Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Formerly said:

Until recently it was impossible to save enough into a DC pension to buy an annuity equivalent to upper public sector pensions. A pot cap of around £1m and annuity rates in the low single digit percentages, meant linked incomes of £50k were about the absolute maximum. This is taking the pension from SRA. Forget retiring early or spouse benefits. The difference between PS pensions and buying your own is incredible.

Yes, it's annuity rates I use.  But I've only been talking to teachers and co on medium salaries/pensions.

Talking to someone higher up on a larger pension and I'll just have to say it's simply impossible. 

And I haven't even mentioned the lump sums some get/got.  A wife told me a while back her sergeant hubby got £150k at some relatively young age.

Edited April 25 by Harley

[Harley]

8 hours ago, Funn3r said:

Posted in the "Covid 1984" by @MrXxxx

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/public-services-may-be-cut-to-get-uk-on-war-footing-sunak-admits/ar-AA1nB64j

Public services may be cut to get UK on ‘war footing’, Sunak admits

Wonder if this is cover for having a go at Bennies.

"Of course we don't want to slash benefits and public sector pensions but there's no choice if we are to defend against China/Russia/Iran/Rochdale"

Ah, the old war smokescreen to do the necessary.  Add it to climate change and the rest. 

Finance/economics has been a key driver for most wars.  We normally would have had a war by now to cleanse the system of their accumulated corruption and incompetence.  

Like I previously mentioned, the technocratic loves, often infatuated with fakery, think they can game/fake this one (war economy) by getting the "benefits" without an actual war.  

Probably not.  A virus seems to often end with a blow off top as it burns itself out.  Maybe most wars start this way.

PS:  I doubt they'll be after our metal railings this time round.

Edited April 25 by Harley

[spygirl]

19 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/cut-public-sector-pensions-pay-better-salary-lord-odonnell/

 

19 hours ago, Loki said:

https://archive.is/DMAVo

The lefties think that Bastard Tories are blocking pay rises for 'our NHS'

Its not. Its the Treasury.

The NHS pension is *THE* most expensive commitment or UKGOV.

Labour will have exactly the same problem.

 

 

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, Funn3r said:

Posted in the "Covid 1984" by @MrXxxx

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/public-services-may-be-cut-to-get-uk-on-war-footing-sunak-admits/ar-AA1nB64j

Public services may be cut to get UK on ‘war footing’, Sunak admits

Wonder if this is cover for having a go at Bennies.

"Of course we don't want to slash benefits and public sector pensions but there's no choice if we are to defend against China/Russia/Iran/Rochdale"

Good point/thought process, hadn't though about this!

[MrXxxx]

Anyone got UK miners?...well worth watching this morning as AAL have been offered a buy out by BHP.

Edited April 25 by MrXxxx

[Loki]

Only a short vid, emergency climate powers, macro implications 

 

Edited April 25 by Loki

[Onsamui]

10 hours ago, CannonFodder said:

 

Bit worrying if this catches hold, more talk about taxes on unrealised gains.

Truly, they will squeeze us till no blood is left.

https://watcher.guru/news/president-biden-calls-for-44-6-capital-gains-tax-rate

 

Well that will win him the next Election, not.

[Heart's Ease]

9 hours ago, Funn3r said:

Posted in the "Covid 1984" by @MrXxxx

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/public-services-may-be-cut-to-get-uk-on-war-footing-sunak-admits/ar-AA1nB64j

Public services may be cut to get UK on ‘war footing’, Sunak admits

Wonder if this is cover for having a go at Bennies.

"Of course we don't want to slash benefits and public sector pensions but there's no choice if we are to defend against China/Russia/Iran/Rochdale"

Ministry of defence accounting jiggery pokery for a bit of it and he's planning to slash 72000 civil service jobs for the rest.

Again something that won't happen because of Labour party. More electioneering.

[headrow]

Madness.

 

Anglo American PLC (LSE:AAL) has confirmed a shock bid approach from BHP Ltd.

Terms of the offer were not disclosed, though Anglo, valued at £29 billion, said the deal would require the demergers of its platinum and iron ore businesses.

Anglo called it an “unsolicited, non-binding and highly conditional” all-share buyout proposal.

"The board is currently reviewing this proposal with its advisers," investors were told, as it cautioned: "There can be no certainty that any offer will be made nor as to the terms on which any such offer might be made."

Under takeover rules, BHP, which is valued at just shy of £120 billion, has until 5pm on May 22 to lodge a formal offer.

If it goes ahead, the deal would be the biggest transaction in the sector since Glencore and Xstrata's £43 billion merger 11 years ago.

[spygirl]

5 minutes ago, headrow said:

Madness.

 

Anglo American PLC (LSE:AAL) has confirmed a shock bid approach from BHP Ltd.

Terms of the offer were not disclosed, though Anglo, valued at £29 billion, said the deal would require the demergers of its platinum and iron ore businesses.

Anglo called it an “unsolicited, non-binding and highly conditional” all-share buyout proposal.

"The board is currently reviewing this proposal with its advisers," investors were told, as it cautioned: "There can be no certainty that any offer will be made nor as to the terms on which any such offer might be made."

Under takeover rules, BHP, which is valued at just shy of £120 billion, has until 5pm on May 22 to lodge a formal offer.

If it goes ahead, the deal would be the biggest transaction in the sector since Glencore and Xstrata's £43 billion merger 11 years ago.

Desperation or hubris.

I dont this will happen.

If it does Id reckon it woudl end p like Wood groups.

This is BHP using the last bit of CHinky money to diversity.

Toughis ahead for Oz as Ch9nkyland moves from covering everything with concrete.

 

 

 

[baffledbyzirp]

29 minutes ago, Harley said:

Ah, the old war smokescreen to do the necessary.  Add it to climate change and the rest. 

Finance/economics has been a key driver for most wars.  We normally would have had a war by now to cleanse the system of their accumulated corruption and incompetence.  

Like I previously mentioned, the technocratic loves, often infatuated with fakery, think they can game/fake this one (war economy) by getting the "benefits" without an actual war.  

Probably not.  A virus seems to often end with a blow off top as it burns itself out.  Maybe most wars start this way.

PS:  I doubt they'll be after our metal railings this time round.

Harley re your comment about railings; iron railings were removed from many buildings and municipal spaces during the second world war to be melted down and used for battleships supposedly. In reality the palings around Royal Palaces and aristocratic estates were largely stored and resurrected after the war. The iron was not suitable for use in armaments and only 26% was melted down for use in defence (Who Stole Our Railings). It was stored in various stockpiles including an enormous site close to one of the London terminus stations, perhaps King's Cross. In order to deflect criticism from the public much was removed and dumped in the North Sea or buried in landfill after the War despite a lack of raw materials. Great optics! Just another case of the government preferring agitprop to reality and encouraging us all to buy into their whimsy.

[SpectrumFX]

20 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

Ministry of defence accounting jiggery pokery for a bit of it and he's planning to slash 72000 civil service jobs for the rest.

Again something that won't happen because of Labour party. More electioneering.

I think that's the third time that they've announced those civil service cuts to prepandemic staffing levels.

Arguing that it's a saving that will allow expenditure elsewhere is risable. That spending was uncontrolled growth that was all on the tick in the first place.

[Harley]

30 minutes ago, baffledbyzirp said:

Harley re your comment about railings; iron railings were removed from many buildings and municipal spaces during the second world war to be melted down and used for battleships supposedly

While I posted that, I had no clue about the whole story.  Amazing.  Our governments have been at this for a while.  The parallels (covid ppe dumps, lockdown, fake media, etc to "make it real",....)!  So this time round just change the name, the rest no doubt will stay the same!

Edited April 25 by Harley

[DurhamBorn]

16 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Desperation or hubris.

I dont this will happen.

If it does Id reckon it woudl end p like Wood groups.

This is BHP using the last bit of CHinky money to diversity.

Toughis ahead for Oz as Ch9nkyland moves from covering everything with concrete.

 

 

 

Copper and Potash.BHP have a huge a prospect for Potash in Canada,i suspect they want to expand and enter that.For the UK market the fact now big caps are being bid for means we have crossed the Rubicon.Again,we are losing all our tax producing,dividend producing companies thanks to bennies.People laugh at that,but its the exact reason.Polos cannot tax enough for bennies,4% structural deficit,so they force pension schemes into gilts so they can montetise them (financial repression) that money would of gone into UK equity,instead it goes into fat Shaz's ample belly.The UK market is likely undervalued by 50% or more if we include the ones forced down be idiot regulators.When Brown opened the bennie floodgates (at first paid for by destroying pensions by removing the dividend tax relief) he destroyed the UK economy.

The big platoforms like HL and II need to get their fingers out though and allow access to far more markets than they do now.UK investors need as many ways to diversify out of the UK as they can.

[DurhamBorn]

If the Anglo deal went through there is a good chance Sibanye merges with the platinum business,they own lots of the connecting mines and assets so would be the only likely ones who could cut costs with a merger.HMY pretty much consolidated the SA gold mining sector,Sibanye might do the same for PGMs.

[Pip321]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

Only a short vid, emergency climate powers, macro implications 

 

Global warming crisis, emergency powers etc….

Listening to this and whether (weather😉) or not these powers are enacted it makes me realise just how climate change agenda is false. 

I am happy to take as read, there is some truth in climate change but the governments I see do not have our best interests at heart….at all. Ie war, sanctions, monetary printing, spending money on shite instead of things we need, migration etc tv  

So knowing that what governments focus on is not for our benefit….it does beg the question, why the huge focus on virtue signalling and climate change. It’s not for the greater good….I know that  

Likely to ensure less reliance on Russia/ Middle East (because energy is power) and also a handy agenda they might use for control, power and for them to profit from it in the short term. 

Edited April 25 by Pip321

[Harley]

15 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Copper and Potash.BHP have a huge a prospect for Potash in Canada,i suspect they want to expand and enter that.For the UK market the fact now big caps are being bid for means we have crossed the Rubicon.Again,we are losing all our tax producing,dividend producing companies thanks to bennies.People laugh at that,but its the exact reason.Polos cannot tax enough for bennies,4% structural deficit,so they force pension schemes into gilts so they can montetise them (financial repression) that money would of gone into UK equity,instead it goes into fat Shaz's ample belly.The UK market is likely undervalued by 50% or more if we include the ones forced down be idiot regulators.When Brown opened the bennie floodgates (at first paid for by destroying pensions by removing the dividend tax relief) he destroyed the UK economy.

The big platoforms like HL and II need to get their fingers out though and allow access to far more markets than they do now.UK investors need as many ways to diversify out of the UK as they can.

Aka "Crowding Out".  Bad money (excessive revenue gilts) crowding out good money (productive investing).

 

Edited April 25 by Harley

[DurhamBorn]

38 minutes ago, Harley said:

Aka "Crowding Out".  Bad money (excessive revenue gilts) crowding out good money (productive investing).

 

I picked it up early,but missed how extreme it would be.I expected other investors to see the value gap.However i think the gap is so big its bringing in full out bids rather than on market.Due to interest rates the bids are share bids,but what these bids really say is here is a way to get out of the UK market.The destruction of the tax base due to the socialist policies is huge.The list of destructive policies is endless.

Edited April 25 by DurhamBorn

[Democorruptcy]

44 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The big platoforms like HL and II need to get their fingers out though and allow access to far more markets than they do now.UK investors need as many ways to diversify out of the UK as they can.

Our lot seem to be sending mixed messages about that. Last Autumn Hunt was trying to get Indian firms to list directly in London, then the March budget wanted more investment in UK firms, British ISA etc. At the moment UK asset managers have a captive audience via funds. Our asset managers share prices are down but their foreign funds have done OK such as  Abrdog's New India +34% and Jupidog's India +76% since Autumn 2022.

[nirvana]

another interesting example of why you BTFD and take notice OF 'higher lows'........go on, who is it? 

edit: bit of a giveaway, mentioned above lol

Edited April 25 by nirvana

[Democorruptcy]

14 minutes ago, nirvana said:

another interesting example of why you BTFD and take notice OF 'higher lows'........go on, who is it? 

edit: bit of a giveaway, mentioned above lol

AAL, in Feb one of the analyst firms was tipping it as a takeover target and I think the suggested price was similar to today.

[kibuc]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

The big platoforms like HL and II need to get their fingers out though and allow access to far more markets than they do now.UK investors need as many ways to diversify out of the UK as they can.

For now, they struggle to grant proper access even to markets that they seemingly have on offer.

Just last week I learned the hard way that Impact and Defiance both became "sell only" on II and won't be available for bid anymore. And I moved to II from HL last year mostly because pickings were even slimmer there - 1 in 3 names I was interested in at most.

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, kibuc said:

For now, they struggle to grant proper access even to markets that they seemingly have on offer.

Just last week I learned the hard way that Impact and Defiance both became "sell only" on II and won't be available for bid anymore. And I moved to II from HL last year mostly because pickings were even slimmer there - 1 in 3 names I was interested in at most.

HL dont even offer Australia or Hong Kong.Of course they want to funnel people into funds because they make much more,but they are missing a trick and getting ridiculous.I suspect we will see a merger in the sector at some point so they can open up more markets though.I think L&G or M&G would be looking over HL and ABRDN for instace.ABRDN and M&G would be a superb fit.

[reformed nice guy]

54 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Our lot seem to be sending mixed messages about that. Last Autumn Hunt was trying to get Indian firms to list directly in London, then the March budget wanted more investment in UK firms, British ISA etc. At the moment UK asset managers have a captive audience via funds. Our asset managers share prices are down but their foreign funds have done OK such as  Abrdog's New India +34% and Jupidog's India +76% since Autumn 2022.

A much fairer and easier way to stimulate investment would be to convert all the existing DB pensions to DC.

Give all of the public sector workers a lump sum in NEST and allow them to transfer if they like.

That way there would be more money floating around for equity investment

[Democorruptcy]

1 minute ago, reformed nice guy said:

A much fairer and easier way to stimulate investment would be to convert all the existing DB pensions to DC.

Give all of the public sector workers a lump sum in NEST and allow them to transfer if they like.

That way there would be more money floating around for equity investment

Might need to print a few quid for all those lumpy lump sums.