Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[MrXxxx]

18 hours ago, stoobs said:

From https://news.sky.com/story/coal-power-stations-unlikely-to-provide-emergency-energy-top-up-next-winter-12834638

Basically they did as instructed and ran coal generation down. Then the government realised they'd cocked-up the baseload and ask them to keep a few units going. Now they've run out of road as it would need significant investment to extend again.

The comments around natural loss of experienced workforce are telling and will also apply as we restart industries requiring skills we abandoned long ago.

The problem is most UK governments 'drive' the economy the way most UK drivers drive their cars i.e. they don't realize there is a road beyond their bonnet...what we need is a few more 'motorcyclists'!

[leonardratso]

3 hours ago, Eventually Right said:

Worth watching, if people haven’t seen it already.

Never heard yellen speak before, never bothered to listen or read anything she had to say because i assumed it was bunk, thats the first time i listened to a video/discussion with her in it, and like reading zero hedge and daily mail articles i did it to see if i was correct in my assumption that it was complete dross, and i have to say i wasnt disappointed. Unbelieveable that such morons have so much power and yet the people challenging them are more with it and seem sharper. It smacks to me that america is running as an as is type of country, by that i mean it just carries on as if nothing much is wrong and can be ignored to take care of itself while people like this just occupy roles that actually are meaningless and yet their word is taken as lore, as in they know what they are talking about and can lead them out of problems.
I see similar at work/places i have worked where the management know virtually nothing of the business or its technicalities or where it really generates money and their decisions seem arbitrary and at odds with it, yet they rise and remain to wreak further and possibly fatal damage. I have zero respect and would even piss on them if they were burning.

[MrXxxx]

14 hours ago, GoneDark said:

Cut out shitty carbs would be my advice, and booze, but DB doesn't sound like a big boozer.  The pizza oven might needed to be ebayed. 

..and a bit more exercise i.e. 'rediscover' your youth/bit more shagging....I think @DurhamBorn will be happy with the latter, but not sure he will be so happy with the former [Pizza oven]!

[Pip321]

3 hours ago, Eventually Right said:

Worth watching, if people haven’t seen it already.

 

1 hour ago, SpectrumFX said:

That's mental.

It comes across that until that question was asked she hadn't considered at all the consequences of fully underwriting shit risky banks. Which is of course that in the end everybody's money is in shit risky banks because you've put all the other banks out of business.

And she's trying to avoid systematic risk?

 

15 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

Never heard yellen speak before, never bothered to listen or read anything she had to say because i assumed it was bunk, thats the first time i listened to a video/discussion with her in it, and like reading zero hedge and daily mail articles i did it to see if i was correct in my assumption that it was complete dross, and i have to say i wasnt disappointed. Unbelieveable that such morons have so much power and yet the people challenging them are more with it and seem sharper. It smacks to me that america is running as an as is type of country, by that i mean it just carries on as if nothing much is wrong and can be ignored to take care of itself while people like this just occupy roles that actually are meaningless and yet their word is taken as lore, as in they know what they are talking about and can lead them out of problems.
I see similar at work/places i have worked where the management know virtually nothing of the business or its technicalities or where it really generates money and their decisions seem arbitrary and at odds with it, yet they rise and remain to wreak further and possibly fatal damage. I have zero respect and would even piss on them if they were burning.

Fuck me, I almost fell asleep as she started to answer the first question by slowly repeating what had been asked.

Managed to keep awake then started to feel sorry for her…..really her kids should look after her more and make sure she isn’t out and about doing anything stupid like walking around the street in her dressing gown.

Couldn't agree more with @leonardratso we are seeing incompetence at a new level and I am fairly certain those pulling the strings are near….but out of sight.😉

Edited March 17, 2023 by Pip321

[HousePriceMania]

[Long time lurking]

A lesson in how to find support when it`s dwindling ?

 

[Noallegiance]

30 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

Never heard yellen speak before, never bothered to listen or read anything she had to say because i assumed it was bunk, thats the first time i listened to a video/discussion with her in it, and like reading zero hedge and daily mail articles i did it to see if i was correct in my assumption that it was complete dross, and i have to say i wasnt disappointed. Unbelieveable that such morons have so much power and yet the people challenging them are more with it and seem sharper. It smacks to me that america is running as an as is type of country, by that i mean it just carries on as if nothing much is wrong and can be ignored to take care of itself while people like this just occupy roles that actually are meaningless and yet their word is taken as lore, as in they know what they are talking about and can lead them out of problems.
I see similar at work/places i have worked where the management know virtually nothing of the business or its technicalities or where it really generates money and their decisions seem arbitrary and at odds with it, yet they rise and remain to wreak further and possibly fatal damage. I have zero respect and would even piss on them if they were burning.

Funny, cos I'd piss on her if she wasn't on fire.

[Cattle Prod]

19 hours ago, stoobs said:

From https://news.sky.com/story/coal-power-stations-unlikely-to-provide-emergency-energy-top-up-next-winter-12834638

Basically they did as instructed and ran coal generation down. Then the government realised they'd cocked-up the baseload and ask them to keep a few units going. Now they've run out of road as it would need significant investment to extend again.

The comments around natural loss of experienced workforce are telling and will also apply as we restart industries requiring skills we abandoned long ago.

We call this "The Great Crew Change" in our industy. A crew change is when you rotate a crew off a rig ever 2 weeks or whatever. The great crew change was supposed to be the big bubble of workers who started in the 70s starting to retire, and passing on the baton to the new generation. We've been talking about it for ten years. How to attract talent, get them mentors, knowledge transfer etc.

Well, it didn't happpen. The boomers retired all right, many of them in their 50s. Much like Hunt's hospital consultant, these guys have stuffed (or final salary) pensions, bought big houses cheap, long term stock awards etc. Many retired in their 50s, and are continuing to. Thing is ...there is no one to pass the baton on to. What young person, freshly brainwashed from UNI, would join the oil and gas industry? I've said it here before, but if you gave me a trillion dollars tomorrow, I really couldn't do very much to produce more oil and gas, not with natural decline running against me the whole time, and diminishing skills to execute.

There are some amzing wells drilled at Wytch farm onshore England. This is the biggest onshore oil field in Europe, which you never heard of. Believe it or not, it partially sits under Sandbanks in Dorset, some of the most expensive property in the UK. Most of them rich folks don't know that, as the clever engineers sat the derrick miles away, and managed to extend the wells for 10km horizontally to access all the oil. Edit: I have to emphasise what a phenomenal feat of engineering this was, world leading at the time, I can't remember if it was a record or not. Try and imagine drilling a 6 inch hole for 1 metre, then imagine it for ten thousand metres. How do you even turn the drill bit (not very easily). What happens if the drill bit gets stuck, how do you get it out (not very easily...). How do you aim it (try and trust your geologist ...not easy!). All this happening at something like a pressure of 5000 psi etc etc.

The facilities are surrounded by trees and blend in pretty well, you'd never know it was there. 

This field returned tens of billions of pounds to the Exchequer.

However, it couldn't be drilled today. A drilling engineer who worked on this field told me a while back that we simply don't have the experience or know how to execute such a well today. It simply wouldn't get signed off by the drilling manager, even if someone like me asked for it. The skills are gone, for good. And that is the tip of the iceberg. 

Outline of Wytch Farm (named after the farm the drill centre is on) in red:

Can anyone spot the giant oil field?

No? This is all you'll see if you zoom in and really go looking for it:

Its a beautiful part of the country, Poole Harbour is stunning. Who says we wreck the environment?! As I said, it just couldn't be done today. You need a hell of a lot of experience to make sure you don't mess up a very complicated well. We couldn't afford to spill one single barrel around there.

Edited March 17, 2023 by Cattle Prod

[Noallegiance]

2 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

We call this "The Great Crew Change" in our industy. A crew change is when you rotate a crew off a rig ever 2 weeks or whatever. The great crew change was supposed to be the big bubble of workers who started in the 70s starting to retire, and passing on the baton to the new generation. We've been talking about it for ten years. How to attract talent, get them mentors, knowledge transfer etc.

Well, it didn't happpen. The boomers retired all right, many of them in their 50s. Much like Hunt's hospital consultant, these guys have stuffed (or final salary) pensions, bought big houses cheap, long term stock awards etc. Many retired in their 50s, and are continuing to. Thing is ...there is no one to pass the baton on to. What young person, freshly brainwashed from UNI, would join the oil and gas industry? I've said it here before, but if you gave me a trillion dollars tomorrow, I really couldn't do very much to produce more oil and gas, not with natural decline running against me the whole time, and diminishing skills to execute.

There are some amzing wells drilled at Wytch farm onshore England. This is the biggest onshore oil field in Europe, which you never heard of. Believe it or not, it sits under Sandbanks in Dorset, some of the most expensive property in the UK. Most of them don't know that, as the clever engineers sat the derrick miles away, and managed to extend the wells for 10km horizontally to access all the oil. The facilities are surrounded by trees and blend in pretty well, you'd never know it was there. 

This field returned tens of billions of pounds to the Exchequer.

However, it couldn't be drilled today. A drilling engineer who worked on this field told me a while back that we simply don't have the experience or know how to execute such a well today. It simply wouldn't get signed off by the drilling manager, even if someone like me asked for it. The skills are gone, for good. And that is the tip of the iceberg. 

Outline of Wytch Farm (named after the farm the drill centre is on) in red:

Can anyone spot the giant oil field?

No? This is all you'll see if you zoom in and really go looking for it:

Its a beautiful part of the country, Poole Harbour is stunning. Who says we wreck the environment?! As I said, it just couldn't be done today. 

That's a genuine 'wow' post

[MrXxxx]

12 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think mine is shitty carbs and lack of exercise,im going to try to cut lots of carbs out the next few weeks.Funny enough i noticed days when i eat no bread but have wholewheat oats and yoghurt it seems to be lower.

Refined carbs are generally high GI [Glycemic Index], these make the blood sugar spike rapidly, and this results in high Insulin levels in the blood to 'manage' these sugars; Oats are medium GI, and with the fat from the yogurt the absorption impact/speed on blood sugar levels is reduce [slowed] further. These high insulin levels then reduce the blood sugar levels so much that you get the 'crash and burn' [rapid low blood sugar levels] that makes you want to eat again. High levels on insulin then down regulate [turn off] the body's ability to produce nitric oxide; nitric oxide allows flexibility in the arterial walls. Without this flexibility in the walls [think of a garden hose with reinforcing strands vs balloon] blood pressure cannot be varied [in this case reduced]; especially important as other hormones expressed during eating increase blood pressure.

Source [https://www.endocrineweb.com/conditions/diabetes/can-blood-sugar-affect-blood-pressure]

Anyway enough of this, let's get back to pizza ovens, or is it air fryers this year? :-)

Edited March 17, 2023 by MrXxxx

[leonardratso]

5 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Funny, cos I'd piss on her if she wasn't on fire.

im pretty sure shes soaked in her own piss already, so no need.

[MrXxxx]

13 hours ago, Stuey said:

The most prolific posters like @DurhamBorn do not know the difference between effect and affect, nor that would of could of should of make any sense. 

I have always found this a strange view point. It suggests that someone who has weak grammatical skills also possesses poor critical thinking, and vice versa. It's the quality of thought that matters, not necessarily how it is presented....unless of course you believe our political class are the epitome of quality decision making?!

Edited March 17, 2023 by MrXxxx

[MrXxxx]

6 hours ago, Stuey said:

Lose some win some 

So you are a [lucky?] gambler rather than a wise investor?...doesn't really support your argument though does it?

[HousePriceMania]

7 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

I have always found this a strange view point. It suggests that someone who has weak grammatical skills also possesses poor critical thinking, and vice versa. It's the quality of thought that matters, not necessarily how it it presented....unless of course you believe our political class are the epitome of quality decision making?!

Language is about communication.

Grammar is about snobbery

[MrXxxx]

4 hours ago, dnb24 said:

Doesn’t think we’ll go into recession- didn’t push her on why she said that, but said it’s not slowing down- it’s getting busier by the day.

I think you missed the most interesting part of your post not asking this question...can you ask her again?

[Lightly Toasted]

1 hour ago, SpectrumFX said:

That's mental.

It comes across that until that question was asked she hadn't considered at all the consequences of fully underwriting shit risky banks. Which is of course that in the end everybody's money is in shit risky banks because you've put all the other banks out of business.

And she's trying to avoid systematic risk?

It's creating a variant of Gresham's Law: bad banks drive out the good ones.

[MrXxxx]

4 hours ago, Eventually Right said:

Worth watching, if people haven’t seen it already.

The guy asking the question 'nailed it'...and Yellen tried to 'fudge' the answer.

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

'Four Part Coalition', you haven't got a country or a real government if you have a four party stitch-up.

Is four [The Netherlands] any worse than two [The UK]?!

[Noallegiance]

Thank fuck they sorted out this problem yesterday. Phew.

[harp]

33 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

We call this "The Great Crew Change" in our industy. A crew change is when you rotate a crew off a rig ever 2 weeks or whatever. The great crew change was supposed to be the big bubble of workers who started in the 70s starting to retire, and passing on the baton to the new generation. We've been talking about it for ten years. How to attract talent, get them mentors, knowledge transfer etc.

Well, it didn't happpen. The boomers retired all right, many of them in their 50s. Much like Hunt's hospital consultant, these guys have stuffed (or final salary) pensions, bought big houses cheap, long term stock awards etc. Many retired in their 50s, and are continuing to. Thing is ...there is no one to pass the baton on to. What young person, freshly brainwashed from UNI, would join the oil and gas industry? I've said it here before, but if you gave me a trillion dollars tomorrow, I really couldn't do very much to produce more oil and gas, not with natural decline running against me the whole time, and diminishing skills to execute.

There are some amzing wells drilled at Wytch farm onshore England. This is the biggest onshore oil field in Europe, which you never heard of. Believe it or not, it partially sits under Sandbanks in Dorset, some of the most expensive property in the UK. Most of them rich folks don't know that, as the clever engineers sat the derrick miles away, and managed to extend the wells for 10km horizontally to access all the oil. Edit: I have to emphasise what a phenomenal feat of engineering this was, world leading at the time, I can't remember if it was a record or not. Try and imagine drilling a 6 inch hole for 1 metre, then imagine it for ten thousand metres. How do you even turn the drill bit (not very easily). What happens if the drill bit gets stuck, how do you get it out (not very easily...). How do you aim it (try and trust your geologist ...not easy!). All this happening at something like a pressure of 5000 psi etc etc.

The facilities are surrounded by trees and blend in pretty well, you'd never know it was there. 

This field returned tens of billions of pounds to the Exchequer.

However, it couldn't be drilled today. A drilling engineer who worked on this field told me a while back that we simply don't have the experience or know how to execute such a well today. It simply wouldn't get signed off by the drilling manager, even if someone like me asked for it. The skills are gone, for good. And that is the tip of the iceberg. 

Outline of Wytch Farm (named after the farm the drill centre is on) in red:

Can anyone spot the giant oil field?

No? This is all you'll see if you zoom in and really go looking for it:

Its a beautiful part of the country, Poole Harbour is stunning. Who says we wreck the environment?! As I said, it just couldn't be done today. You need a hell of a lot of experience to make sure you don't mess up a very complicated well. We couldn't afford to spill one single barrel around there.

 Took a boat trip out of Poole harbour last year on stunning summers day. The guide told us about the oil field/site. You’d have absolutely no idea it was even there. 

[Noallegiance]

...and this.

[CannonFodder]

 

Saudi finding a new friend - not putting its hand in pocket to sort out bank problems of old friend.

New friend gives peace with iran and yemen and cash gifts - loan wont be repaid. It a gift voucher for china goods.

Old friend wants cheap oil and money for banks then throws tantrums.

 

 

 

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

and i have to say i wasnt disappointed. Unbelieveable that such morons have so much power and yet the people challenging them are more with it and seem sharper. It smacks to me that america is running as an as is type of country, by that i mean it just carries on as if nothing much is wrong and can be ignored to take care of itself while people like this just occupy roles that actually are meaningless and yet their word is taken as lore, as in they know what they are talking about and can lead them out of problems.

..or portrayed as a 'useful' idiot by those who are really in power whilst they 'make away like bandits' with the money?

[reformed nice guy]

Gold is now about 3.5% above its 2020 covid panic peak

[MrXxxx]

45 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Well, it didn't happpen. The boomers retired all right, many of them in their 50s. Much like Hunt's hospital consultant, these guys have stuffed (or final salary) pensions, bought big houses cheap, long term stock awards etc. Many retired in their 50s, and are continuing to. Thing is ...there is no one to pass the baton on to. What young person, freshly brainwashed from UNI, would join the oil and gas industry? I've said it here before, but if you gave me a trillion dollars tomorrow, I really couldn't do very much to produce more oil and gas, not with natural decline running against me the whole time, and diminishing skills to execute.

So do you feel this is where the likes of PFC and WG. will/are struggling, and why they may not be a future fossil fuel 'play'?