Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[feed]

If this is true, it's getting bailed.  One way or another. 

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Every cloud............

[darkmarket]

42 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

We remain long Oil,gold,comms,baccy in that order

It's far from inevitable, but it strikes me that one way the Conservatives could avoid total humiliation in the next General Election is to cut the tax on cigarettes dramatically, bring them well below £5 a pack and grant licences for some pubs to bring back smoking.

As commercial property collapses, small pubs could become more profitable again, and the tax shortfall could be partially recovered with higher drinks taxes to avoid social problems. With Labour hoping to ban tobacco outright, I can't think of a single policy that would distinguish the big two parties better and even help bring together the four corners of the Union.

I know the investment thesis here is based on other considerations, but an end to the wars on smoking and pubs isn't unthinkable in the circumstances.

[King Penda]

2 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Every cloud............

They can go fly a kite in the park tupence tupence……name the film

[King Penda]

1 minute ago, darkmarket said:

It's far from inevitable, but it strikes me that one way the Conservatives could avoid total humiliation in the next General Election is to cut the tax on cigarettes dramatically, bring them well below £5 a pack and grant licences for some pubs to bring back smoking.

As commercial property collapses, small pubs could become more profitable again, and the tax shortfall could be partially recovered with higher drinks taxes to avoid social problems. With Labour hoping to ban tobacco outright, I can't think of a single policy that would distinguish the big two parties better and even help bring together the four corners of the Union.

I know the investment thesis here is based on other considerations, but an end to the wars on smoking and pubs isn't unthinkable in the circumstances.

Once they start on that it will be vaping next cunts

[HousePriceMania]

I know the macro men won't like this, but is anyone selling?

Anyone any thoughts on how this is going to play out with respect to mortgage rates and therefore the housing bubble?

 

Looks like DB collapse prediction date might have been a good call, will we even make it to Jan 2024?

 

Shit just got real 

[feed]

15 minutes ago, King Penda said:

Hammer house of horror going up rapidly I got the puzzle box for 20p

Good spot.  It's the Horror movies that have the real value in the VHS market.. 

 

[HousePriceMania]

47 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Just finished watching this:

This fella* reckons the Fed need a rate cut on Monday morning, or it all collapses! He is quick to point out all of this is the delayed consequences of QE. An apolocalyptic take on where from here.

If we see what he predicts I would expect gold to moon.

*Apparently he called the SVB stuff 10 months out.

Better to double the rates on Monday and get this depessionary collapse over with, it's unavoidable now 

[King Penda]

7 minutes ago, feed said:

Good spot.  It's the Horror movies that have the real value in the VHS market.. 

 

I’ve got quite a few Italian zombie movies demons is going up in value and other cult horror’s this is a totaly dire film but 12 quid wtf

Edited March 11, 2023 by King Penda

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, Sugarlips said:

I remember the 90's when LP's we're worthless, strong demand for them now. More recently cassettes were also 10 a penny, they are getting more scarce now. CDs will also follow this trend over time. If you have the space now's the time to load up, especially if you envisage internet outages in our near future.

Exactly the convo me an Mrs N were having this week. Movies on DVD. We still have most of our collection but I'm gradually getting ones I want like Wrath of Khan, Where Eagles Dare, Matrix, Predator for examples.

When power outages happen if you've got all your movies 'in the cloud' it's not much good. I want some classics to show the kids.

Same with my music it's all on thumb drives not a streaming service.

[belfastchild]

25 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Every cloud............

Every day I have to remind myself that correlation does not imply causation.

[reformed nice guy]

11 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I know the macro men won't like this, but is anyone selling?

Anyone any thoughts on how this is going to play out with respect to mortgage rates and therefore the housing bubble?

 

Looks like DB collapse prediction date might have been a good call, will we even make it to Jan 2024?

 

Shit just got real 

Why?

If the market tanks then it will give buying opportunities to ladder into previously identified companies that we want to take a long term holding in

Buy low, sell high

[Errol]

57 minutes ago, feed said:

Some of the British film institute and criterion collection movies are already commanding premium on DVD.  99% of it will be junk with millions of copies the latest marvel movie, but classic and older issue will have a market, no doubt.  I've started buying.  

I have bluray copies of all the films (and some TV shows) that I want to watch. Watch the films multiple times and will continue every year. No way I would ever consider going all digital with no physical copies. 

The lunatics in charge will delete certain films, edit them or just plain ban them the way things are going. At least with a physical copy you have it forever and can watch it when you like in the original form.

Edited March 11, 2023 by Errol

[Cattle Prod]

On 10/03/2023 at 17:17, Onsamui said:

Jim Cramer was pushing this days' ago a as a 'buy'.  He does it every time.

 

He’s just blocked me for lambasting him on this. He was an important contrarian indicator for me, but it was worth it. I’m sure the basement will let me know when he goes long oil or gold 

[belfastchild]

2 minutes ago, Errol said:

They lunatics in charge will delete certain films, edit them or just plain ban them the way things are going. At least with a physical copy you have it forever and can watch it when you like in the original form.

Thats partly my reason. I watched born on the 4th july on 4od the other night and thought I was doting. I hadnt seen the film in decades probably but was sure there were bits either cut or misremembered.
I know there have always been TV edits of things but its no longer just sweary words or what used to pass for gratuitous sex.

About 10 years ago I started watching the online version of Netflix. Very very different to whats on there now, now the warnings are about 2 pages long before a film but back then IIRC they were the original edits, not the made for tv stuff.
Cant watch any of this shite any more.

[HousePriceMania]

10 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

Why?

If the market tanks then it will give buying opportunities to ladder into previously identified companies that we want to take a long term holding in

Buy low, sell high

Why?

 

Sell up... market tanks...buy back in.

 

Net effective massive gain.

[HousePriceMania]

3 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

A bit of red in here

 

Does sunaks in-laws own a bank?

[Errol]

[King Penda]

18 minutes ago, Errol said:

I have bluray copies of all the films (and some TV shows) that I want to watch. Watch the films multiple times and will continue every year. No way I would ever consider going all digital with no physical copies. 

The lunatics in charge will delete certain films, edit them or just plain ban them the way things are going. At least with a physical copy you have it forever and can watch it when you like in the original form.

I’m actually watching shogun assassin . It’s a far more influential film that most realise aka Tarantino and takisi Mike both influenced by it

[reformed nice guy]

6 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Why?

 

Sell up... market tanks...buy back in.

 

Net effective massive gain.

That is a fair strategy and effective if you can pull it off, but I dont view myself as competent enough to trade effectively.

I just ladder at price levels so I dont need to worry about timing the market

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The key thing about this cycle is its an equity story,not  debt story.The cost of money will remain too high to fund growth for none free cash companies with debt.If you cant raise equity then you dont have a business.Im very pleased to see that the first to roll over is the bank most exposed to the above.The cycle is in play.I think your very right that vested interests know they are cooked unless the Fed pivots,but they dont understand the fact they dont matter.In a reflation its the dirty job creating companies they want back,even if they dont say it.Sinking liquidity into jam tomorrow companies is over for the cycle.They were last cycle.Like i said at the start of this thread,the thing that matters more than anything,the first thing you roadmap from is the cost of money.Huge numbers of people forgot that.

Of course the real message of whats going on is that the government has stolen all that money by borrowing it all at tiny coupons and spunking it on welfare.The message is tech cant borrow at tiny coupons,but nor can government (though in the short term yields will fall as a rush to safety).

The risk though is if one of the big ones rolls over and all those derivatives come into play.Currency and rate hedges could become worthless then there is  huge problem.I suspect the Fed and other CBs only care about that,making sure counterparties hold,they might have to sacrifice bond holders and creditors on lots of these smaller banks.

@DurhamBorn what's your gut instinct as to what the fed/boe will do next?

[Sugarlips]

18 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

@DurhamBorn what's your gut instinct as to what the fed/boe will do next?

I think we've cracked it, short banks, long Jenna Jameson discs....

[reformed nice guy]

23 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

@DurhamBorn what's your gut instinct as to what the fed/boe will do next?

I think the next specific move doesnt really matter - this thread is all about the direction

[Long time lurking]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

This is what I got worng psot 2008,I focused on what they should do rather than what they would do.

I think this is the starter course for the main BK which will feature the impact from the collpase of resi/commercial real estate and junk bond markets.

Gonna be brutal.

We remain long Oil,gold,comms,baccy in that order,prob got 15% cash at the mo(due to selling ladders of BP/Shell/Rolls last week) some of which will be redeployed monday

A few harsh but true home truths there DB.There's going to be a lot of tech businesses that have been given loads of easy cheap moeny to burn getting schoked at the banks telling them to f##k off.

As I've said from day one I think we'll get a credit deflation in the credit markets.

Personally,I think the pressure on powell will be too much and he'll pivot but as you allude,it won't be the sort of pviot that will see tech unciorns getting more dollars too burn.

I think a blow out BK roll over in derivatives marekts is on the cards,possibly later in the year.I think we may see the weak dollar phsae that sets up the BK as a result of the SVB blow out.time will tell.

I think later in the year we could well see the otehr DB and credit susisee and the like implode.time will tell.Look at the devastation in the UK due to LDI last sept/oct...

I think we're about 43 seconds where the BK starts to crest.

 

Inflate or die 

[King Penda]

1 hour ago, Errol said:

I have bluray copies of all the films (and some TV shows) that I want to watch. Watch the films multiple times and will continue every year. No way I would ever consider going all digital with no physical copies. 

The lunatics in charge will delete certain films, edit them or just plain ban them the way things are going. At least with a physical copy you have it forever and can watch it when you like in the original form.

Once every form of entertainment is 80% plus internet based the isp prices will rocket not get cheaper.slowly slowly catchy monkey