost everything.  

The only people I know who weren't screwed by the 90s crash were the people who didn't own houses.

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

The only people I know who weren't screwed by the 90s crash were the people who didn't own houses.

I had a relative that was holding cash and rubbing his hands at the bargains, even got a brutally low offer accepted on an absolute trophy property, but he couldn't accept having to take less for his own place to get it done. He ended up waiting too long for an offer he could live with on it, and by then he couldn't stomach the prices on another one.

He still seemed aggrieved about the whole thing when he died less than a decade ago, would bring it up at least once anytime you visited for the weekend and seemed to be stalking the house (ie asking prices on the property, trees removed seen from the road). Even he got slightly screwed.

Edited July 5, 2022 by Axeman123
add last para

[HousePriceMania]

Hands up who thinks Sunak knows something no one else bar us do ?

[HousePriceMania]

@Frank Hovis

 

"I don't however see any obvious mechanism for a crash "

 

 

 

 

That changed quickly.

[sancho panza]

8 hours ago, haroldshand said:

Around 2017 I got a lot of abuse and stick on ToS for daring to say their property crash mantra had flaws and it was quite clear that there were a lot posters that went way way back further than me who were also predicting a crash back then.

I am convinced it began when those who experienced the 1990's crash who thought exactly the same was happening again and fed  that BS to youngsters without taking into account politics at all, the letting in of 10 million immigrants for starters not including a debt frenzy, Jesus I just realised you could type for pages on the crap that was allowed this time around.

I think right now and if I had the inclination to post on ToS I would for the first time be posting "Crash possibly coming" but it would just be missed with the thousands of other certain imminent crashes.

There were people on ToS who STRed in 2002 ffs....Killer Bunny whatever his name was.FInancial adviser.

At least I had the excuse that I was a novice trader trying to earna crust.What we all got worng was the maount of the next generations future that govts would pee up a wall to try and stop the crash.But I eventually understood around 2015 and have managed the art of following the price action ever since.

I say this as someone who looks at eh oil/copper/gold price to deciede what sort of day I'll be having.

WHat I've mainly learned over the years is that hosuing markets turn like super tankers and I like a quicker turn that that

[sancho panza]

8 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

It must depend upon where you were at the time.  I was in London for the 1988 - 1996 property crash and it was massive and heavily affected people's lives.

I genuinely didn't notice the 2008 property "crash" in real life, probably because I wasn't living in London, and saw it as more of a minor correction then a crash when I looked at the stats.

1988 was the start of a genuine crash and was caused by the people who had borrowed and paid too much for houses in a rush to buy in London in the late eighties being vulnerable to any downturn in prices through negative equity and being forced to sell up.

In Cornwall now I look at prices to average earnings and think it's mental but there has been no rush into the market by large numbers of overstretched buyers and so the vulnerability isn't there.

There has maybe been a 20% froth in asking prices owing to people wanting a coastal lockdown retreat with a garden which will evaporate over the next few years because you no longer have those desperate buyers.

I don't however see any obvious mechanism for a crash (in Cornwall) and think that after that asking price correction house prices will continue to rise in nominal terms but IMHO below wage inflation so that there is a steady, but very slow, reduction in the average house prices / average local wages ratio.

That to me makes houses look like a poor investment but most people will just look at the rising nominal price and think smugly to themselves "You can't go wrong with bricks and mortar."

The 88-96 crash was brutal and affected a lot of people.The )* bailouts did their job,no matter what ToS says.

you only get crashes where's there's repos or a need to sell as you say

[tank]

On 05/07/2022 at 06:45, HousePriceMania said:

You think we don't all know that? 

 

Away back to mumsnet 

Oooh bitchy. 😀😀

[tank]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

The 88-96 crash was brutal and affected a lot of people.The )* bailouts did their job,no matter what ToS says.

you only get crashes where's there's repos or a need to sell as you say

They will never let sort of crash happen again, imo.

Not only will there be more bailouts but mortgage restbite periods for those temporarily unable to pay.

The world has changed since the 1980s and 90s, even 2008.  The belief that we still have a functioning democracy with political choice in this country went out with Blair and it's the same story everywhere else in the developed world. It's a world run by ultra liberal technocrats with the illusion of democratic choice kept afloat via the usual distractions e.g. wokery.

Edited July 5, 2022 by tank

[The Grey Man]

6 minutes ago, tank said:

They will never let sort of crash happen again, imo.

Not only will there be more bailouts but mortgage restbite periods for those temporarily unable to pay.

The world has changed since the 1980s and 90s, even 2008.  The belief that we still have a functioning democracy with political choice in this country went out with Blair and it's the same story everywhere else in the developed world. It's a world run by ultra liberal technocrats with the illusion of democratic choice e.g. vaucous distractions like wokery.

They all have a big fat foot in the game.

FFS the new Chanchellor. Much as the last Chancellor, rather a multi millioniare than a bigger millionaire.

Slave City.

I suspect any downturn in the near future will be accommodated by the formal arrival of big money in to property. The big money...government backed housing bennies.

And no doubt many elected members of Parliarment will have vested interests in.

The issue should be raised with the new Chancellor.

I look to other threads. For the greater good. The greater good. Good for whom?

 

[tank]

5 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Hands up who thinks Sunak knows something no one else bar us do ?

He'll know about as much as the Permanent Secretary to the Treasury wanted him to know.

Sunak is a high profile Tory politician who knows that Johnson is on the way out and is positioning himself for either a leadership run or a cabinet post.

It's called politics. 

Edited July 6, 2022 by tank

[JoeDavola]

4 hours ago, The Grey Man said:

They all have a big fat foot in the game.

FFS the new Chanchellor. Much as the last Chancellor, rather a multi millioniare than a bigger millionaire.

The new chancellor who has a 100 million pound property portfolio.

Talk about vested interest…

[JoeDavola]

5 hours ago, tank said:

They will never let sort of crash happen again, imo.

Not only will there be more bailouts but mortgage restbite periods for those temporarily unable to pay.

The world has changed since the 1980s and 90s, even 2008.  The belief that we still have a functioning democracy with political choice in this country went out with Blair and it's the same story everywhere else in the developed world. It's a world run by ultra liberal technocrats with the illusion of democratic choice kept afloat via the usual distractions e.g. wokery.

Reminder that there was a 50% drop in NI between 07 and 12, but I think the governments attitude has changed massively from even 10 years ago, as you say it’ll be bailouts all round spreading the cost of the mistakes of some across the many.

[Onsamui]

12 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

The only people I know who weren't screwed by the 90s crash were the people who didn't own houses.

I held off buying until 1996, bought holiday complex overlooking Porth Beach for £130K (sellers wanted £240K) then sold it just before 2007/8 crash for £750K, never looked back.  My In-laws bought a Hotel just before the BW crash, £67K+ a year interest, they sold at a loss in 2003, the only reason they did not go to the wall was due my husband working for them for practically nothing to stop them losing their home and making adjustments so that they could financially retire (just) at 65, one example.

Edited July 6, 2022 by Onsamui

[HousePriceMania]

Country in turmoil

Inflation destroying the country

Rogue PM

Appoint a chancellor with £100m VI in property and rightmove share price shoots up.

This is beyond parody now.