Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[spygirl]

8 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

 

They have already chosen sides ,and it`s not with the US that is a fact and that is exactly why they are organising and have been for the best part of three years or more when everyone was screaming about the coof all the middle east were in Moscow 

As for Putin ,Medvedve is up next ,that is the last thing the west needs now 

Theres two types of country in the world -

Ones where people paddle in a rubber or cling under a truck to get to.

And ones where people paddle in a rubber or cling under a truck to get away from.

Edited March 12, 2023 by spygirl

[Loki]

7 minutes ago, darkmarket said:

I'm glad you mentioned the endemic obesity by the way, all the more reason the war on smoking should be put to an end.

More to do with the huge amounts of PUFA and refined modern dwarf wheat we eat now.  Well not me obviously

[marceau]

20 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

I already made it up thread 

 

Must have missed it. If you're talking about USD/UST, so what?  It's just different points of the same process. If you want to go to the earliest point, it's Deng shaking hands with Jimmy Carter, or Nixon getting on a plane.

It doesn't change the fact that the CN economy could not have grown to the extent it did without the Fed. Breaking from the US framework dramatically changes their model - a leap into the unknown.

[Long time lurking]

19 minutes ago, marceau said:

 

It doesn't change the fact that the CN economy could not have grown to the extent it did without the Fed. Breaking from the US framework dramatically changes their model - a leap into the unknown.

My whole point was and still is they never used the FED s frame work internally and that`s what enabled them to grow as quick as they have just like japan did 1945-1980ish when the Fed step in and implement there system the same thing happen in the USA under James Madison's reign who used the same economic model (but they had no need of Chinas twin banking system back then) but it was the Rothchild's that stepped in via the US civil war and put an end to that model/system

They would not have achieved what they achieved in the time they did  if they used the Feds frame work internally, they had no choice but to use it externally 

What the BRICS are trying to do is not about growth in China it`s about freeing the rest of the world from the FED`s hegemony  along with themselves ,which if successful will be the detriment to the west as the need for their currency will fall dramatically ,the £$ euros will all be heading to where they come from ,this is whats playing a huge pert in the inflation we are already seeing ,and they have only just started 

All this started 5-6 years ago 

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

What do people think will happen to UK rates?  Continue to follow the might USD/Fed or continue higher to reflect the increased risk of GBP?

Depends on the ECB IMO. They seem far behind the curve and seem set for 2-3 50bps ones, even if the Fed pauses IMO. The interesting thing (that is totally off the radar so far) is what is going on in EU banks. Many of them will likely have bought negtive yielding bonds for example...

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Axeman123 said:

Depends on the ECB IMO. They seem far behind the curve and seem set for 2-3 50bps ones, even if the Fed pauses IMO. The interesting thing (that is totally off the radar so far) is what is going on in EU banks. Many of them will likely have bought negtive yielding bonds for example...

Do you think that would lead to higher rates here and in Europe, encouraging foreign money to come here for a return, thus helping lower DXY until the bust as per Dave Hunter

[Long time lurking]

Well worth the time for anyone interested ,as with all things  "confidential" you see in the press i think you have to regard them as more of a statement 

 

[Axeman123]

Just now, Loki said:

Do you think that would lead to higher rates here and in Europe, encouraging foreign money to come here for a return, thus helping lower DXY until the bust as per Dave Hunter

Logically yes, if the ECB keeps raising to defend their currency (which is likely their best lever for energy and commodity inflation) and the BoE aren't stupid enough to pause in that scenario.

DXY looks to have peaked (uninformed opinion on my part), even with the most hawkish tone in decades from Powell early in the week it only managed a lower high (almost 10% down compared to the October peak too).

[marceau]

24 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

My whole point was and still is they never used the FED s frame work internally and that`s what enabled them to grow as quick as they have just like japan did 1945-1980ish when the Fed step in and implement there system the same thing happen in the USA under James Madison's reign who used the same economic model (but they had no need of Chinas twin banking system back then) but it was the Rothchild's that stepped in via the US civil war and put an end to that model/system

They would not have achieved what they achieved in the time they did  if they used the Feds frame work internally, they had no choice but to use it externally 

What the BRICS are trying to do is not about growth in China it`s about freeing the rest of the world from the FED`s hegemony  along with themselves ,which if successful will be the detriment to the west as the need for their currency will fall dramatically ,the £$ euros will all be heading to where they come from ,this is whats playing a huge pert in the inflation we are already seeing ,and they have only just started 

All this started 5-6 years ago 

I don't believe the internals are a significant factor, so we'll have to agree to disagree. It's easy to say a particular CB system serves it's nation well when you're a favored part of a long standing global system. Fed had all the responsibility and all the risk. We'll see how PBC fares when it's calling the shots and assuming the risk for other nations as well as itself. I'll believe the hype when it's had to deal with a black swan and those other nations are still following the system afterwards. 

All the Rothschilds/Madison stuff is goldbuggery, not for me.

Edited March 12, 2023 by marceau

[Long time lurking]

9 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Depends on the ECB IMO. They seem far behind the curve and seem set for 2-3 50bps ones, even if the Fed pauses IMO. The interesting thing (that is totally off the radar so far) is what is going on in EU banks. Many of them will likely have bought negtive yielding bonds for example...

You need to look at the revers REPO auctions for that data ,the FED`s have slowed down a lot of late ,this has kept demand up for sure ,pension companies selling the low rate ones then buying higher yielding ones it keeps those institutions viable but it increases the FED`s liabilities 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Axeman123 said:

Logically yes, if the ECB keeps raising to defend their currency (which is likely their best lever for energy and commodity inflation) and the BoE aren't stupid enough to pause in that scenario.

DXY looks to have peaked (uninformed opinion on my part), even with the most hawkish tone in decades from Powell early in the week it only managed a lower high (almost 10% down compared to the October peak too).

I was surprised by DXY too, kept looking at it thinking any day now we'll be back at 110+  big moves coming soon (Either direction)  this crabbing nonsense is over

[Axeman123]

Just now, Loki said:

I was surprised by DXY too, kept looking at it thinking any day now we'll be back at 110+  big moves coming soon (Either direction)  this crabbing nonsense is over

Gold too, considering how extreme the hawkishness was it barely even reacted to the downside. I predict people will be talking in future about how obvious the DXY down & PMs up signposting was this week gone.

(Not financial advice)

[Long time lurking]

31 minutes ago, marceau said:

I don't believe the internals are a significant factor, so we'll have to agree to disagree.

You have to work why and how it works and how it`s somewhat isolated from outside influences 

Now when was the last time you heard the UK US etc say we are going to target one sector of the economy with huge amounts of government funding ? ( see the current kerfuffle that the USD inflation reduction act has caused in Europe)

This is what China does all the time they target a sector they determine as essential for there economy to grow ( two weeks ago they announced semiconductors were essential ) ,they then fund multiple entities to provide that target ,this is socialist economic targeted investment ,but what comes next is capitalism they simply let those entities fight it out, (competition breeds innovation and efficiency) eventually you have winners and losers the loser go to the wall (this is when the west screams they are fucked ) but in reality it was a factored in cost ,this is all done ultimately via there central banking system 

As for the Rothchild's /Madison it`s there in the history books ,he simply printed money when the economy needed it then withdrew it when it overheated ,the founding fathers of the US swore they would never allow the English central banking model into the USA that`s why the fed was only created in 1914 ish ,they had a "Independent" central bank for a short period prior but the government took back control of the countries money supply until the current FED was created 

Basically Chinas central bank is government controlled just like Madison`s 

 

Edited March 12, 2023 by Long time lurking

[Loki]

 

[Long time lurking]

31 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Gold too, considering how extreme the hawkishness was it barely even reacted to the downside. I predict people will be talking in future about how obvious the DXY down & PMs up signposting was this week gone.

(Not financial advice)

Look at what the exchange rates were in 2010ish ? $1.70 -£ from the lows we seen recently almost parity ,just think what that means to gold prices if it went that way and you bought at todays exchange rate ,you would be looking at $2500+ just to break even 

Edit i should add on a buying oz for oz scale 

Edited March 12, 2023 by Long time lurking

[Loki]

16 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

Look at what the exchange rates were in 2010ish ? $1.70 -£ from the lows we seen recently almost parity ,just think what that means to gold prices if it went that way and you bought at todays exchange rate ,you would be looking at $2500+ just to break even 

Edit i should add on a buying oz for oz scale 

I don't follow what you mean... although David H sees it going to $2500 - $3000 this time round

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, Loki said:

What do people think will happen to UK rates?  Continue to follow the might USD/Fed or continue higher to reflect the increased risk of GBP?

UK is totally fucked either way. When property owning MPs are suppressing mortgage rates, introducing scams to push more people into debt, paying index linked benefits to anyone in the world, buying votes with index linked pension payments, ignoring democracy, silencing dissenting voices, bailing out some woman who's done a menopause app while you can't drive down a street without writing your car off hitting a fucking pot hole, controlling the Plebs Via a money saving expert who encourages people to save money on anything other than the thing he's invested in... the game is up.

 

We are kidding ourselves if we think the UK as was is ever coming back. It's prep time for When the unstoppable collapse comes.

Edited March 12, 2023 by HousePriceMania

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

UK is totally fucked either way. When property owning MPs are suppressing mortgage rates, introducing scams to push more people into debt, paying index linked benefits to anyone in the world, buying votes with index linked pension payments, ignoring democracy, silencing dissenting voices, bailing out some woman who's done a menopause app while you can't drive down a street without writing your car off hitting a fucking pot hole, controlling the Plebs Via a money saving expert who encourages people to save money on anything other than the thing he's invested in... the game is up.

 

We are kidding ourselves if we think the UK as was is ever coming back. It's prep time for When the unstoppable collapse comes.

Oh yeah for us plebs it's fucked, I was just talking about (Possibly) somewhere to park international money for a better return.  Two different worlds...

 

[HousePriceMania]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

Oh yeah for us plebs it's fucked, I was just talking about (Possibly) somewhere to park international money for a better return.  Two different worlds...

 

The slaver only looses when the slaves turn 

[Loki]

Just now, HousePriceMania said:

The slaver only looses when the slaves turn 

It's not like in the movies

Nope, not even that one

A vision of the future, Winston, is a human(oid), licking a boot, forever

[HousePriceMania]

, suck it up or revolt.

 

Can't see past sunak being shoe horned into power because they knew what was in the pipeline.

Was gonna wait will oct to buy a house, will see what happens this week but we'd be daft to wait now.

It's to hyperinflation and beyond now IMHO

 

I hope I am wrong of course but can't see past full on systematic collapse 

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

, suck it up or revolt.

 

Can't see past sunak being shoe horned into power because they knew what was in the pipeline.

Was gonna wait will oct to buy a house, will see what happens this week but we'd be daft to wait now.

It's to hyperinflation and beyond now IMHO

 

I hope I am wrong of course but can't see past full on systematic collapse 

Surely you want to be as liquid as possible in inflation-protecting assets?

[Long time lurking]

6 minutes ago, Loki said:

I don't follow what you mean... although David H sees it going to $2500 - $3000 this time round

I can se why it was a shit way of getting across what i meant the easiest way is to say gold was at it`s highest price ever in £ terms but you could not say that for it in $ terms

 

 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Long time lurking said:

I can se why it was a shit way of getting across what i meant the easiest way is to say gold was at it`s highest price ever in £ terms but you could not say that for it in $ terms

 

 

Right I see what you mean.   So taking into account DH forecast and the previous high looks like a multi decade "double top"

[Long time lurking]

2 hours ago, spygirl said:

Theres two types of country in the world -

Ones where people paddle in a rubber or cling under a truck to get to.

And ones where people paddle in a rubber or cling under a truck to get away from.

Yep and the one they are paddling to is a busted flush because of what made them paddle to it for 

Whats so hard to understand