Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[DurhamBorn]

Welcome to a macro roadmap.Very good,its total collapse or take down welfare.Thats the choice now.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/03/09/lockdowns-money-printing-destroyed-western-economies/

[Noallegiance]

16 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Welcome to a macro roadmap.Very good,its total collapse or take down welfare.Thats the choice now.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/03/09/lockdowns-money-printing-destroyed-western-economies/

I'm hoping that this appearing in the media is the beginning of somebody somewhere making choices that will stop your road map getting to its end. Even if it does take a decade or two from here.

[King Penda]

27 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

A lodger will be worth around £140k in savings or pension.My partner has a chinese uni student in at the moment,iv repaired 3 years of jobs since she moved in,my partner is amazed.Tight t shirts and tiny shorts wandering around saying im glad you fix bath i will have long soak in there mean id pay her rent 

Well a Ukrainian is worth 500 every 4 weeks aready . I might get one when I move house . I could get one now and get a single chair bed or sleep on the sofa for the kids visit . They never bother with there bedroom they always pinch my bed . They row like cat a dog but always go sleep cuddling each other ffs 

[King Penda]

5 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I'm hoping that this appearing in the media is the beginning of somebody somewhere making choices that will stop your road map getting to its end. Even if it does take a decade or two from here.

All this does is make single men who own there house even more attractive what’s not to like 

[Eventually Right]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Welcome to a macro roadmap.Very good,its total collapse or take down welfare.Thats the choice now.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/03/09/lockdowns-money-printing-destroyed-western-economies/

One of the comments on that article-I wish I could disagree with it…

I'm increasingly of the opinion we are past the point where this option even exists.

One of the inherent issues with democracies is what happens when 60% vote to help themselves to the earnings of the other 40%.

We are now well past this point, combining the non-working benefits class (including pensioners), with the public sector class is a voting majority.

No party campaigning to reduce welfare and state spending and support workers can win an election - workers simply aren't a majority anymore.

It's going to take an actual economic meltdown, possibly a period of hyperinflation and maybe a degree of civil unrest to actually force cuts to the state and the creation of a new social contract.

[ThoughtCriminal]

6 hours ago, Eventually Right said:

One of the comments on that article-I wish I could disagree with it…

I'm increasingly of the opinion we are past the point where this option even exists.

One of the inherent issues with democracies is what happens when 60% vote to help themselves to the earnings of the other 40%.

We are now well past this point, combining the non-working benefits class (including pensioners), with the public sector class is a voting majority.

No party campaigning to reduce welfare and state spending and support workers can win an election - workers simply aren't a majority anymore.

It's going to take an actual economic meltdown, possibly a period of hyperinflation and maybe a degree of civil unrest to actually force cuts to the state and the creation of a new social contract.

Has to be a Dosbodder.

[BadAlchemy]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Welcome to a macro roadmap.Very good,its total collapse or take down welfare.Thats the choice now.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/03/09/lockdowns-money-printing-destroyed-western-economies/

Nope, I dont buy it. A journalist speaks out against money printing... now, when it's too late, not 4 years ago when the money printing was actually happening. Okay , let's say they were too afraid to speak out back then, or let's say they are just too fucking dumb, or slow, to appreciate the inflationary damage printing £500 billion into a non-producing economy will have until it actually hits them in the face a few years later. But then she says stuff like this...

"Are you having to cope with a pandemic that obliges you to shut down all human interaction and pay people to stay at home? Or faced with an unexpected war which causes drastic, unaffordable increases in the cost of energy?"

Sorry lady, you need to come completely clean... there was NO obligation to shut things down that way for the 'pandemic', and the war was certainly NOT 'unexpected'. Both events were pushed through by western politicians BECAUSE more money printing was required.. because the first lots of printing they did just kicks the can a little way down the road, that's all.

Until the journalists come completely clean on this then it tells me they are just too scared, or too dumb/slow... but, more likely, they are just laying out a narrative for their masters who wish to avoid a noose around their necks and to carry on with the next stage of enriching themselves at our expense.

[Pip321]

12 hours ago, Jesus Wept said:

OPTIMiSM - that was the plan from 4 years ago. It worked well - I cannot complain. Just wished I’d let the winners run a little more - took profits far too early in Potash and Miners - as I bought at the very bottom and was new to the game and couldn’t believe the profits ! 
 

Oil

Potash

Telecoms (& Tobacco)

Infrastructure

Miners

Silver

Metal (Gold, Palladium, Platinum)

Dabbled in a few other sectors as well - Glaxo, Rolls Royce.

The plan is to wait for a bit more of a fall - see if the tech bubble bursts and takes the market down across the board - before getting back into Miners and Potash and oil. Bought some Sibanye the other day and some BT and more VOD. Going to sit on cash until after the summer and wait and see for the next few months.

It’s great to get a feel of what some of you guys are doing….and have done.

I have that feeling re a bubble pop and it taking wider markets down albeit irrationally…so I am waiting a bit. 

I have been ‘playing at the side of the pool’ but have moved from a mainly Pru Fund in the SIPP (not bad foundation fund but 28 days notice to switch in this environment is too dangerous), cash ISAs and Property (with some leverage) to something more akin to this thread. 

% are tricky for me because I am still close to 50% in property, have tactical leverage and I include my own home. 

Overall (excluding my home) I was probably  property 65%, 25% Pru Fund, 10% cash.

Now I am 45% property, 35% cash, 10% Pru Fund, 10% direct equities ie miners, teleco and gold miners.

Almost of if the above is tax protected in ISA and SIPP…but the house sales have made that harder. Max SIPP and ISA on 6th April (for Mrs Pip too) will help. 

Intent is to reduce property further and have a Pre BK position (heavy investable cash) and post BK (heavy in equities, PMs, EMs, Commods etc)

As I sell property the % swings a fair bit because of leverage (albeit small) and it reduces the ‘overall balance sheet’ which I like. 

Ultimate position for me is the ‘cockroach approach’ ie 25% evenly spread ie property, equities, cash and physical assets.

Whilst I agree with the guidance on this thread completely my only issue is I believe the BK will give us opportunities to buy what we want then. The only exception is PMs which I know fall back in a crash but I am starting to imagine they may fall back from £3k to £2.5k and ounce, rather than the current £1.7k an ounce. So PMs is the one area I am wary of missing out on. 

The other areas ie EMs, Commods and maybe Telecos I play with but am wary of going too long because in a BK I see them becoming irrationally cheap. And I will fill up then. I do buy them in dips but am tending to take profits ‘just in case’ 

Whilst I write this detail to share it’s also to remind myself I have a plan and I can check in on it every few months. Reality is post BK my plan might be radically different depending what gets hit the most.

But this thread is the most useful steer I have ever had. Happy days. 😉👍🏻

 

[M S E Refugee]

On the Silver Forum there's loads up for sale, plenty of Gold on sale for the spot price or even under spot.

Nobody is buying anything, not sure if this due to a lack of money or a lack of belief in Gold's ability to go much higher in the short term.

[Axeman123]

1 minute ago, M S E Refugee said:

On the Silver Forum there's loads up for sale, plenty of Gold on sale for the spot price or even under spot.

Nobody is buying anything, not sure if this due to a lack of money or a lack of belief in Gold's ability to go much higher in the short term.

Lots of people that bought gold at previous highs and held through the trough can now exit at a profit. It would be weird if there wasn't selling from them here. It also shows there is still a wall of worry in place, which leaves fuel to take it higher.

Silver has the opposite problem, it hasn't run yet and a lot of people are giving up at a loss.

[Heart's Ease]

45 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

It’s great to get a feel of what some of you guys are doing….and have done.

I have that feeling re a bubble pop and it taking wider markets down albeit irrationally…so I am waiting a bit. 

I have been ‘playing at the side of the pool’ but have moved from a mainly Pru Fund in the SIPP (not bad foundation fund but 28 days notice to switch in this environment is too dangerous), cash ISAs and Property (with some leverage) to something more akin to this thread. 

% are tricky for me because I am still close to 50% in property, have tactical leverage and I include my own home. 

Overall (excluding my home) I was probably  property 65%, 25% Pru Fund, 10% cash.

Now I am 45% property, 35% cash, 10% Pru Fund, 10% direct equities ie miners, teleco and gold miners.

Almost of if the above is tax protected in ISA and SIPP…but the house sales have made that harder. Max SIPP and ISA on 6th April (for Mrs Pip too) will help. 

Intent is to reduce property further and have a Pre BK position (heavy investable cash) and post BK (heavy in equities, PMs, EMs, Commods etc)

As I sell property the % swings a fair bit because of leverage (albeit small) and it reduces the ‘overall balance sheet’ which I like. 

Ultimate position for me is the ‘cockroach approach’ ie 25% evenly spread ie property, equities, cash and physical assets.

Whilst I agree with the guidance on this thread completely my only issue is I believe the BK will give us opportunities to buy what we want then. The only exception is PMs which I know fall back in a crash but I am starting to imagine they may fall back from £3k to £2.5k and ounce, rather than the current £1.7k an ounce. So PMs is the one area I am wary of missing out on. 

The other areas ie EMs, Commods and maybe Telecos I play with but am wary of going too long because in a BK I see them becoming irrationally cheap. And I will fill up then. I do buy them in dips but am tending to take profits ‘just in case’ 

Whilst I write this detail to share it’s also to remind myself I have a plan and I can check in on it every few months. Reality is post BK my plan might be radically different depending what gets hit the most.

But this thread is the most useful steer I have ever had. Happy days. 😉👍🏻

 

OPTIMiSM!  We also had STOMP.  Silver, telecoms & tobacco, oil, miners, potash.  I like 'em both.  .

Personal diversification is key, though.  I'm also long e.g. bags of coal, fence posts, building community etc.

 

[Jesus Wept]

32 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

OPTIMiSM!  We also had STOMP.  Silver, telecoms & tobacco, oil, miners, potash.  I like 'em both.  .

Personal diversification is key, though.  I'm also long e.g. bags of coal, fence posts, building community etc.

 

Aye - I came up with the acronym STOMP - about April 2020 -

….based on the ideas and thoughts of others on here I must hasten to add.
 

I was being educated. I did not even understand how ISAs worked ! @DurhamBorn et al nailed it spot on with Potash, Oil and miners and silver back in 2020 - unbelievable returns. Just wish I’d had the capital then that I have now ! Still waiting for telecoms to run mind ! However with dividends even including VOD it’s been ok. 

…….and then I think someone bettered STOMP with the acronym OPTIMiSM - which I preferred. 
 

ps - what were the Infrastructure (I) companies to look at? I never really went after those - maybe they are next ? 

Edited March 10 by Jesus Wept

[AlfredTheLittle]

9 hours ago, Eventually Right said:

One of the comments on that article-I wish I could disagree with it…

I'm increasingly of the opinion we are past the point where this option even exists.

One of the inherent issues with democracies is what happens when 60% vote to help themselves to the earnings of the other 40%.

We are now well past this point, combining the non-working benefits class (including pensioners), with the public sector class is a voting majority.

No party campaigning to reduce welfare and state spending and support workers can win an election - workers simply aren't a majority anymore.

It's going to take an actual economic meltdown, possibly a period of hyperinflation and maybe a degree of civil unrest to actually force cuts to the state and the creation of a new social contract.

The 40% can, of course, opt to join the 60%, which is what's happening and why the number on bennies is so large already.

[Jesus Wept]

34 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

ps - what were the Infrastructure (I) companies to look at? I never really went after those - maybe they are next ? 

Just googled.

 

Remembered that I bought Caterpillar and Enbridge at the time. @DurhamBorn cheers 🍻 

sold way way too early on CAT. Ones to revisit one day in the future? 
 

 

Edited March 10 by Jesus Wept

[spygirl]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Welcome to a macro roadmap.Very good,its total collapse or take down welfare.Thats the choice now.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/03/09/lockdowns-money-printing-destroyed-western-economies/

Fucking hell.

Has Evan Pritchard gone trans?

The lockdown can be easily levied on Chinky imports.

[spygirl]

2 hours ago, BadAlchemy said:

Nope, I dont buy it. A journalist speaks out against money printing... now, when it's too late, not 4 years ago when the money printing was actually happening. Okay , let's say they were too afraid to speak out back then, or let's say they are just too fucking dumb, or slow, to appreciate the inflationary damage printing £500 billion into a non-producing economy will have until it actually hits them in the face a few years later. But then she says stuff like this...

"Are you having to cope with a pandemic that obliges you to shut down all human interaction and pay people to stay at home? Or faced with an unexpected war which causes drastic, unaffordable increases in the cost of energy?"

Sorry lady, you need to come completely clean... there was NO obligation to shut things down that way for the 'pandemic', and the war was certainly NOT 'unexpected'. Both events were pushed through by western politicians BECAUSE more money printing was required.. because the first lots of printing they did just kicks the can a little way down the road, that's all.

Until the journalists come completely clean on this then it tells me they are just too scared, or too dumb/slow... but, more likely, they are just laying out a narrative for their masters who wish to avoid a noose around their necks and to carry on with the next stage of enriching themselves at our expense.

If you haven't work out by now ... if a journo isn't a daft lefty, then they are prob just daft.

[montecristo]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

On the Silver Forum there's loads up for sale, plenty of Gold on sale for the spot price or even under spot.

Nobody is buying anything, not sure if this due to a lack of money or a lack of belief in Gold's ability to go much higher in the short term.

[Sasquatch]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

On the Silver Forum there's loads up for sale, plenty of Gold on sale for the spot price or even under spot.

Nobody is buying anything, not sure if this due to a lack of money or a lack of belief in Gold's ability to go much higher in the short term.

Time for a PM ebay and auction update. I keep a close eye on both.

Selling prices for full sovereigns are now circa £410 to £425 on ebay + delivery,

Silver britannias  usually up at about £28 to £30 each, a little less if bought in bulk.

Prices at local auction houses are crazy. I've recently seen people pay £500 for ordinary sovereigns and £300+ for half sovereigns (including commission). Modern 1oz silver coins don't appear that often but always sell for silly money. Best value are the grubby looking pre 47 or pre 1920 coins mixed in with non PM coins. 

[Errol]

Record Chinese buying of gold currently.

[Errol]

And of course unprecedented levels of purchasing by Central Banks.

[Chewing Grass]

I'm just putting this here to avoid the EVangelists, data from the America Transportation Research Institute reveals electrifying the US Truck Fleet with 1 round of vehicles to remove all Diesel Trucks would require gross Electricity Production to increase 40% and 30 years total global production for each of the three following elements, Nickel, Cobalt, Graphite and ignores the demand from the rest of the world.

In addition 371,000 additional parking spaces would be required complete with DC fast chargers for 'refuelling' which would take 3-4 hours per vehicle.

The figures do not include battery replacement every 6.3 years.

 

[MrFanciful]

14 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Welcome to a macro roadmap.Very good,its total collapse or take down welfare.Thats the choice now.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/03/09/lockdowns-money-printing-destroyed-western-economies/

In case people get hit with the paywall like I just did.
https://web.archive.org/web/20240309142727/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/03/09/lockdowns-money-printing-destroyed-western-economies/

[Pip321]

12 hours ago, Eventually Right said:

One of the comments on that article-I wish I could disagree with it…

I'm increasingly of the opinion we are past the point where this option even exists.

One of the inherent issues with democracies is what happens when 60% vote to help themselves to the earnings of the other 40%.

We are now well past this point, combining the non-working benefits class (including pensioners), with the public sector class is a voting majority.

No party campaigning to reduce welfare and state spending and support workers can win an election - workers simply aren't a majority anymore.

It's going to take an actual economic meltdown, possibly a period of hyperinflation and maybe a degree of civil unrest to actually force cuts to the state and the creation of a new social contract.

We can say the transfer of wealth from private sector production and savings to public sector pensions and benefits is all wrong but fundamentally it’s about understanding why the politicians might be doing this. We can guess they are stupid but they will have at least some advisers pointing all this eventual systemic failure out to them. 

So the way I rationale it (ie why are they protecting bennies, pensions, immigration etc) is to drive consumption. That keeps GDP up, tax receipts look better and the gov can borrow more.

And the status quo is important because if >50% benefit from it then the polos get enough votes to remain in power and take more from the big bad economy for themselves.

It’s a Ponzi scheme, it will fail….but until it does those in charge will take what they can  

The key is the polos don’t care….they are globalists and are now so wealthy that even if everything collapses they will be ‘relatively’ wealthy and many not even in this country anymore.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

I'm just putting this here to avoid the EVangelists, data from the America Transportation Research Institute reveals electrifying the US Truck Fleet with 1 round of vehicles to remove all Diesel Trucks would require gross Electricity Production to increase 40% and 30 years total global production for each of the three following elements, Nickel, Cobalt, Graphite and ignores the demand from the rest of the world.

In addition 371,000 additional parking spaces would be required complete with DC fast chargers for 'refuelling' which would take 3-4 hours per vehicle.

The figures do not include battery replacement every 6.3 years.

 

When i left Cummins,who build the engines,we were working on electric,but the big focus was on Hydrogen with Hyundai.Cummins were covering their bets,but leaning to Hydrogen,the same as Toyota in cars.I worked in Emmision Solutions,and lots going on with Platinum for the cats and fuel cells etc.With trucks you use the engines as braking systems as well,without an engine a full truck will go through braking systems every few months.

[JMD]

On 09/03/2024 at 08:18, jamtomorrow said:

I bring glad tidings, it hasn't finished forming a bottom yet -

Even better news zooming out, it'll be a multi-year triple bottom once it breaks out - I'm no scribbler, but that's very very bullish?

Decl: equal weight BTC vs gold kg

Not looking for buying/trading advise of course, but do you expect the BTC price to fall back soon (potentially a big correction?), especially as it's next halving event is in April? I believe that cycle highs are typically 12-18 months after each BTC halving - so the recent ramp up in price is unusual, and probably due to the money going into the new ETFs? 

Edited March 10 by JMD