Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[Pip321]

4 hours ago, WICAO said:

It's a big change and for me it was a huge change.  Within 2 weeks I left something that I spent 60 hours + commute a week at, something that I had been doing my whole life, something I was good at, something that I was paid well to do and to add to it moved countries.  It might work for some but in hindsight it was just too fast a change for me partly because of the void it created.  In hindsight I should have worked up to it but that's just me and hindsight is of course a wonderful thing.

Regarding the relationship I think a few things were at play.  We met when we were both career drones which meant limited time together as well as very different day-to-day conversations.  All of a sudden we had heaps of time together and couldn't talk shop meaning we couldn't hide from who we were, how we were changing and how we were feeling.  Moving to the other side of the world plus all the Covid nonsense at the time didn't help when thrown into the mix on top of what was already happening.  Through the FIRE process we also changed hugely as individuals.  In 2007 I was just one of the masses with a career, spending everything I had and trying to buy a house.  FIRE was actually my plan B - the polos really did f*ck up (no Jeremy I won't be going back to becoming a wage slave)  I've changed a lot and am nothing like that person today.  Importantly I much prefer who I am today.

Good luck with your FIRE.  It's a wonderful freeing thing.

Thanks WICAO, I joined your blog as I was nearing the end of my own similar FIRE journey and our interactions helped me….not least knowing that I wasn’t the only one.

We had some differences in viewpoints for example with kids, grandkids I was always going to stay in North Yorkshire. However my approach to FIRE was a desire but almost unplanned/unconscious whereas yours was precise and deliberate…..and our touch points really helped me ‘smarten up’ my objectives.

We retired around the same time albeit I was a bit older. I loved my holidays in 2019 (Australia, Italy) but covid cocked up my plans for big travel and in some ways my ‘retirement’ plans. Indeed the legacy of covid remains with us and I am ‘forcing myself’ to start travelling again.

Interestingly I have found myself doing some of the things @DurhamBorn has mentioned. I swore I wouldn’t give up a high paid job to look after the grandkids so my kids could do crap paid jobs…..but that’s evolved. So whilst we don’t routinely baby sit we help the kids a lot because it’s easy and saves ‘the family’ money. Not least decorating and improving their homes (which I love doing) and occasional ad hoc baby sitting (but our grandkids are 6, 10, 11, 14 and 17) so it’s not really baby sitting. 

I have decompressed but still have someway to go. Next few years I intend to move to much more passive income as you ‘mentioned’ when we retired….so I am selling property and following this thread keenly.

Thanks for sharing your journey. 👍🏻

Edited March 11, 2023 by Pip321

[belfastchild]

4 hours ago, WICAO said:

It might work for some but in hindsight it was just too fast a change for me partly because of the void it created.  In hindsight I should have worked up to it but that's just me and hindsight is of course a wonderful thing.

Its the one thing I keep telling people approaching early retirement. You MUST have something to do with your time and you should really start whatever that is before you retire.
You will eventually run out of DIY. Yes, you can get a dog and walk it every day or take up golf and golf every day but if you havent done it before then what happens if you dont like it or it pishes down all the time?

Ive still a couple of hobby businesses, both providing background income, not really straight payment for services type thing. I do still do the odd one or two jobs like that a month but its very much the stuff I want to do or what interests me or things I want to learn about.

Ive still a couple of older cars to refurbish and that could always be an option, hour or two a day on that, lots of tea and whilst it costs me money its not that much in the scheme of things.

If you have been used to a social work environment, you have to be social, suddenly turning it off will do your head in. I meet friends and old colleagues for lunch once or twice a week (not the same ones over and over again obviously), give old clients a shout to see how they are doing etc.  Thats not going to work for everyone but its just an idea to get your own plan going.

Ive no kids and my family are mostly in England so theres trips over there once a month etc plus I do like to travel so theres at least one reasonable trip a quarter and one at least month long trip every year or two. I aim to be away 3 months of the year (including england and down south -roi). I can make most of those business related as well.

I was in the garden centre during the week and noticed they had jobs posted on the wall outside. One guy I met a year or so ago gave up a 70k job to go work in a garden centre at weekends until his pension kicked in. Cheap access to stuff for his garden, great if you like that sort of thing. He gets a tan most of the year working a couple of days outside then clears off to portugal in the winter for a month or two.

[DurhamBorn]

5 hours ago, WICAO said:

Cheers.  It reminds me of the saying you have to break a few eggs if you want to make an omelette.  People talk about decompression post FIRE and I have heard durations like 6 to 12 months mentioned a few times.  It really has taken me nearly 4 or so years to figure things out so I'm maybe an outlier.  Maybe it's linked to how tight we are linked to our Career/Job/Work...

I'm still 100% convinced FIRE was the right path for me but I won't lie - it's been a tough road.  Of course others mileage may vary.

Took me twenty minutes to adjust,but iv always hated work even when i had good jobs,my investing was always my real job anyway and my passion,so my "jobs" were really just a torture i needed to put up with while i built capital.I always knew i was like the Hugh Grant character in About a Boy (i lived like that for a good 5 years in my 30s) when he is walking across a bridge in London one way,while everyone else,hundreds are walking the other way to their offices.

Iv always laughed at people who think their job defines them,you would be remembered better scratching your name in a rock.I really was forced into what i do,because the other option,working until 67 or living with a bennie Sharon would of seen me in jail i think,or dead.However its a good job we are a small part of the population,because as more do it,the government is looking at ways to shut your freedom off.

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

2008 vibe intensifies.

[Pip321]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Took me twenty minutes to adjust,but iv always hated work even when i had good jobs,my investing was always my real job anyway and my passion,so my "jobs" were really just a torture i needed to put up with while i built capital.I always knew i was like the Hugh Grant character in About a Boy (i lived like that for a good 5 years in my 30s) when he is walking across a bridge in London one way,while everyone else,hundreds are walking the other way to their offices.

Iv always laughed at people who think their job defines them,you would be remembered better scratching your name in a rock.I really was forced into what i do,because the other option,working until 67 or living with a bennie Sharon would of seen me in jail i think,or dead.However its a good job we are a small part of the population,because as more do it,the government is looking at ways to shut your freedom off.

 

As @belfastchild mentioned it’s important to know what you are going to do. However, like you say many people may be ‘over defined’ by their work. Particularly as the 9-5 type roles are a relatively new phenomenon in human development.

Historically I imagine a farmer, cobbler etc did that till they dropped so their is some instinct to this….but the world is a bigger place now  

I think being defined a by work is okay but it’s about degrees. I have seen where that fear of retirement and not having anything to do leads to people working way beyond when they could have retired…..and I have seen that a lot in the ‘financial services’ area I worked. In probably a dozen cases I have seen people working until late 60’s (when they were already very comfortable at 55) and only retiring when it’s all too late and they are very ill, often terminal. It feels like programming at its worst.

Have mentioned before that I remember watching Tarzan Legend of Greystoke…where in the opening the parents are killed and the baby is taken in by apes yadda yadda…..all I could think of was a total tangent of how did the Victorian parents travel like that without having to be in the office every single day. I decide then (at about 15) that I wanted to retire and use my time like a Victorian Gent would have. Travelling, maybe a bit Sherlock Holmes, smoking jacket and shooting a pistol at the walks etc….just being.

Okay that won’t happen but that’s where my mind is….in the same way you see that Hugh Grant film, and I understand what you mean. It’s about how you ‘feel’.

Anyhoo….enough dreaming. I need to visit some people, book a trip to London, pick up the dog and think about buying a few more shares if they hit ladders.😉👍🏻

Edited March 11, 2023 by Pip321
Predictive text…the devils work.

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Took me twenty minutes to adjust,but iv always hated work even when i had good jobs,my investing was always my real job anyway and my passion,so my "jobs" were really just a torture i needed to put up with while i built capital.I always knew i was like the Hugh Grant character in About a Boy (i lived like that for a good 5 years in my 30s) when he is walking across a bridge in London one way,while everyone else,hundreds are walking the other way to their offices.

Iv always laughed at people who think their job defines them,you would be remembered better scratching your name in a rock.I really was forced into what i do,because the other option,working until 67 or living with a bennie Sharon would of seen me in jail i think,or dead.However its a good job we are a small part of the population,because as more do it,the government is looking at ways to shut your freedom off.

 

Yup, pretty much agree here. Once upon a time I used to be an Artworker and work in the print on Macs (well paid industry at the time) before they were a fashion accessory.

I figured out of school/Uni that if I did something creative I would enjoy my career and it wouldn’t seem like work. Turns out it was full of business analysts and grifters like everywhere else.

I got quite high up in the corporation and become the MD’s right hand man for new business concepts, but it became political. I would sit there in meetings with business analysts imagining my life force draining from my bones, whilst they uttered fuckisms like ‘blue sky thinking’, ‘grasp the lowing hanging fruit, and ‘outside of the box’.

The final straw was when a senior manager said ‘we haven’t got a silver bullet to kill the werewolf’… that was it for me then, I handed in my notice. I was splitting up from my ex anyway at that point too and selling the house (pre 2007) so went traveling for a couple of years after that.

I won’t say what I do now on here (some are aware), but I do what I do because I deem it something that ‘matters’, I’m quite high up in my field at the pay is good and I’m away a lot. But it is a job at the end of the day and I can be replaced.

I view all work as a way for the government to extract my time and life force through taxation. As soon as I’m able to do without it I’ll piss off and never look back as I’ve done before.

Myself and my partner are tried and tested with living on top of one another and getting on each others nerves. I can quite easily make myself scarce with interests/hobbies however and more importantly I know *when* to and I think that’s key.

Knowing each other inside out, being happy with the time spent together but also knowing when to do one for ‘me’ time.

Edited March 11, 2023 by Lightscribe

[Shamone]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Took me twenty minutes to adjust,but iv always hated work even when i had good jobs,my investing was always my real job anyway and my passion,so my "jobs" were really just a torture i needed to put up with while i built capital.I always knew i was like the Hugh Grant character in About a Boy (i lived like that for a good 5 years in my 30s) when he is walking across a bridge in London one way,while everyone else,hundreds are walking the other way to their offices.

Iv always laughed at people who think their job defines them,you would be remembered better scratching your name in a rock.I really was forced into what i do,because the other option,working until 67 or living with a bennie Sharon would of seen me in jail i think,or dead.However its a good job we are a small part of the population,because as more do it,the government is looking at ways to shut your freedom off.

 

I can just about face another 10 years because I can get all my tax back via Sipp and am back to working pubic sector so all shits and giggles. I do a good job though, work far harder than I need to. Old fashioned work ethic I think, nuts I know.

[CVG]

I retired at 51 and hate the fact that I still have dreams about being sacked!

[ThoughtCriminal]

Look at the fucking cunts on that thread demanding SVB be bailed out. Their love of capitalism is a mile wide and inch deep.

 

I'd hang them next to the bankers.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

2008 vibe intensifies.

Isn't that similar to the UK Government rating?

[reformed nice guy]

23 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Look at the fucking cunts on that thread demanding SVB be bailed out. Their love of capitalism is a mile wide and inch deep.

 

I'd hang them next to the bankers.

Edited March 11, 2023 by reformed nice guy

[Shamone]

10 hours ago, WICAO said:

I'm not sure if many of the readers of this thread are pursuing FIRE but some of you may remember my musings from TOS about my journey to FIRE.  I've had a few people ask me for a general update as it's been a while so I've jotted (into the interwebs rather than a physical jotter ) down some thoughts covering location, work, relationships, housing and finances.  This is the link and @spunko if inappropriate please feel free to delete.

Excellent, uplifting post. Good on you, sir. You won, you deserve it too. 

[Lightscribe]

17 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Agree, and if they were watching the charts over the last year they have had [from what I can see], four warnings since Jan 2022 that the 'game is up'!

If they read this thread, they would have got the message on the first one… 

 

[steppensheep]

19 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Fantastic this went down,its everything a dis-inflation is.Deposits were funding start ups etc.Amazing how their name is even designed to tie them in to all that is new and shiny,but they have learned that when inflation comes a knocking its free cash flow you need to pay your coupons.The message this tells for those who want to listen is there is no money to be made in future growth right now.This is a distribution cycle and you want things people need etc that even if demand falls 5% you can charge an extra 8% and keep ahead of the coupon increases.Shame they didnt fund some new coal mines instead.

does 200bn or whatever going up in a puff of smoke, in itself have any material effect on the money supply, future gdp, interest rate decisions etc ? the macro?

[Lightscribe]

SVP was actually the 16th largest US bank. Think there maybe more contagion to come.

Bit of a bank run is always fun.

 

 

All the kerfuffle is also causing instability in the USDC crypto stable coin, which will be very interesting to watch.

obligatory South Park sketch 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

I had never heard of the Bank of London until today. Apparently it was set up in 2021. I wonder who is behind it.

 

[MockneyRebel]

11 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I had never heard of the Bank of London until today. Apparently it was set up in 2021. I wonder who is behind it.

 

Lazard Lizard People https://www.business-live.co.uk/professional-services/banking-finance/bank-london-creates-100-person-24255374

[janch]

5 minutes ago, MockneyRebel said:

Lazard Lizard People https://www.business-live.co.uk/professional-services/banking-finance/bank-london-creates-100-person-24255374

I don't have a good feeling about this (WEF?) bank with Peter Mandelson as a director:

The Bank of London, which claims to be the “world’s first purpose-built global clearing, agency and transaction bank”

Lizard people indeed.

[Errol]

Obvious bailout is Obvious.

[Noallegiance]

37 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

SVP was actually the 16th largest US bank. Think there maybe more contagion to come.

Bit of a bank run is always fun.

 

IMG_3331.MOV 831.56 kB · 0 downloads  

 

All the kerfuffle is also causing instability in the USDC crypto stable coin, which will be very interesting to watch.

obligatory South Park sketch 

The irony of that chart being for a 'stable' coin.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

7 minutes ago, Errol said:

Obvious bailout is Obvious.

It is almost as if a bank had been set up especially for the purpose of buying up distressed banking assets.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

6 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

The irony of that chart being for a 'stable' coin.

It is a fable coin.

[darkmarket]

3 minutes ago, Errol said:

Obvious bailout is Obvious.

Perhaps more an attempt at containment than a bailout. It suggests the resolution framework wasn't sufficient to prevent contagion within the UK. If the thinking is that, by quickly moving to secure depositors without anyone incurring losses, a line will be drawn under the uncertainty as regards the UK impact, the risk is the move will have quite the opposite effect, as markets sniff weakness and fragility.

Most of the focus has been on the dominoes within the US banking system. My expectation is that the dominoes that fall will be within the US to some extent, but more critically in the EU, UK and China. For that reason, I'm not persuaded the full bailout demanded by the Silicon Valley VC community will be immediately forthcoming. An interesting week ahead in any case.

[Calcutta]

Peter fucking Mandelson. What a surprise. 

He wouldn't have climbed out of his coffin unless he could smell blood.

Begin the sacrifices. 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, steppensheep said:

does 200bn or whatever going up in a puff of smoke, in itself have any material effect on the money supply, future gdp, interest rate decisions etc ? the macro?

zero affect,it hasnt gone up ins smoke,its moved to someone else.Liquidity moves thats all.They lend to people with no free cashflow mostly so as rates increase those struggle more and more to pay back the loans.The money was loaned to the companies who paid their staff who bought / put fuel in their cars etc.It just moves.Inflation cycles send all the money to the de-complex areas.Of course in time thats just as bad because once the distribution cycle distributes all the other savings and assets the whole thing collapses,but there are trillions and trillions of housing,bond and bubble wealth to distribute yet,the inflation areas have just had the first look at the summit of Everest from Pang La,they have a long long way to go yet.

Edited March 11, 2023 by DurhamBorn