Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Pip321]

30 minutes ago, planit said:

We are pawns in the game being played. The western leaders have initiated a media and propaganda war against Russia to try to put as much pressure on Putin as possible.*

Using the financial system (including shares) they have tried to collapse the Russian banks causing bank runs. 

The plan is to make the Russians feel their lives as they knew them are over, Ruble collapses, no flights etc etc. All this to isolate Putin and increase the chances of him making a deal today in the talks.

If this doesn't work (I think Putin was expecting this) and it's not over quickly, we have a problem as these sanctions will very quickly spill over to the energy situation. This then becomes a big own-goal for the West so Putin will be trying to draw this out and wait.

I have no idea what will happen but the amount of shit flying around on Twatter, Media and BB's is insane. 

I am calling peak FUD

 

* 50 years ago Putin would have more control of the information the population had access to. Now with social media etc the spread is almost instant and uncontrollable.

Interesting to see how this plays out but so far mission accomplished. ie The Fed should be able to hold interest rates (phew, what with all that debt), the dollar is up and no one is talking about parties at Downing Street.

Still feels to me that the West poked a 'rabid mad bear' (I won't defend Putin) for lots of reasons because financially they couldn't afford not to. 

West gathering together better than I thought.....Putin will be under pressure which could be even more dangerous. 

[reformed nice guy]

36 minutes ago, planit said:

We are pawns in the game being played. The western leaders have initiated a media and propaganda war against Russia to try to put as much pressure on Putin as possible.*

Using the financial system (including shares) they have tried to collapse the Russian banks causing bank runs. 

The plan is to make the Russians feel their lives as they knew them are over, Ruble collapses, no flights etc etc. All this to isolate Putin and increase the chances of him making a deal today in the talks.

If this doesn't work (I think Putin was expecting this) and it's not over quickly, we have a problem as these sanctions will very quickly spill over to the energy situation. This then becomes a big own-goal for the West so Putin will be trying to draw this out and wait.

I have no idea what will happen but the amount of shit flying around on Twatter, Media and BB's is insane. 

I am calling peak FUD

 

* 50 years ago Putin would have more control of the information the population had access to. Now with social media etc the spread is almost instant and uncontrollable.

We may be in an existential crisis for the West. We are weaponising the financial system but if it does not work then what next? I imagine that India, China, Brazil etc will be looking on with grave concern and Chinas "belt & road", which is effectively a Bretton Wood system alternative, becomes a lot more attractive.

If China is able to become the sole buyer of Russian oil and gas then they have overcome their energy problem. I imagine Russian diplomats in India will be working hard to keep them as a buyer so there is a modicum of competition.

I will be topping up my diesel, buying another tank of gas and chitting some more potatoes!

 

[JMD]

14 minutes ago, steppensheep said:

That's mesmerizing. I keep thinking, surely it's not going to happen again!

Yep, next time (this time) it will be different!?

[Democorruptcy]

Yandex's price gone back 10 years!

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/y/yandex-nv-usd0.01-a/company-information

 

 

[Sidd]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/world/1566422/Russia-Pakistan-gas-pipeline-route-Putin-evg/amp

What's your take on this @Cattle Prod?

[DurhamBorn]

I bought some more Blackrock Latin America today.On likely currency flows i think Latin America should start to see relative strength ,but also their exports increase.I nearly bought Tenaris SA,iv a few ,but they went up from first two ladders and was thinking of adding even though up 20%,but didnt.They could be big winners from new LNG plants in Europe etc. (they make gas pipes). 

 

 

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Green Devil said:

Ive probably missed something, but a lot of you all seem to be holding russian gas oil etc companies. Was there a reason for this? Purely the dividend yield? Was this a recommendation of the thread earlier or are you just scalping the swings?

My personal macro saw China as too risky so I stayed well away. At same time I thought Russia might 'play coy, and would skillfully straddle' both China and the West (nb I'm not familiar with investor jargon, can you tell?!). Anyway I'm a long term buy and hold investor so I bought some Russian energy and miner stocks... However, looks like I got it wrong, and instead Russia and China may increasingly become locked into an exclusively 'cosy trade block embrace'(!?) for the foreseeable. 

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

If the war is over soon it could go all 🚀🌛. More defence spending so more money printing.

 

I hope everyone bought these in December....

 

Market Summary > BAE Systems plc

718.83 GBX+164.23 (29.61%)year to date

28 Feb, 13:10 GMT • Disclaimer

LON: BA

 

 

[WICAO]

Wow, a lot of buying, selling and chatter on this thread recently.

Full disclosure: I've bought and sold precisely £0 worth of anything.  Overall wealth down around 3.9% since the start of the year when measured in £'s.  Sleeping soundly except for knowing that people on both sides of the fence are needlessly dying.  A terrible set of circumstances.

[Harley]

Poly pah!  Topped up the other one!  Massive div coming, daily wants up and there's a gap to fill.  This time next month we'll be rich says Del me advisor.  Best do more than just your own research for this one!  Talking of gaps to fill, here's one of our sweeties showing how it's done....

[HousePriceMania]

1 minute ago, Harley said:

Poly pah!  Topped up the other one!  Massive div coming, daily wants up and there's a gap to fill.  This time next month we'll be rich says Del me advisor.  Best do more than just your own research for this one!  Talking of gaps to fill, here's one of our sweeties showing how it's done....

That middle one looks like the trajectory of a Russian tank shell.

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

I hope everyone bought these in December....

 

Market Summary > BAE Systems plc

718.83 GBX+164.23 (29.61%)year to date

28 Feb, 13:10 GMT • Disclaimer

LON: BA

 

 

 

[Bobthebuilder]

I bought some more Henderson far east income today.

Set my alarm clock early this morning just in case with BP. Didn't sell any, you got that one spot on DB.

[WICAO]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

I've put in a buy order for POLY at 350 with Interactive Brokers, risking £200.  I feel like a desperado up the bookies trying to win his money back.

So now this thread is about gambling...

Does anybody know where there's a thread about credit deflation and the subsequent reflation...

I'll get my coat...

[Loki]

Possibility of a sudden stratospheric warming event leading to cold snaps - gas, Russia, etc

https://electroverse.net/ssw-underway-christchurch-cold-and-wet-feb-midwest-and-ne-winter-to-extend-into-march/

[leonardratso]

3 minutes ago, WICAO said:

So now this thread is about gambling...

Does anybody know where there's a thread about credit deflation and the subsequent reflation...

I'll get my coat...

dont bother, happens everytime theres some major event, as soon as it blows over and everyone has made+2000% (more like lost 50-100% or broken even on a punt), then it will die as quickly as it rose.

You do see this a lot on a lot of forums, when the going is good then everyones falling over themselves to post and big it up, hit a down patch or it falls apart and the posters disappear like flies on shit where a magpies just shown up to peck it.

[Democorruptcy]

57 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

We may be in an existential crisis for the West. We are weaponising the financial system but if it does not work then what next? I imagine that India, China, Brazil etc will be looking on with grave concern and Chinas "belt & road", which is effectively a Bretton Wood system alternative, becomes a lot more attractive.

If China is able to become the sole buyer of Russian oil and gas then they have overcome their energy problem. I imagine Russian diplomats in India will be working hard to keep them as a buyer so there is a modicum of competition.

I will be topping up my diesel, buying another tank of gas and chitting some more potatoes!

 

China and India abstained on the UN resolution deploring Russia. They have enough people to need a bit of O & G.

[Lightscribe]

21 minutes ago, WICAO said:

So now this thread is about gambling...

Does anybody know where there's a thread about credit deflation and the subsequent reflation...

I'll get my coat...

It’s not about gambling. WICAO, I have all the respect for you (after following you from the TOS days) you effectively won with your strategy. I congratulate you for that and wish you all the best for the future.

We thought there would be an economic levelling up on TOS but we we’re wrong. However house prices were absolutely a piss in the ocean with what we are experiencing now. 

At this stage we’ll be lucky for a reflation at all, let alone the economy surviving. 

[M S E Refugee]

I was going to buy more Poly to bring my £15.10 average down.

Couldn't bring myself to buy anymore so I bought more Henderson High Income instead.

[HousePriceMania]

22 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

I have a 585 average so you did better than me. If only RR can catch up, those jets need those engines.

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I bought some more Henderson far east income today.

Set my alarm clock early this morning just in case with BP. Didn't sell any, you got that one spot on DB.

Id of bought Henderson,but full up,so Latin America.There is a big question over BPs management though.BP is raking in cash,obvious they would be doing big buybacks today to soak some selling away.I finished fixing the shed roof,i ran out of felt,then cleared bushes from the back fence,building a lovely frame to plant some clematis.

[WICAO]

1 minute ago, Lightscribe said:

It’s not about gambling. WICAO, I have all the respect for you (after following you from the TOS days) you effectively won with your strategy. I congratulate you for that and wish you all the best for the future.

We thought there would be an economic levelling up on TOS but we we’re wrong. However house prices were absolutely a piss in the ocean to what we’re experiencing now. 

At this stage we’ll be lucky for a reflation at all, let alone the economy surviving. 

Buying a single share (or two) based on "1%" of the information that those who matter know sounds like gambling to me.

I'm going to stay heavily diversified, stay the course, and bank on there being enough of an economy left globally for it not too get much worse, if at all, than history.  It's been pretty bad in the past as well.

If the global economy doesn't survive then no amount of POLY or any other share is going to save me.  Instead I should some £'s to have built a bunker and stored plenty of water, guns, beans and antibiotics.  I hope I've backed the right horse.

[Lightscribe]

2 minutes ago, WICAO said:

Buying a single share (or two) based on "1%" of the information that those who matter know sounds like gambling to me.

I'm going to stay heavily diversified, stay the course, and bank on there being enough of an economy left globally for it not too get much worse, if at all, than history.  It's been pretty bad in the past as well.

If the global economy doesn't survive then no amount of POLY or any other share is going to save me.  Instead I should some £'s to have built a bunker and stored plenty of water, guns, beans and antibiotics.  I hope I've backed the right horse.

I’ve prepared for both. 

[Hancock]

23 minutes ago, WICAO said:

So now this thread is about gambling...

Does anybody know where there's a thread about credit deflation and the subsequent reflation...

I'll get my coat...

With the exception of DurhamBorn and a few others who seem to know what they're doing, that's exactly what it's turned into!

[WICAO]

Just now, Lightscribe said:

I’ve done both. 

Nice job.

I'm banking on most of the world surviving but if it doesn't can you PM me the address of your bunker?  I'm not sure what I have to offer in return though other than semi-intelligent conversation.