Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[Boon]

Except that in the past 12 years or so it would have been feasilble that a customer would have jumped from teaser rate to teaser rate, with the rate getting lower each time and/or releasing equity on the way.... that's almost half a mortgage life.

The game is now up, for now at least.

However this being said the markets are not totally equal in both directions - government are happy for prices to shoot up in a short period of time, and interest rates to plunge. In the other direction?

Proper price discovery in a crumbling market will be slowed down, either by government suppressing interest rates, or if they can't control that then making some props to prevent mortgage loans from going bad.

Edited October 10, 2022 by Boon

[Option5]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

When they are sold for the second time, yes.

I was actually wondering if HTB had distorted the market in favour of new houses?

Over new 440,000 properties bought using HTB.

 

[JohnnyB]

3 hours ago, Boon said:

Lewis pisses me off. I do actually think he has the brains to compute the situation but it wouldn't be very good for his popularity to start suggesting that people should take some hard medicine and have some suffering if we are to be stronger in future.

He will never suggest anything that would be beneficial but controversial... reforms to benefits, people reducing their leverage by selling up, people reducing energy usage, because one he does his reputation as some kind of vigilante is gone.

And also money pumping also disproportionately benefits him as a very rich man, I would imagine he has a very diversifed portfolio of investments including business and property.

So his standard act will be to play an overexcited ape on the sidelines, screaming indirectly for more free money to be dished out, while all the people love him for it and tout him for next chancellor/PM.

I think he's okay, just from a very low perspective of personal finances - the best short term actions (more handouts) are often at odds with actual long term solutions (execute landlords Cultural Revolution style).

It's the media who are a fault for treating him as some economic oracle, rather than just some guy with good advice on saving on everyday bills and best savings accounts.

With the mortgage rises, everyone should have been stress tested to be able to cover higher rates than we are even at at the moment. If they can't afford it they either lied, need to cut back in other areas or sell and downsize.

3 hours ago, Boon said:

Lewis pisses me off. I do actually think he has the brains to compute the situation but it wouldn't be very good for his popularity to start suggesting that people should take some hard medicine and have some suffering if we are to be stronger in future.

He will never suggest anything that would be beneficial but controversial... reforms to benefits, people reducing their leverage by selling up, people reducing energy usage, because one he does his reputation as some kind of vigilante is gone.

And also money pumping also disproportionately benefits him as a very rich man, I would imagine he has a very diversifed portfolio of investments including business and property.

So his standard act will be to play an overexcited ape on the sidelines, screaming indirectly for more free money to be dished out, while all the people love him for it and tout him for next chancellor/PM.

I think he's okay, just from a very low perspective of personal finances - the best short term actions (more handouts) are often at odds with actual long term solutions (execute landlords Cultural Revolution style).

It's the media who are a fault for treating him as some economic oracle, rather than just some guy with good advice on saving on everyday bills and best savings accounts.

With the mortgage rises, everyone should have been stress tested to be able to cover higher rates than we are even at at the moment. If they can't afford it they either lied, need to cut back in other areas or sell and downsize.

[HousePriceMania]

On 11/12/2020 at 14:43, haroldshand said:

 

Maybe it really is different this time?

[The Bear of Doom]

Since March last year, I've been keeping a log of the number of houses listed in RM, along with new listings and reductions on a per day basis in several areas that I am interested in.  Over the last couple of weeks there has been a slight increase in the number of reductions, and also more houses coming back on the market after going SSTC. Interestingly, many of these relists from the last couple of weeks had gone SSTC in the April/May period so this could be a sign of mortgages offers falling through due to the recent increase in base rate. 

[Long time lurking]

 

[Ina]

Massive feedback from my colleagues in New Build and Residential Property is that we are on the cusp of a serious turn in the market.  Everyone is extremely twitchy.  Estate Agents are very nervous.   Buyers are panicking about mortgages being pulled and sellers are getting very aggressive about delays in the conveyancing process in case things really go tits up.  My firm hired a top economist last week to brief the management team which is unheard of in my career.  We’ve not seen a dramatic drop yet in new instructions however everyone is anticipating it very soon.  I’ll keep you posted as firms are obsessed with the number of new files per month.

[Boon]

Nice
Seen some chunky reductions on resale new builds, maybe individuals getting twitchy.

Woolwich seems to fit the bill for an area that will be heavily hit - lots of flats, expensive, crap area. 

This came on today, seems to have broken the £400k mark for 2 beds. Looking at the sold prices, that takes it all the way back to 2015 prices. The poor sod that bought at peak might be in some trouble.

Could be a few people that suffer a double bumming in some way, having to remortgage a massive mortgage at much higher rates, on a place that is now c.£100k less than what you paid for it.

 

[AWW]

I've got friends who lost £50k on a flat, a conversion at that, not some new build with cladding issues, in London, from 2017 to 2020.

Prices have been coming down around here for a long time. Another 30% would see them cut in half from peak, and see us back to 2010 prices. Which is about what current mortgage rates and the unwind of the post-GFC London/SE bubble-on-a-bubble both suggest will happen. But which everyone who lives here thinks is completely impossible.

Edited October 10, 2022 by AWW

[One percent]

1 minute ago, AWW said:

I've got friends who lost £50k on a flat, a conversion at that, not some new build with cladding issues, in London, from 2017 to 2020.

Prices have been coming down around here for a long time. Another 30% would see them cut in half from peak, and see us back to 2010 prices. Which is about what current mortgage rates and the unwind of the post-GFC London/SE bubble-on-a-bubble both suggest will happen. But which everyone who lives here thinks is completely impossible.

London is finished. There are fewer well paid jobs, it’s been turned into a turd world shithole and any form of transport in the city is either a massive pain in the arse, eye wateringly expensive or both. 

[AWW]

8 minutes ago, One percent said:

London is finished. There are fewer well paid jobs, it’s been turned into a turd world shithole and any form of transport in the city is either a massive pain in the arse, eye wateringly expensive or both. 

There are shitloads of well-paid jobs. I could get you one tomorrow if you had the right skills (maybe you do?) The transport's fine, far better than anywhere else in the UK, assuming you want to get in and out (oo-er) rather than around the burbs.

Edited October 10, 2022 by AWW

[One percent]

11 minutes ago, AWW said:

There are shitloads of well-paid jobs. I could get you one tomorrow if you had the right skills (maybe you do?) The transport's fine, far better than anywhere else in the UK, assuming you want to get in and out (oo-er) rather than around the burbs.

Well paid in comparison to the cost of living there?  I don’t think so. Transport is very expensive (thank you Khan). The stupid charge scheme has been moved to the north and south circs, cutting communities in half (thank you Khan).  Traveling on public transport is dirty, overcrowded and unsafe. It’s like down town Mogadishu.  

[Lipid]

9 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

The emergency plan should be to distribute .gov leaflets "how to sell your arse", along with condoms!

Doug Stanhope -"Keynesian Economic Theory as Applied to Private Sector Independent Contracting"

 

Edited October 10, 2022 by Lipid
Added description as the preview isn't showing

[Wight Flight]

41 minutes ago, One percent said:

London is finished. There are fewer well paid jobs, it’s been turned into a turd world shithole and any form of transport in the city is either a massive pain in the arse, eye wateringly expensive or both. 

I thought the buses in London were rather cheap?

[AWW]

24 minutes ago, One percent said:

Well paid in comparison to the cost of living there?  I don’t think so. Transport is very expensive (thank you Khan). The stupid charge scheme has been moved to the north and south circs, cutting communities in half (thank you Khan).  Traveling on public transport is dirty, overcrowded and unsafe. It’s like down town Mogadishu.  

Yes. Anyone who's half decent at their job can earn 6 figures plus bonus by the time they're in their late 20s.

Whenever my friends and family visit from up north, they marvel at how cheap it is to get around.

I live a couple of miles outside the north circ. I'll tell you what cuts communities in two.  It's not the ULEZ.  It's the fucking massive dual/triple carriageway.

There's a lot of bollocks talked about London by people who don't live here.

[Innkeeper]

35 minutes ago, One percent said:

Well paid in comparison to the cost of living there?  I don’t think so. Transport is very expensive (thank you Khan). The stupid charge scheme has been moved to the north and south circs, cutting communities in half (thank you Khan).  Traveling on public transport is dirty, overcrowded and unsafe. It’s like down town Mogadishu.  

You must be using a part of the system I’ve not seen.  I don’t encounter any of those things when I travel round London.  All those things were true in the 1970s - completely different now.

[Democorruptcy]

26 minutes ago, AWW said:

There's a lot of bollocks talked about London by people who don't live here.

@One percent!!

[One percent]

50 minutes ago, AWW said:

Yes. Anyone who's half decent at their job can earn 6 figures plus bonus by the time they're in their late 20s.

Whenever my friends and family visit from up north, they marvel at how cheap it is to get around.

I live a couple of miles outside the north circ. I'll tell you what cuts communities in two.  It's not the ULEZ.  It's the fucking massive dual/triple carriageway.

There's a lot of bollocks talked about London by people who don't live here.

I speny my whole wotking life there. My kids still live there.  

[AWW]

40 minutes ago, One percent said:

I speny my whole wotking life there. My kids still live there.  

 

I'd love to know where you moved to that had better public transport. Did you leave the country?

I think Khan's a useless, virtue-signalling cunt too, but it's just not true that absolutely everything he's responsible for is crap.

[sancho panza]

bit late today but up across the board

Leicestershire county

Date         Inventory    Inv incl SSTC     detached    semi     terraced      flats     bungalows

14/8/22      3950

2/9/22        4210

12/9/22     4354

19/9/22     4501

26/9/22    4585          10359                                

3/10/22    4674          10361             1776              1030         727             532          485

10/10/22  4885          10416             1822              1077          774            556         520             

[leonardratso]

sorry, how do you do that reveal thing? i cant see anywhere that lets yo apply it.

Not that i have any use for it but just cant see it anywhere. Is it tags?

aabbcc

Edited October 10, 2022 by leonardratso

[leonardratso]

ah its ok, i see it now, so wrap in spoiler /spoller with square beackets around them. Cool.

SPOILT

Edited October 10, 2022 by leonardratso

[HousePriceMania]

7 hours ago, sancho panza said:

bit late today but up across the board

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Leicestershire county

Date         Inventory    Inv incl SSTC     detached    semi     terraced      flats     bungalows

14/8/22      3950

2/9/22        4210

12/9/22     4354

19/9/22     4501

26/9/22    4585          10359                                

3/10/22    4674          10361             1776              1030         727             532          485

10/10/22  4885          10416             1822              1077          774            556         520             

 

Property lion say a 1150 per day increase in listings over the last day period and a near 0.5% drop in prices

 

Could be the start of the rush to sell which could turn into panic 

[Democorruptcy]

SONIA 2yr swap rate is up from yesterday now 5.358%, mortgage rate is that plus markup

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

28 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

SONIA 2yr swap rate is up from yesterday now 5.358%, mortgage rate is that plus markup

 

 

Hi @Democorruptcy what website do you get that info from ?