Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[Long time lurking]

4 minutes ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

with 400w panels was tempted

They grow them in fields down way.i`m always tempted to PYO 

[Noallegiance]

5 minutes ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

Saw one of those secondhand with 400w panels was tempted but the model has high inverter loss. Good short high bursts like cooking so I'd need a 2nd for fridges etc. 

And they are expensive.

I've got an Ecoflow portable solar panel and mini station. Yeah it was a high number of £shit, but I swapped £shit900 for energy backup in the increasing liklihood of stupid, so I don't consider it expensive.

[sancho panza]

33 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Gold's approaching $1900!

Got some 100% losses looming on some goldie calls next friday.

Was gonna reload them fri night,alongsdie taking profits in newcrest and then ended up having to cook dinner,go round and clear one of my Mums(aka the CEO) friends drives/front garden paths and tehn kids bath time.Mrs P too posh to push on a friday night.

Bt the time leicesters warren booffeh  had finally quelled the revolt in the 5&6 year old bedroom, and was ready to pull the trigger the marekts had shut.

I look at these talking heads on youtube and they haven't got a f##king clue what real pressure is.

 

In otehr news check this out

[DurhamBorn]

Remember,its the Feds job to deal with it,like it or not,its why they exist.Corrupt yes,against the little man,yes,but thats the system.Its paid for in more inflation.In simple terms in the US Verizon will get to put its prices up 2% more than it would of been able to.Its dis-inflation/deflation/reflation.Thats all.(Stagflation is a thing,but its more an experience than an actual)

[Noallegiance]

Some move for first thing Sunday night

[Long time lurking]

 

[Long time lurking]

3 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Some move for first thing Sunday night

What time is it in India ? 

[Noallegiance]

Just now, Long time lurking said:

What time is it in India ? 

Naan o'clock?

[darkmarket]

Like a suicide bomb attack on the Dollar by Silicon Valley.

Let the poors eat bugs.

[Long time lurking]

 

[Long time lurking]

2 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Naan o'clock?

Breakfast time then

[sancho panza]

@Castlevania

kudos to CV for highlighting the kitchen sinking ref Harbour energy who look to have buried 5 years bad news in this years full year results

for thspe that dont know Dan Neidle os the man who showed has 3.7mn views on former chancellor Nadhim Zadahwis tax avoidance schemes.

 

[Long time lurking]

 

[Long time lurking]

Feck that`s a large list 

 

[reformed nice guy]

Just now, Long time lurking said:

 

Feds statement to Silicon Valley Bank equity holders, bond holders and HNW depositors:

[Lightscribe]

 

BTC sharp move upwards.

[Noallegiance]

 

[Bobthebuilder]

@Long time lurking

Fuck me, you have got posting diarrhoea at the moment, shut the fuck up for five fucking minutes man. 

[Axeman123]

Screwing SVBs bondholders (deservedly , don't get me wrong) must send a hell of a chill through interbank lending and so on. Credit to tighten massively in response? Similar for shareholders, no bank will be able to raise a penny against its own equity now IMO.

[JMD]

10 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Have you ever read "guns, germs, and steel"? That author makes a very good case for why the west got such a headstart on other continents. There is no inherrent superiority IMO, just the fading advantage of a headstart on industrialisation.

It's a good book that you mention. However I think culture has much more to do with it. Historically and even today culture  separates people. Culture is driven by belief systems, shared common experiences, institutions, physical geography/security concerns.

And in terms of the West having that perceived 'headstart' - how did that initial advantage maintain itself over literally the previous 1000 years? I think it's important to recognise that China, Japan, Russia and the Middle East all chose to isolate themselves for very large periods of their history (mainly for cultural reasons). In fact all of them did have periods where they flourished, but this was typically during times of openess and trade with the West. But at other times when they closed their societies off, they stagnated. China is perhaps the best example of this happening under different dynasties, and for example I don't think it a coincidence that during its recent globalisation phase it rapidly progressed? 

I am not glibly attempting to say the West is best. But I am arguing that the culture the West adopted/developed is/was the best.... If I were to pick a 'sweet spot' for the West I'd point to the last quarter of the twentieth century, where our tech/social progress was at its height and geopolitically the potential to engage politically with Russia and China was possible. Tragically the West took the easy route and chose to merely financialize its economy, which not only had the effect of bankrupting it's monetary system, but also hollowed out its social and moral systems too. 

Edited March 13, 2023 by JMD

[Starsend]

Apparently another decent sized bank just went pop.

I'm quite excited about tomorrow.

Wot a laff.

[Lightscribe]

48 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

 

This guy is right. The Fed has basically taken $25b in toxic assets (underwater treasuries) and will bail out $25bn (to not cause further contagion) on the basis that those IOUs will in the future will be worth $25bn. That money is essentially $25bn of QE which is essentially inflationary.

Basically the Fed is giving the signal to reckless lending by banks (high risk startups, no hedging etc) is a win-win. All the gain and no loss.

Edited March 13, 2023 by Lightscribe

[Axeman123]

16 minutes ago, JMD said:

And in terms of the West having that perceived 'headstart' - how did that initial advantage maintain itself over literally the previous 1000 years?

A very good post, I certainly see the book as a jumping off point rather than having a cohesive theory of everything.

IMO: The initial headstart (agriculture) enabled the development of more complex societal structures and non-food-production specialists etc, which in turn produced a higher functioning culture. This process then compounded as each new layer of greater sophistication spawned ever an higher functioning culture, meaning it became a positive feedback loop. The reason we have started to stagnate is simply that we have stalled in taking on more demanding societal structures, that would demand an even higher functioning culture, while all around us other groups are catching up. This is actually why humans should strive to colonise planets etc, as the current fuckery could not stand under that pressure and with such high costs for failures of leadership.

[Pip321]

1 hour ago, Long time lurking said:

I will piss myself if they all rock up to withdraw it 

To be fair, if I had just £1k on deposit in SV bank….I wouldn’t by 9:01am tomorrow. 

[Axeman123]

4 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Basically the Fed is giving the signal to reckless lending by banks (high risk startups, no hedging etc) is a win-win. All the gain and no loss.

The shareholders get wiped out, and (IMO) the leadership may be getting bonuses etc clawed back. Bondholders of the failed institution also take it in the arse, and that is where accountability should lie.

This wasn't a true bailout, although it does send a message "bank wherever" to depositors, and a price will have to be paid by all of us in the long term for that.