Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[Long time lurking]

[Red Debt Redemption]

Hodl!

[moneyscam]

Alf does a thorough breakdown of what happened at SVB which is worth reading the whole way through. A combination of incompetence (no hedging), moral hazard, good old fashioned lobbying, regulatory failure and accounting chicanery led to this blow up.

I don't buy the 'all regional banks' are at this level of fuck up so personally discount a major turnaround from the FED in the short term. 

 

[tlc]

Ah well

 

[darkmarket]

23 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

Very shoddy crisis management.

The announcement to begin the resolution process was made public through Reuters on Friday evening. Then the Bank of London plan was allowed to be made public, showing a lack of confidence in the resolution process. Now, that plan is off the table in its mooted form and this announcement comes with vocal assurances that the bank presents no systemic risk. Indeed.

Methinks the Lady protesteth too much, and that markets will test that too.

[moneyscam]

1 minute ago, darkmarket said:

Very shoddy crisis management.

The announcement to begin the resolution process was made public through Reuters on Friday evening. Then the Bank of London plan was allowed to be made public, showing a lack of confidence in the resolution process. Now, that plan is off the table in its mooted form and this announcement comes with vocal assurances that the bank presents no systemic risk. Indeed.

Methinks the Lady protesteth too much, and that markets will test that too.

Do you mean this lady? To be fair to her the issues at SVB originated in the US but for me this is a glaring example on being focused on the wrong things for a risk manager because it speaks to the culture in that organisation. I only feel sorry for the small businesses that banked there caught up in an almighty fuck up by management and regulators.

 

[honkydonkey]

[Ash4781b]

‘Tech’ companies demanding a bailout? Not systemic but sounds like there’s some problem there bubbling behind the scenes but whether it’s linked to SVB not sure. Sounds fishy

”The UK government is coordinating an emergency meeting with tech firms, who are expected to call for state intervention to avoid the failure of hundreds of firms following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank UK (SVB UK).

““The government recognises that tech sector companies are often not cashflow positive as they grow, and that they rely on cash on deposits to cover their day to day costs,” the Treasury said in a statement.”

https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/11/government-to-meet-tech-firms-following-collapse-of-silicon-valley-bank-uk

[Loki]

Just now, honkydonkey said:

No problem, the extra tax will pay for their benefits

[darkmarket]

4 minutes ago, moneyscam said:

Do you mean this lady? To be fair to her the issues at SVB originated in the US but for me this is a glaring example on being focused on the wrong things for a risk manager because it speaks to the culture in that organisation. I only feel sorry for the small businesses that banked there caught up in an almighty fuck up by management and regulators.

 

Yes, I only feel sorry for the few decent businesses that'll be caught up in the damage. The bank itself looks like Red Guards experimenting in central planning.

I meant the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street, though they seem to have so much in common with Ms Ersapah and her colleagues you'd be hard pressed to tell the difference.

[Pip321]

40 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

‘Tech’ companies demanding a bailout? Not systemic but sounds like there’s some problem there bubbling behind the scenes but whether it’s linked to SVB not sure. Sounds fishy

”The UK government is coordinating an emergency meeting with tech firms, who are expected to call for state intervention to avoid the failure of hundreds of firms following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank UK (SVB UK).

““The government recognises that tech sector companies are often not cashflow positive as they grow, and that they rely on cash on deposits to cover their day to day costs,” the Treasury said in a statement.”

https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/11/government-to-meet-tech-firms-following-collapse-of-silicon-valley-bank-uk

My worry here is the governments promise that the UK will be the next Silicon Valley. Perhaps they were being precise and we just misunderstood what they meant. 

Never mind….what’s the worst that could happen 🤦🏻‍♂️

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

My worry here is the governments promise that the UK will be the next Silicon Valley. Perhaps they were being precise and we just misunderstood what they meant. 

"The white heat of...oh never mind it went out"

[Pip321]

For the first time ever, I have bought some cheap DVDs (Blue Rays) because to watch the movies I had to pay £10.99 on Virgin. Just some old movies for nostalgia that Mrs Pip liked from the 80’s (nothing to mention)….made me realised how cheap it was. Also made me now consider cancelling Virgin monthly subscription and go to freeview, Netflix and borrowed Disney.

Anyhoo the main reason for this post (and apologies for anyone who has seen this)….but spotted this meme today and made me think of this thread and buying DVDs.😆😉

Edited March 11, 2023 by Pip321

[Chewing Grass]

1 hour ago, moneyscam said:

Do you mean this lady? To be fair to her the issues at SVB originated in the US but for me this is a glaring example on being focused on the wrong things for a risk manager because it speaks to the culture in that organisation. I only feel sorry for the small businesses that banked there caught up in an almighty fuck up by management and regulators.

 

The American Engineering firm I work for is hiring more and more of these fuckers whose main interest is looking good to the LGTBQ+ and Diversity Pantomime with added ESG, not fucking working for a living, that's for the non-virtuous plebs.

One the investment money stops these companies will all fail, even the too big to fail ones as there are other countries companies that don't do the US/Blackrock Bullshit which is where it all stems from.

[Calcutta]

3 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Why?

 

Sell up... market tanks...buy back in.

 

Net effective massive gain.

Right now the most likely chain of events seems something like.....

This crock of shit fails.

Some more crocks of shit start failing.

Central banks do something.

Markets bounce back.

Another crock of shit fails. A bigger one. 

All fucking hell breaks loose.

Markets bouncing back would be the time to sell, when all hell breaks loose would be the time to buy gold mines. 

For now I think it's probably prudent to hold what I'm already holding, keep anything that's underwater thru the bounce back, keep my trousers on thru the crash and buy the gold mines when they hit my original ladders about 25% down from where they are sitting now.

Fuck me tho the temptation to pile into Barrick yesterday, if it hadn't been for the school run I'd probably have shot my shot far too early. Thank fuck it's the weekend.

 

 

[Axeman123]

You can't help feeling some insiders are trying to force the Feds hand by sowing panic:

 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Axeman123 said:

You can't help feeling some insiders are trying to force the Feds hand by sowing panic:

 

Yeah saw similar in tweet on ZH

 

[Alifelessbinary]

I think this article probably explains the rational series of events relating to SVB and how it will play out.

Saying that we live in interesting times and there’s clearly elements in the VC community that would love to use this to whip up contagion in the wider investment markets.

https://monevator.com/weekend-reading-a-bank-blows-up/

[Long time lurking]

Not sure or the authenticity of this 

 

[Long time lurking]

27 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

You can't help feeling some insiders are trying to force the Feds hand by sowing panic:

 

i`m thinking the FED threw them under the bus ,nothing like a banking panic to lower your bond rates 

[Castlevania]

5 hours ago, King Penda said:

Hammer house of horror going up rapidly I got the puzzle box for 20p

I have a boxed copy of “Surviving the Game” which is an awesome battle royale film; which seems to sell for around £15 on eBay. 

[Errol]

1 hour ago, Pip321 said:

 

I'm imagining this with the camp C3P0 voice as well. Is this a real film?

Edited March 11, 2023 by Errol

[HousePriceMania]

 

[Loki]

why muny gone?

 

 

 

 

[JMD]

7 hours ago, belfastchild said:

To be utterly ridiculous for a minute...
Ive regailed many a story of amassing a huge (2000+) dvd collection. All picked up for less than 10p each and extras sold on etc.
Well a localish (25 miles away) charity was selling dvds for 1p each, box sets were 1p per disc. So less than a gallon of diesel and 250ish dvds later along with 2 hours out of my life

Charities have stopped taking them in apparently, have thousands they want rid off and a few charities have just sold them off bulk to people to put on ebay by the pallet load!

So if anyone is interested, worth keeping an eye out, the charity put it up on their facebook page as a weekend only thing. (were selling 10 for a quid a while back).

Right back to the collapse of the banking system... ;-)

So what your saying is...  the age of the Dvd is over!