Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[Long time lurking]

5 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Thats just the daft Swissy banks whove blown themselves up.

You are making the daft assumption that Chinks, Russian, Saudis , Brazilians are like us, ir the US or Germany.

They are not.

They are an uncoordinated cluster fuck of self interest and backstabbing.

Seriously.

 

You have simply not been paying attention to whats been going on since late 2019/ 2020 if not much longer 

just look at the rush of middle eastern countries leaders flocking to Moscow around that time and have been doing so ever since just look at whats happening in the middle east as in peace is suddenly breaking out Iran Saudi ,Saudi Yemen Syria Turkey 

Those countries are organising while the west have been running round the world issuing ultimatums ,yet the very same countries have been welcoming China /Russia with open arms especially so African and South America which are due to meet regarding a South American currency 

Then you have the french having their arses handed to them on a plate all over Africa in the last 12 months 

As i have said many times will it succeed only time will tell to deny it`s happening is just ignorance 

SWIFT has been well and truly circumvented 

[spygirl]

4 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

You have simply not been paying attention to whats been going on since late 2019/ 2020 if not much longer 

just look at the rush of middle eastern countries leaders flocking to Moscow around that time and have been doing so ever since just look at whats happening in the middle east as in peace is suddenly breaking out Iran Saudi ,Saudi Yemen Syria Turkey 

Those countries are organising while the west have been running round the world issuing ultimatums ,yet the very same countries have been welcoming China /Russia with open arms especially so African and South America which are due to meet regarding a South American currency 

Then you have the french having their arses handed to them on a plate all over Africa in the last 12 months 

As i have said many times will it succeed only time will tell to deny it`s happening is just ignorance 

SWIFT has been well and truly circumvented 

Balls to all that.

This is the usual politics.

ME types are not renowned for holidaying Russia and send their kids to their schools.

If -and thats a big if - you are force to pick sides - Us v Them.

Then the fun starts.

Im sure Putin will be bumped off by one of his inner circle in 12-24m.

 

 

 

 

[Long time lurking]

Is it to early to start a California is fucked thread 

 

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.telefonica.com/en/communication-room/blog/south-koreas-approach-to-the-fair-share-contribution-pioneering-model/

Telefonica really going hard now on big tech not paying its way.I have been buying telcos heavy since March 20 for several reasons,mostly inflation,but the above fact was a big reason,i think it shows a huge structural undervaluation in the sector.

I also think the sector is going to do similar to baccy.Compete,but not compete.Easy way is to make a holding company for lots of the towers and assets,several companies inject theirs into it and it charges them all higher fees that then goes back to them all as profit.I cant see how there wont be changes,55% of traffic from a few companies.Ones that dont pay their tax in Europe.

The article is said to be by their digital policy director,but this is 100% from the CEO.

We cant be sure how this plays out,but it looks almost certain big telcos are going to get a bigger slice of the pie,and its a direct to free cash bit as well.

[Ash4781b]

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

@spygirl that will take in all those 16 hour a week Sharons.Its starting.They know systemic collapse is coming.This will be just the start.

https://www.independent.co.uk/money/budget-to-encourage-over50s-disabled-and-benefits-claimants-back-into-work-b2298907.html

 

– An increase in the threshold of a universal credit claimant’s earnings under which they must meet regularly with a work coach from an equivalent of 15 to 18 hours a week. Partners of working people will also be forced to seek a job.

I thought he was expected to accelerate raising state pension age increase. I’m not sure that would go down well

[Long time lurking]

4 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Balls to all that.

This is the usual politics.

ME types are not renowned for holidaying Russia and send their kids to their schools.

If -and thats a big if - you are force to pick sides - Us v Them.

Then the fun starts.

Im sure Putin will be bumped off by one of his inner circle in 12-24m.

 

 

 

 

 

They have already chosen sides ,and it`s not with the US that is a fact and that is exactly why they are organising and have been for the best part of three years or more when everyone was screaming about the coof all the middle east were in Moscow 

As for Putin ,Medvedve is up next ,that is the last thing the west needs now 

[Long time lurking]

 

[HousePriceMania]

19 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

 

Great excuse to continue their QE/low IR scam 

Edited March 12, 2023 by HousePriceMania

[DurhamBorn]

Nice to get the debt deflation part now isnt it.Companies will need to issue equity instead of debt when there is no free cash.It will mean inflation is higher for longer as well as company formation will slow right down.

Governments spent way to much thanks to massive policy errors from central banks and that allowed none profitable companies to borrow at insane low rates as well.

The economy is saying its not these tech companies the economy needs,its new coal mines etc.

Price inflation/credit deflation.

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 hour ago, Long time lurking said:

Yep it`s going to all take time but from where i`m sitting we are at a point i thought would take many years but it`s happened in less than twelve months ,then again i think the transition started many years ago but it was well under the radar we could quite literally be in the end game right now 

I seen a info Graphic in the last few days and for the life of me i can`t find it again ,it was shoeing a list of countries with their flags next to them that are no able and willingly and able to transact in Rupees via a frame work completely outside of swift ,i did not take much notice ,but unless there's an Asian/South American country with a very similar flag to Germany ,Germany was one of them   

Yes, this has brought home to me that the distance from an event after it's occurred gives a false sense of 20/20 vision. We look back from 50, 100, 200 years and think "idiots, how did they not see? It was so obvious!".

 

In reality there are very few true visionaries, maybe none at all, just a small handful of people who see what's happening just before the end point. And that can be enough, just to give an edge.

 

I include us in that group as we were seeing the BRICS rise long before almost all the "expert" class.

[Long time lurking]

7 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Great excuse to continue their QE/low IR scam 

I don`t think it`s a simple as that ,IMOP this is a forced flight to safety in government debt which will have the effect you claim but it will simply exasperate the Inflation problems which they no longer control anyway ,that problem could get much much worse 

It`s a rock and a hard place for sure 

[DurhamBorn]

32 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

I thought he was expected to accelerate raising state pension age increase. I’m not sure that would go down well

He might,i think the pensions bits are a smokescreen for the bennie bits to look like one big package.The worry is he increases the LTA but makes access harder so helping very well paid Doctors and public sector workers at the expense of everyone else.Cunt gave an interview where he said 50 year olds should be thinking about retirement coming up they should be thinking iv got 20 years more graft in me.

The problem is bennies,not early retirement self funded,but its so huge they are clutching at straws.The increase in hours to 18 is big though,that means every 16 hour tax credit workers etc will now have to go to the job centre.However it needs to be every week,not once every 6 months.Direction is clear though,they are tightening bennie rules,but they really need to cut the bennies themselves.

[Long time lurking]

42 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Yes, this has brought home to me that the distance from an event after it's occurred gives a false sense of 20/20 vision. We look back from 50, 100, 200 years and think "idiots, how did they not see? It was so obvious!".

 

In reality there are very few true visionaries, maybe none at all, just a small handful of people who see what's happening just before the end point. And that can be enough, just to give an edge.

 

I include us in that group as we were seeing the BRICS rise long before almost all the "expert" class.

I`m inclined to say the below was a guess but by fuck it`s looking like a good one 

It was around this time i discovered the guy 2017/18 when trying to workout why all the "china are fucked" predictions of the previous ten years never came to fruition ,the imminent crash became like global warming predictions 

Edited March 12, 2023 by Long time lurking

[Long time lurking]

 

[Long time lurking]

There should be a thread dedicated to all this  ?

Or is keeping here better as it`s all part of the bigger picture ?

 

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

56 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

 

They have already chosen sides ,and it`s not with the US that is a fact and that is exactly why they are organising and have been for the best part of three years or more when everyone was screaming about the coof all the middle east were in Moscow 

As for Putin ,Medvedve is up next ,that is the last thing the west needs now 

This is what barely anyone understands: Putin is actually a moderate within Russia. He's been getting massive flack from his party for being too soft with the Ukraine campaign and the also the west. 

 

Medvedev is very much more hawkish.

[Long time lurking]

16 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

This is what barely anyone understands: Putin is actually a moderate within Russia. He's been getting massive flack from his party for being too soft with the Ukraine campaign and the also the west. 

 

Medvedev is very much more hawkish.

Yep 100% correct ,but it`s not what the west want you to believe ,but the fact he has brokered peace in the middle east in a very short time which the west have been claiming they were trying to achieve for over 5 decades makes a mockery of what the west "achieved "even if the people don`t work out the west was doing the exact opposite of what they claim 

The man in the street of no country wants or needs war 

Edited March 12, 2023 by Long time lurking

[Pip321]

13 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

Yep 100% correct ,but it`s not what the west want you to believe ,but the fact he has brokered peace in the middle east in a very short time which the west have been claiming they were trying to achieve for over 5 decades makes a mockery of what the west "achieved "even if the people don`t work out the west was doing the exact opposite of what they claim 

The man in the street of no country wants or needs war 

Yep, agree.

I joined this thread to understand macros, world economics, direction of travel and build an investment strategy to avoid being a sitting duck ie even the basics such as what’s this gold thing all about? 

However what the ‘macro’ lessons have done is make me look elsewhere and learn the bigger geopolitical picture. And it ain’t pretty.

My outlook was broadly US a bit greedy but they were good, they were free and the movies were great. The rag heads, sand people, Kung foo people, South American with big hats and Ruskie Mafia were bad….life was simple.

I am now agnostic…..I see they are all ‘bad’ and have self interest. Indeed why would they be anything else.

And then you move on and go full circle…...realise rights/wrongs don’t matter….it’s just about being on the front foot with an investment strategy and in the meantime selfishly enjoying what time we have in this tiny spinning rock. 

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 hour ago, Long time lurking said:

I`m inclined to say the below was a guess but by fuck it`s looking like a good one 

It was around this time i discovered the guy 2017/18 when trying to workout why all the "china are fucked" predictions of the previous ten years never came to fruition ,the imminent crash became like global warming predictions 

I have to say, that's very impressive. But that account has an excellent track record on what's been happening, way ahead of anyone else, which makes me think he's some kind of insider.

[M S E Refugee]

22 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Yep, agree.

I joined this thread to understand macros, world economics, direction of travel and build an investment strategy to avoid being a sitting duck ie even the basics such as what’s this gold thing all about? 

However what the ‘macro’ lessons have done is make me look elsewhere and learn the bigger geopolitical picture. And it ain’t pretty.

My outlook was broadly US a bit greedy but they were good, they were free and the movies were great. The rag heads, sand people, Kung foo people, South American with big hats and Ruskie Mafia were bad….life was simple.

I am now agnostic…..I see they are all ‘bad’ and have self interest. Indeed why would they be anything else.

And then you move on and go full circle…...realise rights/wrongs don’t matter….it’s just about being on the front foot with an investment strategy and in the meantime selfishly enjoying what time we have in this tiny spinning rock. 

The West have overplayed their hand by trying to control its Citizens using Covid and Climate change and other WEF policies which makes Putin look very benevolent towards his own Citizens.

The BRICS leaders look serious and Statesman-like whilst Western leaders look to be borderline retarded.

Edited March 12, 2023 by M S E Refugee

[belfastchild]

Has Mexico officially applied to join BRICS?

Thats huge if it has (and explains why the US was talking about military intervention in the mexican drug wars this week).

Cant find an actual source though, so likely bullshit at this stage, but who knows.

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 hour ago, Long time lurking said:

There should be a thread dedicated to all this  ?

Or is keeping here better as it`s all part of the bigger picture ?

 

 

My opinion is that everything related to the realignment, BRICS, fall of Western hegemony etc is vital to where we need to be investing. As long as we keep the focus fairly narrow I'd say it belongs on here 

[Ash4781b]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

He might,i think the pensions bits are a smokescreen for the bennie bits to look like one big package.The worry is he increases the LTA but makes access harder so helping very well paid Doctors and public sector workers at the expense of everyone else.Cunt gave an interview where he said 50 year olds should be thinking about retirement coming up they should be thinking iv got 20 years more graft in me.

The problem is bennies,not early retirement self funded,but its so huge they are clutching at straws.The increase in hours to 18 is big though,that means every 16 hour tax credit workers etc will now have to go to the job centre.However it needs to be every week,not once every 6 months.Direction is clear though,they are tightening bennie rules,but they really need to cut the bennies themselves.

Their model (my assumption) is higher employment taxes, increased immigration to cover reduced workforce participation (that’s covered with benefits). If over 50’s withdrawal labour I fear that breaks the economic model. Then I’d expect based on history for ‘easy’ options for them to open up even more immigration. I think what they could of done was freeze benefits in line with inflation. I took the view that politically they couldn’t freeze the state pension but if they do one they have to do the other.
 

Then there’s the longer term where the think they want to get rid of pension credit. But I think many are planning to rely on that ! 

Edited March 12, 2023 by Ash4781b

[Red Debt Redemption]

36 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Yep, agree.

I joined this thread to understand macros, world economics, direction of travel and build an investment strategy to avoid being a sitting duck ie even the basics such as what’s this gold thing all about? 

However what the ‘macro’ lessons have done is make me look elsewhere and learn the bigger geopolitical picture. And it ain’t pretty.

My outlook was broadly US a bit greedy but they were good, they were free and the movies were great. The rag heads, sand people, Kung foo people, South American with big hats and Ruskie Mafia were bad….life was simple.

I am now agnostic…..I see they are all ‘bad’ and have self interest. Indeed why would they be anything else.

And then you move on and go full circle…...realise rights/wrongs don’t matter….it’s just about being on the front foot with an investment strategy and in the meantime selfishly enjoying what time we have in this tiny spinning rock. 

I can tell you what golds not about.

[Long time lurking]

6 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Has Mexico officially applied to join BRICS?

Thats huge if it has (and explains why the US was talking about military intervention in the mexican drug wars this week).

Cant find an actual source though, so likely bullshit at this stage, but who knows.

I have not read anything from official sources ,but Brazil announced it`s discussions with Argentina , regarding a common currency for trade between the two countries ,it`s also been announced that there's a summit regarding a common South America currency couple this to the statement by Belarus a few weeks ago saying soon we will see  new blocks of powerful currencies ,suggest the wind is blowing in that direction 

IMO we are all still at the guessing stage of how it`s going to all work ,i just follow the twoing's and frowings of countries vising Moscow and China of which their are many that are publicised, yet i suspect there`s far more that are not  ,the fact that this is happening tells me they are taking no chances ,it`s said in person with the intension of keeping us all guessing