Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[belfastchild]

16 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I get money occasionally from royalties from records I have played on over the years, they are interesting because they can be classed as capital gains or income, bit of a grey line between the two.

Dont know about music but certainly my royalties from copyright material and IP are classified as self employed income. They are all related to my current or previous jobs though.
One thing I did make sure of was that all that was included in my will as I dont have direct descendants. My solicitor had to go away and look it up!

[Bobthebuilder]

7 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Dont know about music but certainly my royalties from copyright material and IP are classified as self employed income. They are all related to my current or previous jobs though.
One thing I did make sure of was that all that was included in my will as I dont have direct descendants. My solicitor had to go away and look it up!

I had a payment not that long ago that was from someone buying the rights off someone else for an album I made in the 1980s, which a payment to the band was in the contract. Could have been classed as capital gains, but I took it as income and stuck it in my SIPP for the extra tax relief.

[Harley]

6 hours ago, headrow said:

I just want a quiet life and to be left alone....

Good luck with that.  If your needs were so special there'll be a taxi waiting outside!

[sancho panza]

Bit of Tavi take

[kibuc]

9 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Bit of Tavi take

 

Looks like it's Newmont Price Share to Gold, which is a retarded metric (very fitting for Tavi's profile, ngl). I don't know what sharecount Newmont had in the 90s but I do know they basically doubled their count in 2018 overnight to buy Goldcorp. Share price only matters if you're a holder. For long-time comparison purposes it's useless.

 

Edit: looks like it was 0.2B in the early naughties, compared to 0.8B to now. And people dare to ask why mining stonks suck.

 

https://companiesmarketcap.com/newmont/shares-outstanding/

Edited March 28 by kibuc

[Bobthebuilder]

12 minutes ago, Harley said:

Good luck with that.  If your needs were so special there'll be a taxi waiting outside!

And a PIP form.

I came back from my Dorset trip early this week as the weather was absolutely awful, saw a few water mills and plenty of water. Also saw my first migrant hotel near Bournemouth sea front, they were all sitting in a covered bar/ dining area at the front near the pavement smoking shisha pipes all on their mobile phones.

What a change from last year, back then everyone was talking about becoming a property investor, now it is like a soap opera episode that @DurhamBorn has wrote the script. Everyone claiming PIP, women in their 50s with kids now 20 who's benefits have obviously stopped, and they are claiming PIP for the kids who either are unable or unwilling to hold down a job.

What a mess, it was fucking embarrassing.

[One percent]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I get money occasionally from royalties from records I have played on over the years, they are interesting because they can be classed as capital gains or income, bit of a grey line between the two.

Ooh, ooh, can we guess?  My money is on drummer.   

[One percent]

45 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Dont know about music but certainly my royalties from copyright material and IP are classified as self employed income. They are all related to my current or previous jobs though.
One thing I did make sure of was that all that was included in my will as I dont have direct descendants. My solicitor had to go away and look it up!

Im open to being adopted.  

[Harley]

38 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Bit of Tavi take

Somebody's got a new set of crayons or summing?

What justification is there for drawing that second turn?  Kuz feelings?

He may be right in the direction, but it won't be through such graffiti!

Edited March 28 by Harley

[Bobthebuilder]

15 minutes ago, One percent said:

Ooh, ooh, can we guess?  My money is on drummer.   

[One percent]

4 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

You are Brian May and ICMFP.  

[M S E Refugee]

45 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Bit of Tavi take

Funnily enough I watched this yesterday and Craig Hemke is pretty scathing about Newmont and Barrick.

 

 

[Bobthebuilder]

7 minutes ago, One percent said:

You are Brian May and ICMFP.  

I had a piss in a urinal next to Brian May, we said hello and I said "nice to meet you, but I am not shaking your fucking hand"

[Plan-b]

1 minute ago, M S E Refugee said:

Funnily enough I watched this yesterday and Craig Hemke is pretty scathing about Newmont and Barrick.

 

Many years ago he had the nickname Turd Fergusson. I still get his TF metals report emails every Saturday morning, never read them these days perhaps I should unsubscribe  

[Lightscribe]

I may of mentioned once or twice that I think we’ve started the bullrun… 
 

Edited March 28 by Lightscribe

[ThoughtCriminal]

Poor bitch married a Dosbodder.

 

 

[Pip321]

11 hours ago, Plan-b said:

Careful there young Pip I resemble that statement 

From what you've said on here in the past you have done very well out of this country, and fair play to you for doing it! - You saw the game many years ago and set your stall out and with some luck and good judgement became a serial landlord and retired minted at 50 (Hoping to be correct here its all from memory).

The game has changed and unless you have the brains or connections to get a good job or something going your best way forward is to get your yourself on the Bennies and milk it for all it's worth, bang the kids out and keep going as long as you can and maybe have some side hustles.

It's the governments, lords, and the system that's really the problem they are the biggest workshy scroungers of all.

Agree…..it the game not the players. 

When I take over the world would change the game though 😉

[sancho panza]

13 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

Francis has just confirmed my Silver bias

 

I think it's reasonably well documented that silver arrives alte to the PMs party and runs hard.

from nalaysing the gold silver ratio over time,the only thing it does with regularity is call the top of the gold market as it clsoes.

we jsut got some mroe fre and paas today.

5 hours ago, kibuc said:

 

Looks like it's Newmont Price Share to Gold, which is a retarded metric (very fitting for Tavi's profile, ngl). I don't know what sharecount Newmont had in the 90s but I do know they basically doubled their count in 2018 overnight to buy Goldcorp. Share price only matters if you're a holder. For long-time comparison purposes it's useless.

 

Edit: looks like it was 0.2B in the early naughties, compared to 0.8B to now. And people dare to ask why mining stonks suck.

 

https://companiesmarketcap.com/newmont/shares-outstanding/

thats what I love with theis thread,i saw that chart and thought there was likely something worng with it(tavi does have form for using artistic licence in his charts) and you and harley call it out beautfiully.

not that i discagree witht he thesis but the msot compelling chart of the last 50 pages(at least ) was this from @Cattle Prod on page 136.if there was a reason for buying gold here it si

5 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

Funnily enough I watched this yesterday and Craig Hemke is pretty scathing about Newmont and Barrick.

 

 

I think what people like this guy miss is that you dont trade the underlying and the people who can dig it out effectively,you're looking for who the suckers are going to bid up.

siunds harsh,but barriska dn newmont will be amongst the first recipients of insto moeny.when the instos bid up those two and agnico etc,then I plan to tkae our cash and bid up the tier twos before they arrive.

If I wanted effeicent diggers of the yeloow stuff barrick andNEM wouldnt be it.

decl :long NEM 6% at $44 and Barrick 5% at circa $15

Edited March 29 by sancho panza

[Bien Pensant]

8 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I had a payment not that long ago that was from someone buying the rights off someone else for an album I made in the 1980s, which a payment to the band was in the contract. Could have been classed as capital gains, but I took it as income and stuck it in my SIPP for the extra tax relief.

Probably did the right thing.

I would have thought that IP follows the general rule of 'income = fruit, capital = tree' and that, therefore, royalties would usually be income but the rights themselves capital.

However, it seems that courts have traditionally taken the view that basically anything you get for a copyright is income, on the basis that creating copyrights is an artist's 'profession or vocation' and, as such, all receipts therefrom should be treated as income under the old Schedule D (now Part 2 of ITTOIA 2005).

See BIM35725 and CG68250.

[wherebee]

GDXJ running up to 38 today.  remember it was 31 at end feb.  That's 20% up in just over a month.  Like someone else said, this is a widowmaker but I have fun trading in and out in the range 30-45 and back again.  This time I think I'll take half at 40+; we might be on the cusp of a sharp gold breakout in which case GDXj might go much higher and I'd hate to lose it.

Ideally I'd like one more dip down to low 30's, and then the election in the USA looms - imagine what will happen with a black swan event causing a rocket in gold demand for safety; has been as high as 120 before.

 

[Lightscribe]

39 minutes ago, wherebee said:

GDXJ running up to 38 today.  remember it was 31 at end feb.  That's 20% up in just over a month.  Like someone else said, this is a widowmaker but I have fun trading in and out in the range 30-45 and back again.  This time I think I'll take half at 40+; we might be on the cusp of a sharp gold breakout in which case GDXj might go much higher and I'd hate to lose it.

Ideally I'd like one more dip down to low 30's, and then the election in the USA looms - imagine what will happen with a black swan event causing a rocket in gold demand for safety; has been as high as 120 before.

 

Yes I’m firmly in the Hunter camp on the direction from here. $50 silver, $3000 gold in the initial run up. I don’t see many pullbacks left anymore as the train is leaving the station and silver elastic has been manipulated for so long.

Golds left it’s correlation with a falling $, DXY, S&P500 and gold is all ripping at the same time. The factor on what’s changed is because of heading into a stagflationary environment in 2024 like I said last year.

No one believes inflation is going below 2% and nor does gold. But the asset market is acting like it is as if rates are already dropping. When/if the Fed does it will send into overdrive. But those cuts will not be because of the wider financial environment, it will be political. As I said the other day Powell is almost formed a cartel with the other central banks to cut regardless and use 4% as a new metric.

It’s a US led meltup, G7 countries languish aimlessly watching dwindling into recession whilst Asia is buying PMs to protect their own currencies. Asia is preparing for something big. 

When the US meltup implodes, you’ll want to have cash reserves aside. That will be the long anticipated BK. Gold and silver crash too (like 2020) but will first out the blocks. Then in the commodity super cycle until 2030 from there pick your target. $10000 gold beyond etc.

[wherebee]

2 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Yes I’m firmly in the Hunter camp on the direction from here. $50 silver, $3000 gold in the initial run up. I don’t see many pullbacks left anymore as the train is leaving the station and silver elastic has been manipulated for so long.

Golds left it’s correlation with a falling $, DXY, S&P500 and gold is all ripping at the same time. The factor on what’s changed is because of heading into a stagflationary environment in 2024 like I said last year.

No one believes inflation is going below 2% and nor does gold. But the asset market is acting like it is as if rates are already dropping. When/if the Fed does it will send into overdrive. But those cuts will not be because of the wider financial environment, it will be political. As I said the other day Powell is almost formed a cartel with the other central banks to cut regardless and use 4% as a new metric.

It’s a US led meltup, G7 countries languish aimlessly watching dwindling into recession whilst Asia is buying PMs to protect their own currencies. Asia is preparing for something big. 

When the US meltup implodes, you’ll want to have cash reserves aside. That will be the long anticipated BK. Gold and silver crash too (like 2020) but will first out the blocks. Then in the commodity super cycle until 2030 from there pick your target. $10000 gold beyond etc.

I've spoken to a number of financial sector people in NZ and Aus in the past 1-3 months.  All of them believe rates are coming down, with no upturn afterwards.  The majority of people here in Aus also believe it - I was drinking with a mate a few weeks back who is taking out a mortgage on variable rates for over 500k as his mortgage broker said he'll be able to get a better deal next year.

It's really shocking; it normally only takes 60 second of me throwing a few numbers about (80% of all US dollars in existence were made in the last 10 years, and they are still printing billions for Ukraine) for example and you can see the lightbulb go on.  Then you either get panic or anger.  Quite funny, really.

Me, my focus now is on timing of liquidating things like bitcoin profits, small miner profits, paying the right CGT on those, and then getting ready for reinvesting after the BK.  Problem is I don't trust brokers to make it through the BK any more - my experiences with POLYMETAL showed me nothing is yours unless you hold the certificate in your hands.

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, wherebee said:

I've spoken to a number of financial sector people in NZ and Aus in the past 1-3 months.  All of them believe rates are coming down, with no upturn afterwards.  The majority of people here in Aus also believe it - I was drinking with a mate a few weeks back who is taking out a mortgage on variable rates for over 500k as his mortgage broker said he'll be able to get a better deal next year.

It's really shocking; it normally only takes 60 second of me throwing a few numbers about (80% of all US dollars in existence were made in the last 10 years, and they are still printing billions for Ukraine) for example and you can see the lightbulb go on.  Then you either get panic or anger.  Quite funny, really.

Me, my focus now is on timing of liquidating things like bitcoin profits, small miner profits, paying the right CGT on those, and then getting ready for reinvesting after the BK.  Problem is I don't trust brokers to make it through the BK any more - my experiences with POLYMETAL showed me nothing is yours unless you hold the certificate in your hands.

By no one, I meant the central banks not believing their own kool aid.

Which is exactly why asset managers are going to feel pain for some time yet.

Why would you need active investment managers when you can just throw money at Nvidia, Reddit and Truth Social and all underlying fundamentals have gone out the window?

The market has turned into an NFT meme economy. But as long as they can ride this sucker out until the election they don’t care. Question is will it last until then.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/warren-buffett-says-stock-market-is-becoming-casino-like-how-to-invest-and-not-gamble/ar-BB1knxT9

[Harley]

6 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I think it's reasonably well documented that silver arrives alte to the PMs party and runs hard.

from nalaysing the gold silver ratio over time,the only thing it does with regularity is call the top of the gold market as it clsoes.

we jsut got some mroe fre and paas today.

thats what I love with theis thread,i saw that chart and thought there was likely something worng with it(tavi does have form for using artistic licence in his charts) and you and harley call it out beautfiully.

not that i discagree witht he thesis but the msot compelling chart of the last 50 pages(at least ) was this from @Cattle Prod on page 136.if there was a reason for buying gold here it si

I think what people like this guy miss is that you dont trade the underlying and the people who can dig it out effectively,you're looking for who the suckers are going to bid up.

siunds harsh,but barriska dn newmont will be amongst the first recipients of insto moeny.when the instos bid up those two and agnico etc,then I plan to tkae our cash and bid up the tier twos before they arrive.

If I wanted effeicent diggers of the yeloow stuff barrick andNEM wouldnt be it.

decl :long NEM 6% at $44 and Barrick 5% at circa $15

Tbf. I had a look at the NEM chart and have opinions.  But need I do the individual miners versus GDGB and GDJB?

[Harley]

3 hours ago, wherebee said:

GDXJ running up to 38 today.  remember it was 31 at end feb.  That's 20% up in just over a month.  Like someone else said, this is a widowmaker but I have fun trading in and out in the range 30-45 and back again.  This time I think I'll take half at 40+; we might be on the cusp of a sharp gold breakout in which case GDXj might go much higher and I'd hate to lose it.

Ideally I'd like one more dip down to low 30's, and then the election in the USA looms - imagine what will happen with a black swan event causing a rocket in gold demand for safety; has been as high as 120 before.

 

Yep, its track record meant we went in light on the signal.  Now gone up a bit too much so now chasing.  Hopefully a pullback on yesterday's pop.