Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[Lightscribe]

33 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

Territorial Army. We should all join, then when one of these bastards gives us our own money back and calls it a dividend we can get down there, lick a couple of rounds off in the lobby.

Actually it’s Teaching Assistant. Basically all this working lark and stocks and shares rubbish is a mugs game.

What he means is that we should have just consulted TA (Teaching Assistants) on how to maximise the ol tax crediteroonies on 16hrs with a couple of ADHDs slid in there.

Win-Win.

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Jesus Wept said:

Neither just my gut / common sense - market cap / related to PE profit / revenue etc

What’s TA? 

Technical analysis (of a stock price chart to reveal future up/down trends).

Edited April 9 by JMD

[Errol]

Strangely, that chart correlates (like everything else) to the closure of the gold window ...

[ThoughtCriminal]

NVIDIA's relentless march has come to an end. Interesting to see if it's temporary.

 

 

Edited April 10 by ThoughtCriminal

[AlfredTheLittle]

7 hours ago, Jesus Wept said:

Yep - I do a bit of the old “TA”.

Whats been working really well for me is buying when the line is low down - and the share price is low, and then selling when the graph line goes up - and the share price is high. 
I like to call it a “buy low - sell high” strategy. Seems to be working. 🍻 

You've got it the wrong way around, you're supposed to buy high sell low. 

[wherebee]

7 hours ago, Jesus Wept said:

Yep - I do a bit of the old “TA”.

Whats been working really well for me is buying when the line is low down - and the share price is low, and then selling when the graph line goes up - and the share price is high. 
I like to call it a “buy low - sell high” strategy. Seems to be working. 🍻 

Have you been spying on me?  I invented that tactic.  It only fucks up when your broker sells your stock without permission.

[AlfredTheLittle]

1 minute ago, Jesus Wept said:

Oh I’ve done that a few times.
I have even done the buy high, and then not be able to sell at all. 

Actually, I think that may be @Loki's joke, I should have credited him. I'm very good at doing it anyway.

[ThoughtCriminal]

16 hours ago, TNS said:

I'm a fucking idiot, mentioned it other day but forgot to buy at 4.5, what a tosser.

I'm picturing you saying this to yourself in the mirror:

"Call yourself a Dosbodder? Can't even buy a share you recommended. You're a pathetic faggot, you worthless little worm! You make me sick!"

'Who are you talking to honey?'

"Er, nobody dearest!"

😂

[CannonFodder]

9 hours ago, Majorpain said:

 

Seems to have been a blinding success.

Also I believe the above may me a file photo, some media is saying that Xi was too busy to meet yellen so sent a minister.

 

 

[Cattle Prod]

This is a peculiar article 

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/09/biggest-north-sea-oil-find-in-decades-drilled-first-time/

 

Firstly, it was found decades ago you idiots. It’s heavy oil, hard and expensive to recover.  This article reads like it was written by a lobbyist for Enquest and the govt department of energy, it probably was. The windfall tax has hit Enquest hard, they have been vocal about it. I have heard nothing on the grapevine but my interpretation of this article is they mighty threaten to shut down Kraken early if they don’t row back the tax, and are dangling possible satellite fields as a carrot.

 

[Harley]

Sold our first commodity position yesterday on a sell signal.  A small position in SPAG (Agribusiness).  Arguably a bit early as could have waited a day or two longer to confirm.  But it was a good one for us and good to stay flexible and true to our algos.  Plus we put an equal amount into ags.

It's hard as many pullbacks are not enough to warrant in and out as the next buy signal can be at a higher price by the time the data turns.  Will watch and learn (lot easier when your money's involved!).  Maybe should wait for the weekly to turn if it's not too violent a move on the daily.

Chain harrow turned up yesterday.  A beast.  Need a quad bike though!

Edited April 10 by Harley

[Errol]

28 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

 

Seems to have been a blinding success.

Also I believe the above may me a file photo, some media is saying that Xi was too busy to meet yellen so sent a minister.

 

 

Xi did meet Lavrov, however. In an overt snub to the US.

[AlfredTheLittle]

1 hour ago, Jesus Wept said:

 

The UK's biggest supermarket chain said pre-tax profits hit £2.3bn, up from £882m, while sales rose by 4.4% to £68.2bn in the year to 24 February.

The company said price inflation in groceries had "lessened substantially".

However, its boss Ken Murphy said the firm was conscious "things were still difficult for many customers".

Tesco had "worked hard" to cut prices, he said, and "doubled down" on schemes aimed at offering shoppers better value for money, such as its Aldi Price Match offer and Clubcard promotions.

 

Not that fucking hard if they were able to triple their profits. 

Surely a windfall tax would be in order for a company profiting in this way from unearned inflation?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/may/10/tesco-chairman-energy-windfall-tax-john-allan

[Pip321]

36 minutes ago, Harley said:

Sold our first commodity position yesterday on a sell signal.  A small position in SPAG (Agribusiness).  Arguably a bit early as could have waited a day or two longer to confirm.  But it was a good one for us and good to stay flexible and true to our algos.  Plus we put an equal amount into ags.

It's hard as many pullbacks are not enough to warrant in and out as the next buy signal can be at a higher price by the time the data turns.  Will watch and learn (lot easier when your money's involved!).  Maybe should wait for the weekly to turn if it's not too violent a move on the daily.

Chain harrow turned up yesterday.  A beast.  Need a quad bike though!

I reflected in my pussy weak approach to buying and wish I had gone deeper and longer. (😉) 

Now I am ok with commodities because I still believe DH (mystic Dave) is right and we will get another big big chance to buy. But it’s those pesky precious metals that are the issue. I think $1800 an ounce for gold is a memory.

So still swimming in the shallow end…..messing about with some light trades but heavily in cash overall 

My GJGB and Blackrock gold are up 35/30% respectively and I do hold them….but wish I had more. . 

So instead I am holding all the PM miners absolutely regardless of increases in the hope they either double (in which case they reach my preferred allocation themselves) or they collapse (in which case I buy much much more). 

Of course it they rocket to the moon and gold hits $20k an ounce I may review my adamant position to not sell 😂😂

ps….to all, could you stop buying Sibayne, Abdn, Ashmore etc…..let it drop a bit so I can get some, that would be great 😉

 

[Pip321]

1 hour ago, CannonFodder said:

 

Seems to have been a blinding success.

Also I believe the above may me a file photo, some media is saying that Xi was too busy to meet yellen so sent a minister.

 

 

They were told during the visit that the ass print in the wheat was Angelia Jolie’s. When infact it later turned out it was Yellen’s. 

504k wheat ton order….cancelled 🤢

 

[sancho panza]

Worth noting US CRE still in deep trouble.It appears as if the banks have offloaded the risk in the main to either bond holders or pension funds or REIT but time will tell. 

 

The key thing here is cost of carry ie there comes a point when the annuall maintenance costs take up over 20% of rental income.From that moment on its downhill in terms of capital value.Estimate for maintenance on this building circa$2.8mn per year.So current vendors losing money big time. 

If these figures are correct then this building has dropped from $206mn in 2006 to under $2mn in 2024

 

 

https://www.consultengsurvivor.com/the-cost-of-building-maintenance

 

Edited April 10 by sancho panza

[Heart's Ease]

Is there a thread already about Labour's announcement about cracking down on (legal) tax avoidance? 

Wtf.  

 

 

[JMD]

On 02/04/2024 at 12:32, Axeman123 said:

 

That sounds like someone I need to do some reading on, thanks.

 

Re Meb Faber, not sure how if you have been reading up on him, but I meant to post this at the time.

His main site is Cambria Investment but he also posts free stuff below. For example look under categories/quarterly cape ratios, for data he suggests can be used for doing country trend investing.

https://theideafarm.com/c/about

 

 

Edited April 10 by JMD

[Majorpain]

3 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

Is there a thread already about Labour's announcement about cracking down on (legal) tax avoidance? 

Wtf.  

I had high expectations of Labour incompetance, but they are still managing to exceed them handsomely.

Even Crayons (Rayner) hasn't even managed to set foot in the No 10 door and is fucking things up, when Rishi/Hunt hand them the lit ticking timebomb that is the UK economy its going to rabbit in headlights time for the entire party.

[DurhamBorn]

10 hours ago, Castlevania said:

What happened to the Asian student?

She has left for 2 months,gone to Singapore (where she is from,Chinese heritage).Shes coming back end of May.She was coming back to ours but my lass refused to keep the room open for two months for her,i said we should do bathroom/boiler while she is gone and keep room for her,my lass said you have never said that for the wet weekend blokes we usually get   .All that is left is her size 6 Mcdonalds uniform.

[leonardratso]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

She has left for 2 months,gone to Singapore (where she is from,Chinese heritage).Shes coming back end of May.She was coming back to ours but my lass refused to keep the room open for two months for her,i said we should do bathroom/boiler while she is gone and keep room for her,my lass said you have never said that for the wet weekend blokes we usually get   .All that is left is her size 6 Mcdonalds uniform.

And the memories .....

[JMD]

20 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

Is there a thread already about Labour's announcement about cracking down on (legal) tax avoidance? 

Wtf.  

 

 

Yep, she is obviously a very intelligent women!?  But even so, it's depressingly the same-old same-old cracking down on tax 'avoidance' - ahem 'evasion' you stupid bint!!...   

However tbh that isn't the part that makes me angry, so does she even mention cracking 'open' Tax Havens?    ---Nah, thought not.

Edited April 10 by JMD

[Pip321]

5 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

I had high expectations of Labour incompetance, but they are still managing to exceed them handsomely.

Even Crayons (Rayner) hasn't even managed to set foot in the No 10 door and is fucking things up, when Rishi/Hunt hand them the lit ticking timebomb that is the UK economy its going to rabbit in headlights time for the entire party.

I am a political nomad with no home anymore. I describe the position as follows to any daft bastard in the real world stupid enough to ask me

The Tories have taken us the the edge of Niagara falls in a canoe and we can’t get out of the stream and we will (at some point) fall over the edge.

And if labour get in they will turn the canoe nose first into the direction of the fall and we will go straight over. 

The bus is already going over the cliff….it’s doesn’t matter anymore who is driving

The only difference between the world financial situation and the picture below…is the guy in the picture will survive cos he is prepared and has a helmet on🛶

 

 

[Democorruptcy]

22 hours ago, Jay said:

Thanks for posting..he writes well..

Mentions American role being challenged by other countries..

us economy resilience funded by government deficit ..further spending needed so stickier rates and inflation…

Qe happening so he is cautious..

talks about heart..sugar coated anecdote 

beieves in strong us domestically and internationally no alternative to the us..

My take is that be afraid..

Another thing he mentioned was shrinking public markets. A peak of 7,300 companies in the US in 1996 to 4,300 now. Plus there's a lot more firms backed by private equity. I think this is going to be a problem for the UK markets. The US is going to want more of our larger companies to move over there. Also I'm not convinced the PISCES thing that Hunt announced in the budget will make things better for UK markets, it might encourage some smaller but growing firms to delist, to avoid regulations etc.

[AlfredTheLittle]

26 minutes ago, JMD said:

Yep, she is obviously a very intelligent women!?  But even so, it's depressingly the same-old same-old cracking down on tax 'avoidance' - ahem 'evasion' you stupid bint!!...   

However tbh that isn't the part that makes me angry, so does she even mention cracking 'open' Tax Havens?    ---Nah, thought not.

There is no consideration at all that maybe the govt are over spending or mis-spending enormous amounts, all they're doing is looking for ways to get their hands on yet more loot that they can waste.