Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[spygirl]

2 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

https://foi.west-midlands.police.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/954_ATTACHMENT_01.pdf
 

£75k+ depending on constabulary. Don’t forget you have to train and kit specials (volunteers as well) that come and go on a whim. 

20% attrition rate, costs soon add up for every officer trained that stays the distance and actually keeps in the job.

 https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/police-forces-lose-20-of-officers-during-probation-5lnts6xb2

That's how much they claim it costs.

Work out what training they are given and you'll get a much lower figure.

Met says 59k

https://www.met.police.uk/foi-ai/metropolitan-police/disclosure-2020/february-2020/capita-cost-of-employing-a-police-officer/

And that includes coppers pay.

[The Grey Man]

My accounts require a pension meeting in the morning.

I think I will be biting my tongue on forecasts.

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

Covered bonds, which don't really exist beyond 15y terms.

I assume they intend to create a market for them, otherwise they are lending LOOONG term at a fixed rate, and borrowing at a shorter term to fund it. Kind of hard to beleive that would be allowed, and the fixed rate gaurantee for a borrower would be worthless in bankruptcy for the lender.

It all just sounds like a founders enrichment scheme to me.

[Lightscribe]

25 minutes ago, spygirl said:

That's how much they claim it costs.

Work out what training they are given and you'll get a much lower figure.

Met says 59k

https://www.met.police.uk/foi-ai/metropolitan-police/disclosure-2020/february-2020/capita-cost-of-employing-a-police-officer/

And that includes coppers pay.

That’s the direct cost and doesn’t include ‘other costs’ like support staff salaries etc. They’ve also reduced the training time compared to other forces and outsourced the main portion of officer training to a college run a 3rd party contractor (which was never going to end well) so they’re hardly at Hendon.

The attrition rate is increasing as well as using direct entry routes in which its even higher.

[Axeman123]

More detail on the CPI forecast for August, that I posted yesterday (This guy had it right last month)

[Yadda yadda yadda]

25 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

More detail on the CPI forecast for August, that I posted yesterday (This guy had it right last month)

Almost a quarter of the CPI is based on 'Owner's Equivalent Rent'. A completely made up figure called imputed rent in the UK. No-one is benefiting from this 'money'. No economic activity is occurring. The house already exists and has been paid for. Maintenance is paid for by the owner, that is actual economic activity. The money not spent on rent is spent elsewhere or saved. It is lunacy.

Do they double count imputed rent and mortgage payments? I see there is no separate accounting of mortgage payments. Do they come under Other Components - Finance?

CPI and GDP are massive cons.

PS if the prediction is right pivot inbound.

[UnconventionalWisdom]

Dalio has liquidated a lot of his emerging market holdings. 

https://www.gurufocus.com/news/1849970/alibabas-delisting-risk-proves-too-much-for-ray-dalio

 

Delisting risk. Do they know something about what's coming or is it just being prudent? 

What's the hive mind's thoughts? 

[JMD]

5 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

I've not lost hope on the UK, hopefully we will see some Bulldog spirit once people have empty stomachs and are freezing.

I bet many more people know about the WEF than they did 18 months ago.

Neil Oliver on GB news does a good job and must have woken millions up with his weekly monologues. NHS failures, Canadian truckers, farmers curiosity 'encouraged' to exit farming, and other topics have all been recently covered by him. Its encouraging that a broadcast channel is presenting these topics to the viewing public.

...And shameful that BBC doesn't even attempt serious reporting on these issues. I mean it's budget is well over £4billion pounds if include it's profit from worldwide commercial sales. With nearly 10% of that spent on news and current affairs - how exactly do they justify that kind of spend while operating such a poor service? 

[Bus Stop Boxer]

Concentrate....

[JMD]

6 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I think we have a consensus here, more or less, that if Truss doesn't do a Thatcher then UK PLC is fucked.

You'd imagine that would become clear within 6 months as she makes her cabinet appointments and policy choices.

My question is: if it's all bullshit and we are indeed on the Titanic then what do we do? Where is our lifeboat? 

I think we need to start thinking about it because that point is approaching rapidly.

For individual stocks, I think the @DurhamBorn idea of hedging against the risk of sterling collapse is a powerful one. So perhaps only hold UK companies that export/or is a potential on-shorer; companies that earn substantially from overseas markets especially Asia/South America to capitalise on their future potential relative currency outperformance compared to  the pound.         

[reformed nice guy]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Almost a quarter of the CPI is based on 'Owner's Equivalent Rent'. A completely made up figure called imputed rent in the UK. No-one is benefiting from this 'money'. No economic activity is occurring. The house already exists and has been paid for. Maintenance is paid for by the owner, that is actual economic activity. The money not spent on rent is spent elsewhere or saved. It is lunacy.

Do they double count imputed rent and mortgage payments? I see there is no separate accounting of mortgage payments. Do they come under Other Components - Finance?

CPI and GDP are massive cons.

PS if the prediction is right pivot inbound.

Everyone in the UK has at least one shoe. Most have at least two. Almost everyone wears at least one of their shoes a day.

They could buy a new shoe each day. Or they could rent them. Look at bowling alleys. They rent out shoes and often charge money for them.

Think of the GDP that is not being counted!

 

[Harley]

6 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Do yuo think those are near the bottom ?

VGOV and IBTL are the remains of my permanent portfolio allocation (25% bonds).  I'm undecided what to do with VGOV as the chart keeps offering promise.  I would dump at the right price.  I actually increased IBTL as a sterling hedge and because its chart had promise.  All based on the charts not on the yapping.  UTIP was offering a 5% yield so used to park money, again sterling hedged.  Now 7% after falling on its ex div date.

PS: TV may have the UTIP yield wrong?

[sancho panza]

11 hours ago, MightyTharg said:

 

Gross margin sounds good at 33%. What happens to get it down to 3% net profit?

Gross profit is sale price minus cost of goods.Operating profit then takes off stuff like rent,wages,leccy etc.Net profit is operating profit minus things like interest and taxes.

@Castlevania is a pro in that game,may be able to give a better answer.

3% net is bugger all when you heating bill has jsut doubled and (gvien there a high end retialer) your footfall has jsut taken a kicking.

Time will tell.We sold them around £3 in 2017 or 2018.Glad to see them go.

I think a lot of recent private equity buy outs are about to get mullered @spygirl who knows more on that than I do.

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Almost a quarter of the CPI is based on 'Owner's Equivalent Rent'. A completely made up figure called imputed rent in the UK. No-one is benefiting from this 'money'. No economic activity is occurring. The house already exists and has been paid for. Maintenance is paid for by the owner, that is actual economic activity. The money not spent on rent is spent elsewhere or saved. It is lunacy.

Do they double count imputed rent and mortgage payments? I see there is no separate accounting of mortgage payments. Do they come under Other Components - Finance?

CPI and GDP are massive cons.

PS if the prediction is right pivot inbound.

As I understand it,they don't include mortgage payments.RPI does but not CPIH

[Mapper]

2 hours ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Concentrate....

Good advice. I did, and I didn't hear a word they said.

[Lightscribe]

3 hours ago, JMD said:

...And shameful that BBC doesn't even attempt serious reporting on these issues. I mean it's budget is well over £4billion pounds if include it's profit from worldwide commercial sales. With nearly 10% of that spent on news and current affairs - how exactly do they justify that kind of spend while operating such a poor service? 

Why would you expect the BBC to report on anything impartially that’s against the agenda?

[sancho panza]

8 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

That’s the direct cost and doesn’t include ‘other costs’ like support staff salaries etc. They’ve also reduced the training time compared to other forces and outsourced the main portion of officer training to a college run a 3rd party contractor (which was never going to end well) so they’re hardly at Hendon.

The attrition rate is increasing as well as using direct entry routes in which its even higher.

I've seen shifts recently where a newly qualified Paramedic is out with a trainee  technician(technicians can give less drugs than a para) a few shifts out of training School and they've then been given a uni student who's a few shifts in.very stressful shift for the para.

No idea on the costs but trainee techs get 14 weeks at training School.

Constant churn now, when I joined 10 years seniority was nothing as there were loads of 20 or 30 years in crew room.on a night shift now, 5 years can win you the prize. 

Which is all OK until you get those 'come to jesus' moments @Harley referred to a few pages back and then they wonder why the average career now is less than 5 years.Paras get hollowed out mentally in that time if they're constantly crewed without much experience around them

[sancho panza]

The title says it all.look out below.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/18/interest-rates-must-hit-6pc-tame-inflation-says-founding-bank/

Interest rates must hit 6pc to tame inflation, says founding Bank of England rate-setter

Willem Buiter says policy will need to be "seriously restrictive" to reach 2pc target

[ThoughtCriminal]

Police, prisons, paramedics etc, all suffer from the same problem: not getting the right people anymore. Is it pay? Is it just the quality of the pool they're drawn from has diminished?

 

Anyone see the RAF bollocks this week? Going to pause recruitment of heterosexual white men until ethnics, gays and women catch up.

 

Who are the competent people that fly the planes and keep them up there? Straight white men.

 

They even sent a memo asking for the pilot that went to the Top Gun premiere not to be a straight white male.

 

You can get away with this bullshit for so long, then one day everything just breaks.

 

My boss in the prison service once made three women form a cell extraction team when a con had made weapons and threatened to kill first officer through the door. Took me off the shield, my usual role as I'm a big lump, and said "These fuckers get paid the same as him. They can do it".

 

Two started crying. They went in and he threw them out the cell, one by one, they literally went skidding across the floor of the wing like a cartoon. Point was made, so then we went in and put him through the wall.

 

Don't ever forget that this country isnt what you think it is. The whole facade can come down at any time.

 

Off topic? Maybe, but I'd argue it applies across the board. This is a tired, creaking country and the rot runs deep. Most of us are on the Right and patriotic so it's easy to overlook things.

 

I maybe didn't frame my point that well as it pisses me off just thinking about what's been done to this country.

 

As was just said by (I think) JMD, who is confident of having all of their eggs in the UK basket? My confidence in the UK making it out the other side of this turning point (as history will judge it) diminishes by the day.

 

I lean more and more to what DB said about having exposure to foreign earning stocks. 

[Axeman123]

@sancho panza @ThoughtCriminal

Just think what replacing that pool of 20-30 years experienced people would cost, effectively priceless. Same in all areas of life. These last few years of stupid hiring will take the country decades to recover from.

[Boon]

It must be pay at end of the day. At least it is for some of the other sectors facing staff shortages.

Bennies are the culprit, because the wage rise required to tempt them would be ridiculous. And I think the initial effect would just be to tempt existing working people from other existing jobs which transfers the staff shortage elsewhere.

[DurhamBorn]

 

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I've seen shifts recently where a newly qualified Paramedic is out with a trainee  technician(technicians can give less drugs than a para) a few shifts out of training School and they've then been given a uni student who's a few shifts in.very stressful shift for the para.

No idea on the costs but trainee techs get 14 weeks at training School.

Constant churn now, when I joined 10 years seniority was nothing as there were loads of 20 or 30 years in crew room.on a night shift now, 5 years can win you the prize. 

Which is all OK until you get those 'come to jesus' moments @Harley referred to a few pages back and then they wonder why the average career now is less than 5 years.Paras get hollowed out mentally in that time if they're constantly crewed without much experience around them

Its all down to state pensions in payment and bennies.Too much tax being paid by companies and workers so the reward to the workers and the owners of capital too low.The Scottish share a prime example.The government pushed their margin so low they couldnt invest.I worked out the difference to have a much stronger industry was around £12 a month on a bill,so then £120 instead of £108.Instead government chose to hammer them and give half the country not producing anything that saving.Now of course that £12 is £300 due to those actions.All consumption ends up destructive,the key is how much investment alongside it.We tilted for 20 years to where over 50% of the population was simply consuming,not producing.Imagine if 1/3 of the welfare budger and 1/3 of the in payment state pensions had gone into energy,water etc,£50 billion a year,or £1 trillion over the 20 years.Instead it was consumed and the only place the money used was saved was into houses and foreign countries where we bought the goods.

[ThoughtCriminal]

15 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

@sancho panza @ThoughtCriminal

Just think what replacing that pool of 20-30 years experienced people would cost, effectively priceless. Same in all areas of life. These last few years of stupid hiring will take the country decades to recover from.

Yup 

 

But I don't think we will recover. The problem is that whereas once we were governed by pragmatism, the thing that propelled us to governing over a third of the earth's service, we're now governed by ideology. 

 

Energy policy, ideology. Criminal justice, ideology. NHS, ideology. Foreign policy, ideology. The list goes on.

 

The West doesnt have a God given right to rule, we got to where we are on the back of our ancestors who were pragmatists. They'd be building nuclear power stations and opening coal mines like there's no tomorrow.

 

Our governing class are STILL talking about platitudes of "Green revolution, Green jobs etc". Even after seeing where it's got Germany they persist. It's a death cult.

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

9 minutes ago, Boon said:

It must be pay at end of the day. At least it is for some of the other sectors facing staff shortages.

Bennies are the culprit, because the wage rise required to tempt them would be ridiculous. And I think the initial effect would just be to tempt existing working people from other existing jobs which transfers the staff shortage elsewhere.

Its bennies and housing mostly in relation to pay.The other big one is making men pay for it through their tax,but not be able to earn enough to be more attractive than bennies to the women.It destroys the women in the end as well.I know lots of washed out 50 year old lonely women,now low bennies,only blokes they get are ones than use and abuse.The whole system is a disaster.Benefits are a disaster for everyone,including longer term those getting them.

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Yup 

 

But I don't think we will recover. The problem is that whereas once we were governed by pragmatism, the thing that propelled us to governing over a third of the earth's service, we're now governed by ideology. 

 

Energy policy, ideology. Criminal justice, ideology. NHS, ideology. Foreign policy, ideology. The list goes on.

 

The West doesnt have a God given right to rule, we got to where we are on the back of our ancestors who were pragmatists. They'd be building nuclear power stations and opening coal mines like there's no tomorrow.

 

Our governing class are STILL talking about platitudes of "Green revolution, Green jobs etc". Even after seeing where it's got Germany they persist. It's a death cult.

 

 

Exactly.300 years of coal under my feet.We have no energy crisis,we have a politician and liberal elite crisis destroying us.They should be sinking shafts here now,but with all the regs etc it would take years.My great grandads generation were sinking drifts around here in a few months.

My home town was one of the most important in the industrial revolution,we invented the railways,first passenger train ever left the town.Now its 80% bennies.Shocking.